Stat Breakdown: OU vs. LSU

USA TODAY Sports

Comparing the LSU and OU teams in starting pitching, offense, and the bullpen

Starting Pitching - Projected Match-Ups

Game 1

Player Name IP AB H OBA R ER ERA 2B 3B HR BABIP K BB HBP OBP% WHIP K/BB R/G K% BB% H % Win Loss
Gray, Jonathan 119.0 415 78 0.188 25 21 1.59 14 1 1 0.277 138 22 9 0.243 0.840 6.3 1.89 30% 7% 17% 10 2
Nola 109.0 390 76 0.195 28 22 1.82 8 1 4 0.262 111 17 9 0.245 0.853 6.5 2.31 26% 6% 18% 11 0

Game 2

Player Name IP AB H OBA R ER ERA 2B 3B HR BABIP K BB HBP OBP% WHIP K/BB R/G K% BB% H % Win Loss
Overton, Dillon 86.7 332 84 0.253 31 28 2.91 12 1 2 0.319 76 22 5 0.307 1.223 3.5 3.22 20% 7% 23% 9 2
Eades 96.0 364 98 0.269 33 30 2.81 9 3 3 0.332 77 30 8 0.337 1.333 2.6 3.09 19% 9% 24% 8 1

Game 3 (if necessary)

Player Name IP AB H OBA R ER ERA 2B 3B HR BABIP K BB HBP OBP% WHIP K/BB R/G K% BB% H % Win Loss
Fisher, Jake 53.3 203 57 0.281 21 15 2.53 13 0 5 0.351 50 14 7 0.348 1.331 3.6 3.54 22% 9% 25% 3 2
Glenn 82.0 299 70 0.234 28 23 2.52 10 0 1 0.263 37 16 13 0.301 1.049 2.3 3.07 11% 9% 21% 7 2

The game that has every LSU and OU baseball fan drooling is the game 1 match up of Aaron Nola versus Jonathan Gray. Gray beats Nola in most statistically categories, but the numbers are so close that it's really a push between the two statistically. Gray has great velocity with his fastball and often reaches triple digits. Gray also possesses a nasty slider that he can use to keep batters off balance. Nola's velocity is not as good as Gray's, but he has excellent command of his fastball, a great change up, and hard to hit breaking ball. Honestly, this match up will come down to who is having a better day on the mound and which team can scrape together some runs.

Statistically, Ryan Eades and Dillon Overton are pretty much the same person. Neither one has a real advantage in one particular category. Eades does have more walks and hit batters than Overton, so Overton might have slightly better control than Eades. Both guys allow batters to reach base. Their BABIPs are both above .300 and both have WHIPs of 1.20+. Again, it will come down to who is having the better day on the mound and which team can have the better day at the plate.

If there is a game 3, then LSU holds an advantage in starting pitching. Cody Glenn does a better job of keeping guys off the base paths than Jake Fisher, which is apparent in his lower BABIP and WHIP. Fisher is more of a strikeout guy with a 22% strikeout rate. Glenn is prone to control issues, so if LSU wants to win Game 3 it will need Glenn to be on his A game.

Offense

Oklahoma Projected Starting Lineup (not in order)

Player Name PA AB R H RBI BA 1B 2B 3B HR TB Slug % DP BB K HBP OBP
Hermelyn, Anthony 208 172 18 49 26 0.285 43 6 0 0 55 0.320 2 23 27 2 0.366
Oberste, Matt 285 237 53 89 60 0.376 56 18 4 11 148 0.624 2 25 32 15 0.457
Lorenzana, Hector 268 233 33 65 42 0.279 50 12 1 2 85 0.365 3 21 26 5 0.347
Carey, Garrett 239 203 32 57 23 0.281 41 11 2 3 81 0.399 1 9 26 15 0.351
Mayfield, Jack 298 262 55 68 35 0.260 46 14 1 7 105 0.401 4 12 29 14 0.323
Aikin, Craig 302 244 41 71 23 0.291 63 5 3 0 82 0.336 2 32 29 5 0.382
White, Max 286 249 53 78 32 0.313 61 12 2 3 103 0.414 1 17 36 10 0.375
Alspaugh, Taylor 38 33 6 6 1 0.182 5 1 0 0 7 0.212 1 5 5 0 0.289
Carpenter, Kolbey 215 196 18 52 24 0.265 38 10 2 2 72 0.367 1 9 40 1 0.297
Grand Total 2139 1829 309 535 266 0.293 403 89 15 28 738 0.403 17 153 250 67 0.363

