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Joe McKnight and the Class of 2007


Just a few quick notes here that touch on a lot of issues involving recruiting.  As most of you probably know, Joe McKnight has declared himself eligible for the 2010 NFL Draft, after a 3-year college career that he himself admits was only "OK". 

A little retrospective is in order.  The 2007 signing class was considered a recruiting bonanza for LSU, headlined by 5-stars Chad Jones and Terrance Toliver and backed up by over a dozen other players who were considered to be future stars or solid players.  It was supposed to be a class that was destined to win championships.  Players like Drake Nevis, T-Bob Hebert, Jarrett Lee, and others formed the heart of this class and the future was very bright.  Well, the class won a national championship, but in 2007 very few of those players were significant contributors.  Since then, ho-hum. 

The wet blanket thrown on the class was the defection of All-American, consensus top 5 player in the country, Joe McKnight from John Curtis High School.  He was long considered a lean to LSU.  He was going to be the crown jewel of the Class of 2007, a dynamic, highly athletic player who could potentially be an All-American and even a Heisman candidate at any of 3 different positions: running back, wide receiver, or cornerback.  (I still, to this day, believe his best position would have been cornerback, but that's a whole other column).  He was also going to be a game-changing return man.  Books were written focusing (in part) on his recruitment and what it could mean.

For whatever reason, he ended up spurning LSU's advances and went to the University of Southern California, in an apparent bid to replace Reggie Bush, whose college career is the stuff of legend.

What happened with McKnight and the entire class of 2007 illustrate virtually every point about recruiting that can be made.

1.  Recruiting rankings can be very deceptive and should not be taken as gospel truth.  McKnight's career at USC was solid.  He was a legitimate starting running back when he was healthy.  He made a number of big plays, was relied upon heavily, and if not for his lofty expectations entering school, his career at USC would probably be considered successful.  But it wasn't what people hoped.  He was not even close to the game-changing player that a Reggie Bush was and he was never seriously discussed as a Heisman Trophy candidate at any time in his career past the midway point of any given season.  The same can be said of the rest of LSU's Class of 2007.  Terrance Toliver was not the instant impact player that some fans expected, though he became highly productive this year.  Chad Jones has been kind of up-and-down, making a few spectacular plays (including game-changing plays against Mississippi State in 2009 and against Alabama in 2007), but has struggled to be the consistently dominant presence that was promised early. 

As for the rest of the vaunted class of 2007, have any of those players really fairly exceeded expectations?  Maybe Drake Nevis.  OK, Josh Jasper has.  Anyone else?  Joe Barksdale was a blue-chip recruit as a defensive lineman, but was quickly moved to offensive line and has been, like Joe McKnight, OK.  Others, like Jarvis Jones, Ernest McCoy, Kentravis Aubrey, Phelon Jones, Sidell Corley, and others, have left the program for one reason or another.  Some of those were supposed to be big-time recruits.  Granted, it's still somewhat early in the careers of these players, at least of those who remain, but it is fair to say that most of these players, from what was considered a fantastic signing class, are not destined for All-SEC honors, with Nevis, Jones, and Toliver possibly excepted.  One or two others may surprise us as well, but the point remains: don't believe the hype.  Poseur calls it "New Toy Syndrome". 

There are inherent uncertainties in projecting the future careers of young players.  Personally, I think these recruiting services are becoming less accurate year by year.  Each year, it seems that the established powers are getting high recruiting rankings almost by default.  After all if Texas (or USC, or Ohio State, or Alabama, or Florida, or any other big school) wants a player, that player must be something special, right?  Right?  I think the Class of 2007 got a ratings boost because it was LSU, at a time when LSU was perceived to be a powerhouse who wouldn't recruit anyone besides the best.

2.  It is VERY important to pick the low-hanging fruit.  For all of Joe McKnight's disappointment, he sure would have been a useful player for us.  If nothing else, he would have been a better return man than anyone we had on our roster.  For all of Trindon Holliday's press and novelty appeal, his career as a return man was ho-hum, and he was not a big threat to make a huge return.  He made a couple, but McKnight as a return man would have improved LSU in each of the three years he would have been there.  He arguably would have been our best running back as well, or at least would have split those honors with Charles Scott.  While McKnight would have failed to meet expectations at LSU, he would have improved the team.  Losing a guy from our backyard who would have improved the team is a big loss.

And who knows, if someone at LSU could have convinced him to switch to cornerback, it could have improved that phase of the game in 2008 and 2009 and made a huge difference in the fortunes of the team.

It is rare you get an opportunity to showcase both the importance of recruiting and the dangers of overemphasizing the importance of recruiting at the same time. 

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Nice Wite-Up

Ironic that because the recruit is sought/offered by the top programs their blue chip status is “validated” by the recruiting services and the coaching staffs from those programs are criticized for lack of player development when the players do not live up to expectations created by the recruiting services.

by nedfeldman on Jan 10, 2010 11:29 AM CST reply actions  

I don't believe..

anyone who actually follows recruiting would mistake it as an exact science. I agree with some of your points; I just hope someone doesn’t come in here an turn this into “I knew 2 and 3 star players own 5 stars!!!” or “I would rather have a team full of 2 stars than 5 stars,” because that irritates me to no end.

