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Another of My Occasional Diatribes Against a College Football Playoff

The NCAA has done such an incredibly poor job of selling their non-playoff-format post-season that the the media tends to treat it as a given that everyone wants a college football playoff.  I do not want a playoff, and now that the football season is over and the basketball season is near its midpoint, it's time to discuss why I think a playoff would be bad for college football.

Back when I was writing for GeauxTuscaloosa, I wrote an article railing against a playoff, and re-reading it now I think it's still a pretty accurate representation of my views.  I'll quote the most articulate parts:

I don't want to see the quest for the national championship beat the conference races into submission. If there had been a 4-team playoff last year [2007], Georgia would have been in it under most scenarios, relegating the conference championship Georgia failed to win to a simple consolation prize for the winner, just like it is in basketball.

Quick, who won the Big East Conference in basketball in 2008? See, you don't know, and it just happened two months ago. In football, it was West Virginia.* Oklahoma won the Big 12; USC won the Pac-10; Ohio State won the Big 10, LSU won the SEC; and Virginia Tech won the ACC. That's right off the top of my head.** Why don't you know who won the Big East in basketball? Because it isn't important. No one cares who wins the conferences in basketball. All that matters is the tournament. I don't want to see college football become like that.

With a playoff, the SEC becomes about as important as the NFC South, the winner of which is important only in that it gets an automatic bid to the playoffs. Do we want our conferences to become just geographically convenient divisions of a much more important whole? Do we want the conferences to be mainly about ease of scheduling? Or do we want our conference to continue to maintain a strong identity? Do we want the SEC to continue to mean something.

...

Why does college football need to be just like every other sport? Every sport has a tournament at the end to declare a champion. College football is unique in having a post-season that is entirely unlike a tournament, and darn-it, I like it that way. Making college football like every other sport would, well, make it just like every other sport. It would take away the specialness of college football. Do we want college football to become just another tournament-based sport?

The NCAA basketball tournament is a wonderful event.  For basketball.  It's a great 3+ week spectacular of amateur basketball, as good as any sporting event on the planet other than the World Cup, which only happens every four years.  I wouldn't change a thing about it.

But football does not need one of its own.  While we all acknowledge that the NCAA Tournament is outstanding, and that there would be great interest in a football version, let's look at what we've sacrificed for the basketball tournament.  The basketball regular season has been rendered virtually meaningless.  It starts in mid-November and few people even care until the meat of the schedule gets there.  Even the really good early-season matchups are essentially scrimmages for most teams.

Don't believe me?  Well, do you remember when North Carolina played Notre Dame on November 26?  It was an out-of-conference matchup of two top 10 teams.  North Carolina pummeled Notre Dame.  Still don't remember it?  Well, neither do I.  It was a glorified scrimmage.  Notre Dame was pounded, but they've come back just fine, and barring an unexpected late season collapse, they are comfortably in the tournament.  Their bad loss has ultimately meant nothing.

Do you remember an OOC football game between Clemson and Bama?  I remember it.  It set the tone for the season for both Clemson and Bama.  One game.  One season ruined, and another set on a path to near-greatness.  That's football.  Everything is meaningful.  There are no glorified scrimmages.

In basketball, the entire regular season means nothing except for how it determines placement in the tournament and seeding within the tournament.  No one remembers who won the conferences and even fewer remember who won the conference tournaments, unless an upstart came in a won an automatic bid it never would have gotten otherwise (good job Georgia).  In basketball, the conferences are just geographic subdivisions used for the ease of scheduling and travel.

I would not want to see the football regular season come down to a simple determination of who makes it into a tournament.  I don't want the conference race to be a meaningless sideshow.  I don't want the early season to become a series of scrimmages.  Almost every proposal I have ever seen for a playoff would do these things, and because the NCAA has done such a poor job is marketing their own ideas, people don't even seem to realize what they'd be giving up to get a tournament.  The model is right in front of our faces.  The basketball regular season is a long and pointless endeavour, except insofar as how it determines what happens in the tournament.  In basketball, it's worth it because the tournament is a tradition.  It would be a shame to see the same thing happen to football, though.

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Basketball and Football are terrible comparissons.

In football, every game is important because so few games are played. In basketball, much like baseball, individual games lose their meaning, because there are so many more games that are played. Basketball is much more about an entire season than it is a single game. (I will say however, that you are correct that the format of the playoff makes standing out during the regular season much less important than it could be.)

But to my larger point, comparing a hypothetical football playoff to the NCAA basketball conference is the classic strawman. There are wild assumptions made regarding a playoff.

