Baseball Positional Preview: Rotation
The offense was fun because LSU is, well, stacked at almost every position. Now we turn to what has been LSU's Achilles heel for seemingly forever: pitching. The bad news is we have lost all of last year's starting rotation. The good news is, we have lost all of last year's rotation.
That overstates things, but the rotation was not a team strength last year as not one starter had an ERA lower than the team average, meaning the bullpen essentially carried the team. No one was terrible, really, but when your ace has a 4.12 ERA, your starters don't exactly inspire fear into opposing hitters. So, this year, the bullpen which carried us, gets promoted. I'm speculating a bit on the order of the rotation, but I think I can say with confidence our top three starters.
The stats I use for the pitchers is W-L-S, IP, ERA, K/BB. Pay close attention to the walk to strikeout ratios, as that's usually the best indicator of future success.
FRIDAY
Anthony Ranaudo, So., 1-0-0, 12.0 IP, 0.00, 13/6
Ranaudo missed almost all of last season with tendinitis, only to show up in late April and pitch lights out. He rapidly moved his way up the bullpen , and even started an SEC game. He's 6'7" and is our big, intimidating, give-‘em-the gas pitcher. He's also a huge question mark, but he was one of the jewels of last year's recruiting class, and he's finally healthy and able to take his mantle as LSU's Ace. We haven't had a lockdown Friday starter in a very long time. More than anyone else on the staff, he has the potential to be great.
SATURDAY
Daniel Bradshaw, So., 4-5-4, 54.2 IP, 4.12, 52/13
Bradshaw has probably earned the right to be the Friday starter and it wouldn't surprise me if he was the nominal ace. He was a do-it-all pitcher last year who really came into his own in April. He was actually a midweek starter by season's end, but he was a forgotten man in the bullpen after he got lit up by UC Irvine in relief. He also a pretty good fastball, though nowhere near Ranaudo's. But he is a pitcher that Mainieiri obviously trusts as a solid, workmanlike pitcher who gives you a chance to win, though I do like that he averages nearly a strikeout per inning.
SUNDAY
Austin Ross, So., 3-1-3, 52.1 IP, 2.58, 37/9.
The last of our talented trio of sophomores who will probably compose our weekend rotation, Ross is lefty of the group. Which means, of course, I am contractually obligated to describe him as "crafty". Which he is. Unlike the other starters, Ross relies more on offspeed stuff than simply overpowering hitters. It also means he relies a lot more on location. Ross started two games, both early in the season, before it was determined he was a valuable situational lefty.
MIDWEEK
Ryan Byrd, Sr., 30.1 IP. 6.82, 17/8
Chris Matulis, Fr., HS All-American
Jordan Brown's announcement that he is quitting the team due to injuries hurts the team in that he would have been a reliable innings eater. Brown wasn't a star, but he started 10 games and would have contended for a weekend slot. He had a high ERA (driven by an unlucky high batting average against him), but went 5-0 and he was the last guy to win a game at Alex Box. He will be missed.
Byrd now is the unofficial senior leader. He had the worst ERA on the team last year, but he kept the ball in the park and balls just found a way to fall in against him. Chalk a lot of that up to bad luck. He's not suddenly going to become Ben McDonald, but he should vastly improve. He may make the occasional weekend appearance.
Matulis is our stud recruit and will likely get midweek starts to see what kind of stuff he has. Otherwise, he's going to ease into the lineup in relief. But I wanted to list him among the starters as he is the one freshman with huge breakout potential.
The big worry is that none of these guys actually has any real experience starting. Jordan Brown had 10 starts and now he's out for the year (good thing I waited to do this), the rest of the staff has combined for 14. 6 of those are from Byrd and 3 from Coleman, our bullpen ace. Which means there's only 5 starts between the guys penciled in to start the year as our weekend rotation. You want a key to the season, here it is: how will our sophomore pitchers fare?
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Saves
A truly overrated statistic, but so are wins. It’s more just a tool to show you that Mainieiri trusted these guys to close out games. Saves, at their core, is a usage statistic, so it tells you more about how a manager (or coach in this case) thinks of the value of a pitcher than his actual value.
Bradshaw and Ross were throwing high leverage innings as true freshmen, and that is a big deal. That’s the takeaway from their saves number.
re: Jordan Brown's BAA
Is your meaning that his BABIP was high?
There's action across the street. It's Snowman! Take him!
by Man Mountain on Jan 26, 2009 7:06 PM CST up reply actions
And you see, I have no ability to talk in this kind of baseball code..
This is why Poseur is here.
That, and someone has to be “the pretty one.”
Richard Pittman
by Richard Pittman on Jan 26, 2009 8:21 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, but I didn't do the math
Well, I was just using his BAA without calculating his BABIP (batting average of balls in play). Byrd’s BAA was .357 which is abnormally high, and BABIP is almost always higher, especially because he kept balls in the park. His BABIP is .405. Brown was in the same ballpark. Opponents hit .319 overall against him with a BABIP of .392.
High ERA’s driven by a high BABIP tend to go down because BABIP is pretty much beyond a pitcher’s control (though not entirely).
But an "abnormally high"
BAA might simply be the result of being a bad pitcher. The idea of having an “unlucky” BAA would suggest that the pitcher was unlucky in the context of another skewed stat, i.e. an abnormally high BABIP or a huge sway from his career average. As I’m sure Brown doesn’t have enough starts to suggest any kind of career norm as a reliable sample, I’m not sure how one can assume a high BAA is “unlucky.”
Anyway, I’m a huge MLB nerd, but I really have no clear idea about the statistical norms of the college game, particularly as defense (esp. catching) seems so spotty and there are just so many teams playing at various levels of competence. I imagine the BABIP for an “average” college pitcher is pretty damn high.
There's action across the street. It's Snowman! Take him!
by Man Mountain on Jan 27, 2009 6:02 PM CST up reply actions
I’d be surprised if BABIP is reliably recorded for college pitchers. Boyd would be the go-to guy for that sort of stuff, but he unfortunately shut it down.
Plus BABIP just sounds so geeky!
by 4.0 Point Stance on Jan 27, 2009 1:31 PM CST reply actions
It is not
But I could glance at his stat line and know that it was “unlucky”. I tried saying that instead of BABIP so I didn’t freak everyone out with too many stats.
BABIP isn’t THAT hard to calculate. (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K) = BABIP. Hmmm… I might be tempted to keep track of that for LSU this season. Any other advanced metrics you want me to track for the Tigers?
That should be pretty easy to track via a simple spreadsheet. But a lot of the more arcane “vorpie” stats just don’t apply in college.
by 4.0 Point Stance on Jan 28, 2009 11:11 AM CST reply actions

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