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Hold on to the Rock

In today's Times-Picayune, Jim Kleinpeter told an interesting tale about how Les Miles is preaching ball. 

When defensive tackle senior Al Woods came out for media interviews Monday, he was carrying a football given to him by Miles at the 8:30 p.m. team meeting Saturday. Miles randomly picks a player at each meeting who has to maintain the proper grip on the ball and bring it back to him at the next meeting.

The point is for the player to get used to carrying the ball and protecting it.

"It's the first time he's given it to a defensive lineman," Woods said. "He's trying to emphasize if you ever pick up a fumble, keep it high and tight, and if you get into traffic, cover it up with both hands."

Sounds easy, right? But no sooner had Woods finished his interview than teammate Trindon Holliday, a senior, sneaked up behind him, poked the ball out, grabbed it and ran. Woods, who goes about 324 pounds, had no chance of catching the 164-pound Holliday, who is the reigning NCAA 100-meter champion.

When asked if he was going to give the ball back, Holliday said: "I don't know. We've got to talk about that. He's got to bring the ball back to the team at the meeting, and he doesn't have it right now. Coach Miles is going to be talking to him."

Woods was last seen waiting patiently by the door for Holliday.

It must be nice to be one of the fastest people in the world, just so you can do things like that. However, that's besides the point, which is that Miles is a hawk when it comes to ball security. And, it's showed.  I don't know when he started this policy of making a player carry around a ball all day, but the last two seasons, LSU has been amazing in its fumble stats after going through six straight seasons of a negative fumbling margin.

In 2007, the Tigers fumbled only 18 times, its fewest amount of the decade. More incredulously, they only lost three. The SEC doesn't keep total fumble stats, but in terms of fumbles lost only one other team had fewer than seven lost fumbles that year, Tennessee with six (twice LSU's total). Arkansas lost 15!

Last year, despite the dismal record (8-5 as dismal, I love it) and frequent tossing of pick-sixes, Miles team was even better at holding onto the football. In 13 games, LSU fumbled just 16 times total. They lost just two. I imagine the ratio of fumbles lost to fumbles is cyclical and all averages out in the end, but FIVE lost in two years?!?! That's fewer than any other SEC team had in either single year.

At some point, you have to be fumbling less to lose fewer. For instance, over the last two seasons, LSU has fumbled 34 total times. In 2002 alone, the Tigers put it on the ground 35 times, losing 18. Yeah, 2002 was an 8-5 season. Hmmm, wonder if losing the ball almost 1.5 times per game had anything to do with it.

Les, keep it up! Make 2, 3, 4 players carry a football around all day, just don't let Trindon Holliday anywhere near the guys!

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While this is a cool stat, I don't think it means much

SMQ and others have found that there’s basically no correlation between fumbles lost and win-loss record. It’s simply not a relevant stat.
http://www.rollbamaroll.com/2008/6/18/553911/fumble-luck
http://leftyloon.blogspot.com/2007/06/fluck.html

by 4.0 Point Stance on Aug 18, 2009 5:49 PM CDT reply actions  

I don't think that's what those articles are saying..

It seems to be saying that the % of fumbles lost is pure luck. I.e., it’s not repeatable, and a team’s percentage from one year to another will not correlate. In fact, here is the conclusion of the second article:

While fumble recovery rate in itself does not determine a team’s fortunes, a good rate can help mediocre teams have good seasons (Louisiana Tech in 2005) and very good teams have great seasons (Utah and Oklahoma in 2004 and Texas in 2005). Conversely, a poor rate can cause mediocre teams to have poor seasons (Wyoming in 2005) and bad teams to go winless (New Mexico State in 2005). It is an important fact to know about a team, but needs to be used in conjunction with many other factors when attempting to predict a team’s future success. With that in mind, here are the best and worst fumble recoverers from this past season.

Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.

And The Valley Shook

by Richard Pittman on Aug 18, 2009 7:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right. I'm responding to this

“In 2007, the Tigers fumbled only 18 times, its fewest amount of the decade. More incredulously, they only lost three. "
The point is, that can’t be attributed to anything other than blind luck. It’s simply not true that “good teams recover more fumbles” or vice versa. Also, from the second link: “The r squared value, for an explanation of r squared click here, for fumble recovery percentage and winning percentage is almost nonexistent. The value is .002. This means that less than one percent of the variation in a team’s winning percentage is explained by that team’s fumble recovery percentage.”

by 4.0 Point Stance on Aug 19, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

.002 in so low as to be non existent

I wonder if the adjusted r squared is negative.

Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog

by Gregatron on Aug 20, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

This was done in a movie

Darnell Jefferson (Omar Epps) in the movie “The Program”, was made to carry a football around to class due to his proclivity to fumble. A fellow player knocked the ball away from Jefferson in class and a mad dash ensued, jumping over desks to get the ball.

by Gas_House_Gorillas on Aug 19, 2009 9:45 AM CDT reply actions  

It was also done in real life.

If I am not mistaken, Larry Brown of the Redskins, circa 1970’s, was told to carry around a ball to help with his fumbling problem.

by artiger on Aug 19, 2009 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

In short...

Fumbling: not luck

Causing fumbles: not luck

Recovering the ball once it is fumbled: luck

Impact of said luck: Almost non-existent

Lesson: control what you can control, which is hanging on to the football and forcing fumbles. Don’t worry about the bounces.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com

by Poseur on Aug 19, 2009 1:05 PM CDT reply actions  

It was also done at my high school (circa 1980's)

The girls basketball coach (East Ascension High School) made turnover-prone players carry around a basketball to classes.

by Gas_House_Gorillas on Aug 19, 2009 9:21 PM CDT reply actions  

So what happened?

Obviously this isn’t a pressing news story, but did Trindon give it back?

by Ianoka on Aug 19, 2009 11:20 PM CDT reply actions  

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