Jarrett Lee's Final Act
by Poseur on Aug 30, 2011 12:01 PM CDT
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PrintJarrett Lee is our starting quarterback. Heaven help us.
I actually like Lee. I've always liked Lee. Don't believe me? Here's what I wrote about Lee in 2008, back when most LSU fans were hanging the poor freshman in effigy...
I'll be honest. Jarrett Lee is becoming one of my favorite Tigers ever. Because it takes a lot of strength to listen to so many boos and so much negativity only to keep coming out there. I find it hard to relate to great players, but I can relate to Lee. He has failed, sometimes spectacularly so. I hate to lay the Alabama game on one player, but he did play a pretty miserable game. But he also had a great drive in the fourth quarter of that game. He never, ever gives up. He knows there is no one to back him up, he's the only option. In the spring, he was our third string quarterback, and now he's the only quarterback we have. He wasn't ready, but he hasn't whined or complained. The fans have turned on him pretty viciously, but he still plays his heart out for them. And he has delivered. Not always, but enough. He has this team at 7-3, which isn't too bad for a third-stringer.
I may be proud of the team, but I'm especially proud of our quarterback. I don't care who Pittman hands out the hardware to, but Lee is my ATVSSECOSPPOW. Thanks, Jarrett. We're cheering for you.
My opinion hasn't change much. What I like about Jarrett Lee is that he is so mortal. He was thrown into frying pan way before he was ready, and he has carried the scars of freshman year for his entire career. He's seen the starting job go to Jefferson and several anointed saviors who haven't panned out (Damn you, Zach Lee!), and he's seen people like, er, us publicly speculate on why he should transfer and start over.
But he hasn't. He has stuck through the bad times and the boo birds, and here is, back in the starting gig. Maybe he's gotten over 2008. I hope so. Lee's issues have always been more mental than physical. But let's look at last year's performance for guidance, using our favorite tool to rate QB's: ATVSQBPI.
For new members of ATVS, here's a refresher on our custom metric, ATVSQBPI.
Jefferson and Lee posted nearly identical ATVSQBPI's last year: JJ at 5.55 and Lee at 5.42. However, they couldn't have gotten to those rather pedestrian ratings more differently. First, the average SEC QB had an ATVSQBPI rating of 6.86 last year. Only two starters had a worse rating than the LSU starters, John Brantley (4.83) and Larry Smith (4.43). That's right, both QB's underperformed Matt friggin Simms (5.76). So let's keep perspective, neither QB was very good.
The first major difference is that the bulk of Jefferson's value comes from running the football while Lee's running is a negative. If rushing was removed from his totals, Jefferson loses about a quarter of his yardage and half of his touchdowns. Lee, on the other hand, had 10 rushes for -46 yards. That isn't good.
Lee threw for a higher completion percentage. He was a more efficient quarterback. The only SEC quarterback with a worse completion percentage than Jefferson was Smith. Lee wasn't among the league leaders, but he at least topped 60%. That's the other major difference.
But the biggest difference is that Jefferson improved over the course of the year and Lee declined. Jefferson played poorly all the way through October, bottoming out in the Auburn game in which he went 7-14 for 46 yards and an INT. Jefferson's ATVSQBPI through the first two months was a depressing 4.00. From that point on, Jefferson posted a 7.916, which is Aaron Murray territory. And he wasn't doing this against the Sisters of the Poor, this included games against three ranked teams, including Alabama.
Jarrett Lee only played sparingly in September, but in the first seven games of the year, he earned a larger role in the offense and posted an ATVSQBPI of 7.29. Lee also played a pretty big part in the Tennessee and Florida wins, to give the guy credit. Then came the Auburn game.
Lee didn't play awful against Auburn, but he wasn't much better than Jefferson (8-14, 43 yards, 0 TD or INT). Lee would play less and less as Jefferson morphed into Jefferswag, but Lee didn't really help his own cause. His ATVSQBPI in the last six games was an astonishing 3.09.