Player Name PA GPA BABIP BB/K BB% K% RC
Hermelyn, Anthony 208 0.245 0.327 0.85 11% 13% 23
Oberste, Matt 285 0.362 0.392 0.78 9% 11% 72
Lorenzana, Hector 268 0.247 0.303 0.81 8% 10% 30
Carey, Garrett 239 0.258 0.303 0.35 4% 11% 31
Mayfield, Jack 298 0.246 0.266 0.41 4% 10% 34
Aikin, Craig 302 0.256 0.327 1.10 11% 10% 37
White, Max 286 0.272 0.350 0.47 6% 13% 43
Alspaugh, Taylor 38 0.183 0.214 1.00 13% 13% 2
Carpenter, Kolbey 215 0.225 0.318 0.23 4% 19% 22
Grand Total 2139 0.264 0.321 0.61 7% 12% 289

LSU Projected Starting Lineup (not in order)

Player Name PA AB R H RBI BA 1B 2B 3B HR TB Slug % DP BB HBP OBP K
Bregman 296 265 58 102 51 0.385 72 17 7 6 151 0.570 8 23 3 0.432 21
Katz 276 230 52 87 68 0.378 56 14 2 15 150 0.652 6 37 5 0.467 37
Rhymes 275 238 51 81 46 0.340 62 14 1 4 109 0.458 15 27 5 0.411 29
Laird 260 223 46 64 17 0.287 57 6 1 0 72 0.323 6 23 1 0.355 29
Ibarra 255 209 34 68 39 0.325 45 17 0 6 103 0.493 4 34 7 0.433 33
Ross 229 194 24 41 29 0.211 35 3 0 3 53 0.273 3 21 2 0.291 23
Jones 220 187 39 53 29 0.283 38 10 0 5 78 0.417 3 28 3 0.382 42
McMullen 196 160 24 53 30 0.331 33 17 1 2 78 0.488 0 21 7 0.413 23
Stevenson 133 109 21 20 13 0.183 19 0 0 1 23 0.211 1 11 5 0.288 21
Grand Total 2140 1815 349 569 322 0.313 417 98 12 42 817 0.450 46 225 38 0.395 258

Player Name PA GPA BABIP BB/K BB% K% RC
Bregman 296 0.337 0.395 1.10 8% 7% 67
Katz 276 0.373 0.396 1.00 13% 13% 70
Rhymes 275 0.299 0.367 0.93 10% 11% 43
Laird 260 0.240 0.328 0.79 9% 11% 26
Ibarra 255 0.318 0.360 1.03 13% 13% 47
Ross 229 0.199 0.222 0.91 9% 10% 17
Jones 220 0.276 0.338 0.67 13% 19% 33
McMullen 196 0.308 0.357 0.91 11% 12% 36
Stevenson 133 0.182 0.218 0.52 8% 16% 8
Grand Total 2140 0.290 0.341 0.87 11% 12% 336


Oklahoma has a good lineup, but it's not the most intimidating lineup on paper. Matt Oberste leads the way for Oklahoma offensively. He leads in almost every major category and has the highest RC stat in this super regional with 72. Max White is the next best hitter for the Sooners with an RC stat of 43, 0.313 batting average, and 0.375 on base percentage. White doesn't dominate the way Oberste does, but he gets on base at a good clip and hits for decent power. OU has everyone contributing offensively with only one potential bad spot in the lineup with Taylor Alspaugh, who has not played much this season but is a projected starter. They don't have high walk or strikeout rates, so they put the ball in play and force the defense to get them out. Overall, OU has a balanced lineup, but it is not anything LSU has not seen before.

LSU does have the stronger lineup in most categories, but OU has the best starting pitching staff that LSU has faced in a series. LSU needs the heart of the lineup in Bregman/Katz/Rhymes/Ibarra to create offense like they are capable of doing, and get support from the typically less productive parts of the lineup (Ross and Stevenson). If LSU can create chances against Gray and Overton, they may be able to get into OU's bullpen, which LSU could do some real damage to.

