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Big 12 Quarterbacks Through the Lens of the ATVSQBPI

As requested by LSUJonno, we continue looking at the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index by looking at some different quarterbacks.  

Again, here is the formula:

Passer Rating = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 5*(First down completions and runs) + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Turnovers)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

And here is the post where we talk about how we came up with the formula, and why it's better than a traditional passer rating.  Keep in mind, we have to take out the first down statistics, because we just don't have them.

On Saturday, we looked at the SEC Quarterbacks.  Judging by the weekend traffic numbers, most of you missed it.  So, if you want to see how the SEC quarterbacks stacked up, check out this link.  Today, we take a look at the Big 12, which has a reputation for having had a whole lot of good quarterbacks and good passing teams.  First, as with the SEC, let's look at our pre-suppositions, which are that the league had a lot more passing production than the SEC did last year, and that Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Graham Harrell were the best.  How do the numbers bear out?

Check them out after the jump:

Star-divide

 

Big 12 Quarterbacks Productivity Index
Quarterbacks ATVSQBPI (y/touch)
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma 10.72
Colt McCoy, Texas 8.93
Graham Harrell, Texas Tech 8.76
Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State 8.67
Chase Daniel, Missouri 8.17
Joe Ganz, Nebraska 8.00
Josh Freeman, Kansas State 7.75
Todd Reesing, Kansas 7.60
Robert Griffin, Baylor 7.51
Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M 6.50
Austen Arnaud, Iowa State 6.46
Cody Hawkins, Colorado 5.23

 

If you compare this to the SEC numbers, you are immediately struck by how inflated the numbers are. The SEC quarterbacks had no one with an ATVSQBPI above 8.73 and only 3 above 6.0. Eleven of the twelve QBs we're looking at in the Big 12 had ATVSQBPIs above 6, and the last place quarterback in the conference would have been mid-pack in the SEC with the same numbers.

The Big 12 really did have quarterbacks that were a lot more effective than the SEC quarterbacks.  It does not answer the question of whether this was the result of a huge differential in talent at QB or a differential in defenses.  I propose without proof or argument that it was probably a combination of the two in more or less equal quantities.

You would have also been right that Bradford, McCoy, and Harrell were the top 3, but the divide isn't between #3 and #4.  The big divide is between #1 and #2.  Bradford beats McCoy by almost 2 full yards per play, which is a HUGE difference.  In contrast, the difference between #3 and #4 is not quite 0.1 yards per play, which is essentially a tie.  When you consider that Zac Robinson of Oklahoma State saw his ATVSQBPI decrease markedly as a result of his running because he did a lot of designed runs, he may have actually been the second best QB in the conference.

I am still struggling with how to account for a quarterback who does a lot of designed runs.  I think the index properly accounts for a "scrambling" quarterback, but not a quarterback who is essentially a running back taking direct snaps.

Unlike the SEC, you see not only an upper class (Bradford), but you also see a pretty significant underclass.  Robert Griffin of Baylor is in 9th place, but he is not that far from the QBs a couple spots higher, and he is way ahead of #10.  In the SEC, you saw only an upper class and a jumble in the middle, which may properly be called an underclass (leaving a distinct lack of a middle class).

In the SEC, you can look at the numbers and see that everyone other than Florida, Georgia, and Ole Miss were held back by their quarterback play.  Here, only Texas A&M, Iowa State, and Colorado were really far behind the pack, while Oklahoma was set apart from the rest in terms of quality.  In comparison only to other Big 12 quarterbacks, Sam Bradford was spectacular, while everyone from McCoy to Griffin were varying shades of good, while Johnson, Arnaud, and Hawkins hurt their team relative to other quarterbacks.

We'll go over numbers for some specific quarterbacks over the course of their careers another day.

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Richard

Thanks for the numbers. I think this will really help us put this years numbers in perspective. One other thought is when we compute this years numbers do it with and without the first down stat. That will also help to compare stats.

by LSU Jonno on Aug 17, 2009 9:20 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

I actually now have the 1st down stats..

and I’ll work on previous seasons soon.

Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.

And The Valley Shook

by Richard Pittman on Aug 17, 2009 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

QB productivity difference is shocking.

