Behind the Numbers: LSU v Tennessee
by Poseur on Oct 4, 2010 7:44 PM CDT
in Football
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PrintWe won the box score! We won the box score!
215. LSU's yards passing. LSU almost had more yards passing than Tennessee had in total offense (217). LSU did have more yards rushing (219) than Tennessee had total yards. LSU was perfectly balanced, and totally dominant in yards, relative to Tennessee.
-4. Turnover margin. This was the key stat of the game, with Jefferson's picks being particularly ugly. He threw a pick on 20% of his pass attempts.
3. The number of 100-yard rushers in the game. For a game in which yards came at a premium, there were a lot of guys who topped the century mark: Jefferson (100), Poole (109), and Ridley (123). Ridley's final run was all effort. Doesn't show up on the box score, but that was an awesome, awesome run.
4. The number of LSU running backs with a carry. Spencer Ware also had a reception. Ridley is obviously y the #1 back, but the coaches seemed more comfortable going to the bench on Saturday. Even Michael Ford got two unremarkable carries. Richard Murphy had two very noticeable carries, for all the wrong reasons.
0 for 2. Tennessee's fourth down conversions. Twice, LSU's defense stopped the Vols when the went for it on fourth. The second time may have been the biggest play of the game.
14 seconds. Tennessee's time of possession advantage. Is there a more overrated stat?
48.2. The average Tennessee punt. Palardy punted the hell out of the ball, booting it over 50 yards 3 different times. Had Tennessee won, he might have been the MVP. What a great game bottling up Zod.
69. LSU's number of offensive plays. And Bill and Ted's favorite number.
13. Well, you know.
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I know I'm gonna feel retarded once I see the answer
But what’s 13?
Number of Volunteers on the field
on the would-be last play. Someone called it their 9-4 formation, which still ain’t legal.
This:
very funny read
I am cracking up laughing at that, and I’m pretty sure I’ve read it at least five times already.
LSU Football: See the cat? See the cradle?
yeah it is a good read
i love this line.
Though they’ve been on the two yard line ever since the pass interference penalty, the LSU offensive staff suddenly remembers OH MY GOD WE HAVE A GOAL LINE PACKAGE and sets off a fire drill the People’s Republic of China would call “disgracefully hurried and chaotic.”
I think my favorites were the bold sentence, the LSU 7.5-2 Florida prediction, and
a Tennessee team playing a lawn chair at center, a Tennessee team with linebackers whose ACLs explode for no reason, a Tennessee team whose depth chart just reads “NOPE” at no fewer than seven major positions.
LSU Football: See the cat? See the cradle?
We won the box score! We won the box score!
Haven’t been able to say that often; gotta enjoy it.
69. LSU’s number of offensive plays. And Bill and Ted’s favorite number.
Dude…. Most excellent.
/air guitar
................................
The total yards zealots...
… tend to tick me off. All we’ve heard is how lucky and unsustainable this team is because LSU hasn’t been winning the yardage game (ignoring the fact LSU was winning the yardage game if you count special teams). LSU finally dominates total yards, and all we hear is how lucky LSU is to win.
Yards matter. Points matter more. Tennessee had two good drives, but both resulted in touchdowns. Of their 217 yards, 134 of them were on drives that resulted in points. Only 83 of them were “wasted”. And actually, another 49 were on their clock killing final drive. Which means on all drives except those three, UT gained 34 yards. When their drives failed, it really failed.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
Yeah..
those people are dumb and ignore the fact that this team — for the last 2 seasons — has won many of its game’s despite being out gained AAAAND out T.O.P’d.
/EVILGLAREINCROWTONSDIRECTION
................................
It's called special teams
LSU’s are really, really good (and were last year as well). It’s the “hidden” and “wasted” yards where the simple analysis of just looking at total yards completely fails. If a team keeps winning despite what you think the numbers should say, perhaps it’s time to ask yourself if you’re looking at the right numbers.
It’s the steadfast refusal of some people to look deeper into LSU’s yardage totals while loudly declaring that LSU is going to lose the next game and being consistently wrong that has really chafed me. Especially that after LSU wins the game that they pick us to lose, it’s dismissed as just luck. No, maybe it’s that you’re not accounting for special teams play. (not you, mikenko, I’m just sick of reading on the same sites each week that LSU is going to lose, and then refusing to give the team credit when it defies said prediction on the grounds that the team LSU beat wasn’t very good).
I’m just sick of it. If a team keeps winning, maybe it’s doing SOMETHING right.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I need someone to write a book on the 2009 and 2010 LSU teams.
