Two Touchdowns

by Poseur on Oct 23, 2008 11:30 AM CDT Comment 10 comments

Two touchdowns this season are killing LSU in the polls and in the public's perception. The polls are all about perception, and the perception is that LSU is a mediocre team that got crushed in their one big game. Which is a reasonable interpretation to be honest, but Ohio State got annihilated by USC and they are still mentioned as a title contender while LSU gets little mention as the same.

Part of that is because it’s become the common wisdom that LSU struggled against Mississippi State and South Carolina. Neither were marquee games, so it’s doubtful a lot of people watched a lot of either game unless they were truly interested in the teams playing specifically. It didn’t get the casual fan, or the casual pollster. So they load up the internet and see these scores:

LSU 34, MSU 24
LSU 24, USC 17

And it’s become commonplace to say LSU struggled against Mississippi State and South Carolina. Against USC, that is true. LSU needed to rally to win, but we’ll get to that in a second. Against MSU, it’s not true. LSU won the game handily. LSU has a 27-10 lead midway through the 3^rd quarter. LSU had a 34-17 lead less than 5 minutes to play. But then, LSU allowed a late touchdown. So instead of the game looking like a pretty easy win, though not exactly a blowout, it instead looked like LSU struggled with MSU. And LSU’s “struggle” has been used like a club to beat the team. All because of a meaningless touchdown with two minutes left and the game essentially over. But it’s now an accepted truism that LSU struggled with the Bulldogs.

After the Florida game, LSU needed a big win over South Carolina. And let’s face it, things didn’t go well in that first half. LSU went into the locker room down 17-10 and the season was on the brink. So LSU came out and then absolutely dominated the second half and won 24-17. However, with the ball deep in USC territory late in the game, LSU didn’t punch in the touchdown, and instead ran plays to kill clock. So the perception is a tight game in doubt to the final seconds, instead of a comfortable 31-17 win, which it very easily could have been had Miles tried to score.

Admittedly, the seven point margin is a bit more honest reflection of the game. It was a hard fought win, and 14 points would have been the largest lead of the game. That said, Bama’s getting credit for blowing out Georgia, when in fact UGa made it a 10 point game in the end. If we flip those halves in the LSU-USC game, LSU goes into the locker ahead comfortably 21-0 and the USC rally is viewed as a futile comeback effort. Yeah, I know “if’s” are a stupid game. But it does illustrate the point of perception. It’s not just what you accomplish, it’s how you accomplish it. Would LSU be a better team if they don’t allow that late TD to Mississippi State and score the late TD against USC? Of course not.

But LSU would probably be perceived differently. All because of two meaningless touchdowns.

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Amen, brother

You could write this same post about Georgia.

by AuditDawg on Oct 23, 2008 12:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Would be an issue if LSU runs the table

My first reaction was to say “so what – if LSU beats Georgia, Alabama and wins the SECCG, it won’t matter”. But the perception issue will come in to play whether LSU, Florida or Georgia ends up in a position to be a BCS title game team.

USC (that other one) can finish out their easy schedule and be the top-ranked one-loss team in the BCS, guaranteed. Commentators are already saying if Penn State gets past Ohio State, they’re pretty much guaranteed to go undefeated. And that would be your BCS title game unless we see Texas and/or Alabama go undefeated. And if Alabama, LSU, Florida or Georgia win the SEC with one loss, they would be demonstrably (i.e. shown in computer rankings) more accomplished than USC and maybe even an undefeated Penn State.

This may be the year that USC’s whining about missing the 03 title game and getting the BCS firmly in the grip of biased humans pays off for them.

by Cap'n Ken on Oct 23, 2008 12:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

who cares

what the polls say right now. the tigahs still control their own destiny in the west…and if you win the west you’re right where you want to be.

if you’re going to be completely honest about that state game, you might want to mention christian ducre dropping a sure td pass in the second half.

by gerry dorsey on Oct 23, 2008 1:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Polls

I want to not care. But polls DO matter in football, which is the real problem. In fact, the Coaches’ Poll and the Harris Poll determine the BCS teams. And for LSU to climb into the national title picture, not only does LSU need to win games, but they need the perception of the team to change. LSU would have to leapfrog teams like USC. AND LSU is not even mentioned as a title contender despite having an almost identical resume to Ohio St, who is in the conversation (Saturday’s game of course, could render this whole thing moot).

