The BlogPoll Returns
by Poseur on Aug 14, 2009 10:51 AM CDT
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I can't believe it, but I managed to get invited back to the BlogPoll. Odds were near even on whether I'd have my ballot stripped as I started to lose interest later in the season because LSU's season was making me hate football. I'm almost recovered and ready to take a look around the nation.
Brian has asked that we post our preliminary ballots on Monday and give our readership a chance to mock our selections. Then, after I ignore you take your wise advice, I resubmit my ballot on Wednesday. Today, as you may have noticed, is Friday, but I'm trying to get a jump on my preseason ballot.
A few things before I weakly defend my ballot: I hate preseason polls. This ballot is almost entirely guesswork and I am in no way married to the ballot. My solemn vow is that I will completely disregard this ballot a month into the season when ranking teams. I will do my very best to resist poll inertia and just keep voting for a team because that's where they were last week. I reserve the right to move teams dramatically from week to week as I actually get to form an opinion on the teams based on actual data from this season.
So here we go...
 |
||
| Rank | Team | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | |
| 2 | Southern Cal | |
| 3 | Texas | |
| 4 | Oklahoma | |
| 5 | Ohio State | |
| 6 | Alabama | |
| 7 | Virginia Tech | |
| 8 | Georgia | |
| 9 | Penn State | |
| 10 | Oklahoma State | |
| 11 | LSU | |
| 12 | Oregon | |
| 13 | TCU | |
| 14 | Georgia Tech | |
| 15 | Mississippi | |
| 16 | Oregon State | |
| 17 | Wisconsin | |
| 18 | Clemson | |
| 19 | Missouri | |
| 20 | California | |
| 21 | Arkansas | |
| 22 | Utah | |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | |
| 24 | Notre Dame | |
| 25 | Kansas | |
Breaking it down in groups of five...
1-5. I'm not changing this part of my ballot. The top four is about as solid as it can get, and will probably be the top four on nearly everyone's ballot. Ohio St is also a pretty safe #5 as the preseason Big 10 favorite. <INSERT JOKE ABOUT THE BCS HERE>
6-10. I'm not sold on Penn St, but they have lots of talent and an easy schedule. VT just lost its star running back, but if there is a program at which the talent is seemingly irrelevant, it is Virginia Tech. That Bama game should be epic. Georgia lost its glamour players, but the lines are loaded, and we all know how I feel about line play.
11-15. My grouping of interesting teams that all have huge question marks. I think I have TCU ranked fairly high, but there are a consistent 10-win team that plays stellar defense. Honestly, I felt they were a better team than Utah last year, they just couldn't seal the deal. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt as a mid-tier team.
16-20. I refuse to buy the Cal hype. Is there a program, other than Clemson, that has disappointed more often than the Bears in the last few years? Wisconsin and Oregon St. are two programs that never seem to get any preseason attention, but are usually sitting near the top of the conference standings by year's end. OK, the Badgers have some serious holes, but someone's got to finish third in the Big Ten.
21-25. Hey, a Big East team! And Notre Dame! I'm completely not sold on any team in this grouping and I feel sort of stupid for not having Miami in my preseason top 25, so I'm waiting for someone to make a convincing argument to drop one of these five. The Irish's recruiting classes have to pan out eventually, right? Arkansas honestly scares me this season, I think Petrino is going to pull some big upset. Hopefully against someone other than LSU.
Really, I'm looking for input. Let ‘er rip!
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Can you first tell us what is your criteria for the ranking?
The only reason that I don’t like preseason polls is because there isn’t a unified rule set for how they are to be compiled. This is really the only problem I have with the BCS. Since human polls are a huge part in determining who plays for the championship game, the pollsters should be given some guidance on how to rank teams, ESPECIALLY PRESEASON.
So, is this your prediction on how the teams will finish taking into account schedules and such, or is this your prediction on how good a team is on an absolute scale?
I think that most people try to predict how a team will finish, which to me is a severe injustice. A team shouldn’t be ranked preseason based on it’s schedule toughness, because in effect they are being penalized TWICE in the polls for having a tough schedule. Once in the voter’s mind when determing a team’s “pole position”, and then again when they actually play the game and lose.
A good point
I agree completely about schedule, but I am trying to do a little of both. I’d say it’s 75% power poll and 25% prediction. But let’s be honest, both are random ass guesses. The key is that I will not use this poll as the basis for future rankings.