Crowton is obviously not as dumb as he seems. There has to be a disconnect between him and Miles. Those two aren’t compatible. I just don’t understand Miles’ decision to keep Crowton around…
This doesn’t add up.
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
He really is
Crowton’s track record speaks for itself – every where he has gone it has been the exact same thing as what we’re seeing here. Add to that the rumors that Miles wanted to fire him last year and the board denied it because of the buyout cost, and it all adds up.
Now, why leave Crowton any responsibilities at all other than getting coffee for everyone else is a better question.
Here is the thing
Crowon has a brain, he is a professional. I’m assuming he doesn’t have a mental defect and is of at least average intelligence.
Why would he want to spend another year butting heads with Miles? I really don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to predict that the offense was going to blow this year if you are an “insider”. As the Offensive Coordinator Crowton’s reputation is going to take a beating after this year. At this point, at the end of the year, Crowton and possibly Miles will be fired. There is no saving Crowton, Miles may be spared depending on if we lose to Bama by 3 or 35.
Crowton deserves an equal amount of blame as Miles for the horrible clock mismanagement in the Ole Miss game last year and now the Tennessee game last year. If Crowton’s career wsan’t already ruined from his performance last year, it certainly will be after this year. And he had to have seen it coming. Why did he return?
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
Because no one walks away from a $450k salary
without another job lined up.
LSU - "...the defense you want to be and your girl wants to be with."
People leave jobs every day to save face.
Besides, he could have gotten a job somewhere, it just wouldn’t be as high profile…
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
One other point...
I know it was only a part of one game…
But how can I sit here and see the kind of numbers that J. Lee put up compared to JJ and not assume that they are putting up those same numbers roughly in practice?
Again, I know it was only part of one game…But how can there be THAT BIG OF A DIFFERENCE in QB production such that J. Lee wasn’t the starting QB from the beginning of the season.
This doesn’t add up.
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
Not saying I have an answer
To the overall question, but on the subject of practice versus games, trust me, players can look radically different.
The best example I ever heard was from somebody about Jarrett Lee’s first pick-6 to Darryl Gamble in the 2008 UGA game. Summarized:
“They practiced that play all week. It was the scripted first play. And they kept telling him over and over again, whatever you do, don’t stare down the first option and go through your progressions. And what did he do when the game started? Stared down his first option and threw it.”
by Billy Gomila on Oct 5, 2010 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Basically
Lee did what he was told all week…and then did the exact opposite in the actual game.
And that’s a specific instance that comes to mind, but it’s more common than you think.
Not that I’m saying that’s the case with Lee and Jefferson now, just illustrating how things can look so radically different in a game vs. practice.
by Billy Gomila on Oct 5, 2010 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Understand
But let’s just say that the JJ dumb plays equal the J. Lee dumb plays at this point.
J. Lee makes WAY more good plays than JJ at this point. JJ isn’t balancing out his bad plays. J. Lee is, and it doesn’t appear to be close.
I know I have a very small sample size, but J. Lee has never been, and still doesn’t seem to be a player that thrives on game-time pressure situations. I thought that last drive was going to be the end of Lee forever, yet he continued to move the ball, and do it better than anyone at any point this entire season.
Have the coaches not seen any of that in practice? THIS DOESN’T ADD UP! This stuff doesn’t just happen! Magical savior QB’s aren’t just sitting on the bench waiting to be put in the game. There is a lot more going on behind the scenes than we know.
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
I would say
“Magical savior” is a bit of strong word. But to be honest, I don’t have an answer.
My best guess is, they fear Lee’s worst more than they fear Jefferson’s worst. And to a degree, I can understand that.
by Billy Gomila on Oct 5, 2010 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I would say "Magical savior" is a bit of strong word.
Very true.
I also get your point about whose worst is worse…
Nothing on the offensive side of the football is making sense right now though. I can’t come up with one logical explanation that begins to describe the Miles/Crowton dynamic and the JJ/J. Lee QB evaluation.
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
The big difference
is that up until the Vanderbilt game, JJ’s dumb plays were minimized. He didn’t throw interceptions and he had an acceptable completion percentage, even if it wasn’t for a lot of yardage. I don’t know what happened to him between the Carolina game and the Vanderbilt game, but he’s been terrible for four straight games now.
I imagine Miles & Co. were hoping JJ would return to form and they could run a low risk boring offense and wait for special teams and D to give them good field position. With JJ turning into an interception machine, you might as well go with the equally risky QB with higher big play upside. It’s still not a great position to be in.
