On the Cusp of... Something
I was pretty critical of Jordan Jefferson after the Vandy game, and for good reason. He stunk it up in that game. In this game, he did everything that was asked of him. Granted, not much was asked of him, but he did everything well. Even his incompletions were usually not due to poorly thrown passes (one drop, one tough but catchable pass, a couple where he was hit as he threw, and a tipped pass come to mind). There were even a couple really nice throws in there (the 3rd down strike to Rueben Randle comes to mind). The staff cut down Jefferson's responsibilities in the passing game, and he responded by meeting those responsibilities admirably.
Which brings me to my thesis statement: this team can still be either very good, or only so-so. I think as currently constituted, this is a team that can be in the top half of the SEC and perhaps be one of the best without further improvement. We can ride a fast and opportunistic defense, good special teams, and a pedestrian offense to victories over Tennessee, Ole Miss, McNeese, and ULM fairly easily as long as we don't have a flat game in there. I would say at this point, without improvement, that our tilts against Arkansas, West Virginia, Florida, and Auburn are more-or-less even-money games, and if we played Bama next week we would be big underdogs.
So, without improvement, figure we get wins in our 4 games where we'll be big favorites and wins in 2 of the 4 in which the teams are roughly equal, and a loss to Bama. That makes for 9 wins and a very solid bowl game, but not enough to truly compete for the SEC Championship.
However, I think this team is very close to being special, and maybe they will get there. Jefferson's decent game is encouraging, but he has still not exactly put up the kinds of passing numbers that will make opposing defenses respect our passing game. In his 17 career starts, he has thrown for 200 yards or more exactly 4 times, and now we seem to have settled in on being a run-first, pass-infrequently team. The problem here is that our offensive personnel (outside of the QB position) does not seem to be geared towards being a run-first team. We have outstanding receivers in Toliver and Randle, and a huge run-after-catch option in Shepard, but our running backs (I am sorry to say) are only so-so.
Stevan Ridley is a fine player who gives his all, but outside of one really nice run against Vandy, he has been a 4-yard-per-carry back. While 4 yards per carry is pretty good in the NFL, it's only OK in college. To illustrate, in our much-maligned rushing attack of 2009, Charles Scott averaged 4.7 yards per carry, and Keiland Williams averaged 5.8 yards per carry. In 2008, Scott averaged 5.4 yards per carry and Keiland Williams averaged about 5.0. In 2007, Jacob Hester averaged 4.9 yards per carry, and Scott/Williams averaged almost 7.0 yards per carry.
This team is really built to be an explosive passing team with a good enough running game to keep the defense honest. Instead, because the coaches have little faith in Jefferson, we are forced to feature our running game, which is really nothing special, and use our passing game sparingly despite having stellar talent on the outside. It's a situation that is far from optimized, but if Jefferson can continue improving like he did from week 3 to week 4, just to the point where we can have a roughly 50-50 run-pass split where we can make maximum use our most talented players, we will be a much improved team.
And if we improve, we could end up steamrolling teams like Arkansas, Auburn, West Virginia, and Florida (all of whom look very beatable if we play well), and really challenging Bama for the top spot in the conference. We are on the cusp, but have to go over that cusp in order to meet our goals.
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good write up
Richard, I think you hit the nail on the head. I think most fans recognize the great potential this team has in terms of talent. and it is just so difficult to see us not execute closer to our full potential.
I have always been a fan of JJ, but I don’t see much evidence to think he will improve significantly in his ability to pass the ball as the season goes on. I admit that the coaches are in a tough position (even though, this position is of their own making i believe). I don’t believe JJ or Lee are ready to be an all SEC caliber qb.
With JJ you have the ability to move the chains by picking up 5-6 yds scrambling. But w/ JJ our O seems unable to get the ball down field or even consistently into our WR’s hands.
With Lee you have the ability to get the ball down field and into our WR’s hands more, but you have the fact that he is hesitant to escape the pocket and isn’t really a threat with his legs at all. And you obviously have the potential for a poorly timed int.
