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Everyone Has a Plan...


No one can say he's winning with someone else's players or someone else's scheme.  No one can attribute the success of this program right now to anyone other than Les Miles.  This is Miles' program entirely at this point - he owns its successes and its failures.  But mainly, he has made this team's image.

What is a Les Miles football team (other than really good)?  

This team is about attacking.  It is both its greatest strength and its greatest weakness.  LSU goes at you full bore and the system not only allows, it expects, players to make big plays.  

LSU lives and dies off of big defensive plays and forcing turnovers.  The defense is out there not just to stop the offense, but to flip field position and give the offense a shortened field to work with.  It is great when it works, as it has for most of this season, but it also makes LSU vulnerable.  Miles is playing risk-reward, and hoping he never has to pay the price for it.

Star-divide

Barkevious Mingo overpersues when attacking off the edge.  Tyrann Matthieu gives up yards after the catch because he's going for the strip instead of making a form tackle.  Karnell Hatcher gives up a big play because he goes for the knockout blow instead of the tackle.  

These are all errors of aggression, and Miles seems okay with that.  Players don't get in trouble at LSU for being TOO aggressive.  They get rewarded.  Sure, Mingo might miss contain, but he's also a terror against pocket quarterbacks.  And the team has faith that someone else will plug the hole, usually Brandon Taylor.*

*Talk about unsung heroes.  The guy has completely earned the #18 jersey.  Usually, it's a bad thing when your safety has so many tackles, but with LSU, it's Taylor just covering for everyone else flying to the ball.  It's like he's the lone adult playing with a bunch of kids hopped up on speed.  He's the guy who has got to be responsible, allowing everyone else to just go crazy whenever they feel like it.  He's quietly the Defensive MVP.  There is no Honey Badger without his Responsible Babysitter picking up after him. 

As the season has progressed, teams have been unable to take advantage of LSU's all out attack on defense, and slowly (or rapidly) wilted as the game moved to the second half.  It's like the opposing boxer in the old mantra, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face."  Sometimes, you just get tired from getting punched in the face repeatedly.  

If any team can stick to a plan, it's Alabama.  They'll have a plan before getting punched in the face, and it'll be the same one after.  Saban's built a reputation as a bit of a strategic mastermind, so he must have a plan to use LSU's aggression against it. Therein lies the key to this game.  How can Alabama exploit LSU's tendency to attack?  Or can they?  The best way to attack LSU so far has been to have a mobile QB.  Those types of QB's have been able to elude sacks and at least get something positive in the face of LSU's pressure.  Pocket quarterbacks have been sitting ducks.  Andrew McCarron's no lead foot, but no one's going to confuse him for Cam Newton.  

The task for Saban is simple: exploit the obvious inefficiency in LSU's defense.  It's a flaw just sitting there, waiting to be taken advantage of.  All you have to do is find the right personnel and play calls to do it.  Simple, right?  

We preach simplicity a lot around these parts.  Just because something seems easy doesn't mean it is.  It's like hitting against Randy Johnson - all you have to do is get your timing down and hit his fastball.  Well, that's a simple plan, but pretty hard to actually implement. It's easy for me to sit here and say LSU's defense is over aggressive and an enterprising coach could use that aggression against LSU.  After all, I'm not the one who is getting punched in the face.

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"Everybody has a plan until they get hit."

Smartest thing to ever come out of Mike Tyson’s mouth.

Unless he’s reading this, in which case everything you have ever said is brilliant, Mr. Tyson.

Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook

by Billy Gomila on Nov 2, 2011 12:14 PM CDT reply actions  

George Forman said it too, I think

I don’t think Tyson’s the first.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur

by Poseur on Nov 2, 2011 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Lewis said it first

"If wanting to win is a fault, as some of my critics seem to insist, then I plead guilty. I like to win. I know no other way. It's in my blood." -- Paul "Bear" Bryant

by GeauxCrimson on Nov 2, 2011 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Vhat about Rocky Marciano?

/whipped Joe Lewis’ ass

Les Miles is my coach. You think you can show me the mouth of madness? I've worn madness' hat, and the fit was perfect.

by Matt 'n' The Hat on Nov 2, 2011 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Eddie Murphy

auto rec engaged

"If wanting to win is a fault, as some of my critics seem to insist, then I plead guilty. I like to win. I know no other way. It's in my blood." -- Paul "Bear" Bryant

by GeauxCrimson on Nov 2, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

I've actually heard him say a few smart things

they’re usually also completely insane, but I wouldn’t consider him dumb by any stretch.

