More Les Miles thoughts, Auburn's woes, SEC Power Poll

by GeauxTigers on Oct 23, 2007 12:23 AM CDT in Football

I am still amazed that the near unanimity of opinion that Les Miles was an idiot or at best reckless for the last play call at Auburn. Yet in the pundits' mad rush to jump on the bandwagon to slam Les for making such a "risky" call, almost NONE of them took the time - in our Tivo-rich society - to rewind the play and pause it when the ball hits Byrd in the hands, and see that there were indeed four seconds left. Go ahead, check it out yourself. (Also, note that there's also been some confusion about Les' postgame comment that there was 18 seconds left when the play was called...please note the clock at the precise moment the huddle broke. Thanks for your time!)

Anyway, does a tipped ball REALLY take four full seconds to hit the ground? Do yourself a favor. Grab a football. Throw it as high up in the air as you possibly can. See how long it takes to land. Might be a little longer than four seconds. Six, maybe? And you probably got that ball a good forty or fifty feet in the air, at least. So you're telling me a tipped - or even bobbled - ball takes four seconds to hit the turf from three feet up? Give me - or give Les Miles, rather - a goddamn break. (Incidentally, that brings up a GREAT comparison a fellow Louisiana blogger made: Les Miles = Ronald Reagan?)

Anyway, let's just have a recap, shall we?

Mark May:

Yes, it worked out, but I thought Les Miles lost his mind at the end of that game against Auburn. You don't cut it that close. If the defender from Auburn had tipped that ball, the game would have been over and everyone at LSU would have been skewering Les from here until eternity. Kick the field goal!

CFN's Matt Zemek (full disclosure, I think CFN is the best non-blogger source for CFB writing available, but they too deserve to be criticized from time to time):

Yet, [Miles] presided over a situation in which Matt Flynn received the center snap with eight seconds left on a play that started at the Auburn 22. If seven seconds from the 10 is the accepted second-half standard, eight seconds from the 22 is cutting things mighty close. This isn't guts. It's astonishing neglect and breathtaking stupidity.

Louisiana's very own Glenn Guilbeau:

WHAT was Les Miles thinking with that last play of the game Saturday night?
WHAT if LSU receiver Demetrius Byrd juggles the ball for a couple of seconds and
doesn't catch it like his teammate Brandon LaFell did earlier in the game?

Here's WHAT. There would have been an EARTHQUAKE and a FIRE, and I don't think Les Miles would have survived no matter what type of MAGIC wand he may have. He would have been crucified nationally and locally, and believe me Nick
Saban would be virtually back in the LSU Nation's graces.

But Byrd made a spectacular touchdown catch of an expertly thrown ball by quarterback Matt Flynn with one second on the clock, and LSU beat Auburn 30-24 to remain in the BCS national championship hunt at No. 3.

But WHAT if Byrd doesn't make that catch and time runs out? He did drop one in the second quarter in Auburn territory to kill a drive.

WHAT if time runs out and Miles is sitting there a timeout under his hat and Colt David ready to kick a 39-yard field goal after he had already made field goals of 29, 26 and 33 yards?

The AP's Ralph Russo, on LSUBeat.com (using "reckless" in the headline, as well):

If the ball had been tipped away, it very well could've been the last play of the game.

LSU would've never gotten a chance to kick that potential winning field goal.

The excellent writer OutsideTheSidelines at Roll Bama Roll:

A big win, and the dumbest coach I've ever seen. This is a good team, but I really don't think they can go through Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Florida again to get to New Orleans. I'll drop them one spot this week due to ASU's unbeaten season being extended, and because I figure coaching stupidity costs them one game. An LSU friend called the decision for a deep pass at the end, "The worst coaching decision I've seen since Curley Hallman against Auburn in 1994."

A brief blurb in a long recap from SMQ:

[W]hether LSU intended to do so or not, its eggs really were all in the basket of Matt Flynn's final lob...

CBS' Dennis Dodd comes close, as he actually acknowledges the ball hit Byrd in the hands with four seconds left, yet STILL deludes himself into thinking this call was the ballgame:

Never mind eschewing the obvious field goal, if Flynn's pass is a) knocked down; b) bobbled or c) tipped in any manner whatsoever, the game -- and the season in many ways -- is over.

ONE voice of reason in the madness. CFN's Richard Cirminiello:

The decision by Les Miles to go for the jugular with a timeout left in the quiver was gutsy, memorable, and borderline insane. It very likely, however, would not have prevented LSU from getting a crack at a field goal after all. While everyone is feeding you the fact that the Tigers scored with one tick left in regulation, that's technically not accurate. Watch the tape. Byrd is on his back in the rear of the end zone with the ball secured with four seconds left on the clock. He rolls through the end zone at three seconds, and is standing up at two ticks, saluting the frenzied home crowd. The clock then moves to one second, but that was long after the play had ended. Although Miles' call was curious and up for a ton of scrutiny, even if Byrd briefly bobbled the ball, a review almost certainly would have added time to the clock, giving Colt David an opportunity to kick for the tie.

