Stat Breakdown - ULL vs SHSU

No word yet on if the Cajuns brought their "Pepper Camo" to The Box this weekend

Breaking down the match ups between ULL and SHSU.

#2 University of Louisiana at Lafayette vs. #3 Sam Houston St.

Starting Pitching

Projected Starters

ULL: LHP Ryan Wilson (3.35 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 78 IP, 0.267 OBA, 59K, 24 BB)

SHSU: LHP Cody Dickson (4.33 ERA, 1.198 WHIP, 89.1 IP, 0.186 OBA, 87K, 49 BB)

Not gonna lie, I'm conflicted. This is a hard match to call.

Ryan Wilson has some telling numbers. Wilson gave up 21 doubles and 10 homeruns on the season. The home runs are the most given up by a starting pitcher in this regional, and the doubles are the second most given up. He also has a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of 0.304, which means he will give up some hits and have to pitch out of jams. He does not give up free passes easily with a walk rate a 7%, and he has decent strike out percentage of 18%. ULL's defense has not been spectacular with him on the mound. His ERA is 3.35, but his runs allowed per game (R/G) is 4.385, more than a run difference. Wilson needs to limit extra base hits and have solid defense around him if the Cajuns want to win.

Cody Dickson differs from Wilson in a couple of ways. Dickson is more prone to give up a free pass with a walk rate of 13%, and hitting 12 batters shows me he is prone to control issues. Opponents are only batting 0.186 against Dickson, so free passes are probably the main cause of his elevated ERA. Dickson gives up few extra base hits. In 89.1 innings pitched, he gave up only 6 doubles, 1 triple and 4 homeruns. He has a BABIP of 0.244, which backs up his stout opponent batting average. He is a high strike out guy with a strike out rate of 23%, so he will probably be really aggressive against ULL. No team in the Southland Conference hits as well as ULL (Lamar was tops in the conference at 0.300), so this will be Dickson's biggest test of the season.

I think SHSU has a slight advantage in this match up. If Dickson can pitch to his potential and limit free bases, he can possibly mitigate the ULL lineup. I don't think he can completely stop them from scoring, but he can limit the potential damage. If he struggles, ULL will eat him alive.

Very Slight Advantage SHSU

Hitting

ULL Projected Lineup

Row Labels RC BA slg% ob% GPA K% BB%
Adams, Caleb 49 0.341 0.642 0.432 0.355 19% 12%
Butler, Dylan 30 0.307 0.6 0.325 0.296 27% 4%
Conrad, Jace 33 0.292 0.426 0.353 0.265 7% 6%
Girouard, Tyler 49 0.372 0.616 0.473 0.367 18% 14%
Harrison, Seth 52 0.34 0.568 0.42 0.331 21% 9%
Kjerstad, Dex 66 0.398 0.631 0.441 0.356 10% 6%
Leonards, Ryan 33 0.332 0.418 0.405 0.287 11% 8%
Strentz, Michael 48 0.319 0.571 0.43 0.336 20% 8%
Trahan, Blake 44 0.335 0.447 0.424 0.303 11% 12%

SHSU Projected Lineup

Row Labels RC BA slg% ob% GPA K% BB%
Plumlee, Jessie 34 0.313 0.405 0.429 0.294 11% 11%
Atwood, Colt 31 0.306 0.328 0.361 0.244 14% 6%
Azar, Anthony 41 0.309 0.49 0.38 0.294 11% 8%
Miller, Kevin 37 0.338 0.404 0.392 0.277 6% 4%
Burgess, Carter 33 0.318 0.395 0.358 0.26 9% 7%
Plucheck, Luke 40 0.297 0.505 0.366 0.291 25% 7%
Powell, Wyatt 1 0.167 0.167 0.444 0.242 11% 22%
O'Hearn, Ryan 22 0.254 0.353 0.337 0.24 21% 11%
Farney, Ryan 19 0.291 0.355 0.346 0.244 15% 7%