Just as quickly as Lee played himself into the lineup, he played himself out of it. Well, now Lee has to hope the first half of the season is the Real Lee, and the second half was just because he couldn't get enough work to find a rhythm.
I have no idea how Lee will react to being a starter. Absolutely none. But I can tell you I'll be rooting for him. People love an underdog, and Jarrett Lee's career is nothing but that. Redemption would be a perfect coda to the most vilified LSU quarterback since Jamie Howard.
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People need to slow their rolls on Lee
I think he can absolutely help this team win, but a lot of the “General Lee” savior talk needs to die down. The last thing this kid needs is more pressure. I’ll break this down a little bit more later in the week.
And after seeing a lot of Humanoids’ reactions to the Jefferson investigation, I would submit that HE is the most vilified LSU QB since Jamie Howard. People are rooting for Lee to succeed, and a disgustingly high number of them were HOPING Jefferson would get in trouble.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
General Lee
Let me defend the nickname as some have objected to it.
Robert E Lee is a pretty famous general and QBs are often called field generals. Lee is a southern icon and we are a southern school.
The Fightin Tigers mascot comes from a Civil War division which fought under Lee. So it even makes sense from a LSU standpoint.
Not every reference to the Civil War is racist. Embrace what the Drive-by Truckers call “the duality of the Southern thing.”
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur
by Poseur on Aug 30, 2011 12:55 PM CDT via iPhone app up reply actions 1 recs
Its a Jungian Thing!!!
8/17/2011, a day that shall live on inside every dream of triumph.
by Quack Patty on Aug 30, 2011 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh I don't object to the nickname at ALL
Just the whole “savior” meme. Don’t get me wrong, it would be a fantastic story, and I’d be as happy as anybody for Lee.
But lets let him crawl before we start expecting him to become a great sprinter.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Aug 30, 2011 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions
+ 1 "Southern" Man
I’ll salute the general when he takes that thar hill.
(I spect he will)
GEAUX TIGERS!!!
He plays with a lot of passion
and that’s great, but he definitely can get worked up and start flinging the ball all over the place – and we’ve seen the results of that. He needs to play smart, not try to win the game by himself and make plays when they’re there.
Men, there's a little crippled boy sitting in a hospital who wants you to win this game. I know because I crippled him myself to inspire you.
I believe I am the person who objected
To clarify: I don’t think the name is racist a priori, and I certainly don’t think that the people who are using it here are doing so with that intent; but, the circumstances of the situation are sticky (white QB replacing black QB) and have apparently brought out the worst in the worst segment of the fanbase. If those people decide to latch onto the meme (which seems pretty likely), it’s going to be hard to use it without being lumped in with that crowd. If yall want to use it, that’s fine obviously. That’s just my personal opinion.
Men, there's a little crippled boy sitting in a hospital who wants you to win this game. I know because I crippled him myself to inspire you.
DBT! DBT! DBT!
They are playing Dallas on Friday night. Come to Dallas and see the greatest band and the great college football team on the planet in the same weekend.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur
I agree, coming right from TigerDroppings--not so much the history/the man himself, but the idea that Lee has to win the game savior idea (I see you already responded below saying the same thing)...
I do like how some over there have turned it into a Duke’s of Hazzard thing with a purple or gold general lee with 12 on the side.
Reporter: What would you say a Greg Studrawa offense is like? Stud:
"Attack and be very physical…fly around…attacking, come after you and come after you and come after you…." Me: I love this answer.
GET TO THE RIM HEAT (and SKY)! ATTACK THE PAINT!
Oregon's gonna send the heat, and with no mobility, Lee will probably struggle.
Both these teams are in a great position to be #1 or #2 with a win. Alot is riding on this game.
The most important thing is that the loser is not out of the NCG picture.
The difference between 2008/2009 and now...
We have an offensive line with talent and depth, and we have a running game to lean on.
Neither Lee nor Jefferson had either of those things early in their careers, which I think greatly contributed to their struggles. The improved offensive line and running game this season should take pressure off the quarterback, and allow him to make plays, no matter who is taking the snaps.