Come on, everyone. Hit the damn replay button. I'm fairly sure most of you have a Tivo.

Thanks to Jackson Jambalaya for compiling many of the links I used above.

Auburn offensive lineman Chaz Ramsey is getting a lot of heat - deservedly so - for a nasty, illegal chop block on Glenn Dorsey that didn't even get flagged. As my cowriter noted below, Tommy Tuberville was man enough to apologize for it. Not, of course, man enough to suspend Ramsey for what he dubbed an unintentional play.

Let's examine why Ramsey may have been incensed with Dorsey:

Two quarters later, we get this garbage:

Two dates to mark, Tiger fans:

Saturday, September 20, 2008 (LSU at Auburn)
Saturday, October 24, 2009 (Auburn returns to LSU)

Chaz is a freshman. There's no way that was unintentional. Give that classless bastard hell. (Of course, we Tiger fans wait with bated breath for Chaz's personal apology, which I'm SURE is forthcoming!)

There have been some (1) complaints (2) regarding the officiating in the Auburn game. All I have to say is, this looks like pass interference to me:

LSU @ Auburn, 2006

How's that saying go? Ahh yes: What goes around...

My roommate pointed out to me today that it's been a woeful year for Auburn fans cheering on their alums in the NFL, what with Cadillac Williams lost for the year with a knee injury, and today's announcement of Ronnie Brown's torn ACL sidelining him for the season. Kenny Irons had the same thing happen in the preseason, and Rudi Johnson's sprained groin continues to keep him out of Bengals games. Yikes. At least the football gods gave Auburn fans that awesome Florida victory.

My SEC Power Poll for this week:

LSU - Amazing that in the national swings of emotion regarding Les Miles' coaching acumen in the last seventeen days, it's LSU fans who've emerged as the most levelheaded about it all. Shame on you, college football world!
Florida - And just like that, a trip to Atlanta is not just possible but probable.
Auburn - Despite the loss, they're playing about as well as anyone right now.
Kentucky - Acquitted themselves well in defeat. Likely no SEC Championship this year for the `Cats but regardless of the finish they'll have exceeded all expectations.
Alabama - So that win won't do anything for the hype machine that'll be in full gear when LSU comes to town in two weeks!
South Carolina - Just when Steve Spurrier was on the cusp of going back to his old rip-on-other-schools ways, he serves one up for the rest of the SEC in losing to lowly Vandy.
Tennessee - Just wow.
Arkansas - Nothing like playing Ole Miss to get the spirits up.
Georgia - Every reason to believe the season is just going to get worse this week with Florida coming up.
Vanderbilt - Thought about ranking them fifth out of pure courtesy for that win, but nah. Good job though, you Commie bastards!
Mississippi State - After facing Kentucky, Bama, and Arkansas the next three weeks, 4-2 will seem a distant memory.
Ole Miss - No matter where they rank on this list, the girls will always be hot in Oxford.

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Right on

This post is so right on, on both the pass at the end of the game, and the Dorsey thing too. Chaz Ramsey better watch out, because karma will take care of him. My guess? He doesn't even play against LSU next year because he is rehabbing his completely destroyed knee.

by pelican on Oct 23, 2007 4:07 AM CDT reply actions

On bad calls

I was kind of mystified reading those links about the bad calls. It seemed the analysis was a bit one sided there, as you allude to. The one legitimate gripe might be the spot on the Murphy run. I thought he was a bit short. But I doubt that was a game changer. The Tigers could pick up a 4th and a foot with their eyes closed.

As for the Hester touchdown, why do people assume that the refs used the replay to decide to pick up the flag? It seems more likely to me that they decided to pick up the flag first, then used the replay to determine whether or not Hester crossed the goal line. Is the criticism of that play based on this perceived sequence of decisions? Was it obvious that the flag should have held there? I'm not entirely clear on the 7 men on the line of scrimmage rule. On the replay, it looked to me that they had 7 on the line.

As for balanced analysis, nice shot of the clear pass interference on Doucet. Also unmentioned in the analysis you link to was the clear, and crucial, 15 yard penalty that should have been called on the Dorsey chop block. The biased NY Times blog analysis of that play: "Dorsey left the game in the third quarter with an injured right leg after he was caught awkwardly in a pile at the line of scrimmage." Can't get much lamer than that.

Another call that appeared questionable to me was the personal foul on Steltz for apparently leading with his head on a hit. Watching the replay, I was left wondering how that was a foul. He didn't jump at him like a torpedo. It looked to me like he was pretty upright there. I really couldn't see how else he could have gone at they guy. Does anyone have any thoughts on that call?

by crepuscular @ And The Valley Shook on Oct 23, 2007 7:59 AM CDT reply actions

Hmm...

I was at the game and haven't watched it again, just the final minutes, so I don't recall the Steltz personal foul. I'll look at that again and see.