ULL features a great lineup. Top to bottom, they are the strongest lineup in the regional. They have the highest team slugging percentage, batting average, and on base percentage in the regional. Every potential starter possesses a Runs Created (RC, a stat that encompasses all offensive stats then converts it into runs potentially contributed to the team) stat above 30, which is really outstanding. The players that stand out to me are Dex Kjerstad, Tyler Girouard, and Caleb Adams. All three have RC stats of 49+, have batting averages in the mid to high 0.300, on base percentages of 0.430+, and slugging percentages above 0.600. Kjerstad and Adams lead the team with 14 and 12 homeruns respectively. The only knock against ULL that I can really see is that they have three guys (not the ones mentioned above) with strike out rates above 20%. Simply put, this team hits for average and power, so don't be surprised if they put up a high number of hits and runs on the scoreboard.

SHSU's lineup is not nearly as explosive as ULL. They have a few guys that hit for a decent average, but nobody jumps out as an overwhelmingly intimidating presence at the plate. The lineup batting average is 0.305 and has an on base percentage in the mid to upper 0.300s. The two best players in the lineup offensively are Anthony Azar and Luke Plucheck. Azar is a pretty well rounded batter. Azar possesses a 41 RC stat and bats 0.309/0.380/0.490 with 21 doubles, 5 homeruns, and a team high 45 RBI on the year. He is SHSU's best bet at extra base hits and will need to deliver against Wilson. Plucheck is the other big bat in the lineup. He has an RC stat of 40 and bats 0.297/0.366/0.505 with 10 doubles, 4 triples, 8 homeruns, and 40 RBI. Plucheck is prone to striking out with a strike out rate of 25%, so he needs to put the ball in play if SHSU wants to keep up with ULL. Overall, SHSU is a decent offensive team, but it will be tough for them to match what ULL is capable of doing offensively.

Advantage ULL

Defense

Defense is pretty much a wash between these two teams. Both have a fielding percentage around 0.970, and nothing really stands out too much statistically. ULL committed 46 errors on the season and SHSU committed 52, so no real advantage there. Both teams play fairly clean defense with the occasional error. Since I haven't seen either team play, I really can't say anything about range.

Advantage Push

Bullpen

ULL turns to four guys out of the pen: Cord Cockrell, Matt Hicks, Matt Plitt, and Kody Smith. None of these guys has real electric stuff when you look at their numbers. All have ERA's above 4.50, WHIP's above 1.400, and BABIP above 0.320. Plitt is the only one that has a high walk rate (12%), so these guys must leave the ball where their opponents can hit it.

SHSU also has four guys they use out of the pen: Alan Scott, Jason Simms, Michael Burchett, and Logan Boyd. Their numbers vary from guy to guy. Simms and Scott appear to be the two best options coming out of the bullpen. Simms has a 2.97 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 0.219 OBA, and 0.296 BABIP in 42.1 innings pitched. Scott has a 0.67 ERA, 0.862 WHIP, 0.163 OBA, and 0.200 BABIP in 26.2 innings pitched. Burchett and Boyd's numbers are not as good. They have ERAs above 3.50, WHIPs above 1.300, and BABIPs above 0.300, so look for Simms and Scott to be the go to guys for SHSU.

Overall, SHSU has an advantage here because they seem to have two really good guys out of the pen that can limit runs and keep batters off the base paths.

Advantage SHSU

Overall, I still think this is ULL's game to lose. While the pitching is pretty good from SHSU, ULL's offense rates as one of the best in the country. It's not a matter of if ULL scores, it's a matter of how much they will score. I do think the game is closer than what people would expect. SHSU's pitching should keep the score reasonable.

