2010 LSU And SEC Bowl Projections
by PodKATT on Nov 28, 2010 10:08 PM CST
in Football
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PrintIt's likely to be the big question repeated ad nauseum over the next few days for all us Tiger fans, so lets break it down. Since there is only 1 SEC game to be played, we'll do a few sets of projections based on both possible outcomes.
But first, the bowl selection order for the SEC (Yes, I am holding on to the old bowl names as long as there is a breath in my body)
- BCS
- Citrus (Capitol One)[Best available after BCS]
- Cotton [Best available West]
- Hall of Fame (Outback) [Best available East]
- Peach (Chick Fil A)
- Gator
- Music City [Pick order interchangeable to provide a better matchup as determined by SEC]
- Liberty [Pick order interchangeable to provide a better matchup as determined by SEC]
- Dixie (BBVA Compass, formerly PapaJohns.com)
The list can go either way depending on if SCar can pull the upset, but the conference is at least in the enviable position of having 10 bowl-eligible teams. Only Vandy and Ole Miss will stay home this year (Say it again, it makes you feel good every time you say it.)
Shreveport residents take note that the Indy bowl is no longer a tie-in for either the SEC or the Big 12. Instead you get ACC #7 vs Mountain #3, which I'm going to project as North Carolina (7-5) vs San Diego State (8-4). It should be noted that Boston College could be chosen as the ACC opponent instead and that SD State is actually the MWC #4, but moves up due to TCU's projected Rose Bowl berth.
Scenario #1 Auburn wins
- Auburn (BCS - Championship Game) v BCS #2
- Arkansas (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- LSU (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- Bama (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- S Car (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Miss St (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Florida (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Kentucky (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Lots of caveats to the above. If ILL beats Fresno St. this week, they could swap with Iowa (same record, no head-to-head), depriving us of seeing ZOOK face UF in Jacksonville. The Music and Liberty Bowls are both in Tennessee, but the Music has expressed interest in bringing the Vols to Nashville, so I see the SEC making that happen, even though UGA has a head-to-head win. And for sheer insanity, remember that Pitt could also win the Big East title this weekend. Wannstache, you sly dog.
Mich St. is the #3 B10 team, but the loser of the 3 way tie for the B10 title only because of BCS rankings. Dantonio has already given himself a heart attack because of a game, imagine what Les will do to him (too soon?) It will be the 3rd Big 10 Team Les Miles has faced in a bowl as LSU head coach (4th if you want to count Notre Dame)
Scenario #2 Auburn loses and is pushed out of the Championship Game
- S Car (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- Auburn (BCS - Rose ) v BCS B10 Champ (Wisconsin)
- Arkansas (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- LSU (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- Florida (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Bama (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Miss St. (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Kentucky (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Thanks to their passing of Oregon last night for the BCS #1, there is some speculation that Auburn could still make the title game. Let's assume for now that they don't, but are still ranked high enough to get an at-large spot. Auburn becomes the 4th SEC team to ever go to the Rose. Everyone gets knocked down a peg, and we get a potential match-up with a pissed off Bo Pelini and Neb squad in the Jerry Dome.
Scenario #3 Auburn loses and is NOT pushed out of the Championship Game
- S Car (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- Auburn (BCS - Championship) v BCS #1
- Arkansas (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- LSU (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- Florida (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Bama (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Miss St. (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Kentucky (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Not much change (though TCU fans will be pissed) if you're a fan of the BCS looking so stupid that it breaks, this is your dream scenario.
Scenario #4 Auburn loses and is pushed out of the BCS
- S Car (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- Auburn (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- Arkansas (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- Florida (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- LSU (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Bama (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Miss St. (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Georgia (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
- Kentucky ???? (no bowl tie-in left, will fill empty spot somewhere else)
A real nightmare here as everyone falls down 2 pegs. In a year when the West is clearly better than the East, It's S Car that is the lone BCS team. We'll see an ACC team in the GA Dome to bookend the year, Miss St. falls all the way to the Liberty (Music still would have the ability to pull UT), UGA goes to Birmingham, and Kentucky fills an empty slot somewhere. Remember that this only happens if Auburn loses badly enough to drop all the way out of the BCS. We are talking a collapse of epic proportions.
Scenario #5 Auburn wins and Cam Newton Ruled Ineligible, Wins Vacated.
- Arkansas (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- LSU (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- Bama (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- S Car (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Florida(Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Miss St.(Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Kentucky(Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Scenario #6 Auburn loses and Cam Newton Ruled Ineligible, Wins Vacated.
- S Car (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- Arkansas (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- LSU (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- Florida (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Bama (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Miss St. (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Kentucky (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Here's a fun exercise. The only difference in either is that Auburn isn't bowling. (Not trolling, Auburn fans, just laying out the hypothetical. We all know the NCAA won't be able to rule Cam ineligible until after Auburn wins the championship).