I am open to other thoughts , b/c again i admit the difficulty of our situation, but I think we would do better to rotate these two qbs more. I don’t expect Miles to do this, b/c i know it is counter to his philosophy of sticking w/ one guy. However, I think the upside of rotating these two guys could far outweigh the downside.
This applies to Richard's comments too
But w/ JJ our O seems unable to get the ball down field or even consistently into our WR’s hands.
Yeah, I’m thinking this has more to do with Crowton than with JJ. Crowton expects JJ to do things he simply is not wired to do. He’s a ball distributer, not a play maker.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
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Crowton deserves blame for sure, but JJ as well
JJ is not as good of a passer as Lee. Many of JJ’s passes are low, high, or just not on the mark.
Excellent analysis...
best I’ve read on this LSU team thus far.
Missed the part about tossing out Ridley's 65 yd run...
can’t do that and call it legit… this is not such a excellent analysis after all.
Ridley's yards per carry
Ridley is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the year but had 4 ypc against Mississippi State. By contrast, Keiland Williams and Charles Scott rushed for a combined 15 attempts and 35 yards against them last year. I disagree about him being a I agree with you about him being a mediocre running back or our team not having the personnel to be a run first team. Ridley averaged 9.8 ypc against Vanderbilt.
Most of that came in the second half. There wasn’t anything wrong with the plays called. Jordan’s best pass that game was poorly placed but completed to Spencer Ware. It should have been a TD but Jefferson was a little off on an easy throw. Whether it was a slant or swing pass out to the flat, he was off the mark. He can’t distribute the balls in those kind of plays accurately and quickly enough to make the offense work. So we can either try someone who can do that consistently or simplify things a bit. Roll him out of the pocket to give him an easier decision and allow him to be more comfortable with the pressure. More importantly, we are better off sticking to the running game and keeping the defense honest with play action, bubble screens or whatever type of route will keep teams from stacking the box. But going into that game, Ridley averaged more yards per carry than Trent Richardson.
The key to this year in general is eliminating negative plays. I don’t want to see any rushing plays stuffed at the line. That was way too frequent last year. Ridley has consistently gained positive yardage which helps keep a drive going.
Lastly, Jordan Jefferson had over 200 yards passing last year but most were on 3 plays. Something always happened to cause things to stall out or we quickly scored a touchdown. This resulted in MSU running 86 plays to our 58. We need to take advantage of our defense and eat up more clock, dominate field position, and eliminate turnovers.
by Big McLargeHuge on Sep 19, 2010 2:34 PM CDT reply actions
tigers playing at home!!
for some unknown reason with all our young players feeding off the home field crowd playing at night we could very well run the table at home which includes our nemesis Bama!! We are def a running football team whether u like it or not. Its our strong suit. We cannot maintain an 80 yard drive throwing the football we have got to run. Sad but true with all the talent we have on the outside. Our front 4 are beasts! teams will have to double team Nevis leaving the outside one on one. I like our chances of being a top 10 team this year and our defensive leadership. We are very aggressive in pass coverage and got the players to do it!!
Take away Ridley's 65-yard run...
… which I don’t agree with BTW, he did it, so it counts. But okay. Let’s grant the premise. Take away his biggest run (65 yards) and he’s rushed 35 times for 175 yards. An average of 5.0 yards per carry. That’s ahead of Charles Scott’s 4.7 YPC. Keiland averaged 5.26 YPC last season, and he only had one run over 20 yards in 70 atrtempts.
Last year, as a team, LSU only had 8 runs over 20 yards.LSU, through 3 games, has 4 rushes over 20 yards this season, two by Ridley. His 65 yard rush is twice as longas any run by Scott or Williams last seaosn (season longs of 34 and 25 respectively). I fail to see how this is a bad thing.