ULL wins 7-4

Stats

ULL

Hitting and Defense
Player Team pa ab r h BA 2b 3b hr rbi tb slg% bb hbp so gdp ob% sf sh sb sba cs po a e fld% GPA RC BABIP K% BB%
Kjerstad, Dex ULL 265 236 58 94 0.398 13 3 12 43 149 0.631 16 5 26 3 0.441 4 4 10 15 5 110 5 3 0.975 0.356 66 0.406 10% 6%
Harrison, Seth ULL 246 206 58 70 0.340 16 2 9 45 117 0.568 23 7 52 0 0.42 2 8 10 16 6 86 5 5 0.948 0.331 52 0.415 21% 9%
Adams, Caleb ULL 206 176 47 60 0.341 9 1 14 51 113 0.642 25 4 40 3 0.432 1 0 3 6 3 29 2 1 0.969 0.355 49 0.374 19% 12%
Girouard, Tyler ULL 203 164 33 61 0.372 13 3 7 37 101 0.616 29 5 37 3 0.473 3 2 3 8 5 30 79 4 0.965 0.367 49 0.439 18% 14%
Strentz, Michael ULL 230 191 49 61 0.319 23 2 7 43 109 0.571 18 20 45 7 0.43 1 0 5 7 2 307 46 7 0.981 0.336 48 0.386 20% 8%
Trahan, Blake ULL 240 197 45 66 0.335 10 0 4 36 88 0.447 28 4 27 1 0.424 2 9 13 13 0 88 163 13 0.951 0.303 44 0.369 11% 12%
Conrad, Jace ULL 228 195 48 57 0.292 12 1 4 30 83 0.426 13 8 16 2 0.353 5 7 16 19 3 208 127 4 0.988 0.265 33 0.294 7% 6%
Leonards, Ryan ULL 218 184 31 61 0.332 13 0 1 29 77 0.418 17 7 23 2 0.405 2 8 7 12 5 70 51 5 0.96 0.287 33 0.370 11% 8%
Butler, Dylan ULL 160 150 23 46 0.307 14 3 8 42 90 0.6 6 0 43 0 0.325 4 0 0 0 0 49 3 4 0.929 0.296 30 0.369 27% 4%
Compton, Chase ULL 173 131 23 35 0.267 7 2 5 30 61 0.466 27 9 24 3 0.418 3 3 1 4 3 350 31 4 0.99 0.305 28 0.286 14% 16%
Carriere, Sam ULL 84 74 13 17 0.230 4 0 1 5 24 0.324 4 1 12 0 0.275 1 4 2 2 0 21 39 4 0.938 0.205 8 0.258 14% 5%