(OK, trolling just a bit there)
Alternate projections are welcome in the comments below (LSU v A&M in the Cotton is a popular one, but not likely unless the B-12 pulls some shenanigans to screw with Nebraska) Those looking to get a head start on scouting potential opponents should start with these blogs:
Mich St. The Only Colors
Nebraska Corn Nation
FSU Tomahawk Nation
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SCar will play them tough, but I think Auburn wins. I do hope we play Sparty in the Citrus.
If Auburn wins the SECCCG and Cam is not ruled ineligible before the NC game, I will pull for them—they are SEC after all. I have wanted to congratulate them for wining the West or if they win the SEC but I can’t do it for a while with all that crap out there. I really hope it is an non-issue by then and begins to fade away, hopefully not to come out later—that would be sad. If the Hogs play the Bucks in the Sugar, I hope the Hogs run/pass all day and light them up. Bama vs Neb or Okl would be a great match-up. Wisc. vs TCU in the Rose will be interesting if that happens—TCU has a good D, go Frogs!
(Real) Havey Pekar: I felt more alone that week than any. Sometimes I'd feel a body lying next to me like an amputee feels a phantom limb. All I did was think about Jennie Gerhardt and Alice Quinn and all the decades of people I had known. The more I thought, the more I felt like crying. Life seemed so sweet and so sad, and so hard to let go of in the end. But hey, man, every day is a brand new deal, right? Just keep on working and something's bound to turn up."
From the movie "American Splendor"
Couldn't we still make the Sugar?
At least hypothetically? The Sugar gets to pick the team, they’re not locked into picking the team that finished 2nd. Wouldn’t a hometown LSU team with the same record as Arkansas be extremely attractive? I’m thinking a little bit of when Kansas passed Missouri in 07 even though Missouri had beat them head to head…
Yeah, I would be surprised at that as well.
Arky travels pretty well, & NOLA is not a long trip for them. Plus, it’s their first time in any BCS bowl. They earned it.
by artiger on Nov 29, 2010 7:45 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I would happily switch with Bama
If AU wins, and Arky gets the Sugar, I would be quite happy with the Tigers in Dallas instead of that shit fest of a bowl in Orlando.
Would the Cap 1
Take LSU two years in a row? I know they’ve hesitated to do that in the past.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
Would WE want to go 2 years in a row?
Did the Citrus Bowl ever fix that god awful field situation?
I must create my belief system lest I be enslaved by another - Thomas Paine
by Curtis Bleaux on Nov 29, 2010 11:32 AM CST up reply actions
I believe the plan was to install field turf this year
But I have no idea if that’s happened.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Nov 29, 2010 11:34 AM CST up reply actions
They did
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-citrus-bowl-debut-20101118,0,1249934.story
Still have no desire to go there. Jerryworld over Disney world.
I'm proud of my damn strong football team. Have a great day!
by Mikethetiger on Nov 29, 2010 6:26 PM CST up reply actions
If Auburn wins are vacated...
…which is incredibly unlikely, I think LSU would go to a BCS bowl. I don’t think the Sugar is required to take the highest BCS ranked team, they just have to give preference to an SEC team if they lose the SEC champ to the title game. Still, head to head matters, and I think they’ll take Arkansas.
The Citrus will likely not pass over a 2-loss LSU team to select a 3-loss Bama team, so if Auburn wins, we’re likely in Orlando again. If SC wins, I think we’re staring at the Cotton. Which sucks, because of bizarre Christamas plans, I’ll be out of town for the game.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
On a different note
I just spoke to an insane UF fan who said that they were happy LSU lost because LSU (and CLM in particular) gets so many “lucky wins.” She even pointed to our “good luck” in the Arkansas game. I kept calm simply pointed out that she had very clearly bought into the “Les is lucky meme” because, if anything, LSU was extremely unlucky in the Arkansas game…multiple Arky fumbles/muffs that went straight back to their players whereas also went to their players…85 yard TD at the end of the half on a three deep zone where our safety and CB destroy each other to give away the score (bad execution and also bad luck, if you believe in that sort of thing). Since I work closely with this UF fan, I stopped myself from continuing or gloating in the misery that is UF football this year. I wish them many years of misery to come in the post Tebow era.
As for bowls, no way I see LSU in a BCS bowl even if Auburn gets the death penalty by this weekend. Too many in the media don’t want us there, but more importantly, we didn’t really earn the right on the field. Also, if Auburn were to lose their spot for cheating, I’m pretty sure the SEC would not get a second spot…kind of a distributive punishment for the entire conference.
by Displaced Tiger on Nov 29, 2010 9:55 AM CST reply actions
PodKATT
Excellent piece. Another example of the best site on the web for all things LSU in particular and college sports in general. I’ve already shared with co-workers and generated conversations as a result.