LSU - "...the defense you want to be and your girl wants to be with."
...
the JJ dumb plays prevented us from scoring but so did the JLee dumb plays. the difference is that the JJ good plays scored a touchdown while the JLee good plays put us in position to do another.
They both bring good things and they both make mistakes. I really think it’s something the coaches are in the best position to decide
Take that, you bastards!
On T-Bob’s dad’s radio show someone likened the stubbornness of Miles to that of Jim Haslett who tried to run Aaron Brooks down Saints fans’ throats.
I think a better analogy is Jim Mora refusing to fire Carl Smith
Top 5 defense; bottom 5 offense.
Although Bobby may not have taken too kindly to that comparison
Don't Panic.
by 4.0 Point Stance on Oct 5, 2010 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm with you. I want the Tigers to win first and foremost--anyone who went through the Hallman years will never think any other way. Right?
If we can blow at team out fine, but get the win no matter how. Some people eat that total yards thing up, so I threw it out there some already this week. They are the same people who will argue their team dominated because of these stats even with out the win—bullshit. Saints fan here, and these issues remind me of Frank Gore in week 2 talking all that shit about how they really dominated the Saints and the Saints did not belong on the same field bullshit—they won the total yards 417 to 287 for the Saints also, but hey man, look at the fucking scoreboard, you lost. Get the win and back it up with stats if you want to but that crap is just icing on a cake.
It is irritating when looking around the net, but I have gotten more used to it. While their are some that are starting to slowly come around, there is a solid group that will never be impressed with anything LSU does. We could be fucking undefeated, win the NC, and they would still say the same things—fuck those people.
Those Two Words
Curley Hallman – have been why I couldn’t really support firing Miles. I had a knee jerk reaction the other day after the end of the game and wanted him gone but now after calming down I am back to being frightened to hire another Hallman that craters our program.
At this point I just have to hope that GC really is running the whole offense.
I think LSU fans forget the dark ages of the 90s – I haven’t.
by DalTiger on Oct 5, 2010 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
We won the box score! We won the box score!
The new phone book is here! The new phone book is here!
by andyj on Oct 4, 2010 10:59 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
The Board HAS to be the reason Crowton wasn't fired after last year
Why hasn’t his non-firing gotten more attention?
Alas, considering the Tigers can’t move the ball with any regularity against the weakest part of its schedule, he’s as good as gone soon as the season ends — buyout or not.
Such a shame. Had the Tigers brought in someone, anyone — literally: ANYONE — as OC this year, they’d be in the Top 5 and a National Championship contender. Crowton is solely to blame for the failed expectations of the last two seasons. He is the one weak link, and boy, is he weak — undoubtedly the single worst OC in all of college football.
Enjoy the undefeatedness, kids — not only is that about to end, but so are all hopes for a good season. It’s about to get ugly.
It's not all on Crowton...
Something isn’t adding up.
One man can screw up this bad. He needs help.
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
That should have read...
One man can’t screw up this bad…He needs help.
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
not one, but
two and a half men:
1 for Crowton – he deserves his blame for crappy offense, as he’s the offensive coordinator and he just hasn’t produced
1 for Jefferson – although not absolutely terrible last year, this year he deserves his blame for not doing a damn thing on the field. when Lee was on the field Saturday, at least i felt that we had a chance to do something offensively. Jefferson’s time was a waste of plays
1/2 for Miles – Miles will only ever be as good as his coaching staff, and he can give his coordinators too much leeway when he should be taking the reins. hard to say among speculation that Miles has handcuffed Crowton b/c we just don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes. ultimately, Les will be the one axed if something doesn’t change for the better, but he gets only a half share of blame here for not directly effing up the offense.
I agree
Crowton doesn’t go from the genius of the 07 offense to just all of a sudden not knowing how to coach.
Not so sure
I think Matt Flynn does not get enough credit – he was a really good QB and very bright – he could handle all of Crowton’s myriad BS and run it. The guys we have now can’t – we won the QB lottery from 2001-2007 (with a Randall thrown in to break the consecutive streak) – now we are going to go possibly 4 years without a servicable QB and it hurts and is multiplied by GC’s absolute need for a good QB to make his system work at all.
To me GC is either too stubborn to dumb it down or he just doesn’t know how to do it. I fall towards stubborn b/c we continue to run the option with JJ even though everyone in the world can see he is not comfortable doing it and is bad at it. That 83 yard run was a fluke – nice play by him but still a fluke.
He's done it before.
This link is getting old, but evidently, some folks still have not read it. Click here for Crowton’s track record.
