Miles And Fourth Down

by Poseur on Aug 21, 2008 10:20 PM CDT in Football

College coaches are a conservative lot. They like total control, they don’t like surprises, and sometimes, it seems they prefer losing in a way in which they will not be criticized than winning in a risky fashion. Coaches are an incredibly risk-averse group.

Les Miles is perhaps the only person who gets criticized for implementing a successful strategy. Pittman has made its his personal mission to show that the Auburn TD pass wasn’t some crazy call, so let’s move on to the next successful move that Miles gets criticized for: his fourth down strategy.

Let me say that again: I will now defend Miles from the criticism he receives for doing things that work. What a great country. Like I said, coaches are a risk-averse group.

Last year, LSU went 13 for 16 on 4^th downs. It’s become fashionable to say LSU got lucky last year, and obviously, there is some luck in winning the national title with two losses. And that’s a valid criticism, but it’s taken too far when LSU gets called lucky for converting a bunch of 4^th downs. It’s not luck to employ a strategy which works. And it’s not like the calls were crazy. Breaking down those 16 4^th down attempts:

6 were late fourth quarter or later attempts in which almost any coach would go for it.
2 were fake kicks.
4 were in LSU territory, the worst field position being LSU’s own 44.
2 were in blowouts and were attempts to run clock
11 were 2 yards or less to go
4 were in inside the opponent’s 10 yard line
4 times Hester got the call on 4^th down
2 times he actually converted

Let’s say those last two numbers again, Hester went 2 for 4 when he got a carry on 4^th down. Just thought that was odd.

Without going through each and every 4^th down call (which I thought about doing – you’ve been spared), Miles actually made a decision to go for it on fourth only 8 times. LSU got it 7 times. Which went a long way to winning a title.

A lot of those calls turned the game. South Carolina. Florida. Tennessee. Ole Miss. Four wins, all of which turned on an early 4^th down call (Florida, of course, would require more 4^th down conversions in the 4^th quarter, but people forget Perrilloux scoring a TD on 4^th and goal in the 2^nd quarter).

The point here is that Miles made calculated risks. And honestly, there’s not much risk in going for it on fourth and 2 from the opponent’s 30 yard line. It’s a long field goal and you have just as good odds getting the first as hitting the field goal. And if you miss out on the first down, it’s not like Miles didn’t have one of the best defenses in the country to bail him out if the call didn’t work. Oh, that’s right, he did.

So why the criticism? He took the risks, which really weren’t that great, and the calls worked. Yet Miles still gets criticized. Can someone explain this to me?

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Good Ideas Are Often Overlooked

Don’t the statistical analysts who look at the cold, hard numbers of football universally say that coaches should go for it on 4th down much more often than they do? If you have 4th and 1, your chances of making it are rather good. If you’re in a part of the field and a part of the game where it wouldn’t be disastrous to give up the ball, you probably should really think about going for it.

Last year, I think we just had the personnel to do 4th downs, although are you sure about Hester’s numbers? I could swear he had more than 2 against Florida alone. Maybe it just seems like it because of all the media hype.

I would say at least half of the 4th down calls we made were either when we were very close to the goal line and wanted to get a touchdown instead of a field goal (a touchdown is worth more than 2 field goals, after all), or when we were behind late and absolutely needed that 4th down (Hester’s first against Florida is no doubt of this variety, as are the two that ended the games against Kentucky and Arkansas, and the pass to Doucet against Alabama).

What gets me about people saying Miles is a wild man when it comes to 4th down is that there is more to Miles’ history than just the 2007 season. Miles’ 4th down strategy was not all that unconventional in 2005 or 2006. I think last year, Miles just came to the conclusion that he had the personnel to take more risks on 4th down and he did it. Successfully, as you observe.

Richard Pittman

by Richard Pittman on Aug 22, 2008 6:43 AM CDT 0 recs

If you guys don't read Tuesday Morning QB on ESPN.com you should.

He writes mostly about the NFL, and his articles come out on Tuesdays (big surprise huh!).
TMQ
This is an article he wrote last year about punting. His formula is pretty agressive, but he makes a good point.

Poseur, the point that you make here:

it seems [coaches] prefer losing in a way in which they will not be criticized than winning in a risky fashion.

is dead on. Actually TMQ writes articles about this subject all the time as well. Case in point is the AU pass attempt. Miles could have let Colt kick the field goal (of which he was only 2/6 on the year from that yardage) and if Colt would have missed it, Miles would have taken no blame. Instead, Miles put the pressure on his shoulders by going for othe pass. I respect that.

by LSU Jonno on Aug 22, 2008 7:39 AM CDT 0 recs

Oh, off the subject...

