Pop Quiz Hotshots...
by Billy Gomila on Feb 6, 2012 12:00 PM CST
in Football
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PrintYou're trailing 17-15 in the final two minutes of the Super Bowl, but you've got the ball inside the 10-yard line, with one time-out left. Your opponent has a hall-of-fame quarterback with a resume built on last-second heroics, and two timeouts. A field goal wins the ball game, but everybody knows you don't want to give the other team too much time...
Obviously we all saw this play out last night. The Giants ran the football enough to eat some time and make the Patriots use one of their timeouts, and eventually the New England defense split wide open to let Ahmad Bradshaw (despite his best efforts) toppled into the endzone with about a minute left. Obviously, the Giant defense made their stand, but Bradshaw was obviously trying to stop himself at the goal line -- and has since noted that his teammates were all yelling at him to hold up short of the endzone, although Tom Coughlin said he never gave any order like that (but thought about it). Had the Giants played for the field goal, it would have been the equivalent of an extra point and possibly left the Pats with 20 seconds left and no timeouts, but only in need of a field goal themselves to win. By getting the touchdown, New England was forced to go for the endzone to win, but obviously had more time, plus one more chance to stop the clock.
Now, there are a two sides here strategically, and I see both of them. On the one hand, any number of things can go wrong playing for a field goal, even a short one. But the same can also be said of giving Tom Brady 60 seconds and a timeout, when you can easily stall for time. Was letting Bradshaw score the right call for New England? I haven't seen anything confirming whether the Patriots let him in deliberately, but it certainly seemed that way.
So what do you do? Discuss in the comments.
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I'll say this
The percentages, in the specific case of last night, say you take a knee on the one, kick the field goal and give New England the ball with 20 seconds left and no time outs.
But its one thing to play for a <20-yarder. Playing for a >35-yarder? Stupidity.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
For me, it's situational
namely, what’s the m.o. of the team you’re facing, and in particular, the guy you’re facing. i.e…..Tom Brady.
Probably in MOST cases, I’d say run off as much time as you can and let your FG kicker make the chip shot. But Tom Brady and the Patriot offense is a different animal. I’ve seen those guys shred defenses like they’re not even there, in literally seconds. If there is one team I would NOT trust my defense to keep out of FG range, even with only ~20 seconds, it’s the Pats.
I could really see Brady getting the Pats down to FG range. But we all know red zone D is a different game than regular D. It’s much harder for Brady to have to punch it in the endzone (plus go the extra distance with likely at least one more play in the mix). Bottom line……against those guys, imho, the Giants did the right thing, even if inadvertently. Score the TD and force the Pats to get it in the endzone. I’ve just seen too much of Brady bombing 30 and 40 passes to the edge out of bounds to stop the clock. Also, imo, if the Pats let the Giants score, they messed up. Not how I’d have wanted it, for the exact same reasons.
It is incredibly situational.
You gotta know your team and you gotta have a real good feel for how the game’s going — you may really like your defense, but sometimes it’s having an off day, or you know it’s really tired, etc…
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Feb 6, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions
To put it in LSU terms...
… I score the TD and let my defense win the game. The defense is my best unit, and I put my faith in them. If I’m Arkansas, I try and keep my defense off the field and run the clock for a field goal.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur
I know the talent of cfb kickers is not comparable to those in the NFL
but this past bowl season put out of my mind any reason to ever play for the FG with Georgia and Stanford serving as stark examples.
Very much agree.
With Stanford, at least it was a 25-yarder, and the kicker to that point had been pretty solid. Richt…I know Blair Walsh has had a good career but he’s been shaky as hell this year. I dunno what he was thinking.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
Didn't the Ravens kicker
Miss like a 30 yd FG vs the Pats that would have sent it to OT? Can’t trust kickers at any level of competition.
by WhoDatSaintsLSU on Feb 6, 2012 8:05 PM CST up reply actions
Something else to consider
specific to last nights game. I think Bradshaw scored on 2nd down and NE had 1 TO left. If he would’ve downed it at the 1 with about ~50 seconds left, NE probably would’ve taken their TO stopping the clock before 3rd down. At that point, there’s probably a good chance NYG go for the FG and have 2 downs to try it in case the snap/hold is bad. They probably make the chip shot and kickoff leaving NE ~50 seconds to drive the field. Almost the same exact situation, except NE wouldn’t have a TO, no?
I am pretty sure
If you snap the kick for a FG on third down and actually KICK IT… and it misses, you don’t get another chance on fourth down… no?
That's true...
amiznit was referring to the fact that if there was a bad snap the FG holder could down the ball and try again.
You can’t try again after you kick and miss.
Alabama fans, ask yourself this question: Is this who you want representing your University and your fanbase?
"Been saying it for six f**king years now...That g**damn hurricane just wasn’t big enough." - Outsidethesidelines, Manager, RollBamaRoll.com
http://www.rollbamaroll.com/2011/12/3/2607240/sec-championship-game-open-thread#
outsidethesidelines@gmail.com
Completely different situation, IMO, from the Stanford/OSU game
David Shaw chose to play for a 35 yard kick with a freshman kicker. The Giants were looking at a 20 yard field goal with an NFL veteran.
