FanPost

The State of The Nation: 2014

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-"Diligence is the mother of good luck"

As citizens of Tiger Nation, we find ourselves with the good fortune to be standing at the dawn of a 10th season under the leadership of Coach Les Miles. After 95 wins in nine years, including two SEC titles and a National Championship, it is simply a matter of which game this fall that Miles will join Charles McClendon as only the second coach in LSU football history to lead the Tigers to 100 wins.

No BCS conference team in the entire country has won as many games as the LSU Tigers since Les Miles came to Baton Rouge in 2005. When one considers that fact, combined with the incoming freshman class that many believe is the most promising group Miles has ever assembled, there can be no denying that the state of Tiger Nation's football program is as strong as it has ever been.

Is Perception Reality??

As the Inaugural season of the College Football Playoff kicks off, fans all across the country are eager to see if their school will now be able to become legitimate contenders within the new landscape. Few teams experienced as much success throughout the BCS era as the LSU Tigers, so the excitement may come with a bit more skepticism in Baton Rouge compared to some other college towns. But if anything should have Tiger Nation looking forward to this new Great Experiment, it is the recruiting class that Les Miles built and secured in 2014.

In his decade in Baton Rouge, Miles has turned LSU into a destination school as a virtual factory for the NFL. LSU's 60 players drafted since 2005 is more than any other SEC school, and second nationally only to USC's 61. The talent level has continued to rise since Miles took over, as LSU set a school record in 2013 with nine players drafted, and tied that number again in 2014, by far the most of any school the past two years.

Unfortunately for Miles, the lazy media and many uninformed Tiger "fans" tend to use that stellar track record of producing NFL talent as a back handed compliment to portray him as a coach that wins simply by recruiting the best players, but often times holding the program back as a coach on game day. That same ill-informed, and likely ill-intentioned, group of hacks and hatchet men would likely be left dumbfounded by the fact that prior to 2014, LSU had finished in the top 5 of the national recruiting rankings only TWICE in the first eight years of Miles' tenure according to 24/7 Sports Composite Team Rankings.

Four of those eight years, LSU didn't even finish in the top 10. And yet, Miles continues to win games and produce NFL ready football players at a rate that is second to none.

Therefore, it bodes extremely well for Miles, and indeed all of Tiger Nation, that his 2014 class became the highest graded recruiting class in LSU history. While LSU's class was ranked 2nd overall, the group graded out at 298 points, higher even than the 2009 class which finished ranked #1, but had a grade of 291 points.

It must be mentioned, of course, that LSU's historic class finished second to none other than Nick Saban and Alabama. The Crimson Tide has reeled in the #1 class 4 straight years, and hasn't finished outside of the top 5 since Saban's first year in 2007. So if anyone is winning based on talent alone, Saban would be the more likely of the two, although I am certainly not suggesting that. Just pointing out the fallacy of the argument when applied to Coach Miles.

Of course, recruiting rankings are not an exact science. No one denies that Miles is certainly a fine recruiter, and that LSU has loads of talent, no matter how these opinion polls rank them. They are obviously subjective, and oftentimes outright biased. But those surprisingly average numbers of Miles' recruiting classes should at the very least do away with the foolishly foolhardy idea that LSU is simply so much more talented than every other team they play that any close win over a seemingly "lesser" team must be some sort of catastrophe. Not to mention every loss being another shovel full of dirt on Miles' purple and gold coffin. College football, especially in the SEC, is simply too loaded with talent at almost every major school for any victory to be viewed as a certainty.

So perhaps it is a bit curious as to why Miles continues to be viewed nationally as a lucky buffoon dependent on talent alone to achieve victory, while Saban is seen as college football's version of Gulliver in Lilliput, a giant among men. Saban is seemingly universally recognized as the best coach in college football, and given the clear talent advantage that Alabama has built up under his guidance, perhaps it isn't hard to see why. But if Saban is the best, it is certainly worth considering how Les Miles measures up, seeing as how the two compete against each other every season, both on field and off, and are locked in perpetuity as predecessor and successor at LSU.

Many forget that since Saban's return to college football in 2007 he and Miles have each won two SEC titles. That number likely strikes many as surprisingly low for Saban, and surprisingly high for Miles. This is all about the perception of the two men. Saban has three National Championships to Miles' one, but had the perception not been so skewed in 2011, the media would not have been able to pull off orchestrating the unprecedented Rematch, and they would likely each have two of those as well.

