OU, Texas, and the BlogPoll

by Poseur on Dec 1, 2008 7:21 PM CST Comment 7 comments

It seems it is the right of every football blogger and talking head to weigh in on the Big XII FUBAR, so please indulge me. I know that no one from Texas or Oklahoma cares what a bunch of LSU fans think. But, opinions and assholes and all that…

There is a three-way tie in the Big 12 South. It is not a head-to-head tie. If it was, it would clearly be Texas over OU. But it’s not. So the Big 12 has a series of tiebreakers and it eventually reaches BCS ranking, which is a stupid tiebreaker but it’s not my rule. Texas’ real gripe isn’t with the pollsters or the computers, it is with the Big 12 who created such an asinine tiebreaker.

Honestly, the best tiebreaker after head-to-head (all 1-1) and record vs. common opponents (all 5-0) is the strength of conference schedule. Those 7-1 marks aren’t equal. Texas had to play Mizzou, Kansas, and Colorado. Tech played Kansas, KSU, and Nebraska. OU played Kansas, KSU, and Nebraska as well. Believe it or not, that works out to the same record of North opponents. I’d give Texas the nod by virtue of playing the North champ, but I’m not sure how that rule would be written. But the rule is the rule: BCS standings.

And the BCS is not a two-way tie between Texas and OU. I’d look at all of the one-loss BCS conference teams plus Utah as one tier. And I rank teams on two variables: who I think would win and on resume. And resume voting for me weighs one factor above all else: who did you beat? Here are the quality wins over bowl eligible teams of each of the contenders for #2 behind Bama:

OKLAHOMA: TCU, Cincinnati, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St
TEXAS: Oklahoma, Mizzou, Oklahoma St
TEXAS TECH: Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma St
FLORIDA: LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida St
USC: Ohio St, Oregon, Arizona, Cal, Notre Dame
PENN ST: Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan St
UTAH: Air Force, Oregon St, TCU, BYU

First off, who else thinks it’s funny Air Force is a better win for Utah than Michigan?

Some things jump out: Penn St didn’t play ANYBODY. They ducked both Minnesota and Northwestern, the other two bowl eligible Big Ten teams. Utah actually has a pretty good resume. USC’s wins outside of Ohio St aren’t that special. None of Florida’s wins are that great, really. Texas only beat three bowl eligible teams, and their quality wins don't look all that different from Texas Tech's.

But what really jumps out is how much better OU’s resume is than everyone else. TCU has one of the best defenses in the country and might be the best team in the Mountian West. If they play Utah 100 times, they probably win 60 of them. Unfortunately for them, the real one was one of the 40. Cincinnati won the Big East and OU beat them when Cincy still had a healthy QB. Nebraska went 8-4. Okie St is 9-3. They beat a one-loss team. Their only loss is to a one-loss team.

I’m all for head-to-head to break a tie, but there simply isn’t a tie. It’s not really that close in my eyes. As far as ranking these teams in a poll, not thinking about breaking a tie in the division, it’s clear to me that OU has the best overall resume. Which is why I ranked OU ahead of Texas. Now the BlogPoll doesn’t count for the BCS, but hopefully this gives you insight into creating a ballot. The problem is not with the poll, the problem is using the poll to break a tie in the Big 12 North

I can’t justify voting Texas ahead of OU despite my personal belief they should win the Big 12 South by virtue of beating Mizzou. The problem is not the BCS (well, there are plenty of problems with the BCS but this isn’t one of them), it is the big 12 using the BCS to break the tie.

Without further ado, the rest of my BlogPoll after the jump:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama	--
2	Oklahoma	1
3	Florida	1
4	Texas	--
5	Penn State	--
6	Southern Cal	--
7	Utah	1
8	Texas Tech	1
9	Boise State	--
10	Ohio State	--
11	TCU	--
12	Georgia Tech	5
13	Cincinnati	2
14	Oklahoma State	2
15	Boston College	3
16	Georgia	3
17	Michigan State	3
18	Ball State	3
19	Pittsburgh	3
20	Northwestern	3
21	Missouri	7
22	Oregon	4
23	Florida State	7
24	West Virginia	--
25	Mississippi	--

Dropped Out: Oregon State (#19).

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Comments

My problem with using...

…strength of schedule is that it’s still subjective. I prefer tie-breakers that come via on the field results. My suggestion was using the aggregate point differential among the games of the tied teams.

Texas Tech beat Texas (6) but lost to Oklahoma (-44) for a total of -38
Texas beat Oklahoma (10) but lost to Texas Tech (-6) for a total of 4
Oklahoma beat Texas Tech (44) but lost to Texas (-10) for a total of +34

Oklahoma had the best aggregate result in the two games so I’d give them the nod based on that. Might seem kind of weird, but that’s how they do it in soccer. Of course, I’d also like to see ties re-instituted (I hate overtime) so what do I know? :)

After reading over the various divisional tie breakers in the different conferences, I was stunned by how stupid most of them are.