Lee doesn’t have to be great, he just needs to be better than Jefferson was last year, which I think he can do. He doesn’t have to be a savior, or a great QB. He just needs to go out there and be methodical and consistent.
Over the last 2 seasons, he’s thrown about 129 passes, with only 2 INT’s. He’s not the wide-eyed freshman he was in ‘08 anymore. This is why he stuck around, he’ll be ready to play.
If I recall correctly
The 2008 offensive line Lee had to work with was fairly veteran, many of the same guys from the 2007 championship team. We ran the the ball with Charles Scott behind them very well that year also, unlike the abortion of a running game/OL that was 2009.
On the other hand, in 2008 Brandon Lafell was also the SEC’s second leading receiver, behind only A.J. Green with Matt Stafford throwing to him. (Surprised?) The pick 6’s hurt, but we averaged something like 33 ppg and were nowhere near the cellar of national passing statistics like the last two years. He threw a slew of INTs and 6 pick 6’s. That’s not as huge a deal as some made it out, and I believe people forget the real problem with 2008 was that we had a defense that seemingly enjoyed watching other teams score. Also don’t forget that some of his ill-advised throws came BECAUSE we were always playing from behind with that defense and Lee was forced to throw far more than any freshman should ever be asked. We’re not going to have that handicap this year and should be able to rely more heavily on the run and clock control.
He won’t convert busted plays with his legs like JJ, and he takes away our threat for the QB keeper at the goal line. But as a pure passer, Lee’s upside has always been better than JJ’s. It’s just that his downside is worse (imo). If he can keep the meltdowns in check, we still have a chance to be a good offense.
Actually, the 2008 offense is a lot worse than people remember
Averaged 30.9 PPG, 1 more than the 2010 edition, and just 25 yards more per game (368-343). In fact, the two teams had almost identical stats in SEC competition. The only real statistical difference were blowout wins over Appalachian State and North Texas. And both offenses were even similar in the turnover margin (20 in 08, 24 in 2010), with the difference being that the 08 team actually had way more interceptions and less fumbles, and the 08 defense didn’t get any on their own the way the 2010 one did.
The biggest difference between Lee and Jefferson is that while Jefferson’s worst game is merely unproductive, Lee’s worst game can be counter-productive. Half of Lee’s interceptions came with LSU tied or leading, so its not necessarily true to say he was always trying to make up for the defense either. Of course, Gary Crowton still did an atrocious job of managing him, and the seniors on that team were of no help either. There’s mitigating circumstances to be sure, but Lee struggled pretty mightily and he has to own some of that.
Honestly, it all goes back to how the coaches manage the quarterbacks on this team. If the offense adjusts more to what he does well, Lee (and this would have gone for Jefferson as well) has an opportunity to be successful. That’s where the rubber meets the road.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Aug 30, 2011 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Absolutely
I’m not absolving him of responsibility. But at no point in 2009 with JJ did Lafell come close to being an SEC leading receiver. He was in 2008. Stats are a great place to start, but they rarely tell the whole story. Lee got him the ball better. Whether or not that translates to better games overall is up for debate. Clearly JJ’s skillset of running and not panic-throwing off his back foot helped our cause just as throwing down field would help our cause.
I also happen to believe that after the Alabama loss, the seniors mostly mailed it in after that and that they hung Lee out to dry in the Ole Miss game, but you may disagree.
And seriously….nobody will ever convince me that Lee was a bigger problem than the defense that year. I think he was hanged by the boo birds for not being able to get us out of those games, but I think most would look back at his freshman year more favorably—troubles and all—if we’d had our typical defense that could win games for us.
There are just some things he does better than JJ—at times—and I don’t think anybody gives him credit for that.
Completely agree with the seniors mailing it in at the end of 08, and I never said Lee was a bigger problem than the defense in 2008. But he was a pretty big one.
It’s not a case of not being willing to give Lee credit (he certainly deserves some), its about looking at the whole picture. He absolutely does some things better than Jefferson, but he also does some things worse.