As Saban's Crimson clad locomotive ran off the rails on the way to a possible three peat in the last two games of the 2013 season with shockingly mortal whimper, the distance between the LSU and Alabama programs seemed to shrink significantly. When the Tide receded, and the media frenzy moved on to new flavors of the week, one could compare what each program actually achieved during the most recent four year graduation cycle, and wonder what all the fuss was about.

In the last four seasons, Alabama has a record of 46-7 with one SEC title, while LSU is 44-9, also with one SEC title. When strength of schedule is factored in, one could argue that Miles' record against tougher competition may be even more impressive than Saban's run against a favorable bridge schedule arranged by the SEC Director of Scheduling, who happens to be an Alabama alum.

In the regular season, the Tigers and The Tide went 2-2 against each other, with three of those games decided by less than four points. It has been Saban's unprecedented second bite at Miles' apple in The Rematch that has skewed the overall tone of the series in the eyes of most casual college football fans.

While Saban has been reeling off top 5 and #1 recruiting classes on a yearly basis, Miles took his only #1 class from 2009 and built it into the backbone of the historic 2011 team. Under his guidance, those young prospects went on to earn the first undefeated SEC Championship for the LSU Tigers since 1958, going 13-0 against perhaps the most difficult schedule in college football history, with only one game being decided by less than 13 points.

So it is easy to see why this potentially game changing class of 2014 has many in Tiger Nation feeling like the best is yet to come under Coach Les Miles.

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Reality Check

While the case for LSU's certain status among the elite of college football should be clear to any observer without ulterior motive, one should not necessarily expect or demand that LSU, or any program, will be in the College Football Playoff every year. Unfortunately, 2014 looks to be one of those seasons where LSU finds itself on the outside looking in. This is directly because of the incoming freshman class that has the future of Tiger football looking so bright.

There are simply too many young and inexperienced players at key positions for Miles to have this group of Tigers ready to navigate the gauntlet of college football's most competitive division, especially with a challenging schedule early on.

Tonight's game against the Wisconsin Badgers has the markings of a possible disappointment for Tiger Nation. LSU's run defense left much to be desired last year, and the weakness of the interior of the defense has not gotten better with the departures of Anthony Johnson and Ego Ferguson to the NFL after admirably playing a grueling percentage of snaps throughout the year due to lack of depth behind them. Deficiencies at middle linebacker and lack any pass rush to speak of exacerbated the problems that kept the tackles from playing up to the standard set by past greats at the position at LSU.

Wisconsin, the #8 rushing team in the country in 2013, will migrate south to Houston on the shoulders of Melvin Gordon, one of the best running backs in all of college football, who rushed for over 1,600 yards last season, and a massive offensive line in the mold of the groups that have made Wisconsin one of the most consistently dominant rushing units over the past several seasons. While their passing game doesn't strike fear into the hearts of many opponents, they likely won't need to throw very much. Gordon and sophomore Corey Clement will exploit the middle of the still rebuilding LSU defense, and find success early and often.

Pressure will be on LSU's highly touted offensive line to keep up by plowing the way for an offense led by Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard as two of the only skill players with significant experience. They are surrounded by youngsters with loads of talent, but virtually no experience. On such a big stage against such a quality opponent, it will be a difficult challenge for them to be able to help swing this Week 1 slugfest in LSU's favor.

Several other teams on LSU's schedule will present the same challenges in stopping the run as Wisconsin, notably the defending SEC Champion Auburn Tigers, the Alabama Crimson Tide, and the under the radar Arkansas Razorbacks. An early season showdown against perhaps the SEC's best quarterback in Dak Prescott for Mississippi State, a revenge game against the up and coming Ole Miss Rebels, and tough road clashes with Florida and Texas A&M, and a rare four loss season under Les Miles is an extremely realistic possibility.

If your lowly neighbor were to venture a prediction for the season, 9-3 would sound just about right. The early road test against Auburn's potent ground attack likely seems too much to overcome, and tonight's clash with Wisconsin just doesn't have the same feel as the usual opening week game in which LSU has generally played so well.

