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What to expect in 2010 -- here's my take

What to expect in 2010? A bigger, better, ready to dominate Jordan Jefferson


It’s officially the worst time of the year. The time when we, as sports fans, think clicking “refresh” on our favorite sports team’s message board is a good way to pass time just because we want to have the latest and greatest about our team every second of every hours. Alas, the season is less than a month away, which means everyone is officially a fortune teller extraordinaire. But today, it’s my turn -- here’s what I expect in 2010: a bigger, better and ready to dominate the SEC version of Jordan Jefferson.

Listen, I know what you’re saying -- you’re saying that you’re immediately going to click away from this website in the next 5 seconds if I don’t say that I’m kidding. But please, please hear me out. Jefferson is the rear end most often grilled for LSU’s lack of success last year because of his untimely sacks and sometimes brutal decision making. But looking into the stat sheet shows the objective eye a little bit of a different story.

Below are the statistics for every LSU “first-year starter” in the past 10 years:

2009: Jefferson, 182-for-296, 17 TD, 7 INT, 61.5% completion rate
2008: Lee, 143-for-269, 14 TD, 16 INT, 53.2% completion rate
2007: Flynn, 202-for-359, 21 TD, 11 INT, 56.3% completion rate
2006: returning starter (Russell)
2005: Russell, 188-for-311, 15 TD, 9 INT, 60.5% completion rate
2004: Randall, 102-for-162, 9 TD, 6 INT, 63% completion rate
2003: returning starter (Mauck)
2002: Mauck: 63-for-130, 9 TD, 2 INT, 48.5% completion rate **was injured during season
2001: Davey, 217-for-367, 18 TD, 10 INT, 59.1% completion rate

OK, now with these long and boring numbers, let’s look and see what these same people (Mauck and Russell) did when they were blessed with the opportunity to have a second year starting under center.

2003: Mauck: 229-for-358, 28 TD, 14 INT, 64% completion rate

Mauck is hard to fully study because his first year was on a bit of a curve, because he was injured. But 28 TDs? 64 percent completions? Pretty safe to say he wouldn’t have sniffed either of those in 2002.

What about Russell?

2006: Russell: 232-for-342, 28 TD, 8 INT, 67.8% completion rate

Look at good, ole JaMarcus. +13 with TDs, -1 with INTs, +7.3% with the completion percentage.

The morale of the boring statistical breakdown is this -- experience trumps all. Ever heard the logic, practice makes perfect? It’s true. It works. Listen to the old people with the white beards. Every quarterback has a learning curve and they gradually progress from there. For Jefferson, 17 TDs and INTs isn’t so bad when you’re dead last in rushing offense in your conference. So I don’t know (and I don’t claim to know) what the Tigers will do in the 2010 season in terms of wins and losses, but just looking at history, I’d be willing to put a few green sheets of paper on Jefferson getting about 20-23 TDs with about 7-10 INTs, with his completion percentage being somewhere around 64-66 percent. Others might call that a long time coming.

This guy calls it dominance. A storm is brewing in Baton Rouge. Prepare for Hurricane Jefferson to light up a category 4 storm surge on opposing defenses this year. You don’t believe me? Just wait and see. Less than a month to go. Finally.

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