I haven’t done enough research on the rest of the SEC or NCAA to know how normal this is (nor will I) but in my opinion it appears that Auburn’s recruiting rankings are very, very skewed.

For example:

Let’s look at 2006-2009 recruiting for Auburn using the Rival’s database.

Auburn had 43 combined 4 and 5 star recruits over that time span. Taking just a quick look at the names in their classes you can gather that these rankings are at least slightly skewed becuase guys like Ontario McCaleb, Jermaine Johnson, and Raven Gray (some of AU’s most touted players over the last 3 years) are all counted twice.

Sure this happens at every school. LSU for example counted Deangelo Benton twice and he’s not even on our current roster. But this appears to have happened much more frequently at Auburn than LSU, and possibly most schools.

What happens when you try to find Auburn’s 43 combined 4 and 5 star players that they’ve recruited over the past 4 years on their current roster?

2006:
In 2006 AU boasted 15 combined 4 and 5 star players. (which is 1 more than LSU can claim). However out of those 15 players only 9 are still on the team, or 60%. LSU has 7/14 players still on the team, or 50% however that number includes the departure of Jared Mitchell who was drafted in the first round of this years MLB draft. I’m temped to throw Mitchell out and call this 7/13 for 54%.

2007:
In 2007 AU boasted 13 combined 4 and 5 star players. (LSU signed 21). However out of those 13 players only 7 are currently on the team, or 54%. LSU has 15/21 or 71%. That includes the departure of Byrd who has played through his eligability since he was a Juco transfer. For the purposes of this analysis though, it makes sense to count him in the numbers.

2008:
In 2008, AU really started to feel the burn from Saban, and managed only 6 combined 4 and 5 star recruits. Out of those 6 only 3 are on the current roster or 50%. LSU signed 13 combined 4 and 5 star recruits, 12 of which are still on the team, or 92%.

2009:
In 2009, AU again had a lackluster year recruiting with only 9 combined 4 and 5 star recruits. Out of those 9, 7 are currently listed on Auburn’s roster. However, Ontario McCaleb was already counted in the ‘08 class so I will remove his name from this list reducing the numbers to 6/9. Also, according to this article Paige hadn’t made it to campus as of August 9 because he’s waiting for the clearing house. He is listed on Auburn’s roster however. I won’t count him either, because Loston appears to be in the same boat yet he is listed on LSU’s roster. So AU’s numbers drop to 5/9 or 56%. LSU signed 15 combined 4 and 5 star recruits in 2009, 14 of which are currently on the team. The one missing so far being the afore mentioned Loston.

So what does this all mean?

Well, by looking at the current rosters, of Auburns 43 combined 4 and 5 star players that they signed between 2006-2009, only 24 of those players are still on the team, or 56%. LSU has 48 of their 62 combined 4 and 5 star players for 77%. Or 48 of 63 for 76% if we count Jared Mitchell. In my opinion, this seems like a very wide gap. A gap that is probably wide enough to explain why despite a one game differential in conference records last year, LSU is picked preseason #9 and Auburn wasn’t close to cracking the top 25.

So I don’t think it is correct to label Auburn is a program that is “doing less with more”. I do think it is correct to label Auburn as a program that has completely fallen asleep on the recruiting trail and is probably playing par for the course considering the talent that is actually on the current roster. This means Auburn is not likely headed for a quick turn around like LSU is predicted to have. This will be a rebuilding process for Auburn that will take several years to get out of.

It would be interesting to compare the number of 4 and 5 star recruits on Auburns current team to programs like South Carolina, Ole MIss, and Arkansas. Teams that Auburn should be beating, but have seemed to have fallen behind.

is and isn’t talented, but recruiting rankings are overrated.

If they were as accurate as some people would like to beleive, then Boise State, Utah, TCU, and BYU would all be terrible-to-mediocre while Auburn, Texas A&M, and Michigan wouldn’t have had losing seasons last year.