The Spread. Vegas, Not The Offense

by Poseur on Sep 18, 2009 12:45 PM CDT in Football

I really don't have anything to say about the game this weekend. Billy gave us some things to look for, but I'm really looking for a game that's over by halftime. Maybe I want to see if LSU keeps running five-wide sets, but I'm not on the edge of my seat.

I just want to put this out there. The spread for the LSU-ULL game is currently 26.5. The line for the Florida-Tennessee game? 29.5.

This means that Vegas believes that LSU is a better team than ULL by a smaller margin than Florida is over Tennessee. Food for thought. I want to be insulted by this, but is there anyone who doesn't think Florida is not going to try to run up the score this weekend?

While we're playing with the spread, USC is an 18.5 point favorite over Washington. That is the same line when LSU played Washington. Does that mean Vegas believes USC and LSU are of the same quality? And how awesome do they think the Gators are?

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Does that mean Vegas believes USC and LSU are of the same quality?

Actually it means the exact opposite. Vegas knows how good Washington is now and they still think USC will beat them by 19.

by LSU Jonno on Sep 18, 2009 1:10 PM CDT reply actions

Vegas didnt just find out how good UW is -

it knew before the season even started.

by Jadmercury on Sep 18, 2009 1:16 PM CDT reply actions

I'm pretty sure the only people who knew were the UW coaching staff.

by LSU Jonno on Sep 18, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions

vegas also

has to take public perception into account when setting lines. they don’t set lines in the interest of being accurate in terms of the final score per say, they set lines to in the interest of making they most money.

by gerry dorsey on Sep 18, 2009 2:41 PM CDT reply actions

word

by LSU Jonno on Sep 18, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions

The line actually moved down. It opened at 20.

And there is absolutely no way that oddsmakers so completely re-evaluated Washington that they think they are significantly better than before the LSU game. All they have done is lose by 8 at home (scoring a meaningless TD to trim the margin from 15) and beat a very bad team in the course of allowing a ton of points.

I actually think their opinion of USC has moved DOWN, based on both the Barkley injury and the Ohio St game not meeting the preconceived blowout narrative.

Though I do agree lines are set on partially on perception of the public.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com

by Poseur on Sep 18, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Im hoping the game is on TV here. Wouldnt it be we sweet if U Dub hung in there?

Rpb Cooksey

by mogunchef on Sep 18, 2009 9:08 PM CDT reply actions

Misconception

This means that Vegas believes that LSU is a better team than ULL by a smaller margin than Florida is over Tennessee. Food for thought. I want to be insulted by this, but is there anyone who doesn’t think Florida is not going to try to run up the score this weekend?

No. Vegas makes their lines based on profitability, not how much they think a team will win by. That’s an important difference. They expect people to bet on UF because of Kiffin’s fucktardedness, and that Meyer will want to run up the score. So, they set the spread high enough to maximize profitability. They don’t confuse homer-tastic sports betters with utility maximizers behaving like a rational choice model would suggest. If a few smart sports betters take advantage, no big deal.

Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog

by Gregatron on Sep 18, 2009 9:39 PM CDT reply actions

gerry dorsey said it first

Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog

by Gregatron on Sep 18, 2009 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions

i do not think

florida willbe able to run up the score on UT. i think they will want to and try to, but i sincerely believe that the Vols will make it a competitive affair in gainesville.

That being said, point spreads exist to entice people to bet and so that vegas can make money on games, not as a prediction of how much a team should win.

by in the 9th on Sep 19, 2009 9:30 AM CDT reply actions

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SEC Baseball Standings

Last Update: May 19

# - SEC Tournament Seeding

~~Team Name~~ = Eliminated from SEC Tournament

West	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
1 LSU Tigers And The Valley Shook	19	11	42	14
6 Arkansas Razorbacks Arkansas Expats	16	14	39	17
7 Mississippi St. Bulldogs For Whom the Cowbell Tolls	16	14	34	21
9 Mississippi Rebels Red Cup Rebellion	14	16	34	22
10 Auburn Tigers Track Em Tigers	13	17	30	26
~~Alabama Crimson Tide~~ Roll 'Bama Roll	9	21	21	34

East	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
2 South Carolina Gamecocks Garnet And Black Attack	18	11	39	15
4 Kentucky Wildcats A Sea Of Blue	18	12	41	15
3 Florida Gators Alligator Army	18	12	40	16
5 Vanderbilt Commodores Anchor Of Gold	16	14	29	25
8 Georgia Bulldogs Dawg Sports	14	15	31	24
~~Tennessee Volunteers~~ Rocky Top Talk	8	22	24	31