Like it or not, college football has a playoff. It has a two team playoff. Would expanding this really negatively impact conference championships? Maybe in some cases. For instance, it probably would devalue the Big 12 this year, or the SEC last year. But you could also say it would settle the debate once and for all, considering neither of those teams even got a chance to play in the conference championship game.

Beyond this, for every one instance where a conference is devalued, 5 other conferences increase the value of their championship. Honestly, who gives a crap whether Cinci or VT win their conferences. It means nothing. Penn State and USC are playing the Rose Bowl. Oh well. But with a playoff, all these conference championships actually mean something.

Now, again, all this is dependent on the fact that a playoff stays rather small. When you expand so that the top 2-3 teams from each BCS conference make the playoff, the regular season loses importance across the board.

But with a right playoff, the overall importance of the regular season could increase. Currently, you could argue that many games mean nothing. Creating a playoff could change that, if done right.

In most playoff that are in place, roughly 1/3 of the teams in the league make the playoff. Roughly half of BCS conference schools make the NCAA basketball tourney. In the NFL, over 1/3 of the teams make the playoff.

If college football were to adopt an 8 team playoff, less than 7% of the teams would make the playoff. In fact, if only BCS schools made the playoffs, and there were 8 teams, only 12.3% of the available teams would have made it to the playoff. This is a significant difference.

Playoffs can be balanced so that the regular season holds importance, but just because it doesn’t happen for basketball, doesn’t mean that will happen for football.

--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog

by jtlight on Jan 12, 2009 1:59 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I agree with jtlight, you seem to have compiled the most fallacious arguments against a playoff into one place.

“It would devalue the regular season” is a little silly. The NCAA BB regular season is devalued not because of the tourney, but because they play so many damn games. If football played 30+ games in a season, none of them would matter as much, regardless of the season finale.

College basketball invites 64 teams, that’s nearly 1-in-5. For college football to reach that level, it would need to be more than 20 teams in the playoff. Not going to happen. A playoff system in which the only invitees are conference champions would eliminate virtually all of the arguments presented above. “Who was the Big East champion? The team that made it into the playoffs.”

Comparing the SEC to the NFC South is just silly. In the NFL, nearly half of the teams make the playoffs. Are you expecting to see a 64-team slate in CFB?

None of these arguments work because they can all be solved by a well-designed system. Do I trust the NCAA to design it well? No, but it couldn’t be any worse than the crap we have now.

by PeteHoliday on Jan 12, 2009 4:46 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Except that even in the aggregate the basketball regular season means nothing

Yes, individual games mean less because there are more of them, but even so if you decide that one football game is roughly the equivalent of 3 basketball games, it still doesn’t add up. The whole season doesn’t add up. All the season means to a basketball team is a) did you make the tournament? and b) at what seeding?

If you follow basketball, you know this to be true. No one gives a crap about the basketball regular season unless your team fails to make the tournament. No matter how bad your regular season is, it can be saved by sneaking into the tournament and winning a couple games there (unless you’re a Duke or someone who needs to win more than a couple tournament games to have a successful season).

Richard Pittman

by Richard Pittman on Jan 12, 2009 6:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think there are probably good arguments to be made against a playoff, but I think you shoot yourself in the foot by relying too much on an inchoate comparison to basketball.

Have you not considered a playoff system that is dependent upon conference championships? If a playoff were exclusively limited to conference champs, not only would it negate your argument, it would actually make the playoff superior to the BCS and the old Bowl system, both of which, could theoretically yield a non-conference champion national champion.

Your arguments center around “do you remember who won” what. Try to consider perspectives other than your own—a football fan from the South. Elsewhere people don’t pay as much attention to college football as you do. Where I live, in California, the sports talk radio morons routinely talk about 2003—the year USC split the championship with Oklahoma—they just don’t pay attention like we do. I work with a guy who went to Ohio State who makes the same mistake. Yeah, USC and OSU fans don’t pay attention to college football like we do. On the east coast most people north of South Carolina care more about basketball. If you were from a basketball school like UCLA, Kansas, Michigan St., or Syracuse, you might think differently, even considering the fact that there are so many more basketball games to compete for your memory.

by uberschuck on Jan 12, 2009 9:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you mean

in 2003, the year USC split the championship with LSU.

I'm proud of my damn strong football team. Have a great day!

by Mikethetiger on Jan 13, 2009 3:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No, I typed that correctly. People in SoCal talk about 2003 as the year USC split the national championship with Oklahoma. Not only are they pompous, but they have bad memories too.

by uberschuck on Jan 13, 2009 11:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're 100% right

In college basketball, the only things that matter before the tourney are conference tournaments (which by themselves further relegate the regular season meaningless) that make last cases for bids, and the two UNC/Duke games. Nothing else is worth watching.