Could the big difference in productivity between SEC and Big XII qbs be due to differences in the offensive schemes employed by the schools in each conference? (If such a scheme difference actually exists?)

by Displaced Tiger on Aug 17, 2009 11:26 AM CDT reply actions  

If the difference is one of offensive scheme..

then the SEC should be emulating it. You can’t argue with production. I think it’s more a difference of talent, both at QB and on the defensive side of the ball.

Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.

And The Valley Shook

by Richard Pittman on Aug 17, 2009 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think it is mainly a scheme issue

Most Big 12 teams employ some type of spread offense (spare me your “the spread won’t work in the SEC” argument, Florida has disproved that myth), so it means defenses are seeing mostly 10 personnel all game long. SEC teams usually employ more of a pro-set on offense, so you see more 21 personnel in games. Having to worry about covering and stopping 3 athletes on a play like you do in the SEC is a hell of a lot easier than worrying about covering 5 athletes on a play, like we do in the Big 12.

The Big 12 also had a lot of experienced QBs last season: Bradford was a second-year starter, McCoy was in his third year starting, Harrell third year, Robinson second year, etc. I think the only QBs in their first year starting were Robert Griffin, Jerrod Johnson, and Austen Arnaud. Coincidently, they are among the bottom of your rankings.

Cody Johnson was a second-year starter who ended up splitting time with another QB, so that effected his stats.

by Beergut on Aug 18, 2009 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think it's purely a question of offensive scheme..

if it was, every SEC team should adopt a Big 12 like offensive scheme. Those Big 12 offenses were much more productive. The SEC teams aren’t going to say, “We know the Big 12 spreads got better production, but we’re going with a pro style because… because we want to.” They’re rational actors and will do what is best for their teams. It’s possible those teams sacrificed effective running for effective passing, while the SEC coaches went for more of a balance. I haven’t looked at those statistics, but I don’t seem to recall the SEC’s rushing attacks being all that much better than the Big 12’s (outside of Texas, which did not have any productive running backs). I think the hyper-inflated Big 12 numbers are more a matter of talent than of of scheme, and I mean talent both at quarterback and on defense.

Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.

And The Valley Shook

by Richard Pittman on Aug 19, 2009 6:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not so sure Big 12 offenses sacrificed rushing for passing

b/c the best rushing team in the conference (Oklahoma State) is also it’s most balanced offense, but they are also a spread team. Some teams ran the ball better than others, but that was also mainly due to skill on their offensive line. Texas A&M, for instance, had a putrid offensive line last season, and it reflected in both our passing and rushing stats, as we couldn’t run block well, and we gave up a ton of sacks. Baylor and texas were both led in rushing by their QBs, so their rushing stats are a little misleading. Baylor has a freak of nature at QB named Robert Griffin (if you haven’t heard of him, he makes Russell Shepard look slow), and he single-handedly kept Baylor in games with his feet and his arm. texas had a good passing game, so defenses concerned with coverage left all sorts of lanes open for Colt McCoy to run in on broken plays.

I would also argue that the Big 12 benefitted from having the best WRs in the nation playing in our conference. Your defensive stats will look bad when you’re trying to stop Michael Crabtree or Dez Bryant or Jeremy Maclin every weekend. We also had the pleasure of trying to shut down the best TE in the nation in Jermaine Gresham, and arguably the second best TE in the nation in Chase Coffman (who was really just a big inside receiver in Missouri’s spread offense).

I would say the best WR in the SEC last season was Percy Harvin, and he spent half his time running the ball; second best was probably Julio Jones or Brandon Lafell. Jones plays in a ground-bound offense, while Lafell plays in a balanced attack. Neither of those two are utilized as often as good receivers are in the Big 12.

Take a look at the Big 12 individual stats and the SEC individual stats, and compare receptions and yards of the top receivers in both conferences. There isn’t a single 1000 yard receiver in the SEC; 9 of the top 12 receivers in the Big 12 gained over 1000 yds. texas and Kansas both had TWO receivers on their respective teams surpass 1000 yds.