Penn State is a great example. I’m torn on how good they are (I love their defense) but I’m pretty sure they will finish 2nd in the Big Ten. Did I give them a bit of a bump for that prediction? Yes. But I also don’t think they are as good on an absolute scale as Georgia, who I think will end up with a worse record. So PSU is in my top ten, but I will probably kill them if they lose to someone not named Ohio St.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com
Cool
I actually think that the pollsters do a much better job of looking at a teams full season these days instead of being married to their preseason favs. Which is exactly what you have promised.
Here are my thoughts on your poll…
1) Penn State – So here is the thing. We know Penn St. was good last year. We know they still have a great QB, a great defense, and the winningest coach of all time and therefore have to give them respect. But they lost some good WR’s and they lost their entire O-line, and they almost lost to Ohio St. last year, and they were DEMOLISHED by USC. Given that Michigan will be better, and Iowa is going to be good along with the Ilini, I have Penn St pegged as the top 25 team likely to lose the most ground in the poll.
2) I love the TCU and Oregon St. picks
3) Wisconsin…Dude seriously? For all the crap Miles gets about winning with other people’s players, there is not a better example of this than Bielema.
4) I admire the heck out of you for balling up and putting Arky in there, because if this is a power poll they deserve it. Unfortunately their schedule will not allow it. Here is the problem though. Arkansas would destroy Notre Dame by 21 pts. And I know you only have ND on here because of their soft schedule, not because you actually think they are good. This is where you run into problems splitting your poll up into both prediction and power poll in my opinion. I also think you should rank Arky ahead of Ole Miss, just to see what kind of trash talk you get.
5) Va Tech at 7 aint going to happen bro. Check out the teams in the ACC. Can you honestly discern any crumble of a difference between: Ga Tech, UNC, Clemson, Va Tech???? BC never seems to have a down year either…Oh yeah, and who knows what Miami and Fl St. will put out this year. The point is, the ACC is so deep and Va Tech isn’t sufficiently better to allow them a top 10 spot. Just won’t happen man. Tech is going to have 3 losses, one to bama and 2 in conference, and a 3 loss ACC team isn’t going to be in the top 10.
USC?
How do you have USC ahead of Oklahoma, and especially ahead of Texas? They are starting a new QB, and lost just about everyone on defense except for Taylor Mays. They have a good O-line, decent receivers, and an inexperienced QB. And 2 new coordinators. Sounds a little like us last year.
USC
I don’t know who the new linebackers will be, but I’m pretty sure they will be very good. No one recruits more talent than USC, and I’m pretty confident they will be able to plug and play with whoever is on the roster.
The secret to USC’s best teams was their absolutely dominant lines. USC’s best teams have had offensive lines which could protect even the most inept QB (and their QBs have been far from inept). This team could have their best line. The line will carry them. I’m pretty sure they will scrounge up a wide receiver from somewhere.
OU is replacing 4 starters on the line. That’s not good. Texas… I don’t know. I have an odd feeling about them this year, that they are going to be disappointing (by UT standards). I have nothing to base this on other than gut feeling. But the top four are pretty clearly the top four. I’m splitting hairs among two through four.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com
I have complained and complained about pre-season polls
and how they impact future polls, but it seems like the media is starting to listen to the criticism. The polls aren’t nearly as bad as they were just a few years ago. They will actually move teams up and down based on performance, and you don’t hear any fool say anymore, “They’re #1 until someone beats them.”
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
by Richard Pittman on Aug 14, 2009 8:54 PM CDT reply actions
Virginia Tech RB Darren Evans out for season
Personally, I feel like his loss is a big enough blow to drop them down at least 3 spots from a #7. I know the ACC is bad, but they do play Bama and Nebraska this year as well.
by Big McLargeHuge on Aug 15, 2009 8:07 AM CDT reply actions
IF...
we lose to Arkansas again I dare say it should no longer be called an upset!
Polls…gotta love ‘em. It’s what fans the flames of interest in college football.
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| West | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
2 LSU Tigers  |
17 | 10 | 40 | 13 |
| 5 Mississippi Rebels |
14 | 13 | 34 | 19 |
| 7 Arkansas Razorbacks |
13 | 14 | 36 | 17 |
| 8 Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
13 | 14 | 31 | 21 |
| 10 Auburn Tigers |
12 | 15 | 29 | 24 |
| |
7 | 20 | 19 | 33 |
| East | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
| 1 Kentucky Wildcats |
18 | 9 | 41 | 12 |
| 3 South Carolina Gamecocks |
17 | 9 | 38 | 13 |
| 4 Florida Gators |
16 | 11 | 38 | 15 |
| 6 Georgia Bulldogs |
13 | 13 | 30 | 22 |
| 9 Vanderbilt Commodores |
13 | 14 | 26 | 25 |
|
8 | 19 | 24 | 28 |
