FanPost

"So you are saying there's a chance!"


 

Let's take a closer look at the BCS standings as of today:

 

  BCS Harris Poll USA Today Computer Rankings
RK TEAM AVG PVS RK PTS % RK PTS % AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 Oregon .9764 1 1 2793 .9800 1 1459 .9892 2 2 2 5 2 2 2 .960
2 Auburn .9682 2 2 2727 .9568 2 1398 .9478 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1.000
3 TCU .8995 3 4 2557 .8972 4 1300 .8814 3 3 1 2 4 5 3 .920
4 Boise State .8860 4 3 2619 .9189 3 1341 .9092 5 5 3 4 6 7 6 .830
5 LSU .8193 5 6 2227 .7814 6 1175 .7966 4 4 5 3 5 3 4 .880
6 Stanford .7763 6 7 2209 .7751 8 1112 .7539 6 10 9 6 3 4 5 .800
7 Wisconsin .7688 7 5 2295 .8053 5 1211 .8210 8 8 7 12 9 9 10 .680

 

Now what if....

First off - the 'givens'. For this entire hypothetical situation to take place ( and yes, there are other possible ways for this to happen, but I feel this one is most likely ), two things HAVE to happen:

1. LSU must beat Arkansas

2. Alabama must beat Auburn.

 

So what would that mean?

Well, first off, LSU, by beating the currently 12th ranked team in the BCS, will move up. In the human polls, they would more than likely jump Wisconsin at least ( who plays a 7-4 Northwestern ) and a chance at moving past TCU. Take a look at the computer values an notice that the computers are already pushing LSU past Wisconsin and add that to the fact that TCU is playing a 1-10 team this week ( ie. their computer value is going to go down ) and LSU moves up at least 1 spot in the BCS rankings.

Now what would #2 mean?

Voters have this 'need' to move teams down when they lose. #2 could lose to #1 by 1 point in a 14th overtime and voters will move #2 down from their ranking; its just the way the voters are. So if Auburn loses to Alabama, how far down do they go? Definitely past TCU & Boise St and more than likely past LSU, maybe even Wisconsin. Combine that with an LSU win and Auburn would definitely be behind LSU.

"But Xan, Auburn beat us head to head!"

"Cus its like a circle..."

 

The voters know enough to know Auburn beat LSU, LSU beat Alabama, and Alabama ( in this scenario ) beat Auburn. My prediction is, if given my two 'must happens' happening, that going into conference championship weekend, the rankings would be:

 

1. Oregon

2. Boise State

3. LSU

4. TCU

5. Auburn

 

A win in the SECCG, versus the #18th ranked BCS team ( South Carolina ), doesn't effect Auburn's opponent win percentage by much more than 1%, ie. Auburn could move past TCU, but I don't think they would jump LSU.

Depending on voters, computer rankings, and especially a loss by Oregon or Boise St - not to mention another loss by Auburn in the SECCG - if my two hypotheticals play out, don't be surprised to see LSU possibly playing for another nation title.

I've said it all year - I have a feeling this could be a very special year!

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