Thank you
Good work on this. Much appreciated.
by Yankee In The Southland on Nov 30, 2010 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
It's weird
B/c the Aggie blog is assuming they’re headed to the Cotton bowl. I’m not clear, after this post, what that would require to happen.
I'm proud of my damn strong football team. Have a great day!
Here's how it works out
Cotton gets 1st overall pick after the BCS is done (it’s the equivalent of the Big 12’s Cap One Bowl.) Right now the highest ranked b12 team is OU at 9. The B12 title game this weekend is OU-Neb. The loser of the B-12 title game will have a 10-3 record (6-3 in conference) which is better than A&M’s 9-3 (6-2) record.
There is no logic to putting A&M in the Cotton. Say OU wins and the argument is that the South was a better division and the B12 decides to give NEB the finger on the way out the door. I’ll grant that, but Okie St. and Mizzou have a better records (10-2 , 6-2 conf) than A&M and a head-to-head wins against the Aggies. If Neb wins, they get the B12’s BCS bid and OU would fall out of contention for an at-large spot, sending the Sooners to the Cotton.
In summary:
B12 title OU v NEB
If OU wins
OU – BCS (Fiesta)
Neb – Cotton
If OU wins and Dan Beebe pulls shenanigans
OU – BCS (Fiesta)
OSU or Mizzou- Cotton
If NEB wins
NEB – BCS (Fiesta)
OU – Cotton
Managing Editor/Chief Lackey-And The Valley Shook THE LSU Tigers Blog of the Week for 52,136 Weeks in a Row and Counting
I don't think the Cotton picks OU over A&M
The Cotton knows that Aggies will buy up the tickets, and an A&M-SEC battle will pretty much ensure a sellout. They are not required to take the Big 12 #2, but they do get second pick. A&M beat OU so they can use the head to head argument to justify not picking OU. Iam hoping for A&M vs LSU, but am ready for A&M vs Bama, or A&M in the Alamo Bowl.
BTW, thanks for calling the bowls by their real names. When people say the sponsor names I have no idea what they are talking about.
good point
on the cotton getting the second pick, rather than actually getting the B12 #2. A&M makes a lot of sense in that scenario.
Managing Editor/Chief Lackey-And The Valley Shook THE LSU Tigers Blog of the Week for 52,136 Weeks in a Row and Counting
Please please pretty please let us go to the Cotton
I’d much rather go considering
1. F**k the Capital One bowl. Seriously, just fuck em.
2. I’d rather get some curbstomping in on some Big 12 team.
3. I have buddies in Dallas. That equals good times and free floor to sleep on.
So to all you Capital One Bowl reps. I hate you. I don’t even know you and I hate your guts. I hope all the bad things in life happen to you and nobody else. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go home and put some water in your mama’s dish.
/Silky Johnston, Hater of the Year.
Since we just tangled with the Cap One
I guess I can agree with you, but I hate that early kickoff for the Cotton. Ouch! My head already hurts thinking about it!
Flying into Dalla$$ is pretty easy from just about anywhere, though.
Got am e-mail
from a buddy of mine whose father used to work for the Cotton Bowl. He said that it is 75 percent that A&M plays in the Cotton.
Saw another report on the web that we could hear as early as tomorrow that the Cotton is going with A&M. Evidently they do not like the idea of bringing OU or NU a month after hosting them in the conference title game. It is down to A&M or Mizzou, and the Cotton Bowl likes the prospects of ticket sales to A&M’s fans.
A&M-LSU
I admit, it makes me excited to think of this. We should play them every year. Besides, now that I know the game is on the 7th, I’m all good. I’ll be back in Dallas and ready for the game.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I should point out
that the Aggies have already played in Jerryworld this season-when they took on Arkansas. Now, there’s been a big shift in momentum since then, but if A&M & LSU go to the Cotton bowl, both teams will play in Jerryworld twice in the span of a year.
I'm proud of my damn strong football team. Have a great day!
by Mikethetiger on Nov 30, 2010 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
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SEC Baseball Standings
Final Standings
# - SEC Tournament Seeding
Team Name = Eliminated from SEC Tournament
| West | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
 |
19 | 11 | 42 | 14 |
|
16 | 14 | 39 | 17 |
| 7 Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
16 | 14 | 34 | 21 |
|
14 | 16 | 34 | 22 |
|
13 | 17 | 30 | 26 |
| |
9 | 21 | 21 | 34 |
| East | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
|
18 | 11 | 39 | 15 |
| 4 Kentucky Wildcats |
18 | 12 | 41 | 15 |
| 3 Florida Gators |
18 | 12 | 40 | 16 |
| 5 Vanderbilt Commodores |
16 | 14 | 29 | 25 |
|
14 | 15 | 31 | 24 |
|
8 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