If they make/win (undecided) it to the SEC Championship game next season then the ’07 class is “off the hook” (both interpretations) in my opinion.

What's up Ryan? ARGHHHHHH!!! oops. ~ Patrick Chewing

by Mikeno on Jan 10, 2010 1:29 PM CST reply actions  

I disagree

There are a LOT of people who, whether they’re willing to admit it to themselves or not, take Scout or Rivals as the gospel. Or believe the 5 minute clip they watched online gives them the total picture of what kind of player somebody is.

Neither, of course, are the case.

by Billy Gomila on Jan 10, 2010 3:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Well..

allow me to rephrase; I don’t think anyone who follows recruiting with more than a cursory glance would make that mistake. But I do know the kind of so called “recruitniks” that you speak of.

What's up Ryan? ARGHHHHHH!!! oops. ~ Patrick Chewing

by Mikeno on Jan 11, 2010 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

A couple of points

First of all, despite the disappointing year Chad Jones had his sophomore year, this past year he did not have any plays made on him, and he came through HUGE with a lot of plays, especially in the clutch (goal line stand, PR for TD, blowing up the Arkansas guy at the goal line and temporarily preventing the go ahead touchdown).

I highly disagree with what you say about McKnight compared to Trindon. McKnight never returned a kickoff or a punt for a TD. Never. His longest punt return was 45 yards, and his longest kickoff return was 26. I can agree with you a little bit that in his first 3 years Trindon was not as consistent as maybe he could’ve been, but he was still a big threat to make a huge play. I can’t believe you’d say otherwise. Arkansas in 06, Ole Miss 07 (and South Carolina, as a running back), North Texas 08 (and one against Ole Miss got called back), and then this year he played great against everyone, notably Georgia, Penn State, and of course Arkansas. Even when he didn’t touch the ball, he helped us. Teams were terrified of him. Remember against Auburn in 07? We get the ball, down ONE POINT, with a minute left, at the FOURTY YARD LINE. Auburn was absolutely terrified of him, and it probably helped us win that game, and a national championship. I can’t believe that you would say McKnight would’ve been the best returner on our team…

I also can’t believe that you would say he would be the best running back. You’re contradicting yourself by saying that he wasn’t that good, but then he would’ve been great at LSU. Unless you just think that USC’s talent is that much better, I don’t understand it. I would take Charles Scott every single day of the week over McKnight. In fact, I would even take this year’s version of Keiland Williams over McKnight. They both ran harder, and weren’t scared of contact.

by Ianoka on Jan 10, 2010 6:56 PM CST reply actions  

I totally agree with Ianoka

Chad Jones has been anything but a disappointment and I pray he stays, with he and PP on the corners next year it will be special.

Trindon Holiday was great as a return man and frankly our field position advantage (that as an offense we squandered) was precisely because people would not kick it to him.

I also think it’s too early to close the book on the 07’ class as many of them will be starting in 2010 and 2011(red shirts) but I do think Joe McKnight was a bust and I’m glad he went to USC (where he is likely to be the cause of sever sanctions for the Trojans) instead of LSU.

Kind of like I’m glad Janzen Jackson went to UT to commit Armed Robbery.

GEAUX TIGERS!!!

by SouthernMan on Jan 11, 2010 6:18 AM CST up reply actions  

with he and PP on the corners next year it will be special.

Chad Jones plays safety.

by LSU Jonno on Jan 11, 2010 8:14 AM CST up reply actions  

OK, but he and PP are still two of the best DBacks in the country

and CJ was often used in one on one coverage, much like a corner….

GEAUX TIGERS!!!

by SouthernMan on Jan 11, 2010 8:28 AM CST up reply actions  

I didn't say he woul dhave been great at LSU..

and I was pretty careful to say that while he didn’t live up to the hype, he was a decent player at USC. Not everything is an extreme of either suckitude or greatness. McKnight was a good player, who would have been able to help us, but didn’t live up to his awesome hype.

Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.

And The Valley Shook

by Richard Pittman on Jan 11, 2010 7:45 AM CST up reply actions  

McKnight = Keiland

I just don’t see any difference between the two. It’s the same skill set and both failed to live up to their massive hype, while still being a contributor.

Oh, and I would LOVE for Chad Jones to move to linebacker a la Coleman so Loston can play safety. I think Jones is big enough to play LB without losing any speed.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com

by Poseur on Jan 11, 2010 8:48 AM CST up reply actions  

in regards to trindon

as an opposing fan, i can’t think of a single lsu player in the last 20 years that i feared more, that did less. just my opinion.

by gerry dorsey on Jan 10, 2010 7:40 PM CST reply actions  

I think that’s kind of what Ianoka was saying, and as a fan I like hearing you say that :) Even when Trindon didn’t return kicks for omgyardz, the option was to either kick to him and take the risk (which some teams this year did to their regret) or avoid him and yield field position.

