Delusional Optimism
by Poseur on Sep 2, 2010 10:21 AM CDT
in Football
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PrintIf you listened to the podcast, you probably wondered to yourself, "Self... I wonder what is Poseur smoking? Because no one can be that high on the Tigers right now."
Well, I am. At the risk of sounding like a homer and also angering the gods of weaux-fing, I truly believe LSU is going to have a win total in the double digits, contend for the West title, and finish in the top ten. Now, seasons aren't written in stone, and of course this team could have another "mediocre" nine win campaign, but I'm feeling strangely optimistic this season. Maybe it's just residual wedding bliss, or maybe I'm on to something. My reasoning after the jump...
- 1. Talent. The crazy thing about the "Miles is winning with Saban's talent" meme is that Miles has continually hauled in great recruiting classes. Everywhere you look on the roster, there is highly touted talent. Is there another team you would straight up trade rosters with? Maybe Texas, maybe Alabama, maybe Florida. But that's about it. LSU is loaded. Of course, there was talent last year and the team won nine games. Yes, but now we have...
- 2. Leadership. I think we overlook not only how much talent left after 2007, but how many team leaders. That was a senior laden team. Not to take shots at the recently departed upperclassmen, but there was a bit of a leadership void the last two years. Now, Patrick Peterson is not just our best player, he's an upperclassmen, comfortable with the leadership role he's partly avoided. Our quarterback isn't a wide-eyed teenager anymore, Jordan Jefferson is now a returning starter, and willing and able to take the mantle of leader of the offense. Our "quarterback" on defense is Kelvin Sheppard, a senior. This team has strong leaders.
- 3. LSU won 9 games last year... Yes, I've heard the "we should have lost to State and Georgia" talk. But by that rationale, we should have beaten Ole Miss and Alabama. Yes, if you remove all good fortune from the team last season, and make every single game a parade of nothing but bad luck, they would have only won 7 games. LSU got the breaks in some games and won, didn't in others and lost. The nine wins were "honest". You are what your record says you are, and LSU was a 9 win team last season, and one of only three SEC schools with a winning conference record...
- 4. ... And this team is better. Almost every position is an upgrade over last season. Playing a veteran QB over a true sophomore. The receiving core is much deeper. The offensive line can't be as bad as it was last year. The defensive line looks like an upgrade. The secondary is among the very best in the country. The linebackers lose experience, but gain talent. This team has upgraded almost every position.
- 5. Alabama and Florida are worse. Well, they aren't going to fall out of the top 25 or anything, but last year, both of those teams looked like near unstoppable juggernauts. In fact, they sort of were. Alabama lost most of their defense and Florida lost their biggest playmakers. Neither team suddenly stinks or anything, but they have fallen back to the pack just a little bit. Both can be beaten. Last year, you needed a perfect game to beat Alabama, that likely won't be the case this year.
- 6. Motivation. Even going into last season, the general mood of fans and the media was that the team would bounce back. LSU was a borderline top ten team going into last preseason, and climbed into the top five before the Florida game. This year, this team is being told it's not very good. Sure, they still have a decent rank, but this team was picked FOURTH in the SEC West, behind two teams that LSU beat last season. The talk of "program on decline" and the dreaded "mediocrity" have been incessant. The players (and the coaches) have heard this talk. They don't live in caves. This team should come out firing because it has something to prove.
- 7. 2008 was two years ago. One of the biggest factors holding LSU's offense back in 2009 was, by the team's own admission, playing too conservatively. A lot of it was the psychological hangover of 2008. The offense was just living in fear of turning the ball over. Not only is the team two years removed now from the Pick Six Apocalypse, but bringing in new blood like Billy Gonzalez helps the team put this behind them. Gonzalez doesn't carry the same psychological scars from 2008, and will probably push Crowton to take more risks. It's okay, guys. Attack.
- 8. The secondary. Have I mentioned how good the secondary looks? This will allow Chavis to blitz more, put eight guys in the box, and generally attack the ball, knowing he has the Oreo of Explosion as a security blanket.
- 9. Jordan Jefferson. That's right, Jefferson. He put up numbers remarkably similar to Greg McElroy last season. Having a veteran quarterback is a huge asset, and it's something LSU has not had in awhile. I'm excited having a returning starter under center.
- 10. Why not? Being optimistic is just more fun then being negative. I'm just tired of the negativity. I'm tired of listening to fans whine about losses that haven't even happened yet. This is supposed to be fun, so let's have fun. I know the guys at DawgSports have adopted the theory of constant pessimism so anything good will come as a pleasant surprise, but I'd rather get to the party early. Expect good things to happen. If anything, it's more fun that way.
Laissez le bon temps roullez!
