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2011 LSU Baseball Preview: Pitchers

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Yep, he's still out of eligibility

 

Let's not mince words, LSU's pitching sucked last season. The 5.58 ERA doesn't begin to tell the story of just how ineffective the starting pitching was, whether due to injuries or simple ineffectiveness. Mainieri floundered around searching for someone, anyone, who could take the mound. Nine different Tigers started at least one game, and seven started at least five games. It was a season in which the coaches just threw everything against the wall and waited to see what stuck. 

LSU's two top pitchers, Ross and Ranaudo, are gone to the Majors. Matulis has transferred. Bourgeois and Rittiner have both undergone surgery and are out for the season. The other two pitchers who started five games, Reed and Bradshaw, have been demoted. So for a team coming off a disastrous pitching year, losing a ton of talent, the rotation is remarkably solid.

Star-divide

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The line is ERA/W-L-S/K-BB/IP. 

SP
Ben Alsup, SR  3.88/5-1-0/33-16/48.2 IP
Kevin Gausman, FR 6th round pick
Tyler Jones, JR 3.01/9-2 in JUCO, 1st team JUCO All American
Daniel Bradshaw, SR  5.01/5-1-0/29-12/46.2 IP

Ben Alsup is the team's ace.  He was one of the last options in the rotation last year, but he finally broke into a starting role in the last weeks of the year.  His 3.88 ERA is the best among returning players, which is fairly depressing, but he has a good chance to lower that number this season.  He'll be joined by two newcomers, Gausman and Jones.

Guasman is about as exciting as a prospect get.  He has hit 100 MPH on the gun, and is generally considered one of the top freshmen pitchers in the nation.  He very easily could have taken the MLB millions, but instead saved our class by simply showing up.  Jones doesn't have nearly the pedigree, but he was a JUCO All-American and pitched in the JUCO World Series.  He also is a power pitcher, giving LSU a pretty potent one-two punch.

I'm not sure what to say about Bradshaw.  He will be a midweek starter and might see the weekend if one of the newcomers underperforms.  Yes, his ERA was above five, but he has pretty good peripherals, with a K/BB ration around 2.5.  Bradshaw has also come up big in the postseason, so while it's unlikely he'll ever become a star, he can still be a valuable contributor to this team.  I think Mainieri would be thrilled if he could use Bradshaw as a relief ace, coming in for 2 to 3 innings as needed.

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RIGHTY
Randal Meyer, FR
Coklin Nguyen, FR
Kurt McCune, FR
Nick Rumbelow, FR
Michael Reed, SO  9.15/0-0-1/13-12/20.2 IP

How bad was Michael Reed last season? While that's an ugly stat line, it gets even uglier when you remember he started five games, yet only pitched 20 innings.  He was just a tremendously ineffective pitcher, and now he's the only righty in the pen with any experience.  Rumbelow has been used heavily in the intrasquad scrimmages, and he seems like the most likely candidate to emerge as the righty specialist out of the pen. We're going to miss Bertucinni. 

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LEFTY

Mitchell Hopkins, JR
Chris Cotton, SO  5.32/2-0-1/12-4/22 IP
Forrest Garrett, FR

Last year, LSU simply didn't have any reliable lefties in the pen.  Now, it seems like there might be some viable options.  Cotton was decent in limited duty, and is not out of the picture to earn the occasional start.  Hopkins is yet another player from LSU-E, and brings at least some experience from working in the pen.  Garret may or may not pitch this year, as he is still recovering from Tommy John surgery.  However, his timetable should have him back by the meat of the SEC schedule. 

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The Chalmation Sensation

CLOSER
Matty Ott, JR 6.38/2-4-11/40-21/42.1 IP

Nothing symbolized the difficulties of LSU's pitching staff last year more than Matty Ott's inexplicable season.  Seriously, what happened?  He went from completely unhittable to imminently hittable.  Barring injury, Ott is going to break the all-time school saves record.  Hopefully, he will resemble more of his freshman self when he does it.  If Ott can bounce back to even half of what he was, he'll be the best closer in the conference. 

SWING
Samuel Peterson, FR, R, P/C
Kevin Berry, SO, R, P/INF
Joe Broussard, FR, R, P/INF
Ryan Eades, FR, S, P/INF
Kirk Cunningham, JR, R, P/INF
Jimmy Dykstra, SO, R, P/OF

That's a lot of fresh meat.  It's also a lot of young players who are so untested, the LSU website lists them as both a pitcher and a position player.  These are the guys who can go either way, and we really have no idea how they will help the team.  And a guy like Ryan Eades is one of the top prospects in the country and hopefully can contribute right away as a pitcher.  Just because we don't know how these players will help does not mean they won't. 

All in all, we could be looking at a pitching resurgence this season.  The pitching took an unexpected nosedive last year, and could just as quickly right itself.  There is plenty of talent here, it's just time to put it together.  Let's also not underrate the importance of a tremendous defense behind the staff.  Austin Nola and Mikie Mahtook up the middle can make just about anyone look good.

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Reading the recruiting hype…I assumed that Eades along with Gausman would win weekend starter jobs. What’s the Story on Eades? How’s his practices been? Are we mainly using him in the field or is he mainly pitching?

Also, can you comment on the number of dual role guys that we have? Your list of pitchers/position players seems huge! Is that normal for a team and we just don’t notice it because these guys usually settle into one role over the course of the season?

Also, on the starters you left off if they are righties or lefties. Can you add that in?

Is this enough questions for you?

"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7

by LSU Jonno on Feb 8, 2011 7:57 AM CST reply actions  

Answers...

Eades is supposed to be a terrific pitcher but he’s not one of the starters, mainly because Alsup locked down a starting role and Gausman and Jones are pretty touted prospects in their own right. I wouldn’t worry too much about it just yet, as Mainieri has shown he loves having a relief ace, aside from the closer. Eades may be auditioning for that job and an eventual move to the rotation. Think Louis Coleman.

i wouldn’t worry about the dual roles. Most of them will be pitchers, it’s just that is how they are listed, and they are freshmen, so I’d hate to write them off as positional players. Aside from Eades and Dykstra, most of these guys are depth. I just hate speculating on freshmen, but it is normal to have guys with dual roles coming out of high school. The best player is usually both your pitcher and your shrtstop in high school. Time to choose.

All of our starters are righties.

Nope. Keep ’em coming.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!

by Poseur on Feb 8, 2011 8:29 AM CST up reply actions  

I wasn’t worrying about our dual role players, just curious if that was normal.

Is it safe to say that it takes a little longer for some freshman baseball players to find a position than say freshman football players? It seems like in football we have one or two guys a year (out of a team of 85 players) that we aren’t quite sure where he’ll play when he signs. You have a list of 6 guys ouf of a 25 man roster (?) that you aren’t quite sure where they’ll land. Just wondering if that is normal or if this is a 4-sigma type year or something.

Why is nobody else commenting on these posts? It’s freakin baseball season!

"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7

by LSU Jonno on Feb 8, 2011 11:17 AM CST up reply actions  

lots of question marks in this post so don't feel like you need to address each one. I am more trying to think through it.

I was thinking about your comment from the position preview about pitching to contact being an potential philosophy for this year with Hanover and Nola guarding the middle. Did we try that last year? And more to the point, I know that certain types of pitches tend to lead to ground balls, but is switching to a pitching to contact (what I think of as inducing weaker contact) mode even possible for your avg college pitcher? ie, if you are not strike out machine, then aren’t you a pitch to contact guy by default?

I guess what I am asking is if you have any insight into why we wouldn’t try this last year since Nola and Hanover were already there. Or if we did try it, why wasn’t it effective?

Of course, I am ignoring the debate about whether pitching to contact is even possible at all. Some say that it is entirely a combination of defense and chance (I just got a copy of Baseball Between the Numbers so I ask advance forgiveness if I screw up by misusing a fancy statistic) meaning that pitching to contact is not skill. But then you see guys whose K rates go down, their GB rate go up and they are just as effective while throwing fewer pitches. Is that a conscious choice? Chance or skill? Maybe some combination of both? Me still a NOOBZ at this, but it is damn interesting.

Another intersting thing is that Alsup and Bradshaw’s lines are almost identical other than a huge ERA difference. I wonder if we could get a WHIP comparison or something similar to maybe compare them more directly.

by haveagreatday on Feb 8, 2011 12:05 PM CST reply actions  

Pitching to contact

Alsup is more of a guy who did not attempt to miss bats than either Ross or Ranuado. Bourgeois was also a striekout pitcher, so we’re losing three of our biggest K pitchers. Bradshaw’s also a guy who relies heavily on his defense. That’s not a knock, I think sometimes its a good strategy. Also, while the middle defense is the same, there are two things which have changed, both helping “contact” pitchers for lack of a better term:

ONE. The bats have changed. Last year, a mistake could easily lead to a home run. LSU gave up 79 homers last year, one more than we hit. Keep it in the park.

TWO. While the middle defense is the same, the corner defense is much improved. Gaudet and Dean were great hitters, but both were liabilities in the field (though Gaudet mainly was a DH). Third base was a hole of non-productivity. Watkins got hurt and Landry wasn’t as good as his rep. Edward moves from third to first, where he can do less damage. I think that improves the defense all over.

Pitching to contact is certainly a skill. K rates and BB rates are fairly consistent (yes, I’ve read the same book). What isn’t a skill is what happens to that ball once it is contacted and stays in the park. A pitcher has virtually no control over whether a non-HR batted ball becomes a hit or an out. The stat which measures the defense is called Defensive Efficeincy, which is the rate a defense turns balls in plays into outs.

Last year, and I know I discussed it during the losing streak if you want to dig through the archives, is that our BABIP (BA on balls in play) was pretty terrible at times. which is simple bad luck for pitchers. I think we can decrease that BABIP on two fronts: regression to the mean (luck evening out) and improved defense.

DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics) haven’t quite translated to college, but it’s still a good idea to look at a pitcher’s K rate, BB rate, his K/BB ratio, and his HR rate before evaluting the ERA. That’s the best way to guess who will improve or regress (it’s an educated guess, but still a guess). Alsup and Bradshaw do have VERY similar K and BB rates, so what’s the difference between the two?

HR’s ALLOWED:
Bradhsaw – 9
Alsup – 3

Alsup was probably the best pitcher at keeping it in the yard and Bradshaw might’ve been the worst. You’re right, interesting stuff. If the bats really do perform more like wood, the big winner could be Bradshaw if he sees his HR rate plummet.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!

by Poseur on Feb 8, 2011 2:17 PM CST reply actions  

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