I do agree that Jefferson needs to do more, but Ridley is already more productive than both of our top two backs last season. While I agree that Jefferson needs to improve, Ridley does not. I’m fine with 5.0 YPC, throwing out the occassional 65 yard run.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
correction
55 – 318
54 – 253 – 4.68
This tells me he gets the job done and has the potential to bust a long run. It’s early still, too. That will only improve as Williford, Hurst, and Lonegran get more experience.
by Big McLargeHuge on Sep 19, 2010 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions
ridley is defnitely the man
I have to admit that DD planted the seed of how awesome ridley is 2 years ago though. DD loves him and has since he was a freshman.
also forgot
KW’s stats aren’t as impressive in my opinion, b/c of when he was getting the ball. I don’t have the patience or time to do the analysis, but I my hunch is that KW’s yards came more in passing situations than Scotts…ie Defenses knew Scott was getting the ball when he ran, but KW benefited more from running when the D wasn’t expecting it.
What is impressive about Ridley is that he has run the ball for 4-5 yds when D’s know he is getting it.
Trent Richardson had a 45 yard TD run against Duke. Take that away, and he ran for 2.6 ypc
By definition, if you take any player’s best plays away, it’ll look like he sucks.
Don't Panic.
by 4.0 Point Stance on Sep 20, 2010 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Does that include MSU?
ESPN has ridley with 55 attempts for 355 yards this year. So 54 – 290 would be 5.37. I do like the idea of measuring hoe much one long run skews that average just as a possible way to look at how consistent they are. My big thing is that too often, runs put JJ in a bad spot by not picking up any yardage. What i like about Ridley is that he is not one of those all it nothing backs but still has the ability to pick up some longer gains.
by Big McLargeHuge on Sep 19, 2010 4:10 PM CDT reply actions
You're right
I’m using cfbstats… they haven’t updated yet. My bad. Still not 4.0 YPC.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
Good analysis...
I do think WVU will score between 21 to 28 points—I hope not but they have a lot of experience and good skill players, so I think we will need to open it up on offense a little more to win getting closer to that 50/50 mark which as you said and I agree with is where we need to be to make a run at the West.
If i completely misread the stat sheet..
I apologize. I was trying to type and entertain a 3 year old at the same time. Quality decreases.
I still stand by my larger point, though. We can beat the MSU’s and VU’s (and Ole Miss’s and Tennessees) of the world as we currently stand, but I don’t think we are serious contenders unless and until our passing game improves. Plus, we are leaving a lot of yards/points on the table by failing to take advantage of our talent at the outside.
Jefferson had a good game this week. If he can really improve and sustain it, look out, because we’ll be a threat to anyone.
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
by Richard Pittman on Sep 20, 2010 7:56 AM CDT reply actions
Agree on Jefferson
I agree that Jefferson needs to improve. Efficeincy is nice, but so is throwing for over 100 yards. Alabama, as of right now, looks awesome. Arkansas has a terrific offense and a suspect defense, but we need a QB who can take advantage of their shortcomings. And I agree we are almost wasting the talents of Randle and Tolliver.
My only objection was to the effectiveness of Ridley. Our team YPC has improved by about 1.5 yards over last year, which is a quantum leap. I have no complaints with Ridley as the feature back. The running game, which was a problem last season, is not a significant issue right now. Quarterback play clearly is.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
Richard,
I agree with you 100%.
JJ was much better, when we dumbed things down for him. Which leads to the question, why did we ever make it more complex? Thanks Gary…
The biggest problem here is that the only hole in Bama’s armor is their DB’s. If we are going to beat Bama we are going to have to throw it. As of right now, we are not there. Improvement is great, but we need to pick up the pace.
I'm pretty pumped for the WVU game.
Also, we mentioned this in the game thread but I think it needs to be repeated here…
JJ really needs a high five this week. He took it on the chin with the criticism last week and he could have folded and pouted and told everyone to shove it. Well he did tell everyone to shove it, but not with his mouth, with his arm. The kid has class.
A 96 yd performance against State isn’t a cause for celebration, but he handled the criticism well. Hopefully he’ll stay motivated and keep improving.

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