PS. Dear SEC foes: You are welcome to clip and save this article and then point and laugh at me if this season goes poorly. I'm quite sure one could make a similar list of why LSU is going 7-5 (I'm looking at you, RCR...) Such is the risk of optimistic predictions. But we need a ray of sunshine. It's Gamedaymas!
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I think the team will be better
but I’m not sure it’ll necessarily translate into a better W-L record. We have a tough tough schedule.
Also, I don’t know what I think about Miles. And this is the 2nd consecutive year that almost all the coaches on one side of the ball have been replaced. I wonder if that’ll take it’s toll somehow.
But I agree, we should be better and I don’t understand the Arky and AU hype (and the associated LSU un-hype). Like you said, we have upgraded near every position over last year.
btw re: Miles
I noticed ATVS hasn’t really chimed in on him. What are y’all thoughts on him? Good/Bad/Average? Is he on the hot seat? Is LSU in a downward spiral with him at the helm?
noticed ATVS hasn’t really chimed in on him.
You must be new.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
May I point you to the archives
ATVS ARCHVE- Les Miles Is An Incompetent Moron
read it, it’s not what you think.
Managing Editor/Chief Lackey-And The Valley Shook THE LSU Tigers Blog of the Week for 52,136 Weeks in a Row and Counting
Maybe RCR should post a list of reasons while they'll have a 10 win season
I’ll help them. Ummm. LSU had an offense about as bad as there’s will be this year and still won 9 games, so surely they can do it too! You’ll have a good defensive line.
OK. That’s all I can come up with. But we’re staying positive!
by Big McLargeHuge on Sep 2, 2010 10:40 AM CDT reply actions
Not only will the offense be better (by default)
but the defense will likely go from pretty good to very good.
That said I am worried about this offense. JJ isn’t the problem. The other “skill” position players are, well, LSU recruits (which means fast, athletic, and scary), so they will be good or great. My worries are last year’s weaknesses: the o line and the play calling/planning. If those remain poor then we will likely will nine or so games again (maybe less). If they pull their performances up to mediocre then we should have double digit wins and compete for the west, and the SEC. If one we get good performances then we can start thinking crazy (like MNC crazy). [This is all contingent on injuries of course.]
This is one really hard team to predict. Poseur knows this and hence emphasized the upside. We could just as easily bust. But I like Poseur’s line; let’s be optimistic!
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
Same here
The line needs to perform much better, and I would like a more cohesive offensive scheme. These are things we need to wait for and see. I’m with the delusional optimism crowd because that helps me enjoy football more.
But the point remains true, Ole Miss doesn’t have enough positive things going on in their program to write an article making the point Poseur just did. And that is just funny. Ole Miss sucks again. Praise jeebus. Colonel Reb is CRYYYYING
by Big McLargeHuge on Sep 2, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
btw re: Miles
I noticed ATVS hasn’t really chimed on him one way or the other … what are y’all thoughts? Good/bad/average? Is he on the hot seat? Is LSU in a Dinardo like downward spiral with him at the helm or have the last 2 years been rebuilding years?
My thoughts
Not ATVS, but I have strong feelings on this one. This is mutha fuggin football season and LSU football will always be 85 guys taking the field. Not 1 guy standing on the sidelines. The more we waste time talking about something you can’t measure, like coaching screw ups, the more of a disservice it does to the team. I’ll be damned if I’m ever going to act like those pitiful excuses for journalist that can’t talk about an actual team and waste their time saying “MILES MILES MILES”. The time to talk about coaching is in review of the season. This is the first day of the season.
by Big McLargeHuge on Sep 2, 2010 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
That's it's own article, really
My thoughts on Miles are complicated and conflicted. Simplified…
GOOD: great recruiter, willing to buck orthodoxy, takes good calculated gambles (the Auburn pass was a great call with little downside, good manager of the staff, he seems like a genuinely decent person – rare in this business, willing to make tough disicplinary decisions without grandstanding (Perrilloux)
BAD: clock management (obviously), questionable roster management, gets TOO emotional and makes irrational decisions, doesn’t like to change plans, poor public speaker (I don’t think this is a big deal – but part of a coach’s job is PR), afraid to be the bad guy sometimes
All in all, I like Miles, but I don’t think he’s without flaw. The guy is the most successful coach in LSU history, and that counts for a lot. And I love that he is very generous with credit… he doesn’t seem to have a large ego. I think the world could use a few less dictator and genius coaches.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
My thoughts exactly Poseur, overall I like Miles. I defend him to family and friends. Also I’m on the same boat as you with this team. I think 10 wins is a strong possibility, I mean every position is just ooozing with talent and 2 deep none the less.
by cbkao on Sep 2, 2010 12:21 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Same here...
when we start having records like 6-6 or worse, then put him on the seat. But, 8-5 followed by 9-4 I can live with—I want 10+ this year, but if we get 8-9, I do not see a big problem with that and Miles should not be one a hot seat—next year with what we have returning we should be in good shape. The guy wins—ugly, mediocre, whatever you want to call them, a win is a win—and recruits well. The guy fucked up at Ole Miss—I’m over it, have been for a long time now. Of course, I did go through the six straight losing seasons in the 90’s—was a student for four of them (had a blast at the games regardless for the most part except having to witness a few of the more humbling losses). Tiger fan, rain or shine, optimistic for a great year.