Again, I’ll delve into this a little more closer to game time.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Aug 30, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, for sure
He does some things worse. Mainly mentally, imo. I will be happy if he can just avoid mental meltdowns I’ve seen from him in the past. Do that, and we probably have ourselves a serviceable QB. Fail to do that, and like agreed with you, his downside is worse than JJ’s.
Just playing devil’s advocate—I also see the “He won us the UT/UF/Bama games last year!” meme out there on the InterWebz. While technically true, I also happen to think he did as well as he did in those situations mainly because he wasn’t required to shoulder most of the load. I’m not so sure that if he’d been playing the whole time that he wouldn’t have been so damaged in his psyche by the end of those games that he’d have been able to helm those scoring drives.
not you, specifically
“anybody” as in, the general InterWebz twits. I see people act like we are definitely doomed with Lee, and I don’t get it. I have delusional optimism ;)
Anybody out there think we'll see some Jerrard Randall?
As you guys know – this freshman QB is a former Oregon commit (so I’ve seen a ton of his HS film) and he sure strikes me as a special athlete.
Amazing speed, amazing arm strength and as a duck fan, I’m glad he doesn’t have any game experience (yet).
Nah
Looks like he’s running the scout team and redshirting. Most have said that if (God forbid) it came down to it, Stephen Rivers would be the next QB in after Lee and Mettenberger.
We could see some Wildcat plays with running backs Spencer Ware and Terrance Magee though. Both are former HS QB’s and Ware through a TD last year against Auburn.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Aug 30, 2011 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions
By the way, with all these crazy circumstances
surrounding pre-season, I have to believe Les is in his element. My dad always told me to avoid fights with people who like fighting….you just can’t whip people like that who are enjoying it. The clutch moments of the grand stage that most coaches are afraid of, Les lives for. That’s why we win games like the Alabama game. And the Florida game. And the…..well, you know them by heart. Because the dire moments most coaches and teams are secretly afraid of, Les relishes. Here is my sig from another board, feel free to poach it:
“Some men fear hurricanes, and some flee from them. Les Miles lives in the eye. Surrounded by chaos and destructive force, he calmly eats taffy and chews grass. Where even angels fear to trod, he calls home.”
No matter what crazy stuff this team goes through in the offseason, there’s nobody I trust more than Miles to get us through it.
by MikeDeTiger on Aug 30, 2011 1:52 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Miles vs. Kelly is must watch TV for this reason
We all know that Miles is BatShit Crazy enough to do anything at anytime
But one could argue that Kelly is just as nutty – take a look at last years Stanford game http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=302752483. Oregon went for it on 4th down TWICE (early in the game) – kicked an onside kick IN THE FIRST HALF and wound up putting 52 points on a tough Cardinal D. And if you’re thinking Oregon isn’t physical enough – ask Stanford’s top receiver Chris Owusu (Who was lying unconscious on the turf as Eddie Pleasant ran down the sideline with a recovered fumble).
This one is gonna be whacky
by Coach Brooks on Aug 30, 2011 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
People really need to get out of this archaic thinking
If you have talent, 4th down is another chance to move the ball. I’m sure some people here read it but some statistician guy did a study & said that anything under 4th & 3, regardless of your actual field position, the numbers are hugely in your favor in terms of risk v. reward to go for it on 4th down.
People love to opine to ostensibly to “play to win” but many, many coaches are actually safety first, play not to lose guys. Even if you line up to kick a field goal & get the points. It would still take 2 more drives of field goals to better points reward for a TD. The risk outweighs the reward in that case. Too many people are stuck in this outdated mindset of 4th down = punt except in extreme circumstances. Yes, not getting the 1st down on 4th can swing momentum sometimes, but the rewards gained in terms of time possession & field position outweigh the risks often enough that going for it on 4th down regularly really isn’t “wacky” at all. It’s actually the better strategy, especially if you have talented athletes.
I must create my belief system lest I be enslaved by another - Thomas Paine
by Curtis Bleaux on Aug 30, 2011 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Also, personally, coaches risk a lot by going on 4th down, since it’s against the accepted wisdom.