It’s telling that pro-playoff advocates talk about “the right system” yet hesitate on telling you what that system is.

For example, in a 8 team format like jtlight mentioned a team like Georgia last year is actually rewarded for having done slightly worse in the regular season. That is, if Georgia had beat Tennessee then it would have had to play an extra game, endangering its playoff position if LSU had beaten them and dropped them to a 3 loss team. As it stood Georgia did get a free ride to the Sugar Bowl but was dismissed by the voters to the national title game they were good enough to play in.

 Conference championship games in general become a bad idea as they allow the chance for the 2nd best team to look worse and be less likely to make a “wild card” bid for the national title, instead now where it allows a team to improve its resume as a way to boost itself into the title game (see LSU 2007 & Florida 2008). Without title games, round-robin style regular season schedules (like in the PAC-10) start to look better to determine a fairer best regular season record, which is nice unless you’re the SEC.

You’d also have problems accounting for teams like Utah and Notre Dame, who aren’t in BCS conferences. Notre Dame of course can pull a higher ranking than most because of pedigree meaning they’re more likely to earn a wild card bid than others, giving them an unfair advantage. This is the same problem that exists in the current system.

The bottom line is that college involves too many teams for a national championship to be done well. It should stay how it is: something on the side that’s a nice bonus to seasons.

I'm proud of my damn strong football team. Have a great day!

by Mikethetiger on Jan 12, 2009 7:49 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

An 8 team playoff with 6 automatic births for BCS championships and 2 at-large bid, with at-large bids being determined by a selection committee. (How’s that for hesitation)

As far the hypothetical with the failings of a playoff, this is no reason not to implement some form of a playoff. For every problem with a playoff, there are many, many more with the current system. Do we want to get the best system, or just stick with what we have because we’re used to it? It’s all about comparative advantage, not looking for perfection (which is not possible).

--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog

by jtlight on Jan 12, 2009 9:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not bad for hesitation

But a 8 team field has a lot of problems. That’s another 3 weeks (unless you’re making one of those weeks the current BCS bowl week) added onto the season. When are you playing these extra weeks? Some of these kids have the not so insignificant goal of getting an education so they can feed their family after football is done.

I don’t think a selection committee is all that better either. The selection committee gets away with it in college basketball and baseball because the field is so large that no one’s going to be all that miffed about the 35th team in the nation getting neglected. However, with your system there are going to be some unhappy people. This year for instance we’d have left out Utah & Texas Tech to Bama & Texas, probably relegating the Utes to a much lower bowl, despite Utah & Tech being better ranked than Cincy and VT. You also don’t escape the diminishing of the regular season, as Alabama could have simply rested most of its starters against Auburn and lost in order to prep for the title game the way we consistently see in playoff leagues.

Regardless, I think the question of bowls v. playoffs depends on what college football means to you. If you like the traditions and student athletes and rivalries, then the bowl system is better, even if it needs to be tinkered with a lot, because the national championship just isn’t the most important thing. However, if you’re ESPN and you think the national title is really the only thing that matters, then a playoff makes perfect sense.

I'm proud of my damn strong football team. Have a great day!

by Mikethetiger on Jan 13, 2009 3:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

In order to keep the playoff system as fair as possible, I think it’s necessary to eliminate the idea of “BCS Conferences”. If you give automatic berths to conference champions, the best way to do it would be to give berths to the 6 highest ranked conference champions. You can’t pass over a team like Utah for Cincinnati or VT.

by Amerikon on Jan 13, 2009 12:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Like Richard said, leave it as it is....

Because I like all the disagreements, conversations and arguments each year. You can’t get that kind of entertainment in any other sport. Let it go and enjoy what we have. College football is fine just like it is.

by Totally Spoil on Jan 13, 2009 7:21 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Concur, concur, concur...

Football has a playoff, it’s called the NFL. Playoffs reward teams that get hot at the end of the year. The BCS rewards teams for their entire season. Who was the best team in the NFL last year? The Patriots or the Giants?

Guys, like it or not, this is what makes college football great. I could live with a plus one, but even THAT can get complicated. I think I’ve actually seen 3 or 4 different ways to implement a plus one.

Just to play devils advocate, yes a playoff would devalue the regular season for some teams, but it would also greatly increase the value of the regular season for some teams. Look at the ACC for example. The vast majority of that conference would have been still been in the middle “theoretical playoff” this year until the last week or two of the season. So sure Bama could have rested their players in the Iron Bowl, but the ACC would be fighting it out for their automatic playoff bid until the last week of the season.