You have been mad and drunken, furious and wild, filled with hatred and despair...but so have we - Thomas Wolfe, inadvertently commenting on college football.

by Yail Bloor on Nov 2, 2011 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Heard the same thing this morning...

I heard a sportswriter out of New Orleans that follows the Saints and LSU say that LSU’s achilles heel on defense was overpursuit leaving wide-open cutback lanes. He said if he’s seen it, Saban has seen it and will plan to take advantage of it. I hope we’ve adjusted.

by ScottForJC on Nov 2, 2011 12:20 PM CDT reply actions  

That's exactly what happened to us against AU last year. Well that and missed tackles...

We corrected that for the Oregon game, and played very disciplined vs MSU, but I’m not sure if I’ve seen us play with that same combination of discipline and intensity since.

2011 LSU Accolades:

"I really like corndogs" -Sparky

"Imperial Intergalactic Overlord Barkevious Mingo" -Andy Staples

"If Alabama's defense is a boa constrictor, slowly sucking the life out of opposing offenses, LSU's is more like a goon that throws the offense into a burlap sack and starts beating it with a stick." -Matt Hinton

"Oregon’s Chip Kelly is generally considered a coaching mastermind. Miles toyed with him here Saturday night." -Dan Wetzel, Yahoo Sports

"I don’t want to say that I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson…..but I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson." -Les Miles

by LSU Jonno on Nov 2, 2011 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

What I think is funny is that this is being written about OUR defense

This article is pretty much the truest thing ever written about Saban’s defenses. Does anyone remember the few times Saban’s defenses have been exposed? Remember RBs and TEs running free down the middle of the field into the empty space left behind by blitzing LBs and Safeties? All David Greene or Chris Leak had to do was hit the wide open receiver. Like the article says: simple, right? Difference was, Chris Leak was on his feet long enough to make that pass; David Greene, not so much. David Greene got hit. A lot.

The 3-4 he runs at Bama features less all-out blitzes, but is also susceptible to giving opposing QBs time when facing a strong O-line. That’s when the blitz packages will have to come out, and — looky! — there’s that open spot down the middle again. Question is, will either Lee or Jefferson be upright long enough to hit Peterson/Ware/etc. with a catchable pass?

At LSU —
Miles with Saban-recruited players on the roster: 79.2% win rate
Miles with no Saban-recruited players on the roster: 90.5% win rate
Saban with DiNardo-recruited players on the roster: 75.0% win rate
Saban with all Saban recruited players on the roster: 75.0% win rate

by King Joey on Nov 2, 2011 1:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Where's ATVSQBPI?

ATVS: If you have a pending piece for offense, then could you please include the ATVSQBPI for all the SEC QBs? I haven’t seen one of these all year. Be nice to compare Lee with McCarron and the others. Also, the bama site has a nice article on LSU and Bama versus common opponents. There were some expected groans about having to play against Brantly though. Could ATVS take it a step further and normalize the table of data for six quarters? Not that I think Brantly makes much of a difference, but they did have to play against them for 1H. Thx.

by tomsmail on Nov 2, 2011 1:30 PM CDT reply actions  

"How can Alabama exploit LSU's tendency to attack? Or can they?"

Every time I see Richardson fake protection and then release late for a screen pass, I groan. Whether by design or whether its on a checkdown, Bama has used it effectively. It’s also something LSU is just about tailor-made to whiff on.

And that’s not a knock on us. Just one of our tradeoffs.

by MikeDeTiger on Nov 2, 2011 2:54 PM CDT reply actions  

I have butterflies...

I used to throw up before games in HS and later on in junior college and then in fratball. I have that same feeling now and we’re the kickoff is still 4 days away. Is it too early to start drinkin’?

by Tiger6367 on Nov 2, 2011 3:01 PM CDT reply actions  

Disagree

And this goes back to my post in Billy’s interview with Kleph, but I think people are playing up the crazy aggressive coach too much. In 09 when we had Chavis, I remember everyone complaining about how Chad Jones would play 25 yards off the line of scrimmage, and we gave up too much underneath. That year teams actually did move on us a little bit between the 20’s, but our red zone defense was unbelievable.

That makes me disagree with the risk/reward, living and dying off of turnovers thing. We have absolutely shut down opponents AND forced big plays and turnovers. If LSU was such a gambling team, LaMichael James would’ve broken a big run, as would Vick Ballard, etc. The statistic that we have more interceptions than completions allowed on pass plays of 15+ yards backs this up. The only big plays I can think of that we’ve allowed are first when Tavon Austin (I think it was him) had that big catch and run, and secondly when Claiborne fell down and Florida got their touchdown on us.

I guess my overall point is, we’re doing what our talent allows us to do. Yes we bring heavy blitzes, but our secondary allows us to do that without it being considered risky. We’ve played much better offenses than Alabama’s, and haven’t been burned, risked a lot, or died by going for big plays. This is a dominant shut down defense that ALSO makes big plays.

I think people are trying to highlight the differences between the two teams too much. On a scale of 1-100 on shut down defenses, I’d say Alabama is 100 and LSU is 98. And on forcing turnovers and big plays, LSU is 100 and Alabama 98. They both do each extremely well, but people are trying to make the differences out to be more than they are.

by Squash on Nov 2, 2011 3:23 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Agreed about people trying to highlight differences

Despite what people may say, these teams are so alike its uncanny. Despite Nick Saban’s stern, statue-esque appearance, he actually jokes around with his players quite a bit. Despite Les Miles’ bumbling joker appearance, he’s actually quite methodical as well. That is perhaps what makes this game so big. Its two SCARY GOOD teams, that both excel in the same things, going at it.

"If wanting to win is a fault, as some of my critics seem to insist, then I plead guilty. I like to win. I know no other way. It's in my blood." -- Paul "Bear" Bryant

by GeauxCrimson on Nov 2, 2011 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think he's crazy

And I agree with Joey above – Saban plays the same gamble. But a lot of coaching is properly assessing the risk/reward of your gameplan. Miles is more comfortable with more risk for whatever reason, but it yields great rewards.

LSU’s had a great TO ratio the past few years, so much so that it can’t be considered a fluke. This team plays for turnovers. but part of T-Rex trying to strip the ball is sometimes the receiver keeps picking up yards. The reward of Mingo’s pass rush is balanced by the risk of the way he runs himself out of run contain. I used these examples for a reason — because LSU has paid the costs. Miles has just decided those costs are worth it for the rewards he’s going to gain.

It’s not crazy at all. He has the personnel to do it. but he does leave himself open to attack. Aggression is great, but it makes you vulnerable to the counterpunch (and screen passes).

LSU is perfectly willing to give up the risk of big plays in exchange of the reward of the defense making big plays. It’s not “crazy”. It’s calculating the risks and rewards. But there’s always risk.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur

by Poseur on Nov 2, 2011 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ok I see your point

But I would DEFINITELY say the reward outweighs the risk in these situations. If Mathieu strips the ball, end of possession. If he takes a little longer to make the tackle, then they gain 5 extra yards. If Mingo is too aggressive, instead of getting a huge loss we give up a small gain. I guess what i’m trying to say is we’re not risking that much because we never give up very big plays. So I don’t agree that we “die” off of trying to force turnovers, because it never costs us. We can have the first guy go for the strip because with the other 10 right behind him, there’s no danger of giving up a long touchdown.

by Squash on Nov 2, 2011 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

When your team is this good

The risk isn’t as great, because you’re probably not going to lose as much. If Mingo overpursues, it’s easier for someone else to pick him up because the D is so fast as a hole. Then you’re getting burned for 10 yards instead of 50.

You have been mad and drunken, furious and wild, filled with hatred and despair...but so have we - Thomas Wolfe, inadvertently commenting on college football.

by Yail Bloor on Nov 2, 2011 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

whole not hole, ha.

You have been mad and drunken, furious and wild, filled with hatred and despair...but so have we - Thomas Wolfe, inadvertently commenting on college football.

by Yail Bloor on Nov 2, 2011 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm with you Squash

this is an article I’m going to have to disagree with. Have those things happened? Yes. Are they the norm or happen more often than not? I’m definitely not seeing that.

I’m seeing Mingo squeeze the backside, taking away the cutback and run down an Oregon back like he was suppose to if he could ( and he could because of his incredible speed for a DE ). I’m seeing Honey Badger most often make a rip while making a solid tackle or playing QB spy as the defense called for it.

I think this goes back to Miles’ fakes and going for it on 4th – folks want to call it a ‘gamble’ when it was really a calculated decision. Miles put his players in a responsible position and allows them to make plays – ironically, much like Saban does.

by Xanathol on Nov 2, 2011 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

It doesn't matter how fast McCarron is or isn't

they can’t afford to let him take hits and chance getting hurt, cause their backup QB situation is nowhere near as good as ours. They’ve made a living hurting QBs this year, but if that happens to them they are in trouble. Same goes for the OL. They’ve got great starters, but injuries have depleted their depth.

You have been mad and drunken, furious and wild, filled with hatred and despair...but so have we - Thomas Wolfe, inadvertently commenting on college football.

by Yail Bloor on Nov 2, 2011 5:07 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm scared to death....

Of us having a game like the one at Auburn last season. I really hope that does not happen.

by ChadP7 on Nov 2, 2011 11:42 PM CDT reply actions  

Our offense is much better this year.

We missed a lot of tackles last year (which I don’t expect), but we had no offense whatsoever in that game. The defense was on the field all day.

You have been mad and drunken, furious and wild, filled with hatred and despair...but so have we - Thomas Wolfe, inadvertently commenting on college football.

by Yail Bloor on Nov 3, 2011 12:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

I just don't see it this year Poseur

Maybe we’ll be exposed Saturday – but I doubt it. And it’s not like Miles’ defenses have usually been high-risk/high-reward. The last two years people have constantly complained about 3rd and Chavis. And like others have said, it’s Saban that always seems to have a big blitz on 3rd and long – and he sometimes gets burned for it.

I think it’s more accurate to say that our scheme is not high-risk / high-reward, but that the coaches allow the players to take risks to make big plays. T-rex gives up an extra five yards trying to force a fumble. Miles says good job. If that was Saban’s player, he’d probably be screaming at him. Mingo overpursues on a play immediately after making a great sack – Miles says good job, don’t worry about it.

Similarly, if a player makes an aggressive play a split second late and gets called for a late hit or an out of bounds hit – Miles knows what hewere trying to do and leaves him in there. Saban screams at him and pulls him out.

But schematically, I think Saban’s defenses are much higher risk than Miles/Chavis. Claiborne will probably be on an island sometimes, but I wouldn’t be surprised if ODB is almost always in man-to-man.

by GeauxTiger on Nov 3, 2011 7:56 AM CDT reply actions  

Where do I say "we'll be exposed?"

I LIKE playing high risk.high reward. Especially with our personnel. I think constant aggression is the way to go. It’s up to Alabama to find a way to exploit our flaws (and every team has flaws). But it’s hard to do so when you have no time to make those decisions.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur

by Poseur on Nov 3, 2011 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

To me at least

It just sounds like you’re saying too much about how we “die” off of big plays, and focusing on the risk…when in reality we don’t risk anything because of the personnel we have. Considering we have played several of the top offenses in the country and haven’t allowed hardly any big plays, I think that’s evidence that our defense isn’t taking too many HIGH risk plays. High REWARD, yes, but the talent of our defense allows the plays to be high-reward/low-risk.

by Squash on Nov 3, 2011 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not to get into a bout with you Squash

but I think you are putting the emphasis on the ‘risk’ – Poseur acknowledged that if we have a weakness, that’s it and if you’re going to get over on our defense, that’s how but good luck with that.

It’s like saying you can stop an M1 Abrams if you can walk up to the hatch an drop in a grenade, good luck with that.

I do agree with your wording in that its low risk/high reward but that is really what Poseur was saying, at least that’s how I took it.

GEAUX TIGERS!!!

by SouthernMan on Nov 3, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah I agree

I guess I just didn’t think we do much “dying” this year. Most other defenses, yes. This defense is too good to be consistently risking big plays…..knock on wood.

by Squash on Nov 3, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

B. Taylor

Couldn’t agree more. He is absolutely the MVP of the defense, helping the young guys get lined up correctly so they can make big plays and cleaning up after everyone on the back end. With him back there I never worry about the big play.

If I am remembering correctly he was out for the AU game last year and I remember thinking he would have been the difference in that game.

by dallaslsu on Nov 3, 2011 9:02 AM CDT reply actions  

Absolutely, yes.

He’s been fantastic for two seasons. Not sure about AU, but against Ar-Kansas there’s no doubt we win that game if he’s playing.

by TigerTex on Nov 3, 2011 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

I am dumb

yeah – he was in there for the AU game, at least I found a pic of him in the archive

by dallaslsu on Nov 3, 2011 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

Alabama field conditions

A reader posted about Claiborne falling down in the Florida game allowing a touchdown pass. From what I gather the weather conditions will be near ideal, but does anyone know what kind of turf and field conditions exist in Alabama’s Stadium? Have seen no mention of this in the media nor do I recall any problems in past televised games.

by Rico66 on Nov 3, 2011 10:10 AM CDT reply actions  

I do recall

Gary and Verne talking about the Tiger Stadium turf that week and how the field crew couldn’t figure out why the field was all torn up.

I can’t imagine Bama’s turf would have any issues with a few weeks of being prepared ahead of the game.

by dallaslsu on Nov 3, 2011 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

the field was terrible

I’m tempted to add – as usual….don’t know what the deal is about that.

by GeauxTiger on Nov 3, 2011 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

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