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ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue


Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.

You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you.  I have the data going back three years in the SEC.  The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.  

Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:

ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack +  20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway.  Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.  

Would you like to see 2006 and 2007?  How about after the jump?


Quarterback ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida 8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia 8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss 7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama 5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas 5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU 5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina 5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU 5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee 5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn 5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy 5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina 4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State 4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky 4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee 4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy 4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn 4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State 2.85


Alright, we've been through those numbers once before.  Let's take a look at 2007:

Quarterback ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida 9.11
Ryan Perrilloux, LSU 8.20
Erik Ainge, Tennessee 7.12
Andre Woodson, Kentucky 6.89
Matthew Stafford, Georgia 6.78
Casey Dick, Arkansas 6.15
Matt Flynn, LSU 6.08
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina 5.81
Chris Smelley, South Carolina 5.69
John Parker Wilson, Bama 5.62
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy 5.16
Seth Adams, Ole Miss 5.03
Brandon Cox, Auburn 5.00
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State 4.73


What are my take-away messages from this?:

  • Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
  • Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
  • Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year.  Or at least, he was a little more productive.
  • You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference.  It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
  • Just look at Ryan Perrilloux.  That's what we didn't have in 2008.  Well, that and a defense.
  • Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).  

Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:

Quarterback ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Jamarcus Russell, LSU 9.16
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina 8.26
Erik Ainge, Tennessee 8.07
Andre Woodson, Kentucky 7.79
Chris Leak, Florida 7.02
Syvelle Newton, South Carolina 7.00
Casey Dick, Arkansas 6.99
Chris Nickson, Vandy 6.55
Brandon Cox, Auburn 6.37
John Parker Wilson, Bama 6.14
Omarr Conner, Mississippi State 6.13
Michael Henig, Mississippi State 5.82
Matthew Stafford, UGA 5.78
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas 5.68
Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss 4.27


What are my take-home messages from 2006?:


  • Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
  • But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years.  Just look at John Parker Wilson.  His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased.  Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production.  Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008?  Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008?  Heck no.  The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
  • Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
  • What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?

If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.