Auburn Preview

by Richard Pittman on Oct 20, 2009 6:54 AM CDT in Football Comment 10 comments

Kentucky quarterback Randall Cobb (18) finds the end zone around Auburn defensive back Daren Bates (25) during an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

3 months ago: Kentucky quarterback Randall Cobb (18) finds the end zone around Auburn defensive back Daren Bates (25) during an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

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The Auburn Fabulous Freebirds started the season on fire. They were 5-0 after a win against Tennessee two weeks ago, and then things fell apart, especially for their offense under heralded coordinator Gus Malzahn. They lost the next two weeks to Arkansas and Kentucky, not looking good either week.

Here are Auburn's point totals in each week so far this season: 37, 49, 41, 54, 26, 23, 14. Here are the yardage totals for Auburn in each of those games: 556, 589, 400, 560, 459, 375, 315. You can see a clear trend down in the last two weeks. Points-wise, the trend started against Tennessee. Incidentally, the second half of that Tennessee game is also where Jonathan Crompton started playing pretty well. Any thoughts on whether that started Auburn's backsliding?

If you want to break it down further, here are the passing yards in those games: 255, 199, 300, 306, 235, 133, 95. Except for Ben Tate, the Auburn offense has been downright ugly for the last two games, and it has started with the struggles of Chris Todd and the passing game. Ben Tate has averaged over 150 yards rushing in those two games. So yeah, there's Ben Tate.

The defense has been good at times, but inconsistent. An offense that puts a premium on snapping the ball quickly and maximizing the number of plays is naturally going to also maximize the number of defensive plays, which is going to skew yardage stats against, but this is a defense that gave up 509 yards of offense to West Virginia and won. They gave up 410 yards to Tennessee and won. In the last two weeks, they've given up 495 yards to Arkansas in a hideous loss and 385 yards to Kentucky. They gave up less than 300 yards to Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State, and Ball State.

Keep in mind, LSU's maximum yardage on the season was 368 against Georgia. We've gone over 300 yards 4 times, and got less than 200 against Florida.

That makes this a really interesting game. I think Auburn will try to run right at us like Florida did. Auburn may be a spread team, but they still run the ball better than they throw it. We'll see two quarterbacks, as Auburn will bring Kodi Burns into the game to provide a run/pass mix, though they've primarily stuck with Chris Todd so far. Chris Todd does not get sacked much, as Auburn has given up only 5 sacks in 7 games. It will be difficult for us to put pressure on him, so we may sit in a zone and try to force throws into coverage. I have confidence in John Chavis and the defense to hold the sometimes-explosive Auburn offense in check, but can our offense take advantage of the opportunities the Auburn defense gives?

Auburn has a poor secondary that has been depleted by injuries. They are vulnerable to our talented wide receiver corps. It is time for our coaches to trust Jordan Jefferson to be able to get the ball to them. For that matter, it is time for Jordan Jefferson to mature as a quarterback and get the ball to Brandon Lafell and Terrance Toliver over the middle of the field, where the opportunities will come. Auburn does not generate a ton of sacks, registering less than 2 per game, so Jefferson should have opportunities to let routes develop and get receivers the ball. This is a game where, if he makes some strides in his development and has a good game, it could set up LSU for a very good season, and Jefferson for a great career.

Now is the time, young man.

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Do not underestimate Auburn!

Auburn will be realing from two straight losses. It’s always tough when these two teams meet. It very well could be our toughest test so far.

As far as Jefferson, yes it’s more than past time for him to start making some plays, but the offensive line has got to start protecting him better. Still remember Miles saying this was his strongest offensive line yet? If so be the case, then why is Jefferson being sacked so much?

Auburn brings to the table a very explosive offense with a very good running game. Our defense has been very weak in stopping the run. If Auburn can control the line of scrimmage and run well against us, it could be another very long day for our defense.

LSU’s biggest enemy thus far has not been the other team, it’s been themselves. Miles and offensive coordinator are scared of a repeat of last year’s interceptions and turnovers. I understand that, but if you don’t take chances, you can’t make points. We help Florida to 13 points which in reality should have been 6 as the defensive holding call was not called against the receiver who made the touchdown, but nonetheless, the offense was very unproductive and the defense, well, could not keep Florida offense off of the field.

Three big changes need to be made that I see. Offensive and defensive lines have to start holding their own more, with the defense shutting down the run and the offense protecting their quarterback and making holes for the running game to get a hold. The offense needs to open up things more with better play calling so that the offense can generate both a passing and running game. Our offense has been too predictable. Lastly, the team needs to get the lead out of their rears and start playing four quarters of football and come out with some enthusiasm and fire.

Best of luck this week. Hope we can bounce back after the loss to florida backed up with an off week.

by dsrimages on Oct 20, 2009 8:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Auburns offense was a statistical mirage

I think what people discovered in the Tennessee game is if you sit back in zone coverage on defense and make Todd complete mid to short passes to move the ball down the field he will eventually make a mistake. Seems to be a theme defensively this season around the league.

LSU is catching Auburn at the perfect time. Auburn is at the end of a long series of tough games and as a team lacks quality depth. I think this could be the game LSU unloads on a tired Auburn team on a two game losing streak.

by NOPE on Oct 20, 2009 11:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That's what I thought at the beginning of the year too.

But if we can’t even “unload” on ULL why do we think we’ll unload on a much better AU team?

Remember we should have clobbered this team in 07 and 08 (in hindsight) but didn’t. These LSU-AU games are always close. I don’t see any reason this one should be different. I have absolutely no confidence that the offensive problems will be solved. I think Crowton should call his agent and start looking around.

by LSU Jonno on Oct 20, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also notice the defensive pressure

I think todd’s performance the last two games is directly related to the pressure that was put on him. Arkansas sacked him a couple of times and had a guy in his face all day. Kentucky did the same. we are the worst team in the league at sacking the qb. We have 5 sacks through 6 games. I don’ t think sitting back is how we should play this game.

Our lack of defensive pressure has to be partly by design, b/c our d is playing very well otherwise. I think we need to get after Todd to shut down their offense. I fear that he will pick apart our zone coverages if we give him time.

by Zandor435 on Oct 20, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs