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Addressing the Myths Regarding Attrition

Some months ago I wrote a piece regarding the similarity in attrition numbers between the UF and LSU. If you are either a) too lazy to read that entire post or b) find it to be too long for your patience, here is a basic summary:

1) Some level of attrition is a good, not bad thing for your program.

2) The extent that it affects your program is more related to certain positions rather than sheer numbers.

3) Ostensibly, Florida outperformed LSU the last two seasons due to their attrition occurring at non-key positions. (Obviously there's a host of other factors in play here, but this has a lot to do with it).

Now, some of these points, particularly number one, will be difficult for many to swallow. As I've engaged the topic with more and more people on message boards and in person, and read others takes on the matter, the consensus opinion seems to be that attrition is a bad thing for your program. In fact, when rival programs have players dismissed or see players leave for whatever reason, they are typically mocked by their rivals (I wouldn't expect any less). However, there are several good reasons why a healthy amount (key word being healthy) of attrition is not only good, but essential for maintaining a highly competitive program, particularly in the most competitive conference in the nation.

Star-divide

So, let's jump right into the issue at hand. I think the best way to tackle all the elements of this argument is to look point-by-point at each of the fallacies. Here are the "myths" regarding attrition.

 

1) High levels of attrition indicate your coach is lax on discipline.

Simply put, this is plainly false. The fact of the matter is, every competitive program in the country will take certain risks on kids with "character" issues. Sometimes these will bite your program in the ass (i.e. Ryan Perrilloux) and sometimes they will pay off (Percy Harvin). Trying to discern which of these risks will payoff and which will not is a bit like pulling names from a hat. I challenge you to find a single successful program in the last 25 years that didn't have some form of disciplinary problems.

It's a sad, but true fact that many of the best recruits in football come from urban areas and lack proper education and discipline. Sometimes, it's merely a maturity issue. Sometimes, a player truly is irredeemable. But the truth is, every big-time program will take risks on players with extraordinary levels of talent. The trick is a mixture of getting lucky and, in my opinion, not taking a troublemaker at a leadership-important position (i.e. QB).

Sure, if your coach lets the inmates run the kingdom, your program is bound to fail. But avoiding every player with "character question marks" will doom your program just as quickly.

2) High levels of attrition mean your team won't have unity.

If you read my above piece, you can easily discern that high attrition levels don't negatively affect success. 20 players have left Florida since Meyer's arrival, many of the four and five star variety. Yet, Florida is still arguably the most successful program in the SEC during that tenure. Similarly, LSU lost 18 players and claimed their own National Championship. Meanwhile, a program such as Georgia lost only 10 players and still has yet to claim a National Title (though some would argue that's simply a product of bad luck in the BCS).

The larger point here is that losing players, even at a relatively high rate, does not prohibit success. The key is what position you lose the players. Certain positions are truly more important than others. Here's a really nice breakdown of that.

3) High levels of attrition make your  program "look bad."

This is pretty easy to debunk. Just look at the way Alabama, Florida and LSU have recruited over the past few years and it doesn't seem to be affecting recruits or parents of recruits opinions on the coaches or programs.

4) High levels of attrition show your coach can't "develop talent."

Recruiting, much like any other form of evaluation is a guessing game. Sometimes players with stellar measurements and weight room numbers bust while players who don't measure up end up becoming superstars. Sometimes it's a question of work ethic. Sometimes it's injuries. Sometimes it's environment. Really, there's an endless amount of variables. Coaches are often given too much credit for "finding talents." The best players tend to rise to the top regardless of coaching, system, surrounding talent, etc.

All of that is a long way of saying, the recruiting game is a lot of luck. Sometimes a single recruit can completely change the outlook of your program/season. The best coaches tend to exhibit the ability to consistently reel in top talent. But alas, every coach at every level (even the best in the business) miss on prospects. It's just the facts of life. So what do you do when you miss on players? You replace them (i.e. attrition). More on this later.

Okay, so let's take a moment for a breather. Some of your long-held beliefs are being challenged are maybe being challenged, so here's something to ease your minds. The Golden Girls:


Goldengirls_medium

Okay, that was a harsh trick, you were probably expecting this:


Goldengirls1_medium

Okay, back to business. Let's address the reality of attrition.

As I can tell from one response to my previous post, discussing the issue of attrition is difficult for some. To them, the futures of "amateur athletes" or "kids" or "students" shouldn't be up to debate. After all, these "kids" are not professionals, they are just trying to get their education and playing football is a good vehicle for them to do so. I understand the sentiment, but the reality is, we walk a fine line in that regard.

First of all, these athletes aren't doing this for free. In exchange for their services they are getting an expensive education paid for as well as handfuls of other goodies (I don't mean that in the under the table illegal way). I know it won't be a popular opinion, but I'm even okay with the concept of offering them additional pay. But that's another issue entirely.

Some take this even a step further and insinuate that these "amateurs" should never be criticized or discussed in a negative manner because "they are just kids" and we could "damage them." I find that to be ludicrous. If you are an athlete hoping to advance to the professional level (as I would say 99% of all D1 athletes are), and you are incapable of enduring criticism, then you will never make it. That is just the reality of the situation. Now, I don't mean the excessive and unnecessary taunting and mockery which often occurs. But reasonable discussion of a player's strengths and weaknesses should not only happen but be encouraged. As with anything else in life, success in athletics requires a certain amount of tenacity and the ability to overcome adversity.

Now, carry this logic over to the actual team. I think everyone would agree that high levels of competition only improve your team. What attrition does, on a very basic level, is encourage proper competition. Since the recruiting process is often a crap shoot with coaches missing out on as many or more players as they hit on, it's necessary that these players be cycled out of the program. 

Now, I know that a lot of traditionalists will continue to perceive this practice as "unethical." After all, we offered this player a scholarship, we should hold up our end of the bargain. Well, the reality is if the player can't hack it in your program, it may be in their best interest to find a new home and a good coach will often help facilitate that transition. This is how you maintain success in your program despite attrition. This is how you maintain integrity.

The reality is, encouraging some level of attrition helps to promote competition within your program, thus more success. For many this is now, and will continue to be, a difficult concept to grasp. Some will continue to perceive the process as unethical. But you must understand that for LSU football to remain a successful national program, this attrition is not only necessary, but beneficial. The trick is to have attrition at the right positions.

*I promise the next piece will be a look at the 2011 signing class and not a diatribe of some sort.

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Nice Job

You have now gotten through 2 posts on recruiting without mentioning How much better we would be if Nick Saban was still our coach and for that I applaud you. Also Nice job I really enjoy your posts as I like to follow recruiting

by Draco on Jun 20, 2010 12:06 AM CDT reply actions  

lil bitter there draco?

"Sympathy has expired Longhorns" WallaceWade04

by The Voice of Reason on Jun 21, 2010 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

Not only...

Have I not mentioned how much better we’d be without Saban, I haven’t even typed his name!

by Paul Crewe on Jun 20, 2010 7:32 AM CDT reply actions  

The last 2 years = good attrtition

Kids leaving for legit medical reasons, or things just not working out.

Bad attrition comes when you have too much of it at one position — such as the offensive line classes from 2004-2007 really. Way too many guys didn’t pan out and it resulted in the really thin groups we saw at that position in 08-09.

by Billy Gomila on Jun 20, 2010 8:07 AM CDT reply actions  

Yeah, exactly

That’s one thing I gleaned in writing the original piece. Quite a few guys recruited that weren’t on the team last year that really would have helped the offensive line in particular.

by Paul Crewe on Jun 20, 2010 9:08 AM CDT reply actions  

I should have made more clear...

Attrition is good for your team because of the unpredictability of the evaluation process. So when you bring guys in that can’t get the job done, the best option is to let them go and try, try again.

by Paul Crewe on Jun 20, 2010 4:04 PM CDT reply actions  

So is the point . . .

. . . that attrition is nothing more than luck, since it isn’t a reflection of any of the other deliberate processes (coaching failures, lack of unity, poor recruiting) you mention above? And that we should just hope that we don’t lose the folks we need?

It seems like another good reason for attrition is one you brought up in your last post: it frees up more scholarships and gives a team more chances to hit it big in the recruiting lottery, which, I assume you’d say is a good thing – if player evaluation is inherently uncertain, we should seek the benefits of the law of averages.

I guess I’ve never really thought about attrition being something that a coaching staff or a team can control (I thought that was the whole point). I guess it makes sense that a coaching staff would do things to nudge certain players out the door (limiting playing time, etc.) – if so, I think it only heightens the importance of player evaluation. If coaching staffs are “encouraging” certain players to leave, they should be damn sure they’re doing it to the right folks.

And I totally agree with your points about criticizing amateur college athletes and about none of this being unethical. That’s a last-ditch argument made by people who’ve been shown that their position is unsupported by facts – when you’ve got nothing to cite, cite the impropriety of the discussion. Every potential college athlete should know that a scholarship is a chance to compete, nothing more. It may be sad that it doesn’t always work out, but that shouldn’t impact our discussion of the process as fans. (Begging SouthernMan’s forgiveness, I doubt they’d ever read what we say, anyway.)

by Hutchicus on Jun 21, 2010 11:13 AM CDT reply actions  

I think
So is the point that attrition is nothing more than luck, since it isn’t a reflection of any of the other deliberate processes (coaching failures, lack of unity, poor recruiting) you mention above? And that we should just hope that we don’t lose the folks we need?

It’s kind of all of the above. The point is that there’s always going to be some attrition. It’s really a question of how its managed and distributed. Like I said about the massive amount of offensive line attrition — some of it just couldn’t be helped. Kids like Jerry Sevin and Mark Snyder suffered major injuries, and kids like Jarvis Jones and Zhamal Thomas turned out to be major discipline problems. But there ended up being so much of it that it became a problem the last year with some really thin and inexperienced groups.

by Billy Gomila on Jun 21, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's how I read it

It seems the real point is that it isn’t so much a “myth” that high attrition is caused by coaching failures, lack of unity, or poor recruiting, but rather people equate it with these things with unwarranted frequency. Attrition certainly can be the result of these things, but there’s just going to be a given amount of attrition in the universe, even assuming the perfect coaching staff.

That is, the correlation between coaching failures, lack of unity, or poor recruiting and attrition in some cases does not mean that these deliberate processes are always present when high attrition is present, any more than having a runny nose means you always have allergies or a cold or an affinity for coke.

It seems the point is (and maybe it’s an obvious one) is that it’s important to get every drop of potential out of the players that stay around while they’re around, because they may be gone before you know it.

by Hutchicus on Jun 21, 2010 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

You Guys are all kind of hitting on it

In my opinion, attrition can be regulated but only to an extent. Obviously, the ideal is that every recruiting class is chocked full of 25 studs who want to play for 4 years at an all-conference level. Realistically, that will never happen. Due to an extremely large number of variables, attrition will happen inevitably at every program.

Now, how the coach handles that is the key. You have to reload and quickly. I don’t doubt that some players are nudged out of the program. Maybe not in such a direct manner, but I’m sure they are lead to read the writing on the wall. In these cases (let’s say Ricky Dixon as an example) it becomes apparent that while they were tremendous HS athletes, they just aren’t going to cut it at the D1 level and they’ll never play. Now, some of those dudes may just choose to live it out anyways, but others will opt to transfer to a lesser level of competition where they can play right away (as Dixon did). I have to imagine that it didn’t just suddenly dawn on Dixon one day that he wanted to leave his home state and home school… but I’m a cynic.

So, after a year or two or three, you see these guys on scholarship that you realize will never make an impact on the team, so you figure out a way to filter them out and start all over again.

Some coaches are really really good at evaluating and hit on a lot of targets. Other coaches (like Saban) are really good at just filtering in high numbers of players until he hits on the right ones.

I think luck definitely plays a factor into attrition. Recruiting well is a very complex process. You are doing your best to evaluate both a kid’s athletic ability and his mental makeup. Is he a good student? Is he a good kid? Does he really LOVE football? JaMarcus Russell was a better player than Matt Flynn. But did he really love football? Well it didn’t hurt LSU much, but we can see now that Flynn obviously has more heart/desire.

At this point I’m rambling, but I hope you can understand what I’m saying. Attrition will happen. How you handle that attrition is what matters. LSU didn’t handle the o-line attrition well and has suffered.

by Paul Crewe on Jun 21, 2010 2:28 PM CDT reply actions  

The biggest thing

Is that talent evaluation is a crapshoot. I don’t care who you are.

Great example — Carnell Stewart. People remember him as a turnstyle right tackle in 2007, but when he came out of John Curtis in 2003 he could have gone to any school in the country. He was as can’t-miss as can’t-miss gets. Sometimes a kid just isn’t as good as people think he is.

by Billy Gomila on Jun 21, 2010 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Pretty much

That’s why I used Ricky Dixon as an example as well. He was a 4-star, top 250 type talent as a Senior. So was Chris Mitchell. Neither ever really lived up to that billing.

Meanwhile, Brandon LaFell became one of the most productive WRs in LSU history and he was a fairly lightly-recruited 3 star.

by Paul Crewe on Jun 21, 2010 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also, the biggest "Myth"

The reason I used the notion of “addressing the myths” is because, from my experience, people associate high levels of attrition with your program failing. And that is simply not the case.

UF, LSU and Bama have had a ton of turnover and yet they are also boasting NCs in the last 5 years.

by Paul Crewe on Jun 21, 2010 2:29 PM CDT reply actions  

It's a good point

If we take attrition as a given that affects all teams, what will separate teams is what they do with the players they have left, plus some luck to avoid the more catastrophic levels of it.

Since it seems we’re in agreement on the general principles, I’m looking forward to your discussion of the specifics, Paul.

by Hutchicus on Jun 21, 2010 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's one of those things

That every coach has to deal with that define a tenure. And it’s not just limited to players — you have coaching attrition as well as they come and go.

by Billy Gomila on Jun 21, 2010 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

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