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Around SBN: SEC Basketball at the Half

Feeling Out a 3-0 Start

Much has been made about LSU's start, at least within LSU circles. The offense looks terrible. The line isn't blocking. Jordan Jefferson doesn't have great accuracy. We've heard it all. But take a step back and re-assess the games this team has played.

LSU struggled defensively in a win at Washington, but still only allowed 23 points, seven of which came on the final play of the game. That's right, take out the final two minutes of prevent and the last play of the game and the Huskies score the exact amount they put up on USC. Yeah, the same USC that has was all the rage until they lost to the very same U-Dub team the Tigers beat. And LSU traveled across two time zones in doing so. 

Vanderbilt came to town for the home opener and took its 23-9 loss before going home. The Tigers only led by seven in the fourth quarter before a put-the-game-away touchdown drive. However, the previously porous defense allowed just 12 first downs, one-third of which came on the Commodores only scoring drive. Sure the Vandy offense isn't much, but it's defense just showed better against Mississippi State than Auburn did (15 points compared to 24). 

Every one knows ULL is supposed to come in, pick up a check and take their 48-3 pounding. Unfortunately, it didn't work out exactly that way, but it's not like the game was ever in doubt. LSU was methodical, although not spectacular, and scored touchdowns all three times it was in the red zone. Twice, the Tigers started drives inside its own five-yard line and had drives of 10 plays or more that just didn't result in points. They did, however, allow LSU to "flip the field" which helped lead to shorter, scoring drives after that. 

To me, the unease about LSU's first three games comes from two areas. First is last season's 8-5 record. Tiger fans are chomping at the bit to find something that makes them believe that is behind them. They haven't seen it just yet and are beginning to show their nerves. Second is the way LSU has pummeled teams in the past. I've often said over the past five or six years that "nobody throttles a mediocre team like LSU." There were days when the Tigers would trounce a bowl-bound Kentucky team 45-0 or Louisiana Tech 49-7 after being up 42-0 at halftime. That's not happening this year. 

However, I don't think anything is a reason to sound the alarm just yet. While, clearly the performances could have been better, I think it's a fair statement to say that the team has been better each time out than it was the time before. I don't think, at any point in any of the three games, that I've felt like LSU even had a chance to lose. There's something to be said for that. Also, as Richard so astutely pointed out earlier, we're not seeing signs of the things that plagued us last year. Jordan Jefferson is protecting the ball. The defense isn't a sieve. The team's turnover margin is a healthy +3 and even the penalties are down to just 13 for 113 yards total (compared to 22 for 167 for opponents). 

These are all signs that the foundation is there for this team to do some very good things. The only real thing I see missing at this point is the big play. Let's face it, a couple more big plays and the margins of victory are a little larger, the highlights look a little better and everyone is happier. The team's longest run is 21 yards and that was just once. The two longest pass plays were both in game one and had Terrance Tolliver on the receiving end. Brandon LaFell's longest reception is 21 yards. And the return game has been downright pedestrian.

But is it such a stretch to believe that at some point, the big plays will come? There are game-breakers all over the LSU offense. At some point, you have to believe that the hole will open up for Keiland Williams and he will 4.4 his way for 60  yards. Or Terrance Tolliver will beat a defender on a deep ball with his 6'5" frame. Or Brandon LaFell will streak across the middle, catch one in stride and be off to the races. Or heaven forbid Russell Shephard get the ball in space (without fumbling of course). 

Like most of you, I'm on edge too. But mostly because I'm aching for a return to the big time. Right now, LSU, despite being ranked seventh, is pretty much an afterthought in any college football discussion that doesn't take place in the state of Louisiana. The Tigers are as far under the radar as a top 10 team can be. Even the Georgia game will be easily overshadowed by Washington-Notre Dame and USC-Cal. And truth be told, I'm kind of okay with that. Let the team go unnoticed while working out its kinks and trying to put it all together. 

Let them be an afterthought until finally they're put on that stage. On a Saturday Night in Death Valley. On Oct. 10 against the number one team in the country. That night, that game is when we want it all to come together in a perfect storm of defensive dominance and offensive execution. Until then, they work, they improve, but most importantly, they just keep winning.

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Big plays

“But is it such a stretch to believe that at some point, the big plays will come?”