My thoughts
Call it hedging, but I guess I’m waiting to see what happens next. I think that, for the most part, he’s done a great job here, and I liked the hire in 2005 and thought (and still think) that most of the people who didn’t like it weren’t going to like whoever followed Saban. It’s just a question of how long he can continue to do a good job. And that’s the question with every coach. The list of coaches who had some early success and flamed out over time is a long one. I’ve always been one who believes greatness is determined by time.
But in general I don’t believe in snap judgments on coaches anywhere.
by Billy Gomila on Sep 2, 2010 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
The "curse" of having a good program
is that we are the minor leagues of sort for great coordinators. Good coordinators get to go be head coach of Nebraska, while the poor ones remain at the job they have.* I blame LSU’s troubles last year (which I found MUCH more frustrating than the 2008 season) largely (not entirely) on the shoulder of Crowton. I hope he learned a lot from last year.
*This is Gregatron’s theory of why good football programs inevitably decline.
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is that we are the minor leagues of sort for head coaches.
Fixed my post.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
Completely Agree
My pro team is the Jets and I have a firm belief that ground and pound combined with Defense will win games. Last year (and maybe even the year before) we had one of the least talented Dlines in the last decade. I think even though this line isnt experienced its loaded with talent. Overall I think the D is going to be great, Chavis showed great things with bad talent. I will say the only two concerns on offense are JJ and Crowton. Crowton is obvious, I think JJ does have all the physical tools to be a good player, but has yet to grasp the mental part. He really has to be solid. I do think that we can beat Florida, not sure about Bama but Florida definitely. This is going to be a good team
Ummm....
… Chavis showed great things with bad talent.
Come again?
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St. Louis vegetarian blog
weaux fing
If I were a kung fu master, this would be my name
I disagree with this:
Yes, I’ve heard the “we should have lost to State and Georgia” talk. But by that rationale, we should have beaten Ole Miss and Alabama.
Total yards:
Ole Miss: 426
LSU: 290
Alabama: 452
LSU: 253
We were dominated in the Bama and Ole Miss games in every statistical category besides the scoreboard. We merely barely lost those games on the score board. There is no rationale that states we should have lost to State and Georgia and beaten Bama and Ole Miss. We had an opportunity to steal the bama and ole miss games late, but by no means should we have won them based on the way we played. We were dominated…it is that simple.
Having said all that, there is still plenty of room for optimism this year…This could be an entirely different year based solely on a large improvement in the O-line.
Red Zone stats
How about ranked teams scoring touchdowns in just 1 of 13 red zone possessions. That’s a hell of a stat that we were not ever dominated in.
by Big McLargeHuge on Sep 2, 2010 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions
When you look at it
That stat is the only reason we weren’t blown out on several occassions.
by Big McLargeHuge on Sep 2, 2010 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
And special teams
Ole Miss’ yardage advantage disappears once you add in return yards.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
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As for the analysis, if we can run the ball
we are going to be sick. If not, we are fooked. I had this conversation with the RBR guys a few weeks ago. Here’s what I came up with numbers-wise for the importance of the running game.
if LSU’s run game can get back to its 2007 running game (2998 total yards, 35 tds, 214 yds per game, 316 first downs) or something close to it (even 2008 2168 total yds, 27tds, 166 yds per game, 254 first downs would help tremendously), and I have no good reason to predict that it will, I think LSU could absolutely challenge Bama for best team in the West. But, if the 2009 LSU ground game shows up (1596 total yards, 15 tds, 122 yds per game, 226 first downs), we are fooked no matter how good the defense is. LSU is -53 first rushing downs from 2007 to 2009. That’s close to three games worth of offense just on the ground that we are missing.
