Why We're Gonna Suck
by Poseur on Apr 23, 2010 11:13 AM CDT
in Football
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PrintDoc Saturday turns his eye to LSU...
The verdict? Well, cover your eyes, Tiger fans:
Non-Binding Forecast. I think this is a critical year for the program in the long term: The Tigers appear more vulnerable than at any point since Saban's departure, but if they can hold the line at nine wins with a New Year's Day bowl, 2011 shapes up as a possible return to form. Again, based on talent alone, 2010 could be a return to form in its own right. Given the extreme youth throughout the lineup and the killer schedule, though, nine wins would be an achievement. If the diehards can handle 8-4 with a subtle uptick toward the end of the year, the outlook could be a little brighter at this time next year. You can do subtle, right, Tiger fans?
Honestly, that's a fair assessment from an outsider, and I think LSU fans will do well to remember that before flipping out if the team does indeed go 9-3. Setting a fair standard of success is the key to fair criticism.
Now, my only real gripe with the preview is that he completely glosses over just how miserable our running game was, and the causes of that collapse. In fact, I think Hinton really thinks LSU is on the verge of a terrible season, reading into his "Worst Case"
The presumptive improvement on offense is mostly of the "can't get any worse" variety, but without concrete steps forward by Jefferson and the offensive line, it doesn't necessarily have to get any better, either. The defense, with so many new faces, is probably even less likely to improve.
Let's deal with the defense first. I do think there are a lot of new faces up front (thankfully), but the back seven won't look that much different from last year, and almost all of LSU's defensive improvement came from the back seven. Sheppard led the team in tackles and Peterson is clearly our best player, regardless of position. Both return. There isn't much experienced linebacker depth, but the secondary is full of guys who have already contributed.
I think Hinton could be right as it is a Worst Case, but a) I don't think the defense needs to improve all that much and b) the expected improvement needs to be from the front four, who are all largely new. I'm not staying up at nights worried about the defense.
The offense, OTOH, he's got a point. There's just no way to spin it: the offense sucked last year. Hinton points to Jefferson and the offensive line's needed improvements. But how is this not improvement for Jefferson?
FR - 36/73, 53.2%, 419 yards, 4 TD/1 INT, 112.9 Rating
SO - 182/296, 61.5%, 2166 yards, 17 TD/7 INT, 137.2 Rating
While Jefferson's sophomore year numbers don't scream "Heisman!", they also don't show a poor performance. In fact, Jefferson's sophomore year numbers are pretty good. You'd like to see some more yards, but nothing in Jefferson's line suggests he's the problem. He looks like a pretty efficient QB who took care of the ball. He's the dreaded game manager. Even without improvement, those are acceptable numbers from a quarterback on a team with title aspirations. LSU ranked 97th in passing yards, which is a problem. Alabama ranked 92nd, so its not that big of a problem (Oregon ranked 98th and went to the Rose Bowl, Nebraska 101st and made the Big 12 title game, and Virginia Tech ranked 95th en route to yet another 10 win season).
No, we're not counting on Jefferson to suddenly become Tommy Hodson, we're counting on our offensive line not to suck. LSU's 90th ranked running game is the real culprit here, and there is no similar list of successful teams with a lousy running game.
So, is hoping for improvement nothing but wishful thinking?
Really, all of the offseason boils down to this simple question: will the running game improve? I am hoping against hope the offensive line improves simply by virtue of more playing time. We have some talented youngsters, but really, we're just hoping the linemen show some improvement.
On the running back front, I do think it is fair to point out LSU suffered through a bunch of injuries last year. Richard Murphy was hurt for essentially the whole season. Charles Scott suffered a collarbone injury against Bama. Keiland Williams never developed, and then he got hurt anyway. By the bowl game, we were on our fourth string running back. I don't think hoping for some new blood and some health is quite just hoping things improve because they can't get worse. It will be an entirely different backfield.
It's a good article, and a fair take on next year's team. But I will admit I'm a little more optimistic than Doc Saturday. Maybe it's the purple and gold glasses.
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a bit pessimistic?
I agree that 9-3 will be a fine record next year, given the schedule. The SEC West should be the toughest division by far this year in any conference. I really don’t have an outlook however. It is so hard to figure.
I agree with detailed analysis referenced earlier this week that the offensive line performance was the single biggest problem last year. It was also offense’s main problem previous year, although defense lacked there also. I fully agree with Poseur’s analysis that Jordan Jefferson has not the main problem, though we would all like to see certain improvements. The injuries at tailback also took their toll. Had Charles Scott not gone down, LSU might have beaten Bama (my undergrad alma mater :-).