There is no right answer here.

by LSU Jonno on Jan 13, 2009 8:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"There is no right answer here."

This is the key thing to keep in mind.

There are people who like the controversy of “champion” by voting. There are people who like the idea of settling it on the field for a true champion. You’re never going to satisfy them both. And the “find some way to name ‘the top 2’ teams, and have them play” that we currently have is a compromise between the two, which satisfies nobody. (Except the ones making money from it.)
And any system that you have is going to upset some people. You can make your system kind of upset everybody (like the BCS), or you can make it only upset some people, but upset them a lot (8 team playoff would upset some, a return to “who is the media promoting this year” would upset others).

Welcome to the Pit!

by AllSaintsDay on Jan 13, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A championship system is needed.

A plus one format adds another game but does not address the underlying problems of the BCS system. Teams near the cut off feel left out, a plus one just pushes this issue down a level. Undefeated teams ranked lower than #4 are still excluded. Why would the university presidents accept a proposal that does not address the perceived problems?

Playoffs are too rigid to meet the unique needs of college football and a fixed number of participants will always produce disagreement at the cutoff. The more teams that are included the greater the magnitude of disagreement at the cutoff; therefore a small number of teams is desirable. Deep playoffs also throw out a century of bowl tradition which would be an enormous travesty to college football.

The only way around the impasse is a national championship system flexible enough to adjust to each year’s individual circumstances.

First things first, this is not a playoff, it is a championship system.

Include all undefeated teams.
Include all teams above the first gap in the average top 25 rankings of 1.5 (A value of 0.06 in the current formula.)
Embed a flexible structure into the existing BCS games.

A winning season deserves consideration for a berth in a regional bowl.
A conference championship deserves consideration for a berth in a premier bowl.

Only the two criteria above warrant consideration for a national championship.

The devil is in the details, 6 pages of detail. Email me at utesfan100@yahoo.com if you want a copy of these.

Return the BCS bowls to thier historic New Year’s Day time. Add an opptional wild card game (for the most common situations involving 3-5 teams) and use two of these five games, determioned by the conference tie-ins of the top teams, as semi-finals for the national championship game. For cases involving more than 4 teams use play-in games hosted by the favored team for the final spots in the semi-finals.

Once this is settled, allow the remianing BCS bowls to have thier conference tie-ins and make selections free from the scrutiny that comes from claiming to name a national champion.

This year a play-in games with Utah hosting Boise State would have been needed, with the opportunity to play Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl the prize. Florida and Texas would have played in the wild card game. The Fiesta Bowl and wild card game winners would meet in the national championship game.

Alabama and USC, and Georgia last year, failed to win all their games and also failed to built enough consensus to prevent a gap of 0.0600 in the BCS standings from forming ahead of them. These teams maybe pick up a first place vote or two, but not 1/4 of the AP and BlogPoll votes Utah got.

They would certainly not get 4 of the 6 BCS computers to pick them (Anderson and Hester, Massey W-L, Sagarin EOL-CHESS and Peter Wolfe).

USC would have played Penn State in the Rose Bowl.
Alabama would have played Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl.
Virginia Tech would have played Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.

by utesfan100 on Jan 13, 2009 9:47 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

NO Way undefeated alone gets you in

The idea that an undefeated season alone would get you into the championship system is ridiculous. That would destroy every motivation for teams to schedule big time OOC games. There is no fan alive that wants to see more George v. Georgia Southern than USC v. Ohio St. No one wants to see an undefeated 1998 Tulane team over a one loss USC team. Utah didn’t have that much more respect than 1998 Tulane or 2007 Hawaii team before the Sugar Bowl.

by nukie on Jan 13, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Utah was ranked #7

Significantly higher than Tulane or Hawaii. This doesn’t change the fact these teams deserve the opportunity to play against competition that can beat them. If no one is found to beat them, doesn’t
that make them worthy of being the champion? Utah times 2, Hawaii, Boise State, Tulane. Only one got to play a team that could beat them.

I don’t see this criteria as being anymore rediculous than an undefeated team not having the opportunity to play for the title. If you are going to call it a national championship, shouldn’t all teams have opportunity?