Pitching
Player Team ERA ip h app gs r er bb so 2b 3b hr ab b/avg wp hbp bk sfa sha BF WHIP OBA BABIP BB% K% H% HR% R/G BB/K
Mayer ULL 1.53 17.2 5 14 0 5 3 8 30 1 0 2 59 0.085 6 4 0 0 0 71 0.736 0.085 0.111 11% 42% 7% 3% 2.547 0.267
Harrison ULL 3.18 5.2 5 3 0 2 2 3 6 2 0 1 20 0.25 0 0 0 0 0 23 1.412 0.250 0.308 13% 26% 22% 4% 3.176 0.500
Robichaux ULL 3.20 101.1 87 15 15 42 36 21 80 15 3 6 363 0.24 5 21 1 2 6 413 1.066 0.240 0.290 5% 19% 21% 1% 3.730 0.263
Wilson ULL 3.35 78 78 21 11 38 29 24 59 21 1 10 292 0.267 4 9 0 1 6 332 1.308 0.267 0.304 7% 18% 23% 3% 4.385 0.407
Zaunbrecher ULL 4.15 13 13 8 0 6 6 5 14 0 2 1 48 0.271 2 2 0 1 0 56 1.385 0.271 0.353 9% 25% 23% 2% 4.154 0.357
Hicks ULL 4.65 40.2 50 28 0 22 21 11 24 11 2 2 166 0.301 0 3 1 0 2 182 1.500 0.301 0.343 6% 13% 27% 1% 4.869 0.458
Plitt ULL 4.70 30.2 31 13 3 19 16 17 21 6 3 1 113 0.274 5 5 0 2 3 140 1.565 0.274 0.323 12% 15% 22% 1% 5.576 0.810
Carter ULL 4.71 21 27 15 2 13 11 6 16 2 1 4 84 0.321 1 0 2 2 0 92 1.571 0.321 0.348 7% 17% 29% 4% 5.571 0.375
Cockrell ULL 5.02 37.2 50 15 1 24 21 5 21 12 1 4 156 0.321 0 4 1 0 1 166 1.460 0.321 0.351 3% 13% 30% 2% 5.735 0.238
Boutte ULL 5.27 85.1 102 15 15 57 50 26 58 24 3 7 345 0.296 4 11 2 3 4 389 1.500 0.296 0.336 7% 15% 26% 2% 6.012 0.448
Smith ULL 5.84 44.2 51 16 4 32 29 15 30 10 2 2 172 0.297 6 8 0 4 4 203 1.478 0.297 0.340 7% 15% 25% 1% 6.448 0.500
Frith ULL 6.00 12 13 9 0 9 8 2 5 3 3 1 49 0.265 3 2 0 0 0 53 1.250 0.265 0.279 4% 9% 25% 2% 6.750 0.400
Traffica ULL 7.26 31 40 9 8 32 25 11 21 6 2 2 128 0.313 6 5 1 2 3 149 1.645 0.313 0.355 7% 14% 27% 1% 9.290 0.524

SHSU

Hitting and Defense
Player Team pa ab r h BA 2b 3b hr rbi tb slg% bb hbp so gdp ob% sf sh sb sba cs po a e fld% GPA RC BABIP K% BB%
Azar, Anthony Sam Houston St. 234 204 36 63 0.309 20 1 5 45 100 0.49 19 7 25 3 0.38 4 0 4 4 0 363 48 1 0.998 0.294 41 0.326 11% 8%
Plucheck, Luke Sam Houston St. 233 202 39 60 0.297 10 4 8 40 102 0.505 17 6 59 0 0.366 2 6 11 15 4 91 3 1 0.989 0.291 40 0.380 25% 7%
Miller, Kevin Sam Houston St. 241 213 36 72 0.338 6 1 2 37 86 0.404 10 11 14 0 0.392 3 4 1 1 0 42 123 9 0.948 0.277 37 0.350 6% 4%
Plumlee, Jessie Sam Houston St. 209 163 32 51 0.313 9 0 2 26 66 0.405 22 14 24 1 0.429 4 6 5 5 0 255 79 9 0.974 0.294 34 0.348 11% 11%
Burgess, Carter Sam Houston St. 246 223 39 71 0.318 9 4 0 27 88 0.395 16 0 22 0 0.358 4 3 0 2 2 91 146 14 0.944 0.260 33 0.346 9% 7%
Atwood, Colt Sam Houston St. 261 229 39 70 0.306 5 0 0 25 75 0.328 15 5 36 0 0.361 0 12 9 10 1 120 7 5 0.962 0.244 31 0.363 14% 6%
Simerly, Hayden Sam Houston St. 171 155 23 41 0.265 7 1 9 36 77 0.497 10 4 52 1 0.322 2 0 1 3 2 2 0 2 0.5 0.269 25 0.333 30% 6%
O'Hearn, Ryan Sam Houston St. 197 173 18 44 0.254 6 4 1 24 61 0.353 22 0 41 0 0.337 1 1 0 1 1 249 13 7 0.974 0.240 22 0.326 21% 11%
Farney, Ryan Sam Houston St. 160 141 24 41 0.291 9 0 0 11 50 0.355 11 1 24 1 0.346 0 7 4 5 1 61 84 6 0.96 0.244 19 0.350 15% 7%
Powell, Wyatt Sam Houston St. 9 6 4 1 0.167 0 0 0 1 1 0.167 2 1 1 0 0.444 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0.242 1 0.200 11% 22%
Pierce, Shea Sam Houston St. 56 46 5 12 0.261 1 0 0 4 13 0.283 5 4 11 0 0.382 0 1 0 0 0 19 3 1 0.957 0.243 6 0.343 20% 9%