My conundrum is that I do not have a clue if the offensive line will actually improve. Was it attrition of OL players, as noted earlier this week? Is it coaching and scheme? Often the OL did not seem to be functioning in a coordinated way the past two years. If it was simply lack of a nasty attitude, then maybe Miles instilled it in spring practice this year.
I do fully expect the defense to be fine.
disagree with myself
In retrospect, I disagree with the me of yesterday which stated that 9-3 would be a fine record next year. Counting the Chick-fil-A kickoff game, let me revise to 11-2 would be a fine record next year, given the schedule and SEC West competitiveness. 10-3 would be minimum required for Miles to remain head coach, IMO, if and only if it is accompanied by significant improvement in offensive performance.
On the bright side, I am hoping for 12-1 with only loss being close one to Alabama in BR :-)
I had a dream that LSU went 13-0 and won the SEC
but lost the NC game to (sigh) USC.
It’s just a dream, of course, but I also dreamed that the Saints won the super bowl. I hate dreaming about losing, though.
Jrlz rhymes with Charles.
by Jrlz on Apr 23, 2010 1:53 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Our defense will be the best in the SEC.
Offense will be unspectacular but effective.
Jrlz rhymes with Charles.
by Jrlz on Apr 23, 2010 1:55 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Kinda where I am...
… our defense will be among the best. Our offense will be pleasantly mediocre. Just my gut feeling.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com
I still don't understand this concept at all
Honestly, that’s a fair assessment from an outsider, and I think LSU fans will do well to remember that before flipping out if the team does indeed go 9-3. Setting a fair standard of success is the key to fair criticism.
The logic in that philosophy seems to be this: Evaluate your team year by year with an unbiased approach relative to how you expect other teams to stack up against your team without taking into account the pedigree of your team. The philosphy basically reduces to: the talent on this team today suggests an 8-4 season taking into account our schedule therefore if we actually have an 8-4 season nobody is allowed to gripe.
So I would equate that kind of philosophy to this. Let’s say you are in your annual performance review with your boss and your boss says, Well Bob, we usually expect employees to contribute 100 units to the team, but I see for the last few years you’ve only contributed 80 units or 80% efficiency. Because I’ve now come to expect only 80 units out of you, your usual 80 units will now be counted as 100% efficiency for you. Um, sign me up for THAT job!
I just don’t believe in the reletivistic philosophies with no absolutes. Eventually you’ll be expecting your way into an 0-12 season.
On another note, I fully expect our defense to not improve this year. First, I think our D-line will be every bit as undersized as our O-line was last year. I expect teams to run all over us, much like our own team ran all over us in the spring game. Next, we lost a lot of players that had played a lot of snaps for us. I’m not convinced that we will be able to replace Chad Jones despite us having a few talented options. Same with our departed LBers. On the flip side, year two under our rebuilt defensive staff should offset some of those negatives. I’m not saying that our defense will be worse this year than it was last year, but I certainly don’t expect it to improve.
I do however think our offense will be much improved. Our offensive line finally has some beef back to it, and for that reason alone I beilieve our running game will improve a ton. If the running game improves the passing game will as well. Overall, this team could be better than last years team, but it could also be worse.
Defense
Remember that K. Shep and Nevis didn’t play a snap in the spring game. I’m attributing that to some of the inflated rushing stats. Hope it isn’t wishful thinking. Secondary should be among the best in the SEC, if not the county. Morris Claiborne is apparently the real deal.
"Tiger Stadium is by far the worst place to play for a visiting team. It's like being inside a drum." - Paul "Bear" Bryant
by Chinese Bandit on Apr 23, 2010 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions
*Country
not county, sorry
"Tiger Stadium is by far the worst place to play for a visiting team. It's like being inside a drum." - Paul "Bear" Bryant
by Chinese Bandit on Apr 23, 2010 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
All 3 of those points are legit
However,
Mo Clo played in the spring game. I actually didn’t pay attention to his play at all, but yeah everyone says he’s great.
Everyone points to Nevis being out as a reason why we gave up so many yards on the ground, but I just don’t see that as a big impact. He’s a good player, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not a first round draft pick run stuffer. It’s not like we were missing Glenn Dorsey out there. Besides, Nevis played last year and according to the stats above it was our worst year of run defense in like 10 years.
