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Scheduled Event

Appalachian St. Mountaineers
@ LSU Tigers

Final - 8.30.2008 1 2 3 4 Total
Appalachian St. Mountaineers 0 0 7 6 13
LSU Tigers 14 17 3 7 41

Around the SEC, Part 1

This week, because all the SEC teams played, and none of them played each other, the regular Around the SEC feature will come in 2 parts.  In Part 1, we will focus on the same games featured in Part 1 of Time to Bloviate.

Vandy 34
Miami (Ohio) 13

Nicely done, Vandy.  I didn't give you any credit to start this season, but so far you are exceeding expectations.  I genuinely believed this to be a 50-50 game, but Vandy dominated from the beginning.  Chris Nickson earned due consideration for the And The Valley Shook SEC Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week Award (ATVSSECOSPPOW).  I didn't watch this game, because I thought it would suck.  Instead, I watched...

South Carolina 34
NC State 0

...which really sucked. South Carolina's offense was putrid, and NC State's offense was worse.  South Carolina's offensive line appears to be repeating its performance from last year, which is not good news if you're a South Carolina fan.  Give credit where it's due to USC's defense, which utterly dominated, but they benefited from some unforced miscues, including 2 turnovers on bad snaps in the shotgun.  They also benefited from NC State's starting quarterback being hospitalized with an injury early in the game. In particular, starting QB Tommy Beecher struggled, throwing 4 interceptions before suffering an "injury" and giving way to Chris Smelley.  USC scored most of its points after NC State appeared to thoroughly give up.  I regret that I watched this game.

Georgia 45
Georgia Southern 21

I did not get a chance to watch this, but if you believe T. Kyle King of DawgSports, it was not as impressive of a win as the score would indicate:

The question is a stark and simple one, and it was stated plainly by Quinton McDawg: "So, was that the performance of a No. 1 ranked team?"

I have to state, in all candor, that it wasn’t. It was the performance of a top ten team, certainly. It was the performance of a team that is capable of finishing first in the land, undoubtedly. At this exact moment, early in the 2008 campaign, though, I cannot conscientiously claim that the Bulldog team that took the field in Sanford Stadium today would have beaten either the Buckeye team that took the field in Columbus or the Trojan team that took the field in Charlottesville.

Probably contributing to his ennui was the fact that starting defensive tackle Jeff Owens was seriously injured and appears to be out for a long time, if not the entire season.  This is a team that has now suffered its second serious injury to one of its best players, having previously lost starting left tackle Trinton Sturdivant for the season.  A Pyrrhic Victory indeed.

Florida 56
Hawaii 10

Ho hum, another blowout of an overmatched team.  Florida spread the ball around a lot, as eleven Gators were credited with at least one rushing yard, eight Gators made at least one reception, and three Gators attempted a pass.

With all that spreading of the ball, no one had a Tim Tebow-esque gaudy stat line.

Florida scored two defensive touchdowns against an offense that suddenly found itself lacking a big-time quarterback.  It probably didn't help that Hawaii was playing this game at 6:30 am Hawaii time.  You thought LSU's game started early?  

LSU 41
Appalachian State 13

While much has been said about this game on this blog already, I want to mention one more small point.  Chad Jones looked MUCH better returning punts during this game than he looked at any time last season.  He had 3 returns for an average of 13.3 yards per return, which almost matched his season high of last year.  He fielded eight punts and only bobbled one.  If that was a mere glitch, we should be better at returning punts this year.

Incidentally, Chad Jones and Patrick Peterson are all over the place on special teams.  Patrick Peterson covers the gunners on punt returns, and covers kicks and punts.  Chad Jones is the return man, and is a gunner on punt coverage and is on the kickoff cover team as well.  They make a great pair, I think.

La Tech 22
Mississippi State 14

MSU appeared to be cruising, ahead 14-3 in the second quarter, but they didn't score another point.  MSU fans' worst fears were realized as once again they had ineffective QB play from their starter, as Wesley Carroll completed less than 50% of his passes and threw 4 interceptions, including a disastrous interception on a drive that appeared to be heading for a go-ahead score, but instead went the other way give La Tech more points.