Pitching
Player Team ERA ip h app gs r er bb so 2b 3b hr ab b/avg wp hbp bk sfa sha BF WHIP OBA BABIP BB% K% H% HR% R/G
Rumsey, David Sam Houston St 0.00 1.2 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 1 0 8 0.600 0.000 0.000 13% 13% 0% 0% 0.000
Scott, Alan Sam Houston St 0.67 26.2 14 18 0 6 2 9 17 2 0 0 86 0.163 0 6 0 1 1 103 0.862 0.163 0.200 9% 17% 14% 0% 2.025
Simms, Jason Sam Houston St 2.98 42.1 34 25 0 15 14 18 41 2 0 0 155 0.219 8 3 0 1 4 181 1.228 0.219 0.296 10% 23% 19% 0% 3.189
Smith, Caleb Sam Houston St 3.23 86.1 60 17 15 38 31 56 68 7 0 1 304 0.197 5 8 1 5 7 380 1.344 0.197 0.246 15% 18% 16% 0% 3.961
Eppler, Tyler Sam Houston St 3.41 68.2 65 17 13 35 26 30 44 14 1 3 261 0.249 4 4 1 1 5 301 1.383 0.249 0.288 10% 15% 22% 1% 4.587
Godail, Andrew Sam Houston St 3.42 73.2 64 14 13 34 28 45 62 12 1 1 263 0.243 7 11 2 5 7 331 1.480 0.243 0.307 14% 19% 19% 0% 4.154
Burchett, Michael Sam Houston St 3.49 28.1 35 21 0 13 11 6 18 6 2 1 115 0.304 0 4 0 2 2 129 1.447 0.304 0.347 5% 14% 27% 1% 4.129
Boyd, Logan Sam Houston St 4.02 40.1 33 18 2 25 18 21 47 5 2 2 148 0.223 4 4 0 1 2 176 1.339 0.223 0.310 12% 27% 19% 1% 5.579
Dickson, Cody Sam Houston St 4.33 89.1 58 17 14 44 43 49 87 6 1 4 312 0.186 10 12 0 0 7 380 1.198 0.186 0.244 13% 23% 15% 1% 4.433
Manning, Miles Sam Houston St 4.50 6 9 4 0 4 3 5 2 1 0 1 28 0.321 1 1 0 0 0 34 2.333 0.321 0.320 15% 6% 26% 3% 6.000
Barosh, Derek Sam Houston St 5.79 14 16 9 0 10 9 5 11 2 0 1 56 0.286 0 1 0 2 0 64 1.500 0.286 0.326 8% 17% 25% 2% 6.429
Masters, Dirk Sam Houston St 6.00 6 4 4 0 4 4 6 2 0 0 0 21 0.19 1 0 0 0 0 27 1.667 0.190 0.211 22% 7% 15% 0% 6.000
Cortina, Juan Sam Houston St 6.92 13 13 13 0 11 10 8 12 1 1 0 48 0.271 2 1 0 2 1 60 1.615 0.271 0.342 13% 20% 22% 0% 7.615
Moore, Ford Sam Houston St 13.50 0.2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 0.5 0 2 0 1 0 6 3.000 0.500 0.500 17% 17% 17% 0% 13.500
Church, Jordan Sam Houston St 13.50 2.2 4 4 0 4 4 4 4 1 0 0 10 0.4 0 2 0 0 0 16 3.000 0.400 0.667 25% 25% 25% 0% 13.500
Latin, Otis Sam Houston St 54.00 0.1 1 1 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 3 6.000 0.500 0.500 33% 0% 33% 0% 54.000
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