Shep on the other hand I agree with. He will probably make all conference and so there was probably a hole that would normally not be there. Thats still only like one impact player missing though. How much did Bama’s D suffer last year when Hightower went down for the year? It didn’t. So yeah, I’ll count on Shep missing as a reason for hope, but if my reason for hope is, based on one player, that doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy.
It's a young line, for sure
But the talent is definitely there. It might take a year to develop, hopefully not, but that’ll probably be the case. Had Nevis played, he would’ve been the most veteran player on the field for the DL, and possibly would’ve made some difference. Sam Montgomery, with time, could be our next great D-Lineman, he shows alot of promise, IMO. You could also make the argument that the line wasn’t exactly putting on it’s best show for a spring game. While the line certainly won’t be the strong point of the defense, I don’t think it will be so bad that teams will just run over us at will. Linebacker support will have to pick up some of the slack as well. Expecting alot of blitzing from the Chief, using Mingo in some sort of stand-up DE/ rover role. Kid is a freak of nature, I had the pleasure of blocking him in high school when he was a junior, in his FIRST year of competitive football. Astounding natural athlete, I’m excited to see how he will develop with proper coaching.
"Tiger Stadium is by far the worst place to play for a visiting team. It's like being inside a drum." - Paul "Bear" Bryant
by Chinese Bandit on Apr 23, 2010 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't disagree with anything you said.
The problem is that nothing that you said really gives me anything to get too excited about.
Don't forget J. R. Ferguson and Jordan Allen.
Neither of them will need the redshirt year to bulk up, and they could have an impact at DE across from Montgomery.
Jrlz rhymes with Charles.
This is true
Not sure that they don’t need to bulk up, which I’m sure they will anyway, but I can definitely see them coming in and helping right away.
"Tiger Stadium is by far the worst place to play for a visiting team. It's like being inside a drum." - Paul "Bear" Bryant
by Chinese Bandit on Apr 24, 2010 1:00 AM CDT up reply actions
LJonno
I actually like your analogy and agree that we can’t just set the bar based on how bad (or good) we did the year before.
To use your performance review, however, let’s say the company is a Fortune 500 Company (meaning they play with the big boys) and sales over the last 10 years have been phenomenal, moving the company into the Fortune 100 (Elite) and most of the increase came because of a new product line designed by your predecessor.
The predecessor left the company to design a new product in a far away land.
You were hired because you had a similar background to the predecessor when he was hired and it was hoped that you could keep the division of the company successful. (some co-workers feared falling back to a mid-size business.)
For the first three years you kicked butt, you even exceeded the predecessor’s numbers and were hailed a company hero and given a raise.
Meanwhile, the predecessor failed in the far away land and took a job at your biggest competitor. Everyone became nervous and some of your customers (fans) secretly admired the competitor but didn’t follow him because they are under contract with the company.
Shortly after receiving the aforementioned raise you discovered that a key component in your best selling product was defective and could destroy your whole product line if it ever failed.
There was some pressure just to keep selling to keep pace with the competitor and take the risk with the bad component. Instead you made the hard but wise decision, to your own detriment, of replacing the defective component.
Of course a replacement was difficult to find and the first replacement part was a trick by the manufacturer and it actually worked against you and caused other products to suffer so the whole division went down.
Meanwhile, the competitor had a great year and stole some of your market share.
You kept working and made some good adjustments to the product line and the fifth year was better than the fourth (both still profitable years, btw) but not nearly as good as before or as good as the competitor who had their best year ever.
Now how should you be judged for your sixth year review?
Only against results of the competitor?
Only against the predecessor? When he worked for your company, or the new company?
Based on your own record?
Based on your company’s history?
Based on a trend since the decline occurred?
Personally, I think we are close to having the product line back to where it was before, if not better but we just have to be patient while the sales staff regains the market!
Out of analogy land; I hear the point that the defense may not be better but will not be worse and that would be OK.
However, I think we’ll be a lot faster than we have been and the ability of the corners and safeties to lock up receivers will allow the linebackers to be a lot more aggressive than we have seen them (and that is a characteristic of Chavis, despite what some believe) in the last couple of years.
To me that means our defense could be scary good.
As far as the offense; compared to last year I think they will be the most improved unit in the country. The running game should improve dramatically. Maybe not back to 2007 levels but a 2500 yard performance out of our running game would give us an incredible balance and as someone else pointed out, we have an embarrassment of riches from the slot on out.
If JJ can make himself just a second more comfortable in the pocket (and the line can give him that second) then our offense might be the story of 2010.