On the Murphy run, there's absolutely zero reason for any fans to gripe. Tuberville absolutely could have challenged that call had he wanted. Auburn fans can blame him, not the refs, for that. Yes, he has to make the decision to gamble with one of his two remaining timeouts. But as we've seen over and over again, this is a game of odds. Play when it's in your favor. If the spot was that egregiously bad, the odds were well in his favor.

I haven't examined the Hester TD/7 men on the LOS issue at all...I need to rewatch that as well.

by GeauxTigers on Oct 23, 2007 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Ok

If you see the plays in question and have a take on them, I'd like to hear. The personal foul on Steltz, I'm pretty sure, happened near the beginning of Auburn's late 4th quarter touchdown drive. I think it was setting up to be 3rd and very long (at least 10).

by crepuscular @ And The Valley Shook on Oct 23, 2007 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions

regarding the last play of the game

clearly the entire country is wrong and/or out to disparage lsu/les miles. OR maybe it really was a moronic play call that just happened to work out for the best for lsu fans. you defend the play call, but what would be written on this blog if aubbie's d-back doesn't face guard and he picks off a pass that flynn threw to the wrong (inside) shoulder??? or if flynn gets sacked (which seems to be fairly common), changing a very makeable field goal a longshot???

by gerry dorsey on Oct 23, 2007 10:45 AM CDT reply actions

To answer your question

If the ball had been picked, I'd have probably been livid at the playcall, and I'd have been wrong.

Gerry, I'm the last guy on the planet who's going to be a conspiracy theorist. In my SEC Power poll at the bottom of the post above, my comment that LSU fans have been the most levelheaded through the swings of national perception of Miles should tell you that I think the praise that was heaped on him after the Florida game was a little excessive, as well.

I'm just pointing out the facts.

Just look at the odds. You think of all the things that could go wrong, but LSU quarterbacks have thrown 233 passes this year, with 6 INTs. That's roughly worked out to a 2.5% chance of an INT on any given throw. Auburn has picked off 9 passes in 269 opposing attempts. That's a slightly higher percentage. Let's take it even further and triple those odds, and say there was a 10% chance of an INT (which is VERY high, especially given the one-on-one coverage they noted on Byrd).

You say we perhaps should have given the ball to a running back to grind out an extra couple yards. Given that that's ~~what the terrorists would have wanted us to do~~ what Auburn was expecting, odds are we wouldn't have gotten much. View the play again, they had SIX men at the line of scrimmage. So at best, we get three or four yards and David's still got to kick a 35 or 36 yarder.

As for a sack, note that we had a fullback (Jordan) AND Hester (former fullback, great blocking tailback) there for protection. LSU QBs have been sacked 19 times in 252 dropbacks (dropbacks = total attempts + sacks), or roughly a 7% rate. Some of that came when Flynn's ankle was nagging him, and I assure you some of that came when we were in an empty backfield. But just for kicks, let's bump that to 10%.

So we have 20% odds of something really bad happening like an INT or sack on that play.

Colt David is 8-12 on field goals from 30+ yards this year, or a 67% success rate (not including that desperation 56 yarder against Kentucky at the buzzer). Or let's just use his kicks in the 30s he's still 8 for 10 this year, or an 80% rate. That means there was a 20% chance of failure to be reasonably expected on such a kick. I think it's absolutely valid to up those odds of failure even more for the fact that it's a potential game winner at the buzzer.

So to recap: 20% chance of something bad on the pass play. Greater than 20% chance of something bad on the ensuing field goal.

Look, it's human nature to focus on the "What IFs" regardless of the true probabilities. Anyone can conceive of all the downside scenarios without really thinking through what the odds really are. Les was fully aware of those odds. A simple and unbiased assessment of the true probabilities of various outcomes seems to me to make it blindingly clear that Les made the right call.

by GeauxTigers on Oct 23, 2007 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Odds of something bad happening

there are probably even quite a bit lower.

I know you're giving conservative odds there, but I think there's something else worth mentioning. Now, none of us can exactly be inside the head of Matt Flynn on that play; but, as a fifth year senior who patiently waited for his chance to play, I have to believe that he was well aware of the situation. The chance of his being sacked there is minuscule because he would quickly throw the ball away if a defender got loose. Plus, he wasn't exactly camping out there in the pocket--he got rid of the ball immediately. As for the pass itself, I have to believe he throws the ball away if Byrd isn't getting that little bit of separation he needs. I think it would still be pretty conservative to say that there was a 10% chance of something bad happening on that play.

by crepuscular @ And The Valley Shook on Oct 23, 2007 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions

thats why they play the games

if things always went the way they worked out on paper, we wouldn't be talking about what a bizarre season this has been. however, the reality is they don't. so while your math all works out, i guarantee you a significant amount of tiger nation was yelling "nooooooooo!!!" as that play was unfolding...and with good reason. for now, i will agree to disagree. i will sit back and wait for les' luck to run out (b/c the odds are against him) and for the lsu faithful to crucify him when some of these gambles fail to work out. god forbid it happen in tuscaloosa.

by gerry dorsey on Oct 23, 2007 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions

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