Is it a huge stretch? Maybe not, but I think it’s a fairly substantial one. This offense has had 12 quarters to show whatever big-play ability it has. Why should I expect to see the rate of big plays increase when LSU gets to the meat of the schedule? Unless I read the play by play wrong, LSU’s longest gain against the ULL defense was 21 yards. That’s the longest gain Tennessee had, but they were playing Florida. North Texas had a 32 yard gain against Alabama. Temple had a 36 yard gain against Penn State. Yes, I’m cherry-picking the stats, but you get the point.

Maybe Toliver or Williams can out-athletic somebody against Tulane or Tech and go all the way, but unless the blocking improves dramatically and Jefferson throws a more accurate ball, Crowton’s going to have to rely on longer sustained drives to put up points. Against teams with similar or better talent, execution is more responsible for big plays than athletes. Right now, it’s just not there.

by dan iqua on Sep 21, 2009 4:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

They've Done It Before

It’s hard to me to think that these players that have made big plays in big games in previous seasons have ALL completely lost the ability at the same time. There aren’t many players that make a big play every game. Most do once every other game or once every three or four. It just so happens that all LSU’s players are not making plays at the same time.

I truly believe that it’s only a matter of time until they revert to form and start making plays again. It’s like a home run hitter who gets in a funk. The dingers turn to long outs, single and doubles. That doesn’t mean he won’t hit home runs again, he just has to get back in rhythm. I think that applies to most of the LSU offense right now.

by Purple Reign on Sep 21, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The source of big plays

This assumes that big plays come from individual skill position players “making plays” once they get the ball in their hands. I think this is rarely the case with LSU.

I think that most big plays are the result of running backs having holes to run through, quarterbacks having time to throw, being accurate with the ball when they do, and receivers who can catch and run.

The offensive line has not consistently provided adequate holes for the backs to run through. General consensus is that Keiland Williams has done better than Charles Scott so far, but his longest run through three games is only 16 yards.

In this offense, big plays from the wideouts are dependent on a) Jordan Jefferson being accurate with the ball down the field. He’s not. This isn’t about being in a funk. It’s about developing a skill as a passing quarterback. He doesn’t have that skill yet. b) good execution of screen passes, and nothing about this execution has been good so far.

This problem is bigger than slumping athletes not making plays. It’s about the entire offense not running smoothly. Until the line blocks better and Jefferson becomes a more accurate passer, I think we can forget about a sudden increase in explosive plays.

by dan iqua on Sep 21, 2009 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like your thoughts...

However I think they are a little too rosy. Everyone is going to have their own opinion as to “what is going on” w/ this team. My opinion at this point is more negative than what you describe above. Dan is right when he points out that it doesn’t make sense to expect more big plays against better defenses than we are playing currently.

I agree that the team does look to be improving…but the rate of improvement is very very slow in my opinion.

There are a couple of stats that are very difficult for me to get over.

1.) 478 yds given up against Washington – by any measure that is a ton of yards and I had hoped we wouldn’t give up that many yds to even florida, much-less washington

2.) We gained less yds against ULL than Southern or K-state did. I think we got 330, where the other two got about 380 yds against ULL

I know these stats don’t tell the whole story. I also recognize that everything you say may be true and turn out to be closer to the truth. However, I personally don’t feel as confident.

by Zandor435 on Sep 21, 2009 6:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No Disaster Syndrome

I more or less agree with most of what you wrote. The win against Washington is a solid win. They are a rising program and will surprise some people this year. Vandy is another solid win against an sec program. ULL is better than most give them credit for. They will contend for the sun belt, which is a rising conference.
The only thing that I’m concerned about is the play of the offensive and defensive lines.
They have been disappointing.

by visionary on Sep 21, 2009 8:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Are You Kidding

Are you kidding… first we have no power running game… Our offensive line was better last year, much better, and could get a good push and sustain blocks and because of that Scott was huge. But this year the line is not nearly as effective and because of that Scott is not able to hit the hole fast enough to get more than 2 or 3 yards a carry… yeah, there have been exceptions, but normally… no. The offensive staff is not putting the most effective players on the field. Williams, who hits the hole a lot quicker, should be our every down back (this has been noted on this site before). But we also have a ball-bearing hipped freshman, Shepard, who needs to get the ball in plays other than the “Wild Kitten” formation. Look for him to be less and less effective as he starts playing SEC defenses. Also, we do not have a reliable medium or long passing game. Jefferson will develop, but we are in the same position with QB that we were in last year. Lee should be given a series in each half to run the team and be evaluated. If he starts screwing up then pull him, but if he has matured and grasped the offense better than a year ago, then we are going to need his arm and experience against the SEC foes coming up.
Frankly, unless we start getting smart I can’t see anything better than 8 and 4 at best; with 6 and 6 a real possibility.

by NWTiger on Sep 21, 2009 9:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

are you kidding?