I can’t wait, I think this year will be special.
GEAUX TIGERS!!!
Now how should you be judged for your sixth year review?
Um, easy…All of the above.
Guys, the team get’s a pass in 2008 for the RP situation, but that should be at most a one year problem. I don’t even need to hear an RP analogy ever again, that book is closed.
The problem is that in Miles’ 6th year he’s yet to recruit a QB that looks good enough to compete in a national championship race. I’ll go ahead and rule J Lee out at this point. Jefferson, if I had to bet money on it, I’d have to bet against. Chris Garrett, who knows, he’s young but he wasn’t that highly recruited although I like him. And Zach Lee will probably never set foot on campus. So not only does it not look good now, but the future doesn’t look all that bright either. I can’t believe we bet the house on Z. Lee last year, that was a pretty big blunder in my opinion. I don’t know who is on our radar this year as far as QB’s go, but frankly I doubt that is going to be Miles’ problem. It’s going to be our next coach’s problem.
Working on something about the offense
But I agree with the general sentiment. I get the feeling next year’s team is going to be kind of grind-it-out outfit people have always accused Miles of secretly wanting.
No issue with that
I for one would have no issues with that. Love being able to just run the ball down people’s throats. We shall see if the OL is capable of that. Last year my expectation in most games for the C/OG was not to get knocked back into the backfield on most plays.
The..
offense could be the real deal, if the running game improves to the level that we have truly come to expect. BALANCE, jumps out to me. If the running game is legit, there might not be a weak spot. There is an embarrassment of riches on the perimeter, and it would be hard for any team to key on one area. Jefferson isn’t Manning (not by a long shot), but I trust him to get the ball into our play-maker’s hands if the running game is adequate (4th-6th in the SEC).
Also, I don’t believe the team loses more than two games this season. I think we will see significant improvement in the team’s performance.
What's up Ryan? ARGHHHHHH!!! oops. ~ Patrick Chewing
absolutely
I would call it a dream come true if we could rush 40 times a game for 200+ yards. Unfortunately, there is no reason at this point to expect that we’ll get anywhere near that. Unless both lines do a 180, I predict that 2010 will be similary frustrating like 2009.
*ahem*
While Jefferson’s sophomore year numbers don’t scream “Heisman!”, they also don’t show a poor performance. In fact, Jefferson’s sophomore year numbers are pretty good. You’d like to see some more yards, but nothing in Jefferson’s line suggests he’s the problem. He looks like a pretty efficient QB who took care of the ball. He’s the dreaded game manager. Even without improvement, those are acceptable numbers from a quarterback on a team with title aspirations.
Yes, but he lack LEADERSHIP. You can throw all these fancy stats around all you want, but the fact remains that he is not a true leader. This is obvious to anyone that simply pays attention.
^^ I’m surprised someone hasn’t said it yet though. Yeah, JJ is a good qb. He’s solid, and is obviously not the issue. I expect him to continue to improve.
Oh, and regarding the offense next season:
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
I hate to be a broken record, but Jefferson was just 19.
Think back to when you were 19. Did you have the maturity needed to handle being a starting QB at one of the SEC’s premier football programs? I didn’t.
Kids change. I’ve changed a lot since I was 19. Hell, I’ve changed a ton. Don’t write off Jefferson just yet.
Jrlz rhymes with Charles.
DAMMIT
I put in a </ sarcasm> tag that didn’t show up. I don’t believe all that tired “leadership” bullshit. The fact is that JJ IS a good qb, and 99% of the time when someone uses the term “leadership” he doesn’t know what the fuck he’s talking about.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
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| West | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
1 LSU Tigers  |
19 | 11 | 42 | 14 |
| 6 Arkansas Razorbacks |
16 | 14 | 39 | 17 |
| 7 Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
16 | 14 | 34 | 21 |
| 9 Mississippi Rebels |
14 | 16 | 34 | 22 |
| 10 Auburn Tigers |
13 | 17 | 30 | 26 |
| |
9 | 21 | 21 | 34 |
| East | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
| 2 South Carolina Gamecocks |
18 | 11 | 39 | 15 |
| 4 Kentucky Wildcats |
18 | 12 | 41 | 15 |
| 3 Florida Gators |
18 | 12 | 40 | 16 |
| 5 Vanderbilt Commodores |
16 | 14 | 29 | 25 |
| 8 Georgia Bulldogs |
14 | 15 | 31 | 24 |
|
8 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