The winning points were scored on a 9 yard touchdown drive set up by a fumble on a punt return.

On what was otherwise a glorious night for the SEC, and not a bad week overall as 2 SEC teams beat ACC competition and another SEC team beat a favored mid-major, MSU went out and laid an egg.  

Last year, MSU started out slow, as LSU fans well remember, but figured out how to win games as the season progressed, as Bama and Auburn fans well remember.  Sylvester Croom had better hope they figure it out again, or he will be right back on the hot seat again.

 

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Under Center

Well, we’ve got a quarterback controversy.  It’s not bad yet, but neither candidate really separated himself from the other, and a perusal of the LSU message boards and blogs shows that fans are beginning to line up behind their preferred candidate. 

Which always sorts of irritates me.  If you go too far down that road, you end up almost cheering against the guy you don’t want so your guy gets the start.  We’re not at that place yet, but it’s on the horizon.  So I’m begging all LSU fans that even if you a preferred QB candidate, don’t get hung up on being right about him.  Neither one has established himself and it’s very much in the air. 

 OK, caveats aside, look at the numbers:

Lee 6/10, 116 yds, 2 TD/1 INT
Hatch 7/14, 77 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 7 rushes for 43 yds

Strictly by the numbers, it’s a dead heat.  Lee was slightly more accurate and threw for more yards.  Hatch didn’t turn the ball over and had the added dimension of rushing for 43 yards.  Both lines are fairly pedestrian, but not bad.

So what about the eyeball test?  Hatch looks more comfortable out there.  He probably needs to slide a bit more because if he runs like that during a killer defense, he might get killed.  Hatch underthrew the ball when he went deep, and the ball seemed like it took a minute to get to the sideline on swing passes.  Let’s just say arm strength is not one of his virtues.  Almost all of his completions were on short, underneath routes.  He looks like the dreaded “game manager”, but it also seems that this is as good as Hatch gets: a reliable guy who can create a bit with his legs but scares no one.

Lee, on the other hand, looks to have more ability. He throws a prettier ball and actually has the dimension of throwing beyond 10 yards, but he wasn’t exactly airing it out either.  However, he made some God awful decisions.  He locks on one receiver and he is not seeing the field.  He’s lucky to have thrown only one pick.  He also seemed confused before the snap on a lot of plays.  He looked as uncomfortable out there as a guy could.  Which to me means he can get better.

Right now, I think Hatch is the better of the two, but he won’t be for long.  Lee has more potential, but there is a point potential has to lead to production.  Keiland has more potential than our other running backs, but his production is well behind.  There’s a reason Scott is the guy.  Same thing with the QB’s.  Of course, we’re not there yet, but Auburn looms.  Someone’s got to step up. 

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LSU 41 - Appalachian State 13: Second Viewing

Boolmaqawioejpm

I watched the game again in the afternoon when there was no other SEC game on.  Like most people, when I watch the game live, I follow the ball.  When I watch the game on replay, I focus on other things.  In particular, when LSU had the ball, I focused on right tackle Joseph Barksdale, who was making his first start.

Barksdale had an OK game overall, but I was looking for details.  When LSU passed, Barksdale always took out his man.  The right defensive end never got a hand on LSU's quarterbacks.  He was excellent in pass blocking, and a big upgrade over last year's right tackle Carnell Stewart, who was at times awful in pass protection.

On running plays, however, Barksdale sometimes struggled.  In particular, he struggled when the play called for him to block on the second level.  He blocked someone on top of him pretty easily, and did a fine job of it, but he had a hard time getting away from the line of scrimmage and catching someone to hit him.  Sometimes, he looked a little lost out there when he was called upon to do that.  In particular, the option run to Keiland Williams on the goal line in the first half that ended up losing yards was blown up in part because Barksdale didn't get a good block.*

In a zone blocking scheme, the hardest part of a lineman's game is trying to figure out where to go and who to block when there isn't someone directly over him.  The lineman has to either help on one of his flanks or go to the next level and find someone to hit, but he better not block in the back.  There are lots of reads involved, and the process seems to take some practice.  This was Barksdale's first time getting a lot of plays against live competition other than in practice.  Hopefully he will improve that facet of his game as the season presses on.  