6 & 6?!?!
i have read a lot of silly, over-the-top statements, but that one takes the cake. im assuming you mean every SEC game, or in your delusion, did you toss in a win over moo state, but have the tigers losing to tulane?

no team, not UGA, bama, ole miss nor UF, has looked that impressive against decent competition. they are all beatable, and there is nothing to say lsu cant beat any and all of them.

the season is just getting started, why are you so eager to declare it over?

by in the 9th on Sep 22, 2009 12:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No cohesion...

The team seems to be running some type of glorified scrimmage every game. Experimenting with 5-wide, option, wildcat, power-I, etc. essentially making it hard for the players to perfect any one scheme. The inability to string just two successful plays of any one type whether it be two power runs, two option plays, whatever, is disconcerting.

And as I mentioned in a FanPost, with JJ’s lack of deep throwing accuracy now on full display, teams are going to take their chances by playing their safeties closer to the line, further stifling the running game.

This offensive line is the most ineffective i’ve seen in LSU uniforms this decade…spurring JJ to run out of the pocket and into injury-prone situations. Have to think we’re a year away from another BCS bowl until this group matures.

by TigerPaw on Sep 21, 2009 9:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

the o line doesn't look good

Why did Miles say that this was the best o-line we have ever had possibly? Do you think it was b/c they were being judged against our d-line which can’t stop anything up the middle?

just wondering.

by Zandor435 on Sep 21, 2009 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think there is some truth to that.

Check out this quote from Scott.

"We’re not doing it as much, but there’s gonna come a time when we’re gonna grind it out," said Scott, who has matched Keiland Williams for the team lead with 164 rushing yards. "We can be just as good grinding away because I’ve seen them do it against our defensive line in practice. I still think we’re capable of coming in and rolling over somebody. When we need to do it, we will."

Our D-line is so pathetic that it makes our Offense look great in practice.

by LSU Jonno on Sep 22, 2009 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think our Dline has been ok

They have definitely had a better showing than the Oline thus far.

by Bob Barker on Sep 22, 2009 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you think this team is a year away you are kidding yourself.

Look at our depth chart and check out how much we are losing.

by LSU Jonno on Sep 22, 2009 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed...

I’m still hopeful for this year, but I am concerned for next year.

by Bob Barker on Sep 22, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Normally after a loss I impose a self ban on the internet for a few days.

I’m always pretty optimistic and don’t enjoy reading all the sky is falling stuff. But this year it seems I might have to ban myself after wins too.

by shelby924 on Sep 21, 2009 10:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Until we lose to a team we are supposed to beat, I don’t see the cause for all of the negativity that’s being spouted in these comments. There was a column before the season began that if this Tiger team lost more than 3 or 4 games Les Miles would be on the hot seat. It seems that with the fan base, he could “eke out” a 11-2 season and still be on the hot seat simply because his offense didn’t break any big plays or b/c he complimented his O-line in the preseason. I simply can’t believe that our fans have gotten so spoiled that the loudest voices out there are predicting doom and gloom after a 3-0 start in which none of the games were ever in doubt.

by Displaced Tiger on Sep 22, 2009 7:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we had beaten ULL by any bigger of a margin

There would have been no fans left in the stadium to watch the end of the game.

by shelby924 on Sep 22, 2009 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not So Bad

Things are not so bad as a lot of people are saying. If we can win with a conservative offense, that is what Miles is going to do. That is exactly what LSU has done so far. The defense has improved and the offense has been kept vanilla because we didn’t need any other flavor. Jefferson has not been accurate when LSU has thrown long, but even attemping to go long helps open up intermediate routes. LSU may dial it up a bit against Miss St, but if we are in command, you better bring the topping of your choice, because vanilla is all you are going to get.

by Jababin on Sep 22, 2009 9:44 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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