Richard,

What are the chances that you could set up a CFB pick’em for us here at ATVS? If our website won’t handle it, maybe we just start a group at like ESPN or Yahoo or something?

by LSU Jonno on Aug 22, 2008 8:02 AM CDT 0 recs

As much as I dislike Pete Carrol

I always respected him for going for it on 4th down in that national title game. I think it certainly shows a lot of confidence in your players.

I think most other SEC fans who criticize Miles, would contend that his calls are not calculated, but simply blind luck. I disagree with that assertion, but I can see where it comes from. Miles doesn’t seem to have a problem w/ letting the rest of the SEC think he is a bumbling fool.

by Zandor435 on Aug 22, 2008 8:31 AM CDT 0 recs

I think Miles fosters his reputation as a bumbling fool because it serves his purposes. He’s not, just look at his record wherever he’s gone, but it never hurts to have the other side underestimate you.

And I do agree with Pete Carroll going for it on fourth as well. You have supposedly the Greatest Offense of All-Time, you should be able to pick up two yards with the game on the line. And besides, with the way VY was playing in that game, Texas could have started with the ball on their own 1 yard line and I still believe he would have driven down the field and scored a touchdown.

Speaking of gutsy calls, the greatest one was Tom Osbourne going for two in the 1984 Orange Bowl against Miami when Nebraska would have won a title with a tie. They didn’t get it and lost 31-30, but I always loved that call: your either the champ or you ain’t. Play to win.

TMQ is a good column, even if it has sort of run its course. New ideas, Gregg. But the ideas about punting are from Pete Palmer’s the hidden Game of Football. If you’ve never read any of Palmer’s stuff on football or baseball, go to amazon.com right now and order some.

by Poseur on Aug 22, 2008 9:40 AM CDT 0 recs

TMQ/punting

Gregg Easterbrook actually titles some of his entries “Preposterous Punt”

A lot of his reasoning comes from the idea that the average play gains about five yards, so when coaches punt on 4th and 2 or 3 to go, they’re actually hurting themselves by giving up possession and sending a bad message to their team. I think that sort of ignores the fact that not every play is an average play, but I do like the idea of fewer punts.

This has been taken to its absolute extreme by a high school coach who wrote into him one day. His team NEVER punts at all.

I think Miles would argue that he has confidence in his players and that it’s no big deal. I think it puts a lot more pressure on the defense, since they know that they may have to make one more stop than they’d planned on. And the more you do it, the less pressure there is on the offense each time. That’s my hunch, anyway.

by dan iqua on Aug 22, 2008 10:40 AM CDT 0 recs

Great point poseur

Critics of Miles always frame the situation as an either / or. Either kick a field goal or go for the touchdown… and Miles went for the fingertip catch corner of the endzone option. It was really more of a both / and. We can both go for a td and a field goal. Pittman has helped make it very clear there was adequate time. Miles and Crowton may be unorthodox but they aren’t overly risky. I bet more coaches will start to copy Miles approach… which leads to poseur’s point. A financial advisor will never get fired for buying a bunch of google or ge or exxon even if they tank, but they might get fired if they buy a bunch of some relatively unknown company and they tank. Not because the unknown company was a risker bet, but because the other companies are perceived as safe because they are common. The unknown company may in fact be a safer buy but that probably doesnt matter.

Over the past 10-15 years, it seems that there is more of a trend for coaches to go for it on 4th down. Miles is just at the tip of that trend. I remember when it was shocking to see anyone go for it on forth down under almost any circumstance. Now, not so much.

Thanks for digging into the details of this 4th down thing. Its the only way to get any clarity on the subject. One question that I have is that is Miles 7 for 8 or 13 for 16 or somewhere in between. You said lsu was 13 for 16 and miles was 7 for 8. Whats the difference there?I know there was some fake kicks and what not but I’m a little confused and wasn’t able to back into the number from some of the other stats. Also, on fourth down, did we run behind herman johnson and ciron?

by nepomo on Aug 22, 2008 11:09 AM CDT 0 recs

We went 13 for 16. But 6 of those were not really decisions, they were late-game, any coach in the world would go for it kind of plays. So I took those out (But we went 5 for 6, only missing the Kentucky double OT 4th down). And 2 were just plays to run out the clock in blowout wins (we went 1 for 2).

That left 8 times in which Miles decided to go for it on fourth down. Those are the 8 times we should judge Miles on, as those were the risk-taking decisions. And in those situations, he went 7 for 8.

by Poseur on Aug 22, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up 0 recs

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