Bullpen

OU Bullpen

Player Name IP AB H OBA R ER ERA 2B 3B HR BABIP K BB HBP OBP% WHIP K/BB R/G K% BB% H %
Garza, Jr., Ralph 58.0 208 52 0.250 22 18 2.79 7 0 2 0.298 38 23 13 0.361 1.293 1.7 3.41 16% 15% 21%
Evans, Jacob 52.0 182 36 0.198 13 10 1.73 5 0 3 0.239 41 9 6 0.259 0.865 4.6 2.25 21% 8% 18%
Waltrip, Billy 36.7 143 39 0.273 30 21 5.15 8 1 1 0.392 45 30 7 0.422 1.882 1.5 7.36 25% 21% 22%
Carnes, Ethan 36.7 144 42 0.292 21 18 4.42 4 1 0 0.356 26 7 1 0.329 1.336 3.7 5.15 17% 5% 28%
Choplick, Adam 33.7 128 30 0.234 23 20 5.35 6 2 1 0.315 35 17 5 0.347 1.396 2.1 6.15 23% 15% 20%
Hayes, Kyle 28.7 110 28 0.255 16 10 3.14 6 0 0 0.318 22 12 4 0.349 1.395 1.8 5.02 17% 13% 22%
Ladd, Kindle 24.7 100 30 0.300 9 9 3.28 4 0 1 0.354 17 6 3 0.358 1.459 2.8 3.28 16% 8% 28%
Copping, Corey 15.7 57 16 0.281 10 10 5.74 4 0 1 0.341 12 4 4 0.369 1.277 3.0 5.74 18% 12% 25%
Tasin, Robert 13.7 55 14 0.255 7 5 3.29 4 0 0 0.318 11 8 2 0.369 1.610 1.4 4.61 17% 15% 22%
Grand Total 299.7 1127 287 0.255 151 121 3.63 48 4 9 0.319 247 116 45 0.348 1.345 2.1 4.54 19% 13% 22%

LSU Bullpen

Player Name IP AB H OBA R ER ERA 2B 3B HR BABIP K BB HBP OBP% WHIP K/BB R/G K% BB% H %
Bonvillain 45.7 158 30 0.190 16 14 2.76 5 0 0 0.238 34 23 11 0.330 1.161 1.5 3.15 17% 17% 15%
Cotton 42.0 146 24 0.164 8 6 1.29 3 1 2 0.220 45 3 0 0.180 0.643 15.0 1.71 30% 2% 16%
Bourgeois 32.0 113 26 0.230 10 8 2.25 3 0 1 0.313 32 12 5 0.331 1.188 2.7 2.81 24% 13% 19%
Rumbelow 30.3 107 23 0.215 12 12 3.56 3 1 1 0.293 32 15 1 0.315 1.253 2.1 3.56 26% 13% 19%
Newman 24.7 82 13 0.159 10 7 2.55 3 0 2 0.167 16 11 4 0.283 0.973 1.5 3.65 16% 15% 13%
LaMarche 24.7 86 19 0.221 10 10 3.65 3 0 0 0.302 24 12 5 0.346 1.257 2.0 3.65 23% 16% 18%
McCune 23.7 89 23 0.258 7 7 2.66 3 2 0 0.311 17 6 2 0.313 1.225 2.8 2.66 17% 8% 23%
Fury 18.3 64 14 0.219 6 6 2.95 3 0 1 0.271 16 4 3 0.292 0.982 4.0 2.95 22% 9% 19%
Berry 16.7 68 17 0.250 7 7 3.78 5 0 2 0.294 15 11 5 0.393 1.680 1.4 3.78 18% 19% 20%
Grand Total 258.0 913 189 0.207 86 77 2.69 31 4 9 0.264 231 97 36 0.305 1.109 2.4 3.00 22% 12% 18%


OU has some quality arms in its bullpen, namely Ralph Garza and Jacob Evans. Evans seems to be the best guy out of the pen. Evans keeps guys off the base paths and has a fairly high strike out rate of 21%. Garza looks to be contact pitcher who allows some base runners, but has not given up a whole lot of runs. Either one of these guys appears to be a solid back up if Gray or Overton get in trouble.

However, once you get past Garza and Evens, OU's bullpen is prone to giving up some runs. Every other pitcher in OU's pen has an ERA above 3.00, a WHIP of 1.28+, and a BABIP above 0.310. If LSU can get into OU's bullpen, LSU can potentially do some real damage as long as they put the ball in play and are patient at the plate.

LSU has the advantage in the bullpen. LSU has a lower ERA, batting average against, BABIP, and WHIP. LSU needs to pitch to their ability, and limit walks and runs to OU. As long as our bullpen pitches to its potential, it stands a good chance against OU's lineup. Also, Chris Cotton's numbers continue to get sicker and sicker. K/BB of 15.0, good grief that's awesome.

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