To go undefeated is difficult in any conference. If a team was able to roll over the Sun Belt consistently they would get picked up by the WAC. I expect Boise State to be invited to the MWC soon. Utah will get an extra 4.5 million for its conference reveunue sharing deal for participating in a BCS bowl this year. Utah got 0.8 million for playing at Michigan this year. Unless a team has a better than 1 in 6 chance of going undefeated they are better off scheduling the game against Michigan. By then they are likely to get invited to a better league (unless the only realistic option is the stagnate PAC 10) and reduce the chances of going undefeated.

For teams in conferences with an automatic BCS qualification for its champion the question is seldom about who is the best undefeated team. It is who are the best one loss teams. In this case the top of the standings are of critical importance. For the top teams, having a more competitive OOC schedule could be the kicker that puts a team over the first gap in the consensus, the second criteria.

by utesfan100 on Jan 13, 2009 2:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Utah times 2, Hawaii, Boise State, Tulane. Only one got to play a team that could beat them.

What on earth are you talking about? I assume the one you refer to is Hawaii playing Georgia. Do you forget that the Boise St-OU game was one of the best games every played? And do you really think that Alabama could not have won your game? They played with a 3rd string LT almost the whole game.

by nukie on Jan 14, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, bad wording...

Only one got to play a teams that DID beat them.

If you are going to exclude these teams at least show them what a real good team is adn give them a good pounding.

by utesfan100 on Jan 14, 2009 2:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree...

This goes back to what I was saying about there being 3 or 4 ways just to implement a “plus one”.

You assume that a plus one would mean that the top 4 teams at the end of the regular season would be seeded, and have a 4 team playoff. And under that scenario Utah gets screwed again.

Another way to do it would be to nix the BCSNC game as it stands now, and play out the bowl season the way it was played out before the 5th BCS game was added. After those bowls were played out, teams would be re-ranked and then the top two teams would go at it…

BTW, this year in that scenario Utah would be playing UF for the NC*

Again, there is no right answer here. The system can probably be made “more fair” for non BCS conferences but it will never be a full blown playoff. I’ll admit I didn’t read your entire post, but judging by the length of it, it is probably too complicated to get implemented.

*I’m aware that if there wasn’t a 5th BCS bowl that Utah might not have played in a BCS bowl and therefore may not have finished 2nd, along with all of the other situations that could have panned out by there not being a 5th BCS bowl, but you get my point.

by LSU Jonno on Jan 14, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Love the footnote LSU Jonno. I think when most people refer to plus 1 they mean (or used to mean) 4 BCS bowls and the top 2 after that. We could add in the cotton and go 5 BCS bowls and the top 2 after that.

I am actually for a playoff. 8 teams, 6 conference champs and 2 at larges (1 of which will usually be a non-BCS team).

As a disclosure, I haven’t read but a few of the posts on this thread.

by Bob Barker on Jan 14, 2009 2:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nature of your disagreement

While I can agree that the assumtion I make about a plus one is correctly characterized, even your system would have failed Utah in 2004 as USC and Auburn would have played leaving undefeated Utah on the sidelines.

While I agree the BCS standings are a fair representation of the strengths of a team, how can a league fairly award a national champion when undefeated teams remain? Utah fairly deserves a lower ranking for a worse SOS, the margin for error is significantly higher because no upper limit can be determined. This was even more so in 2004 when we did not even have a close game.
Utah deserves an opportunity to play a team to expose them as pretenders or improve their SOS to be meaningful.

As for your asterik, Utah was #6, high enough to get a BCS bowl even under the old criteria. Ohio State and Alabama would have been left out of the BCS by the old standards.

Do you just dissagree with my assumption about a plus 1, or do you have a problem with the championship system I presented?

by utesfan100 on Jan 14, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You have to have a playoff

The bottom line is a playoff results in the championship being decided on the field. It is ridiculous that you can have the same record as a team, beat them by 10 points at a neutral site, and yet you get left out of the national championship for them, because they ran up the score and looked a little better, and lost a little earlier.

I recently wrote a high school paper on this subject. BCS advocates talk about academic responsibilities. Look at basketball, a 2 semester sport with 3 times as many games. Not to mention, although a playoff would add 3 weeks, look at Florida and Oklahoma. They are already practicing for an extra month anyways, why can’t they play a game at the end of every week?

And if you say that a playoff won’t solve the controversy, you are right, it won’t. But would you rather have a controversy over who are the top 2 teams, or whether or not the 8th ranked or 9th ranked team is better?

by Ianoka on Jan 13, 2009 5:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think a playoff will resolve most of the controversy

But why is it so important to resolve the controversy? And if it’s important, why is it so important that we have to dramatically change the way college football has been played for almost a century in order to do it?

Richard Pittman

by Richard Pittman on Jan 13, 2009 6:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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