One of the primary tenets of football stat analytics is that of turnover luck. A team has very little control on whether a fumbled football is recovered. Additionally, a team's interception rate is highly volatile, indicating it is not a skill either. Turning pass break ups into interceptions is primarily luck, not skill.
Now, people tend to get hung up on the word "luck," and I agree it is a loaded term. I'm only using it for lack of a better term, but the idea is the same: a team's fumble recovery and interception rates are unpredictable each season, and bear little resemblance to the previous season. I don't want to relitigate this issue, but instead find out that, if true, what does this mean going forward. How much of a team's success last year was due to luck, and therefore more likely to regress?
The first thing we need to do is find the average recovery and interception rates. Last season, the average team fumbled the ball 20.21 times and defenses recovered the ball 7.57 times. That's a 37.46% fumble recovery rate. An average SEC team in 2015 lost 37.46% of its fumbles.*
*This is actually an outlier. The average in 2014 was 45.86%, and 50.78% in 2013. I don't know why it's trending down, but I'm not using absolute figures, I'm using the 2015 environment.
Interception rate is a lot more steady. Last year, defenses intercepted 19.14% of the passes they defended. The average team defended 63.07 passes and had 12.07 picks. The 2014 rate was 21.44%, so we're looking at a fairly constant twenty percent rate. Still, we'll use the 2015 average rate of 19.44%.
We can now look at which teams were the most turnover lucky with one caveat. There's nowhere I can find that tracks pass defended for offenses, only for defense. So we are missing how lucky quarterbacks are, and how often their passes defended turn into interceptions.
First, a quick look at each team's turnover rates:
Int |
PD |
INT/PD |
Fum |
Fum Rec |
Recovery % |
|
Alabama |
19 |
99 |
19.19% |
25 |
8 |
32.00% |
Arkansas |
11 |
54 |
20.37% |
14 |
7 |
50.00% |
Auburn |
14 |
67 |
20.90% |
20 |
5 |
25.00% |
Florida |
14 |
68 |
20.59% |
26 |
11 |
42.31% |
Georgia |
12 |
45 |
26.67% |
22 |
10 |
45.45% |
Kentucky |
11 |
59 |
18.64% |
19 |
9 |
47.37% |
LSU |
10 |
57 |
17.54% |
20 |
7 |
35.00% |
Mississippi |
15 |
88 |
17.05% |
24 |
8 |
33.33% |
Mississippi State |
13 |
68 |
19.12% |
13 |
1 |
7.69% |
Missouri |
9 |
53 |
16.98% |
18 |
7 |
38.89% |
South Carolina |
12 |
42 |
28.57% |
20 |
8 |
40.00% |
Tennessee |
12 |
65 |
18.46% |
16 |
7 |
43.75% |
Texas A&M |
11 |
58 |
18.97% |
23 |
7 |
30.43% |
Vanderbilt |
6 |
60 |
10.00% |
23 |
11 |
47.83% |
Most teams hover towards the SEC average in interception rate. Only three teams had an INT/PD rate lower than 18%, and only Mizzou dropped below 17% which would be wiped out by rounding. LSU is one of the unluckiest teams when it comes to interceptions, which should make you feel good going into next season, though it does run against the whole DBU thing.
Fumble recovery rates are far more spread out, though only one defense even recovered 50% of fumbles forced, Arkansas. Everyone else was below 50%, and Mississippi St. bottomed out with some miserable fumble luck of just 7.69% recovery rate.
Now, let's see their turnovers forced with average luck.
TO Forced |
Int |
PBU |
PD |
Avg Int |
Int Luck |
Fum |
Fum Rec |
Avg Rec |
Fum Luck |
Georgia |
12 |
33 |
45 |
8.61 |
3.39 |
22 |
10 |
8.24 |
1.76 |
South Carolina |
12 |
30 |
42 |
8.04 |
3.96 |
20 |
8 |
7.49 |
0.51 |
Arkansas |
11 |
43 |
54 |
10.34 |
0.66 |
14 |
7 |
5.24 |
1.76 |
Florida |
14 |
54 |
68 |
13.01 |
0.99 |
26 |
11 |
9.74 |
1.26 |
Kentucky |
11 |
48 |
59 |
11.29 |
-0.29 |
19 |
9 |
7.12 |
1.88 |
Tennessee |
12 |
53 |
65 |
12.44 |
-0.44 |
16 |
7 |
5.99 |
1.01 |
Missouri |
9 |
44 |
53 |
10.14 |
-1.14 |
18 |
7 |
6.74 |
0.26 |
Alabama |
19 |
80 |
99 |
18.95 |
0.05 |
25 |
8 |
9.36 |
-1.36 |
Auburn |
14 |
53 |
67 |
12.82 |
1.18 |
20 |
5 |
7.49 |
-2.49 |
LSU |
10 |
47 |
57 |
10.91 |
-0.91 |
20 |
7 |
7.49 |
-0.49 |
Texas A&M |
11 |
47 |
58 |
11.10 |
-0.10 |
23 |
7 |
8.61 |
-1.61 |
Mississippi |
15 |
73 |
88 |
16.84 |
-1.84 |
24 |
8 |
8.99 |
-0.99 |
Vanderbilt |
6 |
54 |
60 |
11.48 |
-5.48 |
23 |
11 |
8.61 |
2.39 |
Mississippi State |
13 |
55 |
68 |
13.01 |
-0.01 |
13 |
1 |
4.87 |
-3.87 |
Georgia was lucky as hell when it came to forcing turnovers, picking up over five turnovers what an SEC team with average luck would have managed. Auburn saw its great interception luck clash with its terrific fumble luck to lose over one turnover that "should" have forced. LSU had both negative fumble and interception luck.
However, what the defense giveth, the offense taketh away. Or the opposite, in LSU's case. Because for as lousy as LSU's luck was on defense, the tigers had great luck on offense. Now, we don't have the PD/INT figures for passing offenses, but we do have the fumble numbers.
TO Lost |
Fumbles |
Lost |
Lost % |
Avg Lost |
Fum Luck |
South Carolina |
18 |
3 |
16.67% |
6.72 |
3.72 |
Arkansas |
15 |
3 |
20.00% |
5.60 |
2.60 |
LSU |
16 |
4 |
25.00% |
5.97 |
1.97 |
Auburn |
19 |
5 |
26.32% |
7.09 |
2.09 |
Missouri |
18 |
5 |
27.78% |
6.72 |
1.72 |
Tennessee |
20 |
7 |
35.00% |
7.46 |
0.46 |
Mississippi |
25 |
9 |
36.00% |
9.33 |
0.33 |
Florida |
18 |
7 |
38.89% |
6.72 |
-0.28 |
Georgia |
24 |
10 |
41.67% |
8.95 |
-1.05 |
Kentucky |
13 |
6 |
46.15% |
4.85 |
-1.15 |
Vanderbilt |
20 |
9 |
45.00% |
7.46 |
-1.54 |
Texas A&M |
19 |
9 |
47.37% |
7.09 |
-1.91 |
Alabama |
12 |
7 |
58.33% |
4.48 |
-2.52 |
Mississippi State |
23 |
13 |
56.52% |
8.58 |
-4.42 |
Seriously, State. What's going on with your fumble recoveries? Run a drill or something. The Bulldogs boast the worst defense and the worst offense at recovering fumbles. Also, note Alabama hanging out down near the bottom of the SEC in fumble recoveries. They had the worst fumble recovery rate in the conference, but managed to minimize their bad luck by only fumbling 12 times.
The skill isn't in recoveries, it's in not fumbling in the first place.
OK, this is all well and good, but what does it mean? Well, here we have to take the next step and figure out what this bad luck has actually cost teams. According to research, a fumble recovery is worth 4.65 points and an interception is worth 4.35 points. This enables us to look at what really matters: points.
This is a simple matter of multiplying a team's luck factors by the value of the average turnover, and then dividing by games played to check in on the bottom line. We'll call this variance in points per game a team's Turnover Luck.
Turnovers |
G |
Int Gain |
Fum Gain |
Luck Gain |
Fum Lost |
Luck Lost |
Turnover Luck |
South Carolina |
12 |
17.23 |
2.37 |
1.63 |
17.28 |
1.44 |
3.07 |
Arkansas |
13 |
2.89 |
8.17 |
0.85 |
12.07 |
0.93 |
1.78 |
Georgia |
13 |
14.73 |
8.18 |
1.76 |
-4.86 |
-0.37 |
1.39 |
Florida |
14 |
4.29 |
5.87 |
0.73 |
-1.32 |
-0.09 |
0.63 |
Tennessee |
13 |
-1.92 |
4.68 |
0.21 |
2.15 |
0.17 |
0.38 |
Missouri |
12 |
-4.98 |
1.20 |
-0.31 |
7.98 |
0.66 |
0.35 |
Auburn |
13 |
5.12 |
-11.58 |
-0.50 |
9.71 |
0.75 |
0.25 |
LSU |
12 |
-3.96 |
-2.28 |
-0.52 |
9.16 |
0.76 |
0.24 |
Kentucky |
12 |
-1.27 |
8.76 |
0.62 |
-5.35 |
-0.45 |
0.18 |
Mississippi |
13 |
-8.02 |
-4.60 |
-0.97 |
1.52 |
0.12 |
-0.85 |
Alabama |
15 |
0.23 |
-6.34 |
-0.41 |
-11.73 |
-0.78 |
-1.19 |
Texas A&M |
13 |
-0.44 |
-7.51 |
-0.61 |
-8.89 |
-0.68 |
-1.29 |
Vanderbilt |
12 |
-23.85 |
11.09 |
-1.06 |
-7.15 |
-0.60 |
-1.66 |
Mississippi State |
13 |
-0.06 |
-17.99 |
-1.39 |
-20.55 |
-1.58 |
-2.97 |
Mississippi St's awful fumble luck cost them 17.99 points on the defensive side of the football and 20.55 on offense. That's 38.54 points that were there for the taking with just average turnover luck. Throw in near average interception luck, and State is in the clubhouse as the unluckiest team in 2015, losing nearly three points a game to bad luck. That's huge.
The big surprise here is that Alabama rates as one of the SEC's unluckiest teams. Their abysmal fumble luck on both sides of the football did not offset their good luck with interceptions, on defense anyway, and the tide left 1.19 PPG on the table. That's right, kids. The Tide could have been even more dominant.
LSU had near average luck, driven by their offensive recovery rate. LSU's lack of interceptions off of their number of PBU's only cost the team about four points on the season, so it's probably not a huge factor.
The depressing thing is that the luckiest team in 2015, by this metric, was South Carolina. For a team looking for any ray of sunshine for this upcoming season, they really don't need to be told that their phenomenal turnover luck is unsustainable and they will likely regress to the tune of three points a game this season if they go back to league average luck.
So, with absolutely no good or ill fortune regarding turnovers, we can expect the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer. Boy, am I glad I ran these numbers. Sleep tight, kids. By the way, there is no Easter Bunny and happiness is a myth.
This is the darkest timeline. Sleep tight.