Also, consider the number of receptions per player; the most receptions for an SEC receiver was 63 by Lafell, the least among the receptions leaders for the Big 12 was 67 for Brandon Banks of KSU. The Big 12 had six WRs with 90 or more catches in 2008, with one (Jeremy Maclin) surpassing 100 receptions. Eight of the top twelve receivers in the Big 12, either judging by receptions per game or yds per game, had 80 or more receptions. That means over two-thirds of the conferences leading receivers were constant targets in their respective offenses. By contrast, only two of the top ten receivers in the SEC (judging by receptions per game) have over 60 receptions, and seven of the top ten have over 50 receptions. I think it is safe to say that SEC offenses were not as committed to passing the ball as Big 12 offenses were.

If you look at rushing statistics, the SEC boasts five RBs in their top 10 rushers who carried the ball 190 or more times; the Big 12 only has two. The top 3 rushers in the SEC carried the ball 250, 207, and 233 times, respectively; the top 3 rushers in the Big 12 carried the ball 241, 217, and 179 times, respectively. I think it is safe ot say that the SEC was a lot more committed to a systematic approach of running the ball than the Big 12 was.

Also, you will notice that in the SEC individual rushers list, you have only one school with two players in the top ten rushers: Alabama with Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram. In the Big 12, you have three pairs of teammates listed among the top twelve rushers, with Chris Brown and Demarco Murray representing OU, Jay Finley and Robert Griffin representing Baylor, and Baron Batch and Shannon Woods representing Texas Tech. I think this speaks to systemic differences in the offenses, where Big 12 schools are featuring rotating two backs in the backfield in 10 personnel, and splitting up the carries, to spread out the production, while the SEC seems to be putting the ball in the hands of one player, putting him behind a fullback, and hammering him at the line play after play.

There is also the fact that I think Big 12 offenses tend to operate from the shotgun, with a QB taking a direct snap every play, more than they do under center, taking an indirect snap. From what I’ve seen of most SEC offenses, the majority of the teams put their QB under center, and make him take an indirect snap. Why is this important? Because the shotgun gives the QB more time in the pocket, and makes it more difficult for the pass rush to get to him before he gets off the pass, while a QB dropping back from under center is moving back at the same time the pass rush is coming upfield, giving him less time to get a pass off.

Consider that the worst passing offense in the Big 12 was Baylor, who averaged a paltry 180.7 yds per game; that would have ranked as the seventh best passing attack in the SEC, behind LSU. The best passing offense in the SEC (Georgia) averaged 277 yds per game through the air; that would have been seventh best in the Big 12. I think any objective fan would agree that an offense that averages less than 200 yds passing per game is a poor passing offense; six SEC teams (or half the conference) average less than 200 yds passing per game. There are two offenses in the Big 12 that average less than 200 yds per game, and one of them (Baylor) had a dual threat QB who was equally as effective on his feet as he was with his arm, and also happened to be a true freshman. The other school (Colorado) played musical chairs at QB all season long, and was just poor overall on offense.

As to the question of why SEC offenses won’t switch to a spread scheme, I think part of it is because some of them truly believe the myth that the spread won’t work in the SEC, because the defenses are too fast. Florida has proven that myth to be false, though, and with Arkansas and Mississippi State now installing the spread offense, I think you’ll see that changing. I also think that there is a cultural influence at work here; I think SEC fans in general love power football, they love a tough running game against a tough defense, and the coaches are just giving them what they want.

by Beergut on Aug 20, 2009 6:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

Bradford's numbers in CG

What were Bradford’s numbers like against Florida (when he finally faced any kind of defense) compared to his total year’s numbers. I would this this would give you an idea how he looks compared to SEC QB’s.

by rdpete on Aug 17, 2009 1:06 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Go to ESPN and look at the boxscore. The formula is very simple to apply.

24 attempts, 256 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, -18 yards rushing on 2 attempts.

ATVSQBPI=8.38 y/touch

Not bad, really.

Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.

And The Valley Shook

by Richard Pittman on Aug 17, 2009 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

It at least brings him down to earth...

Although Florida’s defense isn’t exactly an “average” SEC defense.

by LSU Jonno on Aug 17, 2009 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

No, it isn't.

However, it isn’t over 10 either. I would think if he had to face tough defenses on a regular basis, he would be between 8 & 9 and Colt would be a bit lower than that. So, I don’t subscribe that the Bib 12 QB’s are any better than that in the SEC.

by rdpete on Aug 18, 2009 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

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