I've read that article 5 times...
Maybe it is all Crowton.
I just can’t understand why he is still on staff. If Miles wanted to fire him and the board wouldn’t let him, Miles could have demoted him. There is no way that Miles is going to let the board run his team. Miles has a brain too.
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
Which is why Miles is just as responsible for the offense as Crowton
The only difference is that Crowton will be the one getting fired at the end of the season (if not sooner).
LSU - "...the defense you want to be and your girl wants to be with."
I'm not sure Miles survives.
I’m really hoping that Lee rides in on his white horse and saves this team, but odds are that we drop games to UF, AU, ARK, and Bama.
If you had told me before the season that we’d go 4-4 in conference and ask me would Les still be our coach in 2011 I’d say yes, without a doubt. But after the UNC debacle and clock mismanagement part 2 I’m not sure that 4-4 gives him another year. Nor do I want him back next year.
Also, 4-4 isn’t a given. Ole Miss found their offense, and if we drop two to bama and AU another 2008 collapse isn’t out of the question.
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
See here
The biggest problem is that Crowton’s offense is, and always has been, a loose collection of plays without any unifying theme.
You're right...
Crowton certainly deserves a lot of blame here, but clearly something is wrong all around. Miles is the head man… the good, bad and the despicable all fall on him. If Miles were to order a simplification of this offense to one that better favors the player’s strengths, I’d have a lot more confidence in him.
What irritates me is that, on Saturday, Miles hintly strongly that he'd do just this
By Monday’s presser he backed down big time.
Don't Panic.
by 4.0 Point Stance on Oct 5, 2010 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Honestly
This is why I pretty much never listen to Miles’ press conference. Saban was more forthcoming.
And to be honest, even if he were totally honest about these things, it really wouldn’t make anybody feel better.
I agree about Matt Flynn.
He covered a multitude of sins for the 2007 season.
We don’t have the kind of QB that make this “wizard” offense work. And instead of dialing it back into our strengths—we just keep trying wizardry at every turn, including bringing in JJ to run…when he is by no means the best running QB we have.
Probably the most discouraging thing that happened this weekend...
The LSU coaching staff managed to turn the national media’s attention from the greatest CB in the country to Clock Mismanagement 2.
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7
no kidding
i guess our PP Heisman joy ride is over…maybe he’ll make some noise this weekend.
right now, i am w/ denard for heisman. that kid is completely carrying that team.
I think you're right about Denard, but for obvious reasons I'm wanting LaMichael James.
BTW, Oregon has posted that LMJ is leading the nation in rushing yards vs AP-ranked teams. Considering
a) the Ducks have played one such game
b) the Tigers have played two
and
c)
that pisses me off.
LSU Football: See the cat? See the cradle?
What's the definition of run effectivness?
Where can we find numbers for other schools or our other games?
I listed it in some of the other By the Numbers pieces
Run effectiveness is a stat the Football Outsiders calculate as kind of a measure of your run game’s consistency, and the value of different runs. A run is effective if it:
-picks up at least 40% of the needed yardage on first down (so 4 yards on a first and 10)
-60% of needed yardage on second down
-100% of yardage on third down
Basically, not all runs are created equal. They will also occasionally weight it differently (as in, runs in the 4th quarter when you’re trying to ice a lead are more valuable) but I’m not as sure of the formulas, and, well, I hate math. But generally, you want to be over 50 percent and most good teams hover in the 50s. And I know we were in the UNC, State and WVU games for sure. WVU was the season-high (I believe) at 63%.
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SEC Baseball Standings
Last Update: May 19
# - SEC Tournament Seeding
Team Name = Eliminated from SEC Tournament
| West | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
1 LSU Tigers  |
19 | 11 | 42 | 14 |
| 6 Arkansas Razorbacks |
16 | 14 | 39 | 17 |
| 7 Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
16 | 14 | 34 | 21 |
| 9 Mississippi Rebels |
14 | 16 | 34 | 22 |
| 10 Auburn Tigers |
13 | 17 | 30 | 26 |
| |
9 | 21 | 21 | 34 |
| East | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
| 2 South Carolina Gamecocks |
18 | 11 | 39 | 15 |
| 4 Kentucky Wildcats |
18 | 12 | 41 | 15 |
| 3 Florida Gators |
18 | 12 | 40 | 16 |
| 5 Vanderbilt Commodores |
16 | 14 | 29 | 25 |
| 8 Georgia Bulldogs |
14 | 15 | 31 | 24 |
|
8 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
