ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue
Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.
You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you. I have the data going back three years in the SEC. The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.
Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:
ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).
The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway. Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.
Would you like to see 2006 and 2007? How about after the jump?
2008:
| Quarterback | ATVSQBPI (y/play) |
| Tim Tebow, Florida | 8.73 |
| Matthew Stafford, Georgia | 8.49 |
| Jevan Snead, Ole Miss | 7.84 |
| John Parker Wilson, Bama | 5.87 |
| Casey Dick, Arkansas | 5.68 |
| Jarrett Lee, LSU | 5.56 |
| Chris Smelley, South Carolina | 5.12 |
| Jordan Jefferson, LSU | 5.11 |
| Nick Stephens, Tennessee | 5.10 |
| Kodi Burns, Auburn | 5.02 |
| Chris Nickson, Vandy | 5.01 |
| Stephen Garcia, South Carolina | 4.95 |
| Tyson Lee, Mississippi State | 4.86 |
| Mike Hartline, Kentucky | 4.77 |
| Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee | 4.34 |
| Mackenzi Adams, Vandy | 4.03 |
| Chris Todd, Auburn | 4.02 |
| Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State | 2.85 |
Alright, we've been through those numbers once before. Let's take a look at 2007:
| Quarterback | ATVSQBPI (y/play) |
| Tim Tebow, Florida | 9.11 |
| Ryan Perrilloux, LSU | 8.20 |
| Erik Ainge, Tennessee | 7.12 |
| Andre Woodson, Kentucky | 6.89 |
| Matthew Stafford, Georgia | 6.78 |
| Casey Dick, Arkansas | 6.15 |
| Matt Flynn, LSU | 6.08 |
| Blake Mitchell, South Carolina | 5.81 |
| Chris Smelley, South Carolina | 5.69 |
| John Parker Wilson, Bama | 5.62 |
| Mackenzi Adams, Vandy | 5.16 |
| Seth Adams, Ole Miss | 5.03 |
| Brandon Cox, Auburn | 5.00 |
| Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State | 4.73 |
What are my take-away messages from this?:
- Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
- Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
- Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year. Or at least, he was a little more productive.
- You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference. It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
- Just look at Ryan Perrilloux. That's what we didn't have in 2008. Well, that and a defense.
- Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).
Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:
| Quarterback | ATVSQBPI (y/play) |
| Jamarcus Russell, LSU | 9.16 |
| Blake Mitchell, South Carolina | 8.26 |
| Erik Ainge, Tennessee | 8.07 |
| Andre Woodson, Kentucky | 7.79 |
| Chris Leak, Florida | 7.02 |
| Syvelle Newton, South Carolina | 7.00 |
| Casey Dick, Arkansas | 6.99 |
| Chris Nickson, Vandy | 6.55 |
| Brandon Cox, Auburn | 6.37 |
| John Parker Wilson, Bama | 6.14 |
| Omarr Conner, Mississippi State | 6.13 |
| Michael Henig, Mississippi State | 5.82 |
| Matthew Stafford, UGA | 5.78 |
| Mitch Mustain, Arkansas | 5.68 |
| Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss | 4.27 |
What are my take-home messages from 2006?:
- Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
- But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years. Just look at John Parker Wilson. His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased. Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production. Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008? Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008? Heck no. The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
- Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
- What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?
If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.
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Comments
I love this kind of analysis
A thousand cocktails to you for your work.
Two things: (1) I’m sure Auburn can’t wait to get their 4.02 back on the field and starting. (2) If Stephen Garcia can get his numbers up around the 6.00 mark, South Carolina could be pretty good this year.
by HarveyBirdmanAAL on Aug 20, 2009 9:16 AM CDT reply actions
Last year, any team with a 6.00 ATVSQBPI was doing pretty well..
Really, there were three good passing games in the conference, and then a whole lot of suck when you get down to it.
Anyone who increases their production by a yard per play is going to do themselves a lot of good, though.
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
by Richard Pittman on Aug 20, 2009 8:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Interesting figures Richard
I’m currently in the middle of some statistical analysis of WR catch rates myself.
Lookin' forward to it.
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
by Richard Pittman on Aug 20, 2009 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions
What I think this shows
is that y’all have very few differencemakers at QB in the SEC. I think it is safe to say that any QB who finishes above a 7 on this QBPI is damn good, and in 2008 and 2007 you only had 3 QBs in the conference each year who were above that number.
The ‘07 numbers are really intriguing, b/c I think they reveal a slight flaw in your QBPI, in that if you have a team with a so-so offensive line, the negative in rushing stats due to sacks will really kill your PI. I think Andre Woodson is a testament to this fact, because I watched him several times, and he is a terrific QB. Notice the drop from 2006 to 2007 in Woodson’s PI numbers; did his OL drop off in ’07?
I think y’all have more game managers than you do stars playing QB in the SEC right now. This is also reflected by the emphasis y’all put on the running game, and the lack of emphasis y’all put on the passing game, as a conference. I did a more detailed analysis of the numbers to support my stance here.
I think it's league-dependent..
You have to keep up with your opponents. A 7.0 in the Big 12 last year would have been only so-so, and would have put you way behind the Oklahomas and Texas’s of the world.
And yes, it’s dependent upon offensive line, but aren’t all offensive statistics dependent on the line? Woodson’s biggest problem was that when the rush came, he wouldn’t get rid of the ball, so he took a lot of sacks. To me, the fact that my metric punishes quarterbacks who don’t throw the ball away to avoid a sack is one of its strengths.
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
by Richard Pittman on Aug 21, 2009 7:20 AM CDT up reply actions
but the only reason a 7.0 would have been so-so in the Big 12 last year
was b/c we had so many terrific QBs in the Big 12 last season.
Have you tested your metric on the ACC?
I also think that if you looked at the numbers in the Big 12 from 2006, 2007, and then 2008, you’d see a steady climb through the years, as the experience of the star QBs we had grew.

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