Either way, I do not believe Barksdale will be an improvement over Stewart in run blocking.  Stewart was a spectacular run blocker, and he rarely got credit for it.  Many of those great Hester power runs were run to the right side of the field behind Carnell Stewart.  Not to the left side behind Herman Johnson and Ciron Black.  Of course, Stewart had plenty of deficiencies, which have been well-chronicled, but we will lose something not having his run blocking out there.

Barksdale is already a very big upgrade over Stewart in the passing game.

When LSU did not have the ball, I tried to focus on the coverage and the secondary, which is understandably difficult because you can rarely see all the DBs on the screen.  Even worse, I usually could not identify the players who were in position, so I often couldn't tell who was being covered by a corner and who was being covered by a safety.  

To the extent I could tell who was covering whom, I report the following observations:

  • When 3 or more receivers were in the game (which was most plays), they really changed up who was covering the slot and who was covering the outside.  Sometimes the corner would cover the outside (which is the traditional way to align your secondary when there are multiple receivers on one side), and sometimes the corner would cover the inside and a safety would go to the outside receiver.  This is an innovation in defensive strategy designed to cross up spread offenses that are trying to isolate the team's best wide receiver on the inside against an overmatched safety.  Slide the safety outside sometimes and the mismatch is not nearly as predictable.
  • Jai Eugene played pretty well as the starting right corner.  His struggles last year in a backup role were often discussed, but his supposed offseason dedication to improving his play seems to have reaped some early dividends.  He looked comfortable and looked pretty good, at least at this level of competition.
  • The corners changed up their coverage frequently.  Sometimes they played soft, and sometimes they pressed.  Jai Eugene pressed more frequently than Hawkins did, to my observation.
  • I saw the following DBs get into the game:  Jai Eugene, Chris Hawkins, Curtis Taylor, Harry Coleman, Chad Jones, Danny McCray, Patrick Peterson, Ron Brooks, Phelon Jones.  I did not see Brandon Taylor, Stefon Francois, or Karnell Hatcher, but I can't swear they weren't out there.  Like I said, it was very hard to get jersey numbers off the TV on the wide angles that showed the DBs.
  • Peterson looked comfortable as a true freshman playing his first game, but perhaps I hyped him up a little too much.  Sure, he looked fine, but I think I forgot he's human rather than an alien.

*There were other reasons that play didn't work, and most of them involved Appalachian State simply not being fooled and playing it very well.  One Mountaineer came through the line and took out Quinn Johnson, the lead blocker.  Another Mountaineer threatened Hatch and forced an early pitch, and yet more Mountaineers swarmed to the ball.  Keiland is getting some criticism for his play in this game, and rightly so, but Tony Dorsett wouldn't have been able to get that play into the end zone.

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LSU 41 - Appalachian State 13: Initial Thoughts

After watching the game live on television, here are my thoughts:

1.  The QB Situation Did Not Make Me Feel Good.  After a nice start, Hatch slowed down and wasn't particularly effective for much of the game.  Lee had some of the best throws and some of the worst throws of the night, including one bad interception and another pass that should have also been intercepted.  Two TD passes to Brandon Lafell eased the pain.

2.  The Punting Situation Must Improve.  Dalfrey had one or two nice punts, but also a couple of terrible punts.  Jasper punted once and did fine.  If Dalfrey wants to keep the job, he has to show that it was just haven't-played-in-a-long-time jitters.

3.  Jordan Jefferson Did Not Get In the Game.  In a surprise, the coaches kept the true freshman on the bench.  One wonders if all the Jefferson talk was a smokescreen and whether they're actually planning to redshirt him.  Maybe they just wanted to keep their options open.  Maybe it was because the other QBs, who they know will have to carry the load, looked so shaky and needed more time.

4.  The Line Play Was Outstanding.  We expected this to be the big strength of the team, and it was.  Both lines greatly outplayed their counterparts on the other side of the ball.  Even guys who don't normally play that much, like Tremaine Johnson, played very well.