But there was not a single moment during the MSU game I was nervous. Not one second passed in which I thought, “hey. MSU might win this game.” It wasn’t a blowout, but it also was not a game in which the LSU faithful were on pins and needles. It was a fairly comforable, solid win. And it has not been portrayed that way.

South Carolina was a game in which I thought LSU was going to lose, until the fourth quarter. It was a close game throughout, even with the second half domination.

Yes, MSU dropped a sure TD pass. Against Auburn, Lee gave away a TD. Against USC, a late turnover changed the complexion as well. I’m not counting any of those because they were events during the run of play. The late TD’s in those games however, had no impact on the final outcome other than how it looked to the casaul observor who didn’t watch. I do think that is a fundamental difference. And it’s a good point about UGa, who is being punished in the polls for not winning by big enough margins. Georgia is getting demerits for not looking pretty.

It’s not really a point about LSU or Georgia. It’s a point about the system we have in place, which is absolutely asinine.

by Poseur on Oct 23, 2008 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i hate the system

as much as anyone, and i agree the polls do matter, but they don’t matter on octobter 23rd. and a td is a td. you may not have ever thought the state game was in doubt, but it was never really put to rest either.

i also don’t think lsu fans should be whining about polls or a system that handed a bcs invite to their 2 loss team last year. you could have easily been watching ohio state playing any of about a half dozen other teams.

by gerry dorsey on Oct 24, 2008 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If not us, then who?

Actually, I think LSU fans should be leading the charge against the BCS. It’s an absolutely awful system, and if we’re the ones talking about how awful of a system is, it can’t be dismissed as whining. We’ve benefited from the BCS more than any other team. That doesn’t make it a good system. The BCS was a terrible system in 2003 and it’s a terrible system now. If an LSU fan can’t call it a lousy sytem even with the two titles it has brought us, who can? Who can say it’s a crappy system and not be called a whiner?

I loathe how any criticism of something is immediate classified as whining. I even clarified the post that it’s not about LSU or Georgia, it’s about the system. I’m using LSU as an example this season, but it’s not the interesting part. It’s just a jumping off point to talk about the larger point about how perception is shaped and influences who will eventually play for the title.

And the polls now do matter because one of the biggest factors in the rankings is inertia.

by Poseur on Oct 24, 2008 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let me just say this...

By this point in the season last year, I had already bought my SEC Championship tickets. That’s how good of a team we knew we had. This year, I can’t even confidently say we are going to Atlanta, much less the NC so who cares about the polls?

Let’s get one more thing straight here. LSU has vastly received the benefit of the doubt twice from the BCS. If we get “screwed” this year, who cares? Let’s not turn into some whiny Jawja fans who think they deserve to be in the Championship game every time they have a good season. There are two spots for the BCS CG. Right now, we don’t look deserving of those spots, and the polls reflect that. If we win out, avenging our loss to UF in the SEC CG it will be hard to keep us out, and frankly I’ll be disappointed if we are left out, but in the end, we’d still have benefited from the BCS more than often than not. And at this point, winning out looks highly unlikely.

by LSU Jonno on Oct 24, 2008 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

to be honest,

i think the tigers’ ranking is pretty fair; in fact, i think they get the benefit of the doubt with the pollsters more often than not.

They’re probably better than Boise State and Utah, but I can’t complain about a national ranking between 9 and 14; that seems fair.

Then 'twas the Roman, now 'tis I.

by Man Mountain on Oct 23, 2008 9:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Amen to LSU Jonno and Man Mountain

The win against Auburn is looking worse each week. Right now the South Carolina win is the only one that can be considered even a moderate quality win. For all Poseur’s complaints about the MSU win never really being in doubt, they’re a 2-5 team at this point.

If we beat Georgia we can start to complain about our ranking, but right now I think it’s generous to include us in the top 15. Most of that is holdover from last year’s team and the fact that there’s a gaggle of one loss and undefeated mid-major/Big East teams immediately behind us. Our brand is holding us up right now, not the quality of our wins. The teams we’ve beaten are a combined 16 – 21.

by The Bengal on Oct 24, 2008 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs