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BBCOR and LSU - How The New Bats Have Affected LSU Baseball So Far

Going into the season, much was made of the new BBCOR bats (here's a refresher for those unaware of the subject) and how it would be the death of southern Power Ball in the college game. But as the season has gone on, LSU hasn't really seen a perceptible power outage, at least it doesn't feel like it.

But what is really happening? To find out, I compiled the stats from the non-conf slate of this year and the previous year to hopefully see what effect these new bats had had on both LSU and the opposition's offense.

Some details on these statistics before we continue: They are complied through the 1st 16 games of the 2010 and 2011 seasons. All games were played at home at Alex Box Stadium. Also remember that these numbers aren't against great teams. In fact, it's safe to say there was only 1 series against serious competition each year: Kansas in 2010 and CS-F in 2011. And also remember this year we are without the top 3 hitters from last year's team.

 

LSU 2010 LSU 2011 Change +/- %
Hits 140 151 + 11 +7.86%
Runs 182 169 - 13 -7.14%
Doubles 33 36 + 3 +9.09%
Triples 8 3 -5 -62.50%
HR 22 14 -8 -36.36%
Bunts 4 21 +17 +425.00%
Opposition Errors 28 43 +15 +53.57%

 

 

No surprise, but yes the numbers are down in the power categories. The more than 1/3 drop in the HR total is the smoking gun that the BBCOR regs are accomplishing one of it's stated goals of reigning in even further the power game in college ball. But the more interesting stats are the runs and doubles. As mentioned, we've lost the top 3rd of our offense from last year's roster, but our scoring isn't nearly as down as you would expect, given the circumstances. The reason, I think, is that we are still putting the ball in play, and that plus the aggressive base running we have seen so far is keeping the scoring up. We still see the big 3-6 run innings, but to borrow a phrase from football, it's coming on the ground as opposed to through the air.

And yeah, that offseason focus on small ball is really paying off. If my memory serves, we've even laid down a successful suicide squeeze at least once in every weekend series. All this ground ball is making more work for the opposition as well and forcing more errors which just leads to extra bases and more success.

Star-divide

 

Opp. 2010 Opp. 2011 Change +/- %
Hits 75 56 -19 -25.33%
Runs 143 102 -41 -28.67%
Doubles 26 14 -12 -46.15%
Triples 1 0 -1 -100.00%
HR 9 8 -1 -11.11%
Bunts 9 8 -1 -11.11%
LSU Errors 14 25 +11 +78.57%

 

 

The effect on the opposition is even more profound, with major drops in every statistical category. There were some who thought reigning in the long ball would shrink the gap between good and bad teams but it's only widened it (though I wouldn't discount it being caused by better LSU starting pitching). You can also see one of the real worries I have about this team going into SEC play: we are sloppy on D. Just as our opponents errors have helped us, our own fielding woes will have serious repercussions if we can't do better in conference games.

I'll be keeping track of these stats through the remainder of the season and post updates periodically. As with most statistics, your interpretations may vary. Please feel free to share in the comments.

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Is it possible that our bunting and bunt attempts is actually having a significant impact on the home run total? That’s a lot of at bats used to bunt.

It’s hard to tell exactly what the impact of the new bats has been given that the team’s philosophy of hitting has also changed.

I suspect our offensive numbers will decline against teams with better defense. We’ve had a lot of bunts go for singles in the past 2 weeks off of errant throws and whatnot. That’s a lot of potential extra outs.

by GeauxTiger on Mar 17, 2011 12:58 PM CDT reply actions  

Is it possible that our bunting and bunt attempts is actually having a significant impact on the home run total?

Significant…no.

If we hit 1 HR per 10 AB (which we don’t) our 20 bunts would give us 2 more HRs.

"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7

by LSU Jonno on Mar 17, 2011 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Two home runs, at this point of the season, is statistically significant

It’ll be very interesting to see what happens when (if?) defenses start shoring up. So far the Tigers have benefited from some crazy error-inducing voodoo that’s somehow affected every team we’ve gone up against. Assuming that’s a blip, we’re punching way above our weight offensively right now. The more interesting question is whether somehow, some way, the new bats are having an effect on fielding — the ball comes out a different way, or who knows what? If so, the inflated errors #s (and LSU’s are inflated too, despite 3B being apparently shored up) may be here to stay.

The real story though is the vastly improved LSU pitching numbers. Problem is, without a NCAA-wide set of stats to compare them to as a control group, you can’t tell what part is our pitchers being better and what part is the dead bats. I think it’s obvious they’re both factors, but there’s no way to tell which is the more important factor.

Don't Panic.

by 4.0 Point Stance on Mar 17, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well we can debate if 2 HR's is significant

Which I still say it isn’t…

But the point is that our HR numbers are closer to 1 HR per 20 AB’s, which would give us about 1 HR extra this year…And if you wanted to take into account who was doing the bunting it may make it even less significant.

"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7

by LSU Jonno on Mar 17, 2011 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Should be "affected"

/grammar Nazi’d

In the history of college football, no player, no coach, no guru, compares with [Les] Miles’s masterful incorporation of applied chaos theory and time relativity into strategic game planning. Simply put, the man is on another level. A level many don’t or can’t understand. Genius.

by Gregatron on Mar 17, 2011 1:27 PM CDT reply actions  

damnit

Managing Editor/Chief Lackey-And The Valley Shook THE LSU Tigers Blog of the Week for 52,136 Weeks in a Row and Counting

by PodKATT on Mar 17, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

" All this ground ball is making more work for the opposition as well and forcing more errors which just leads to extra bases and more success."

we have had something like 5 suicide squeezes so far this year. and already more bunts than all of last year. add to that, we are stealing anything that isn’t nailed down. the agressiveness witht he base running is pressuring a lot of the errors the other teams are making.

and technically, the bats arent dead. there is a sweet spot with a nice pop. it’s just a much smaller sweet spot, which is gonna make it that much harder to connect with when we get into the meat of the schedule.

by OkieKATT on Mar 17, 2011 3:26 PM CDT reply actions  

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