Geaux Tigers! Go Ducks! (No, I don't care.) Go Braves, and most of all WHO DAT!
That appears to be why they don't do it..
They know that they personally will be criticized for it if it fails, where they won’t be criticized for punting.
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
by Richard Pittman on Sep 2, 2011 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Randle needs to have a huge game.
He’s the only established WR playing. Hopefully the freshman will step up, but you never know. We’re going to need a few big plays in the passing game – probably off play action – to open up the run a little bit.
Men, there's a little crippled boy sitting in a hospital who wants you to win this game. I know because I crippled him myself to inspire you.
by Yail Bloor on Aug 30, 2011 3:38 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
As a Duck fan, I find myself conflicted here.
Obviously, I want Oregon to win.
But then I saw Lee’s presser, and…
HE HAS THE EXACT SAME WISPY BLONDE NON-SOUL PATCH THAT I DO. Seriously. It’s like he stole it right off my face. And suddenly, I feel a remarkable kinship to the guy. So now I have to root for the Ducks to win but for Lee to do really well, which will send my stress levels through the stratosphere. SO THANKS FOR PUTTING ME IN THE HOSPITAL JARRETT oh come on you know I can’t stay mad at you —
(Oh, and this first comment of mine seems like an excellent time for me to tell you guys that you have a terrific blog, and I’ll likely continue reading after the Cowboy Classic, and I’ll be rooting for the Tigers whenever they’re not playing my Ducks. Or my Broncos, if that happens somehow.)
"[Autzen Stadium's] steep concrete banks and closed ends turn a small but rabid crowd from WAC-sized cheering section into a horde of bees with megaphones capable of reaching 127 decibels of hatenoise." -Spencer Hall
Oh, and HT: AllSaintsDay for pointing this out to me. He told me he’ll be referring to the way I look as “rocking the Jarrett” from now on.
"[Autzen Stadium's] steep concrete banks and closed ends turn a small but rabid crowd from WAC-sized cheering section into a horde of bees with megaphones capable of reaching 127 decibels of hatenoise." -Spencer Hall
by ProbablyMonty on Aug 30, 2011 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Appreciate the kind words
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Aug 30, 2011 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Let's hope it catches on
Like our very own version of “Brodie bangs”
Don't Panic.
by 4.0 Point Stance on Aug 30, 2011 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions
RALLY SOUL PATCH!
"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" -Patrick Peterson
"I don’t want to say that I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson…..but I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson." -Les Miles
"Oh Shit" -The SEC
LSU expectations for Lee
Throughout the offseason, we were hoping that the “SEC Senior QB” magic would happen this year at LSU. Every discussion of the LSU offense was predicated on the idea that if JJ matured at the normal progress for senior QBs, LSU would have a respectable offense and a real chance to play for all the marbles.
The only thing that has changed is the name of the QB. If Lee has improved like we’ve seen senior QBs in the past, LSU will have a respectable offense and a real chance to play for all the marbles.
Remember, AMAB, Ar-Kansas & Auburn all are starting new QBs this year. Of the new starters in the SECW, Lee has the most experience and success. I believe he can take us to the promised land, and if he doesn’t, I’ll probably enjoy the ride to wherever we go.
GEAUX TIGERS
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| West | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
1 LSU Tigers  |
19 | 11 | 42 | 14 |
|
16 | 14 | 39 | 17 |
| 7 Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
16 | 14 | 34 | 21 |
|
14 | 16 | 34 | 22 |
| 10 Auburn Tigers |
13 | 17 | 30 | 26 |
| |
9 | 21 | 21 | 34 |
| East | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
| 2 South Carolina Gamecocks |
18 | 11 | 39 | 15 |
| 4 Kentucky Wildcats |
18 | 12 | 41 | 15 |
| 3 Florida Gators |
18 | 12 | 40 | 16 |
| 5 Vanderbilt Commodores |
16 | 14 | 29 | 25 |
|
14 | 15 | 31 | 24 |
|
8 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