In a bit of a shock, the late road test against Arkansas will be the final loss and learning experience for incoming class. The Razorbacks are coached by the man that helped solidify the Wisconsin program in the upper tier of college football, and will be played the week after what will be a monumental and much needed win over Nick Saban's Crimson Tide in front of the largest crowd in LSU football history in the newly renovated and expanded Tiger Stadium. The youngsters will suffer the all to familiar hangover against a seemingly "lesser" opponent, that very nearly pulled off an upset in Baton Rouge last season.

The short week will be a welcome relief in College Station against Texas A&M to end the season. The youngsters will finally put all of the lessons learned to use and bounce back to use that road upset as the building block for a magical run beginning in 2015.

The Next Generation

So fear not, citizens of Tiger Nation. Whatever bumps in the road LSU and the fabulous freshman class encounter in 2014, they will become the foundation upon which championship runs will built in 2015 and beyond. Miles' #1 class of 2009 went 9-4 in a tension filled freshman season, before making huge strides to 11-2 in 2010 and the all time great 13-0 SEC Championship run in 2011.

Expect similar, if not better results from this group.

Once again, as predicted here a year ago for the 2013 Tigers, LSU will thrive on offense in 2014. The defense, however, will continue to be the piece of the puzzle that is yet to reach their championship potential.

Much has been made of the quarterback battle between sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman blue chipper Brandon Harris. In this citizen's opinion, however, the debate will be proven to be much ado about nothing, perpetuated by that vocal minority that simply always seems to want a controversy at the position. Just as I assured you a year ago, there is no doubt that Cam Cameron will once again have both of these quarterbacks more than prepared to lead the Tigers. While they certainly won't have the same success that Zack Mettenberger was clearly prepared to achieve, they will both play smart football that will help more than hurt the team under Cameron's expert tutelage.

While the starter may not be the same in every game, and just because one is the starter this year does not guarantee he will remain in that role next year, Cameron will know how to maximize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of each player when called upon.

Losing Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr, will be a major blow and limit some of the things Cameron will be able to do. Malachi Dupre, ranked as the top receiver prospect in the country, was the more heralded player at receiver, but he will sit out the Wisconsin game with a nagging injury, and was a more unpolished product that was likely to make more of an impact next season anyway.

Keep an eye on incoming freshman Trey Quinn, one of the less heralded gems of this class. Quinn is an exceptional athlete boasting track star speed. His physical gifts combined with his polished route running and hand eye coordination helped him become the all time national leader in receiving yards by a high school player in all of the country. Ever. Let that sink in for a moment.

Quinn, more than any other player in recent memory, is reminiscent of the greatest receiver to ever wear the purple and gold, and perhaps the greatest in the history of college football, the great Josh Reed. I can assure you that is a comparison I would never make lightly. Keep an eye out for #8.

There are other future stars in this class on the defensive side of the ball as well. Jamal Adams is a safety prospect with unlimited potential, as is Clifton Garrett at middle linebacker. Ed Paris, Davon Godchaux, Deondre Clark, John Battle, and Trevonte Valentine, if he is ever cleared by the suspect clearinghouse, will all be household names before their careers in Baton Rouge come to an end.

The offensive line also added future NFL players in Garrett Brumfield, Will Clapp, and Jevonte Domond. Their opportunities, though, will be limited this year with one of the best offensive lines in the country returning four starters. Receivers DJ Chark, Tony Upchurch, and star tight end Jacory Washington will also make their mark when all is said and done.

The Birth of a Nation

In any other year, running back Darrel Williams may have been the crown jewel of the entire recruiting class. Williams is extremely powerful and fast, and will see immediate playing time starting tonight against Wisconsin. He will be a player college football fans, and perhaps NFL fans as well, remember for a long time.

But this is not any other year. This is the year of Leonard Fournette. This is the year, and the time, of Buga Nation.

The #1 overall prospect in the entire country at any position, Fournette is a young man with the size, speed, power, and most exceptionally, the work ethic, character, and attitude to leave a legacy that will change the way LSU, and perhaps even Les Miles, will be viewed around the country.

Much has already been written about the player who will wear the #7 jersey for the first time in two seasons after Tyrann Mathieu wreaked havoc on his way to the Heisman ceremony in 2011. So I will not belabor the point with comparisons to other players or facts about the accomplishments he has already achieved. I will keep it uncharacteristically short and to the point:

Watch #7. And enjoy.

-"The things we build, end up building us."

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