For reference sake, a 18-20 yarder has about a 99% chance of going in. A 35 yarder has about an 85% chance. That’s a significant delta. (And these are NFL stats; college rates are presumably worse meaning a 35 yarder is an 80% proposition.)
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/11/just-for-kicks.html
Don't Panic.
by 4.0 Point Stance on Feb 6, 2012 2:42 PM CST reply actions
I thought it was closer than that
But the other side to the Stanford situation was that you had Andrew Luck and more than enough time to either get closer or at least take ONE shot at the endzone.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
go for the win
never leave a fight to the judges and never leave a game to the kicker
If a kicker misses a PAT with 20 seconds left
Or if Tom Brady goes down field with a minute left, you’re beat either way.
But if you’re gonna play the percentages, the short field goal is way more likely.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
As a Patriot, you let them score, as aGiant, you take a knee @ the 1
Go for the TD on 3rd down, kick a FG if you don’t make it on 4th. Or to put some math to it, ~0:20 seconds to ~44 yards ( ~54 yd FG ) / 80 yards ( for a TD ) or ~60 seconds to go 80 yards. Its 2.2 yards per second, 4 yps, or 1.3 yps. In other words, as a Giant, your best option is to not score with 1 minute left, as that is the easiest distance to cover in the time remaining.
I think the more interesting question is what the defense should do
I have often thought a team should let a TD in (as the Patriots appeared to do) to get the ball back with time, but I’ve never seen a case that blatant.
The Packers did it in whichever Super Bowl they lost to the Broncos
31 maybe?
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
Thanks.
I’ve thought about it a lot late in college games. Honestly, I watch about 3 NFL games a year.
My choice is none of the above.
I think NY scored on 2nd down.
I’d have kneeled on the 1 on 2nd, to make NE take their last time out. Then tried to score on 3rd down (running play) to burn clock. Then I kick the FG on 4th.
I definitely don’t kick on 3rd down after kneeling on the one on 2nd down. That gives Tom Brady too much time only needing a FG to win it. I think that would be the exact wrong strategy. You’d be trading the chances of botching a FG snap vs giving Brady ample time to drive down field.
I think NE had the right strategy. You had to let them score. Because if NY scores on 3rd down you’re screwed.
Alabama fans, ask yourself this question: Is this who you want representing your University and your fanbase?
"Been saying it for six f**king years now...That g**damn hurricane just wasn’t big enough." - Outsidethesidelines, Manager, RollBamaRoll.com
http://www.rollbamaroll.com/2011/12/3/2607240/sec-championship-game-open-thread#
outsidethesidelines@gmail.com
I’d have kneeled on the 1 on 2nd, to make NE take their last time out. Then tried to score on 3rd down (running play) to burn clock. Then I kick the FG on 4th.
Absolutely agree. This is what I told the Posette during the game. Take a knee, force the timeout, and then hammer it in on third down.
You don’t have to “play for a field goal” when it is more accurately described as “make them use their timeouts”.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur
3rd this.
Obviously you go for the touchdown if it’s offered, but definitely try to get at least one extra down, eat some clock, and get’em to burn that timeout before you punch it in. Or kick for 3 if they stop you. Can’t fault the guy for squatting, though.
On the flip side, that had to be one of the least graceful touchdowns in any NFL game I’ve ever seen, let alone superbowls.
It’s still 7 points, though.
Winston Churchill once said, "A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.". Must have had a run-in with a bama fan.
Mark Twain once said, "A man's character may be learned from the adjectives which he habitually uses in conversation.". Well, shit. I'm screwed.
You're right
In my analysis above I didn’t take into account that it was 2nd down. I stand behind my thought process vs. the Patriots, but using all 4 downs like you said.
Didn’t realize the Giants scored on 2nd down……oops.
NFL is much different from college
The special teams in the NFL are pretty darn reliable. In college, I don’t hesitate. Score the touchdown. In the NFL, I use a down to make NE burn their last timeout. I use the next down to try to score the touchdown, and then kick the field goal. If that field goal attempt comes with 2 seconds on the clock, so be it.
In college, either the kicker, holder, or snapper has a brain fart entirely too often to pass up the touchdown.
Of course, this is coming from the one guy you know who didn’t watch any of the game, and in fact did not know who won until I heard the result on NPR this morning.
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
I agree that you go down at the one and then try to score a touchdown the next play, but no way do I intentionally play for a field goal. I know the statistics of a field goal that short make it almost a guaranteed make…but those statistics don’t take into consideration the game situation, pressure, etc. At that point it’s pretty much a toss up to whether the kicker is MENTALLY able to handle everything. I would ALWAYS try to score with my team who’s been out there hitting all game, rather than putting my season on someone coming in cold off the bench who knows everything is riding on his shoulders.
It's definitely all a balancing act
between the points and clock. And I think it can be easier to screw up than people think.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
Miles said it best
“7 points are more than 3”
all I ask is for the chance to prove that money can't buy happiness
Personally, I score
if you can’t trust your defense, then it’s personally not worth it. I’m a positive thinker when it comes to playcalling. Or not positive but maybe assertive. For me, you ALWAYS make the other guy make a play. If he does & beats you, fine. You tip your cap & try to get better. I’m never comfortable with playing with some of these quasi-sandbagging strategies.
"The 2011 Tigers, on the field at least, are boring. See target, swing war club, rinse the brains and skull fragments off and repeat." - Billy Gomila
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