5.  Charles Scott Showed Why He Earned the Start.  16 carries for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns puts him on the short list for the And The Valley Shook Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week Award.  No other running back was nearly as effective.

6.  The Defense Played Very Well As a Whole.  Except for one or two coverage breakdowns, which must be corrected, the defense was outstanding all day.  The secondary played well despite its inexperience.  Freshmen Phelon Jones, Patrick Peterson, and Ron Brooks came in and did well.  The Mountaineers had no success when they tried to throw on Peterson.

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Appalachian State Game Thread

Considering the earliness of this game, we're just going to start the game thread at 2:00am.

 

Poll
Was moving the game up to 10:00am the right thing to do?
Yes. Better safe than sorry.
46 votes
No. It should have been left alone.
24 votes
The game should have been cancelled or moved to another day entirely.
2 votes

72 votes | Poll has closed

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LSU vs. Appalachian State Prediction Thread

Before you comment with your predictions, here's what the pundits are saying.

CFN, the best in the business

Why to watch: Appalachian State's stunner at Michigan to open the 2007 season was one thing, but beating the defending national champions in Death Valley would be another. ASU is a defending national champ itself having won the FCS/D-IAA title three years in a row, and it's expected to be the lead dog in the race to make it four in a row. Meanwhile, LSU isn't even considered the favorite to win the SEC with Georgia and Florida getting a bit more national love early on. Even so, considering this is a bit of a reloading season, the Tigers are still more than talented enough to be in the national title hunt throughout the season. But there are a few question marks, like at quarterback and when it comes to finding new leaders on defense. Nitpicking to be sure, but anything less than a dominant performance will send off panic sirens.

Why Appalachian State might win: The longer ASU can keep this close, and if it can come up with a few good drives early and crank out a few scores, thoughts of Michigan could start to creep in for both sides. If you're going to pull off an upset like this, it'll most likely come in the opener before there has been much of a chance to jell, and LSU is in need of some work to be fully operational. Armanti Edwards and the crew will be confident and won't wilt under the pressure of playing on a big stage; all the pressure is on LSU. The longer this is a game, the more it swings towards the Mountaineers.

Why LSU might win: Talent. Yeah, Michigan was the far more talented team than ASU last year, but the Tigers aren't going to take this game as lightly as it would've had the Wolverine upset not happened. LSU should be able to dominate on the lines and it has the speed and athleticism in the back seven to keep the Mountaineers from cranking out too many big plays with the ground game. Edwards and the passing game can be effective, but ASU has to run to keep things balanced. That will be a huge problem.

Who to watch: It was the big question throughout the off-season. Andrew Hatch or Jarrett Lee? Lee or Hatch, Hatch or Lee, or a combination? Hatch, a walk-on transfer from Harvard, appears to be the early choice, but that doesn't mean Lee, the more dangerous option, won't see plenty of playing time ... or vice versa. True freshman Jordan Jefferson is also in the hunt, but in a perfect world he doesn't see the field this year. LSU would like to make this a laugher early to give everyone some work, but in the end, the O line is so good that whoever is under center should be fine.

What will happen: ASU will come up with a few big moments early to make everyone nervous, and then the LSU defense will turn into the LSU defense again and end the drama with a dominant second quarter. However, the Tigers won't be sharp.

CFN Prediction: LSU 38 ... Appalachian State 17

Bruce Edwards, ESPN

LSU 38, Appalachian State 17
Armanti Edwards is a blast to watch, but this LSU defense is better up front than the Michigan group he lit up last year. Worse still for the Mountaineers is all the experience they lost from last year's team. Plus, LSU's home setting is a lot nastier than The Big House.

Stewart Mandel of CNNSI.com

If Mountaineers QB Armanti Edwards manages to carve up LSU's uber-athletic defense ... go ahead and invite him to New York. More realistically, the Tigers will render Edwards human.

Prediction: LSU 30, Appalachian State 13

Dennis Dodd (I loathe him, but we'll include it, link includes three other predictions from CBS Sportsline)

Appalachian State has been working out all offseason with an LSU T-shirt that reads "Not In Our House". LSU is on alert, but so are the Mountaineers. This will go how the Michigan game last year should have gone. App State will hang in for three quarters, then depth, or the lack of it, will get to them. Prediction: LSU 30, Appalachian State 21

Tiger Rag

LSU coaches and players have been listening to the Appalachian State upset of Michigan talk since the day after the national championship game. But it’s no big secret that LSU is much, much better than that Michigan team that got shellacked by the Mountaineers last season. Give Appalachian State its due: They are a very good team and have the hardware to prove it. But they will not win in Tiger Stadium. The Mountaineers gave LSU a heck of a game in 2005 as the Tigers won 24-0. But this time around, it likely won’t even be that close. LSU runs the ball with power all the way to a four-touchdown victory.

LSU 45, Appalachian State 14

 

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Gametime Changed, Kickoff at 10 a.m.

It's official, the LSU vs. Appalachian State game has been moved to 10 a.m. on Saturday due to Tropical Storm Gustav.

"Public safety was the overriding concern expressed by all parties when we met with the governor and his staff today," LSU director of athletics Joe Alleva said Friday. "Ten a.m. is obviously not the optimal time for a football game, but when one of the options was to not play the game at all, this is a matter of making the best of an unfortunate situation."

The determination of the whether the game will be televised or not has not been made. It certainly won't be on ESPN because they're not going to preempt College GameDay. My guess is it will still be carried, either on ESPN2 (which would bump another game) or, most likely, ESPNU or ESPN Classic.

As for the decision, I don't mean to be insensitive over hurricanes after Katrina, but, really? This is rediculous. I know preparations and evacuations are at an all time high and every possible precaution is being taken, but come on.

As the projected path shows, the storm isn't expected to make landfall until Tuesday morning. That's a full 2 1/2 days after the game would be over.  Is the six-hour headstart going to change things that much?

I echo Richard Pittman's post earlier this week, which talked about cancelling the game. If we're going to be moving/cancelling games based on hurricanes three or four days away, LSU, Miami, and a host of other schools are going to be changing at least one game a year.

I remember my freshman year at LSU, we had two days of school cancelled because a hurricane was coming straight for us(Georges, I think). It was supposed to hit Sunday night. After barely seeing a rain cloud on Monday, they decided, maybe we should have class on Tuesday. So we did. This feels the exact same way.

Right now, Gustav has a projected path that lands it anywhere from Florida to Texas. Apparently on Saturday night, it won't even be past the western tip of Cuba. There's almost no chance of rain on Saturday, only 30 percent on Sunday and 50 percent on Tuesday, the highest chance of the week.

And we're changing a game time for this?

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Why Would People Evacuate West Instead of North or East?

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Perhaps people can explain this to me.  The media is talking about evacuating New Orleans and heading to the West.  However, the projected storm track, above, seems to show a rather good chance that the hurricane will hit to the West of New Orleans, and perhaps as far West as Texas.  So why would they plan to take people from New Orleans and bring them West, into the  highly possible path of the hurricane?

It makes no sense to me.  Why not evacuate East along I-10 or North along I-59 or I-55?  Those seem like much better paths to safety, if indeed one is needed.

Anyway, the latest projections seem to indicate, at least to me, that Gustav is not a threat to this game but it could be a threat to the Troy game, especially if it slows down even more.

 

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More Freshmen Will Play This Year

Last year, 7 true freshmen played football for LSU, only 5 of whom were actually position players.  They were Chad Jones, Terrance Toliver, Drake Nevis, Joseph Barksdale, and Jarvis Jones.  Every other true freshman recruit from the 2007 class (a highly regarded class, by the way), redshirted.

This year, it appears more will get a chance to get on the field.  In addition to the expected (Patrick Peterson, who will see the field a lot), it appears Ryan Baker will be a backup linebacker and play special teams.  Jordan Jefferson will probably play quarterback a fair bit.  Deangelo Peterson and Brandon Taylor appear to have won jobs on special teams and/or wide receiver and cornerback respectively.  Lavar Edwards and Cordian Hagans have impressed at defensive line enough to possibly get in, either or both of them.  Karnell Hatcher may be a backup safety and/or play special teams.  Greg Shaw appears to be the primary backup to Ciron Black at left tackle.  Tyler Edwards will possibly be the 3rd tight end and/or the backup fullback.  Kellen Theriot will probably play special teams.  Even Tim Molton, who went on record as wanting to redshirt, and who reported to the team relatively late due to academic issues, may have impressed enough to earn some playing time.