This is obvious but it’s nice to see the numbers. Additionally, as we all know, running the ball is time of possession football. Bama’s 2009 run game was obviously outstanding as was there defense but I think their run game helped the D a lot more than is noticed. Bama’s defense played 844 plays compared to LSU’s 910 in 2009. And Bama played an extra 70 plays in the MNC in it’s 14th game. So, carry the one, multiply by the coefficient of gris gris, and you get LSU’s defense being on the field for 136 more plays than Bama over 13 games. That’s the equivalent of LSU’s defense playing two more games. Now, I’m not saying that Bama’s D didn’t get their share of three and outs, but they were not so incredibly dominant to create this kind of discrepancy. We have got to keep the offense on the field with the run game not only to set up the pass but to keep the defense from carry more than their fair share of the water.
Or maybe I’m wrong. At any rate, the most wonderful time of the year has arrived so we will find out shortly.
Running the ball makes passing easier as well.
I am on record here as being a supporter of JJ.* But he is not a great qb. He is, however, a good one. When he is responsible for coming up with most of the offense’s output we are in trouble. Great qbs can do that. JJ is not in that class. Good qbs can still put up decent numbers in that situation (as JJ has) but not be spectacular enough to make it work. This is NOT a knock in JJ — very few qbs are that good. If we give JJ a running game he can be more productive that he already is.
I think JJ is similar to a Flynn/Maulk type of qb. He isn’t winning a Heisman, but he can be a smart, good, solid contributor who distributes the ball to people that are much faster and stronger than he is.
Essentially, this is a long-winded way of me agreeing with you haveagreatday. If the o line gives JJ a 1) running game and 2) the ability to pass without having to run for his life then this offense will be very good.
*Every post I ever made about him lacking “leadership” (whatever the fuck that is) was one jillion percent sarcastic, and making fun of people that make useless analyses like “they need to put Flynn/Lee in there since Russell/Jefferson obviously lack the leadership needed for this offense to move the ball.”
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
So, to summarize your theory...
a good ball control offense will benefit a defense whereas a bad ball control offense will be detrimental. Makes sense to me. I’ve been thinking that if our offense improves even a little, and our defense does not digress, our team’s overall performance should improve significantly.
Has anyone looked at the correlation between offensive rankings and defensive rankings of teams in the NCAA to see if a bad offense consistently puts a team’s defense at significant disadvantage? It seems like this should show up in the numbers, i.e., teams with higher ranks ball control offenses should consistently have higher ranked defenses when compared to poorer ball control offenses.
by Displaced Tiger on Sep 2, 2010 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmmm...
…. I wonder how it would show up in the numbers. The problem comes that teams that win tend the run the ball a lot NOT because they are playing a ball control offense, but because they are running out the clock. Let me think on this.
But, to look at LSU last year, look at the number of plays. Without checking, I think we lost that stat, by a large margin, in almost every game. Three and outs were the death knell for our offense.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
Oh, Poseur. You forgot to mention...
RIDLEY!!!!!!
Yes, I am bringing this meme back for the 2010 season.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
#10 is reason enough for me
I follow football because it’s awesome fun times, not because it’s a chore. Optimism is far, far more fun than pessimism. Unless you are a masochist, I don’t see why you would be pessimistic. Early September is the most joyous time for football fans – we’re all undefeated!
Don't Panic.
by 4.0 Point Stance on Sep 2, 2010 12:50 PM CDT reply actions
Other memes I'm trying to start
STAMP SMASH!
Jordan “President” Jefferson
Oreo of Explosion and EL CL Fudge (Craig Loston)
Our receivers want to be the Trio? OK, we can give them an unpronouncable symbol and talk about them in Alkaline Trio lyrics. I’m sure Shep was the inspiration for “My Little Needle”
And, of course, Lord Barkevious Mingo, Ruler of the Underworld.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
"and talk about them in Alkaline Trio lyrics"
F’ing Hipsters….
Managing Editor/Chief Lackey-And The Valley Shook THE LSU Tigers Blog of the Week for 52,136 Weeks in a Row and Counting
Hipsters don't like Alkaline Trio
Way too pop punk. Hipsters are listening to Titus Andronicus.
Who are awesome.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
President Jefferson
Has the advantage of being an actual president. If I had any photoshopping skills whatsover, I’d put Jordan’s head on TJ’s body.
El Presidente has the advantage of sounding way cool.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
Sweet!
“Oreo of Explosion”. I just love that phrase.
If you want to call me a delusional optimistic, fine by me. I like us down low and under the radar… stalking our prey in the tall grass.
Yeah, Baby!
In late
But I completely agree.
LSU is going to shock the world!
BCS or bust baby! Geaux Tigers.
Anybody having a good tailgate in Atlanta?
GEAUX TIGERS!!!
no luck here
I’m stuck out here. I know EDSBS is doing something in ATL but no idea who else will be there
With You All The Way
I have a feeling about this years team, and it’s a damn good feeling. I think we’re going to shake up the CFB world this season.
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