Texas had the same mentality about Arenas last Thursday too. But I noticed it three kicks before the announcers, I swear.

by ORtigerfan on Jan 10, 2010 8:14 PM CST up reply actions  

That's because no one kicked to him, ever

When they did he regretted it. Some PSU fan was saying Trindon can’t be that great because our kickoff return average was middle of the pack . But a lot of those returns were 6 yard returns by Kelvin Sheppard on pop up kicks. Pulls down the return average, but we still started the drive on the 40 yard line.

One of my primary bones to pick with Crowton is the fact that Holliday got used less and less every year on offense and his shifting to being a pure return specialist(a decline that mirrors Holliday’s quarkback predecessor Skyler Green’s career)

by 4.0 Point Stance on Jan 11, 2010 2:18 PM CST up reply actions  

This is another reason why I can't understand

why we didn’t use Russell Shepard back there with Holliday on KO returns. Nothing at all against Ron Brooks, but no one would have ever kicked it farther than the 30 yard line.

CHAD JONES! WOOOO!!!!

by The Bengal on Jan 11, 2010 2:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I could understand the Shepard thing for one reason

And that is he looks like he weighs as much as Trindon, except he’s a lot taller. Of course if it wasn’t that, then you’re right, it was a very stupid decision. Although one more possibility might be his hands, but then why put him at receiver? Haha I’m confusing myself thinking out loud here, the staff’s got to be wrong one way or another…

by Ianoka on Jan 11, 2010 8:45 PM CST up reply actions  

trindon got his fair share of ko's

punting away from him maybe, but not kicking.

2 seconds of research shows that in the last 3 years holliday returned 66 kicks in 38 games. or a little less than 2 a game. during that time lsu probably averaged receiving about 4 ko’s per game. so he essentially has returned every other kickoff for lsu for the last 3 years. doesn’t sound like he was being avoided to me.

by gerry dorsey on Jan 11, 2010 5:07 PM CST up reply actions  

I like how you were precise with the number of KOs

but used probably to give the number of opportunities.

nice try.

GEAUX TIGERS!!!

by SouthernMan on Jan 11, 2010 6:28 PM CST up reply actions  

tell me where

to find the number and i’ll throw it in there. i don’t have the kind of free time you obviously do to spend talking college football on the internet.

over the last three years lsu has given up an average of somewhere around 20 ppg. that’s “around” 3 kickoffs, plus one either at the beginning of the game of the second half. feel free to do the research, but i’ll bet i was close enough to not make it worth the time.

bottom line…trindon got his opportunities. even by challenging my estimation it doesn’t take away from the fact that he got nearly 2 returns a game.

by gerry dorsey on Jan 11, 2010 7:28 PM CST up reply actions  

It's your point

you do the research.

But I promise you we gave up a lot more field goals than touchdowns and that could as much as double your opportunities.

And it’s not like he didn’t do anything with the opportunities he had. He had many solid returns setting us up for short fields and he took one back here and there.

You can try to twist the statistics however you want but opponents went out of their way not to put the ball in his hands. (smart call)

GEAUX TIGERS!!!

by SouthernMan on Jan 12, 2010 5:51 AM CST up reply actions  

takes too long

i like to do research in 30 second intervals.

how’s this then…trindon wasn’t in the top 10 in the sec in kickoff return average in 2009. he had 20 returns, and the guys in 1st and 2nd each had 19 returns (so they were seemingly “avoiding” them equally), yet the guys in 1st and 2nd place averaged 5.9 and 5.3 more yards per return respectively. what did i twist this time??

by gerry dorsey on Jan 12, 2010 8:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Pretty close estimate, Gerry

143 returns over 40 games = 3.575 returns per game

Year Returns Games
2009 47 14
2008 54 13
2007 42 13

by The Bengal on Jan 12, 2010 9:31 AM CST up reply actions  

2007 Rankings

Regarding the quality of the rankings, I can’t help thinking about the coach (I think from South Carolina) who claimed that they were a joke, and that he was responsible for Chris Culliver being bumped from a 3-star to a 5-star just by talking to the right person at Rivals. There are still some elite recruits who go on to be 1st or 2nd round picks, allowing the services to claim success at a certain level.

I’m a little ho hum on the Chad Jones bandwagon. He’s emerged as a hitter and has made some big plays, but I’d like to see him do more in coverage before I label him as one of the best safeties in the country. Right now I’m not sure his game translates to the NFL.

As for McKnight, his recruiting story taught me one important lesson: there is no such thing as a must-have recruit, at least for a program at the level that LSU is now. McKnight chose USC, the poo hit the fan, LSU won the national championship, and McKnight had a so-so college career. Get as many good players as you can, but don’t freak out over the one that got away. Miles put it well afterward when he noted that not every Louisiana player is destined to go to LSU. It doesn’t bother me as much anymore when “the best player in the state” goes someplace else.

by dan iqua on Jan 11, 2010 9:28 AM CST reply actions  

It's a numbers game

I agree completely with this:

Get as many good players as you can, but don’t freak out over the one that got away.

Recruiting is important but it is not vital to get a specific guy. It’s about numbers. You get enough highly rated recruits, one or two should live up to the hype.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com

by Poseur on Jan 11, 2010 9:31 AM CST up reply actions  

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