RollBamaRoll.com

by Nico2.0 on Dec 2, 2008 3:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Texas over OU, Please

First, your absolutely right that out priniciple gripe is with the Big 12 tie breaker. Second, there is absolutely a plausible case for ranking OU ahead of Texas based on OOC schedule strength, the shutdown of Tech and the decisive win at OSU. However, the case for Texas does seem stronger to me.

PB over at BON makes the comprehensive case very well in his Blog Poll post, and what follows is a very cliffnoty version of that, but in evaluating the schedules one might give greater consideration to Kansas which we beat by a larger magin (after really pullin back in the 3rd quarter) than OU did in Norman. Given that Bob Stoops isn’t one for holding back and that Kansas is a fairly decent team (vide Missouri this weekend). Further the timing of the games with us playing Tech at the end of a historically difficult 4 game stretch and OU getting Tech at home after an easy stretch for them but a challanging one for the Raiders should be considered. In this context, out Head-to-Head on a neutral field would seem to point to placing Texas ahead of OU.

On a power ranking basis I am absolutely convinced that we could beat OU agains, although it would be a very difficult game. It is very close and I can’t claim sufficient objectivity to make aline or to say how many times we would win out of a hundred, although I’m quite certain neither team would win 60 or perhaps even 55.

Also, NOTRE DAME as a quality win for USC?!?!?

marshalld

by duras on Dec 2, 2008 10:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

It's all relative, duras.

Notre Dame is about as quality of a win for USC as we are for Florida. Poseur did state that USC’s wins outside of Ohio St. were nothing special, it should be noted.

I don’t disagree that Texas is getting the short end here…do you think we’ll see a change in the way the Big 12 decides tiebreakers in future seasons?

by artiger on Dec 2, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Commisioner...

…is already talking about it and its unimaginable that there won’t be a change. As Nico says above all of the tie breakers are pretty screwed up but ours is particularly absurd.

Yes, you guys sucked this year but on your worst day Notre Dame would have a very hard time getting with 2 or even 3 TD of you. Moreover, the one game you actually showed up for was Bama (anything approaching that intensity, as you know only too well, would certainly have led to wins in your last two games). It was close but you outplayed them and it was primarily Lee’s understandable though still appaling mistakes that cost you. Further, I would say that you guys were probably Bama’s second best win after Georgia. The environment WAS hostile, you came to play but Alabama held up under the adverse circumstances and was able to win. (Which, OU, incidentally has not done, and which we quite conspicously did in both our game with them and even at Tech although we ultimately fell a little short).

marshalld

by duras on Dec 2, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Although I certainly agree with you on “The BCS is not the problem. Well, not in this case.” I think there’s a bigger problem: ties happen.

Texas got a raw deal. But if Texas were in the Big 12 title game, it would be just as true to say that OU got a raw deal. The real issue is that there are two teams and neither has clearly differentiated itself as better. You have to pick a tiebreaker. And sometimes that tiebreaker will pick the better team, and sometimes not. For example, suppose OSU would have beaten OU. Then the vast majority of people would have said that Texas was better than Tech, yet the Raiders would be headed to KC. (Also, the segment of Texas people who have been idiotically whining for nothing to matter but one single head-to-head game would have suddenly reversed course in hilarious fashion, or at least would have gotten what they wished for. But I’d like to think that that group is a loud minority, like the one Tiger fans have recently chewed out.)

*bump* U *set* OF *spike* OOOOOOOOOO!

by AllSaintsDay on Dec 2, 2008 12:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think you’ve hit a major point: no matter who got left out of the Big 12 title game was gonna get screwed. Texas Tech has a case as well, though not as strong given their recent beatdown. No matter what, either OU or UT was gonna get the shaft. And here’s the greatest weakness of the BCS: if it were a respected measuring stick, people would be more likely to accept it as the tiebreaker. It has no credibility and thus no one accepts the outcome, not just the fans of the team losing out.

I also want to apologize for not counting Kansas or Rice as quality wins for Texas. I must have gotten distracted by something shiny. Kansas has a winning record and is bowl eligible and meet my criteria (as does Notre Dame). Rice is 9-3 and also counts as a quality win. It is important to note that I don’t just count the number of wins, I’m just saying these are the only wins which I place any value on for the evaluation of a team. Wins over Rice and Kansas help Texas, but not much. It certainly creates separation from Texas Tech, to avoid a head to head tiebreak.

To the UT fan bringing up Kansas, I’d point out one could make the same comparison with Oklahoma St only a) OSU is a better team and b) it works out to OU’s favor. Though I am sympathetic to UT’s cause.

by Poseur on Dec 2, 2008 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs