Lots of Mizzou players talked to the media yesterday...

Sophomore TB Derrick Washington
On the loss to Oklahoma State:
“They were stunting a lot up front, and our line had trouble adjusting to it. I think that was the main thing. It was completely different from the previous weeks, and we’ve got some things to work on. They were doing a lot of twisting, and I think they blitzed almost every play. We’ve just got to work on it, our scout team will give us a better look, and we’ll be fine. It’s a tough loss, and we are taking it hard, but we ended that yesterday. We’ve got to get that out of our mind and look forward to Texas.”

...

On Mizzou’s drop to #11 in the AP Poll:
“We really try not to pay too much attention to the rankings, but we all looked at it. We took that kind of hard, that we were undefeated and then had one loss and dropped right down to 11th. But if we come back with a big win this week, we should move right back up. They forget about us, but we’re going to make a statement so we don’t have to worry about anyone except ourselves.”

PowerMizzou's got press conference audio, if that's your thing.

Texas Links!

• Mutigers.com: official release
• Dave Matter: Monday notes (and some determining factors for this coming Saturday).  Did you realize that Chase Daniel completed 25 of his last 27 passes on Saturday (with the other two going to the other team)?  Holy crap.
• Mizzourah: Moving past 10/11
• Austin American-Statesman: Horns are No. 1, but not perfect, with plenty of work to do
• Missourian: Tigers put loss in past
• Dallas Morning News: Longhorns want Dallas feat in rear-view mirror
• Post-Dispatch: Bouncing back quickly?
• KC Star: MU players still believe they can reach their goals
• KC Star: Texas keeps lid on excitement of No. 1
• Post-Dispatch: [Colt] McCoy has gone from skinny to solid
• Post-Dispatch: Tigers relish facing No. 1

Yesterday was Monday, which means Like Father, Unlike Son and Dave Matter's Big 12 Notes!

The Trib has an article about Mizzou Volleyball's recent progress.  I think it's probably too late for a serious NCAA tourney run, unless they go on a streak right this second, but they believe in their chances, which is certainly a good thing.

Finally, there's been another shakeup at the top of Rivals.com's Rivals 100 rankings for the 2009 recruiting class...and once again Sheldon Richardson is the biggest beneficiary.  The Mizzou commit is now the #5 player in the country.  Wow.  If he's really this good (and if he stays firm in his commitment to Mizzou), the 6'4, 290 kid could have a legitimate chance of starting at TE, DE, or DT for Mizzou next year (my guess: DE).  Oh yeah, and Bryce Brown, who is visiting Columbia in a couple weeks, is the #2 player on the list.  Yikes.

So as I was entering play-by-play data yesterday, I had an extra spring in my step.  I was very curious what the BTBS data would say about this game...how it would explain the whole "outgained them, broke even on turnovers...still lost at home" thing.  Well...now I'm wishing I hadn't looked at this...wishing I had just skipped right over the BTBS piece this week.  Mizzou dominated in almost every statistical category except one: Passing Downs.  You know that whole concept of "leverage" that I've been pushing recently?  If you haven't hopped on board the Leverage train yet, you might want to do so now, as Leverage cost Mizzou an undefeated record.

• So Missouri outgained OSU in terms of yards and EqPts...
• They split in turnover margin...
• They out-leveraged them (in terms of how many Passing Downs they forced)...
• They won the field-position battle...
• They dominated the OSU O-line in terms of line yards (OSU was averaging over 3.6 line yards per carry)...
• They didn't miss their season S&P average by much...
• They held OSU to what was by far their lowest S&P of the season...
• And they lost.  Because they were absolutely horrific on Passing Downs.
• There were 6 turnovers in the game, and almost all of them were relatively huge.  Mizzou's were worth 4.68 points (Danario trips and falls), 5.89 points (Daniel bombs it to nobody in particular), and 4.37 points (Lavine steps in front of Maclin).  OSU's were worth 6.13 points (Baston recovers fumble at end of half), 3.66 points (Bridges INT) and 4.28 points (Moore sticks Bryant, Gettis recovers).  Any one of those doesn't happen, and the result is probably significantly different.
• Finally, I can't say enough about how well OSU tackled.  They were fast, and they didn't miss.  That was the biggest reason they held Mizzou to 0.40 Points Per Play.

More analysis after the jump.

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Alright, a few OSU links, and then we wash our hands of this game.

• The Trib: Hell on horseback
• The Trib: Tigers, experts never saw this loss coming
• PowerMizzou: Sunday Grade Card
• KC Star: MU, Daniel can still regroup and reach their goals

And as always, Dave Matter empties the notebook...

Missouri’s defense gave up three big plays, but the D didn’t lose this game. MU held Oklahoma State to 130 yards and 24 points below its season averages, made some clutch stops in the second half, forced two takeaways and put the ball in Daniel’s hands to deliver the comeback. Nose tackle Jaron Baston followed up his first sack last week with a strong game in the trenches; Castine Bridges and Carl Gettis came up with a few big plays; and William Moore, Hardy Ricks and Sean Weatherspoon made some timely tackles. Simply put, the standard for which defenses should be judged in the Big 12 has changed over the last few years, and the Tigers’ D did enough to win Saturday’s game.

And now...moving on...to Texas links!

• KC Star: Daniel, McCoy have had role reversal heading into matchup
• Austin American-Statesman: Missouri has golden opportunity against UT
• Austin American-Statesman: He may be Horns' 'other' coordinator, but Davis is working magic
• Dallas Morning News: Plenty of work remains for No. 1 Texas

Football recruiting news: a couple of JUCO defenders visited Mizzou this weekend and came away quite impressed.  One (Joshua Tatum) was a big-time recruit out of high school--signed with USC--and has offers from some major programs.  The other (Jarrell Harrison) appears to be a comple and total sleeper recruit--signed with UNLV out of high school.  Meanwhile, the Post-Dispatch tells us that Texas is where the talent is.  Good to know.

Finally, just in case you thought this weekend's crappiness was limited to football...Mizzou Volleyball played alright but got swept at home by Nebraska yesterday (more from the Missourian), and Mizzou Soccer lost to Oklahoma State in OT (more from the Missourian).  Good times.

No Brass Bonanza today, friends.  Join us as we discuss Mizzou's first loss of the 2008 campaign, a surprising they-just-straight-up-outplayed-us loss to Mike Gundy's 'Pokes. Rptgwb, The Beef, Uribe Auction, MCboomofdoom, and I discuss what went right and wrong, and what to expect from Texas next week.

And if the Conchords didn't get you through these trying times, let Bonnie Tyler take you home...it's okay to cry a little...turn around, bright eyes...

Oh yeah, and if you've got any pictures of the "cheering up" variety to share in comments, feel free. I'll start.

Bryan Burwell says the Mizzou defense feels slighted.  First of all, good.  It's always great when you can play the "nobody respects us" card.  Second, they're right.  Somehow the Illinois game, despite being a relatively marquee non-conference win and despite the never getting within one possession in the second half, has resulted in us having less respect than we would have gotten if we'd just pummeled UL-Monroe or something to start the season.

The Missourian has a relatively interesting story about Mizzou's now-celebrated TD celebration.  Love the last sentence.

Dave Matter talks OSU with The Daily Oklahoman's Jenni Carlson.

BTS: Have you seen enough from OSU's defense to think it can stop some of the top teams left on the schedule?

Carlson: Stop them, no. But it might be able to slow them down a bit. Again, I'm not really sure that the Cowboys have been truly tested yet this season. It will be interesting to see how they do against Missouri. No way will they stop the Tigers, but if they can get some stops and maybe a couple turnovers, that would be a big step in the right direction for OSU.

More OSU Links!

• KC Star: Defense could decide gunfight at Mizzou
• PowerMizzou: Three Tiger keys against Oklahoma State
• Tulsa World: OSU's penalty problems
• Daily Oklahoman: The Cowboys are in a new position - 5-0 and in the spotlight
• Tulsa World: Big-play athletes (Jeremy Maclin & Dez Bryant)
• Daily Oklahoman: OSU football: Answering the skeptics
• O'Colly (OSU student paper): Perrish Cox's three biggest fans
• O'Colly: Into the fire

Jake Harry: the invisible man.

After the game, a reporter facetiously asked MU Coach Gary Pinkel if he planned to prorate Harry’s scholarship.

Quarterback Chase Daniel, the man most responsible for Harry’s irrelevance, took the joke a step further.

" ‘Why do you even need a scholarship? You don’t play,’ " he asked Harry in jest. "He laughs about it, too. He says, ‘Just miss a pass on third down. Let me get on the field once or twice a game.’ "

Harry didn’t get that chance against the Cornhuskers and has kicked only nine times in five games. It’s an occupational hazard when you punt for the third-ranked Tigers (5-0, 1-0 Big 12), who are averaging 53 points entering Saturday’s game against 17th-ranked Oklahoma State (5-0, 1-0).

Not that Harry is complaining.

The Mizzou offense: an embarrassment of riches.

Not even Don James thinks Gary Pinkel would leave Mizzou for Washington.

Finally, a quick basketball recruiting note: a new big man has emerged on Mizzou's radar screen, and he's got a great name.  That's right, I'm talking about 6'10, 240 Jarrid Famous, who has offers from Mizzou, Xavier, and seemingly the entire bottom half of the Big East.

Thoughts...

• OSU's offensive leverage total is a little low to me, considering they haven't played many great defenses.  A 72% rate against iffy competition means Mizzou could force them into the high-60% range.  What that means is, a lot of passing downs for OSU.  Now, they've done well so far in Passing Downs this year, but still...the more PD's for OSU, the better for Mizzou.
• Both teams are obviously explosive on offense and decent on defense, but you see from the numbers that, against slightly harder competition, Mizzou's offensive and defensive numbers have both been a bit better.  That's encouraging.  However, in close games, OSU's defense has been mighty stout so far.
• OSU's 3.63 Line Yards per carry is simply astounding.  That's really, really good.  Combined with the meager two sacks they've allowed, you begin to think that OSU has a pretty damn stout offensive line, huh?
• Meanwhile, MU's only giving up 0.16 PPP rushing.  Even when they give up some yards, they're pretty empty yards.
• OSU and MU have pretty much identical S&P numbers in the passing game, but the sheer quantity of passing tells you something.  OSU appears to be an "establish the run, beat 'em deep" team...which is obviously a bit different than Mizzou's strategy.
• Mizzou's success rate is 62.1% on Non-Passing Downs.  Oy.
• Both defenses are good on Passing Downs, but Mizzou's has been a smidge better.  Take out the horrific breakdowns against Illinois four games ago, and Mizzou's Passing Down breakdowns have been minimal at best.
• Both offenses are great in every quarter (I'm ignoring Q4 numbers, as neither teams have played many meaningful plays in Q4), but they're best in Q3.  Meanwhile, Mizzou's defense seems to be iffy in the 'gameplan' quarters (Q1/Q3) and dominant in the 'talent' quarters (Q2/Q4), while OSU's defense gets a little worse each quarter.  Keep that last point in mind if they're actually slowing Mizzou down early.

Projections after the jump.

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Okay this headline really annoys me: "Despite criticism Tigers' secondary insists it's improving."  We don't have to take their word for it.  The stats bear that claim out as well.  Here are the pass efficiency ratings for the five starting QBs we’ve faced so far (taking into consideration that 115.0 to 130.0 is considered good)

• Illinois: 181.9 (season average: 145.23)
• SEMO: 90.9 (season average: 124.25)
• Nevada: 106.7 (season average: 133.78)
• Buffalo: 116.3 (season average: 150.09)
• Nebraska: 144.1 (season average: 156.04)

Granted, it’s still early, so each team’s season averages could be skewed good or bad, but Mizzou has held four of five opponents below their season average in pass efficiency.  They held Nevada and Buffalo far below their averages (which is to be expected against a non-BCS team), and the only reason Nebraska even approached their season average was because Ganz went 4-for-5 for 61 yards and a TD against the scrubs at the end.

Beyond this, could have a great pass defense and still rank pretty low on the yardage scale considering a) opponents run a ton of plays against them because the offense scores so quickly, and b) opponents pass a ton against them because they’re pretty much immediately down 10 points as soon as the game starts.  The thing about passing yards is that, unlike rushing yards, if you insist strongly enough, you can rack up quite a few yards.  It's yards per attempt that matters (and for Mizzou opponents TDs per attempt also matters--and both measures are included in Pass Efficiency), and after the first-game breakdowns, Mizzou has been above average in that regard.

Oklahoma State links!

• PowerMizzou: Tiger defense braces for tough test
• Tulsa World: OSU O-line: No such thing as average
• Dave Matter: Behind the Numbers
• ESPN (Insider): OSU vs MU preview
• Daily Oklahoman: [OSU DB Jacob] Lacey is on time when it counts

Brock Christopher: under the radar and awesome.

From the time he was old enough to enjoy his family’s twice-a-year trips to Columbia to watch the Tigers play on Saturdays, Christopher knew he was born to play linebacker at Missouri. Coming from Kearney, a Class 4 powerhouse program northeast of Kansas City, Christopher probably could have enhanced his recruiting stock and drawn more interest from other programs had he not cut off the process so early - he committed to MU in April of his junior year - but drawing attention has never been his thing.

Instead, his teammates are doing it for him this season.

...

"He’s not flamboyant," Weatherspoon said. "He’s not going to be jumping up and down all the time. But he’s a great linebacker and a great counterpoint to myself. … Maybe if he gets a little more excited out there, people might be watching him then."

Time of possession: worthless.

Derrick Washington: really, really good.  Jaron Baston: improving by the day.

Mizzou expectations: great.

Joe Posnanski has a great write-up of Mizzou's change in fortunes in SI.  I swear I wrote about the early-'90s and Omniturf last night before I read this.  Of course, I didn't say Chase Daniel has "affable arrogance", so Joe wins this round.

Football recruiting links!  First, Maplewood ATH Bryant Allen still likes Mizzou, though they may no longer be the far-and-away favorite.  Wisconsin has moved well into the picture.  Mizzou, two 4-star kids are working to schedule official visits to Mizzou: Dallas safety Kevin Brent and NC WR Jheranie Boyd.

Finally...Mizzou Volleyball actually put up a helluva fight last night in Manhattan, only getting outscored by four points all match.  Unfortunately they were taken down in four sets, 25-23 22-25 23-25 22-25.  A small difference in kill %, 6 service errors, and -4 block deficit did the Tigers in.  That they played well is a small moral victory, but the loss sent them to 8-8 (2-4 in the Big 12), so...a moral victory didn't cut it.

...on October 17, 1991, I attended my first Mizzou game, a 41-7 romp of an impossibly bad Oklahoma State team that ended up going 0-10-1.  I sat on the Rock M with my dad, watched some pretty bad football (though I didn't necessarily think it was that bad at the time), and watched some kids slide down the muddy hill in the second half when everybody stopped paying attention to the game. It moved Mizzou to 3-2-1 on the season, and the 13-year old naive optimist in me thought that the dominant team I saw on the Omniturf that day would pretty easily be able to get past the Iowa State's and Kansas's on the schedule and make their first bowl since I was old enough to pay attention.  Here are the results from the rest of 1991:

Nebraska 63, Mizzou 6
Iowa State 23, Mizzou 22
Oklahoma 56, Mizzou 16
Kansas State 32, Mizzou 0
Kansas 53, Mizzou 29

Final record: 3-7-1.

In light of this, I'd like to mention that Missouri is currently #2 in the country, their starting QB has been on the cover of Sports Illustrated twice in the last 11 months, and their starting QB AND backup QB are on the cover of ESPN the Magazine right now.  They have two of the top 5-6 Heisman candidates (including the leader), and they have potentially six All-Americans on the roster.

Roughly six weeks after my first trip to Faurot, I had learned my first lesson about putting hope in Mizzou football.  I would keep learning "lessons" about getting my hopes up well into my undergraduate and grad school years.  I don't have much of a point to make beyond this...I just felt like further reiterating that this upswing we're on right now?  Pretty damn cool.  Not that we couldn't still have a couple soul-crushing moments this very season or anything, but...for now, it's pretty damn cool.

1 - I'm not going to mention Spit-Gate here (whoops, I just did...scratch that!), but instead I'll ask you this: what was your single favorite moment from last Saturday night's excorcism in Lincoln?

2 - Can OSU slow down Missouri enough on Saturday night to keep it a game late into the fourth quarter?

3 - Kansas-ISU: nice recovery and win by KU or warning sign of bad things to come for the Beakers?

4 - Name me the teams you think could beat Missouri right now (on a neutral field).

5 - Big 12 Picks!

Colorado at Kansas
Nebraska at Texas Tech
Kansas State at Texas A&M
Iowa State at Baylor

And the marquee matchups...

Oklahoma vs Texas
Oklahoma State at Missouri

Continue reading this post »

It's great that the Big 12 has four Top 10 teams and all, but as ESPN's Pat Forde points out...it's time for the Big 12's 'have's to start playing each other.

It's Cut to the Chase time!

On the time of possession stat …
“I just saw a stat that we were dead last in the NCAA, which is totally fine with us. We’re the second-leading scoring offense in the nation. I think time of possession is the least overlooked stat in America. I’m glad we’re 119 or 118th. That doesn’t mean anything for us. The only thing that means is our defense is out there a lot more.”

On the pro potential of his teammates …
“That’s a hard one to look at. I think everyone in their own right can play in the NFL. I was out at a camp with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, He was at the Elite 11 camp. He was no faster than Tommy Saunders and no bigger than Tommy Saunders. So, I think Tommy can play. Chase” Coffman “can play. Jared Perry can play. J-Mac. Colin Brown, Kurtis Gregory. It’s ridiculous the amount of people on our offense who can play. You look at Danario Alexander, and I’m sure I’m missing some. So, sorry, if your name gets overlooked. On our offense and our defense, there’s so many higher level players than in the past. And we’re doing a good job in college. That’s not my call for the next level; that’s the GMs around the nation.”

Oklahoma State Links!

• PowerMizzou: Sneak peek at the OSU offense
• Post-Dispatch: Clash of (new) titans
• KC Star: OSU's high-scoring offense mirrors Missouri's
• The Missourian: OSU won't change offensive approach against Missouri

Looks like PowerMizzou's on the same page as our BTBS voters yesterday--Derrick Washington was the NU game's best player.  And the Trib has some good news: Washington's only getting started.

Bo Pelini: still irked.  And still not a very good coach.

Not much to be argued with in regard to Stewart Mandel's latest SI power poll...

Finally, be sure to catch Mizzou Volleyball on Fox Sports at #16 Kansas State in Columbia and Kansas City tonight.  It probably won't be too pleasant an experience, but...hey, they'll be on TV.