For a signing class that wasn't particularly highly regarded (for LSU), that's a lot of immediate contributors.

While we have a lot of immediate contributors, few freshmen will be counted upon for heavy duty, and that's a good thing.  Here in Tuscaloosa, I hear a lot about some true freshmen who are going to play a lot, but when true freshmen are starters in the opening game, that usually bodes poorly.  People tend to discount what a big adjustment it is to go from high school to college football, even for the best players.  The opposing players are as good as or better than the best player the person went against in high school.  The schemes and plays are many times over more complicated than anything these guys were running just a year prior.  It's too much to expect of almost anyone to get it right off.

In our case, we are in position to ease young players into the lineup, and really only Patrick Peterson appears to be pushing the starters any time soon.  Everyone else will get a chance to grow in limited roles, such as special teams.  That is a big advantage to us, and it is a luxury that we have true freshmen who can fill those roles effectively.

Injuries to veterans could, of course, change the plans to ease players into the lineup slowly.

One of the key things to watch during the upcoming game, especially if the game gets to be something of a blowout, is who among the young players (freshmen and redshirt freshmen) see playing time.  Not all of the above will, but many of them will get their shot.

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Five Things I'm Looking for on Saturday

For whatever reason, this August has seemed so much longer than previous ones. Maybe it's just my anticipation of wanting to see if LSU can duplicate its success over the past few years. Maybe it's just that my fantasy baseball team is horrible so my lone sports activity of the summer has been a lost cause for so long. Either way, I'm excited to don my LSU jersey and watch some football. There's a number of things I'll be interested to see from Saturday.

1) Duh, the quarterbacks. Who's going to be the quarterback and how will the snaps be divied up. I think Andrew Hatch will start and Jarret Lee will play a lot. I don't plan on seeing Jordan Jefferson unless the game is wrapped up in the fourth quarter.

But I think at the very least we'll get a feel for what's going to happen next week against a solid Troy team. I hate the fact that even after Saturday we could be no closer to having a clear-cut starter than we are today. It reminds me of 1998 when Gerry DiNardo couldn't choose between Craig Nall, Josh Booty and Rohan Davey.

So, when they both play, hopefully one will clearly grab the bull by the horns.

2) The secondary. Obviously, the loss of three starters in your back four is troublesome, especially when you're throwing two new corners out there. Don't get me wrong, I think Jai Eugene, Patrick Peterson and Chad Jones have the talent to every bit as good as the Corey Websters and LaRon Landry's that have come through the past few years.

I'm interested to see how safe the defensive coordinators play in terms of not leaving their corners on islands. Will we be able to blitz from an array of positions, or will we have to drop back more to make up for lack of experience. As a side, will the front four be able to get consistent pressure without help from a blitz?

3) Ricky Jean-Francois and Charles Alexander. Both missed a majority of the 2007 season, but are arguably the best tackle tandem in the country. How much chaos can they create and how many lanes can they fill to keep Armanti Edwards in check.

4) The running backs. I think it's pretty safe to say that four different guys will get touches most of the season. Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, Charles Scott and Trindon Holliday are all too talented to be sitting. But how will Gary Crowton use them and who will be the go-to-guy when it's 3rd and 2.

I've long been a believer in Williams and think he's an incredible talent. I'd also love to see how we can get Holliday 10 touches a game, because you just know on one of them nobody will be able to catch him.

5) Appalachian State's spread offense. Obviously, the Mountaineers have the chops to take it to the big boys on offense. I'm looking to see how our defense responds and fills their responsibilities. This is a preview of what we'll see from Auburn and Florida.

Hopefully, LSU will be able to keep Edwards in check and, most importantly, not let a receiver break free for a big play. That's what doomed Michigan a year ago.

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LSU and/or The State should not cancel or move the game because of Gustav

I've been avoiding this topic for the last day or two because I didn't want to be premature in coming to any kind of conclusion.  After all, Gustav could very well miss Louisiana still, perhaps even by quite a ways.

According to this map, as of the time of this writing (about 8:00pm Wednesday night), Gustav is projected to make landfall somewhere between East Texas and the Florida panhandle sometime around Monday night.

I am as aware as most of the dangers of a hurricane.  My grandmother was in New Orleans when Katrina hit, and she did not evacuate until about 4 or 5 days after the cataclysm hit.  I was living on LSU campus when Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992.  I lived in Gonzales for countless storms.

I also know what a big undertaking an evacuation of New Orleans would be.  Regardless, I think unless something changes, this game should not be cancelled, even if it appears there will be a direct hit on Louisiana.  I believe this for several reasons:

 

  1. Baton Rouge is not a bad place to be if a hurricane is going to hit.  Yes, I know that a lot of people who would be attending the game would probably need to be evacuating wherever they are.  But, if they have to leave where they are, going to Baton Rouge is not a bad plan.  Taking an RV with you is also not such a bad thing.  Baton Rouge is rather far inland compared to New Orleans, and hurricanes lose a lot of strength before they hit the Red Stick.  For all but the biggest and baddest of storms, Baton Rouge is a relatively safe place to be.  There is plenty of time to plan for people just staying in Baton Rouge past the game, and those planning on traveling to Baton Rouge can and should take the things they would need for an extended absence.  Now, if you're fearful of catastrophic loss, such as if you live in a low-lying area of New Orleans, you probably should just plan to skip the game and prepare for leaving your home instead.  But, if you're just taking precautionary measures, and expect to be gone for about a week, you should just make it part of the trip.
  2. If we're going to cancel a game taking place 48 hours before a hurricane might hit, we might as well cancel football altogether.  I mean seriously, how many years are we going to have in which there isn't a hurricane in the Gulf in the week leading up to a football game?  If the standard for canceling a football game is "hurricane is within 2 days of possibly making landfall in or near Louisiana", we'll be canceling and rescheduling at least one game per season more years than not.  This would be a seriously disruptive policy that I think would also be rather unnecessary.
  3. It's really not that hard to execute a small evacuation during a game week.  It's been done before.  I remember it being done in 1998.  I remember it well because I was shamefully living with my parents in Gonzales at the time (post-grad school unemployment issues) and I couldn't take the interstate home.  It was very inconvenient, but I managed, as did everyone else.  Now, I think it was perhaps Houma or Morgan City being evacuated for that, and not New Orleans as a whole, but it was managed without great pain or difficulty.  An orderly evacuation, if it's even necessary, starting Friday should not be impossible to pull off simultaneously with game preparation.  It should be especially do-able if it's really going to be planned to start days ahead of projected landfall.
  4. If you were going to execute an evacuation 48-62 hours ahead of time, as projected, how could you even be sure what areas needed to be evacuated.  62 hours ahead of Monday evening corresponds to early Saturday morning.  If you're trying to project which areas are in the most danger for a Monday night hurricane on Saturday morning, where would you even begin?  The projections would still be very uncertain.  Only the most vulnerable would have to be moved at that point.  The rest would have to wait until there was greater certainty.

 

I realize the State of Louisiana is very antsy about a hurricane after what happened in 2005, but I don't think we should forget that most hurricane scares end up not coming to the sort of catastrophic fruition we witnessed in 2005.  This is not at all to suggest that we should ignore the danger, but at the same time it will get us nowhere to try to move mountains every time there is danger on the horizon.  Sensible solutions mean measured solutions, and measured solutions means not overreacting.

Now if this storm was projected to hit Saturday morning or Sunday morning, I might have a different opinion, but canceling an event that occurs a full 48 hours before landfall just seems wasteful and it seems like overreacting.  It seems like, to borrow a phrase from 2001, "if we cancel this game, the hurricane has won."  We cannot and should not drop everything in our lives just because a hurricane might hit in the intermediate future.  In this situation, I think we can both take the necessary precautions and go on about our lives for the most part, at least through Saturday.

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