It's likely to be the big question repeated ad nauseum over the next few days for all us Tiger fans, so lets break it down. Since there is only 1 SEC game to be played, we'll do a few sets of projections based on both possible outcomes.
But first, the bowl selection order for the SEC (Yes, I am holding on to the old bowl names as long as there is a breath in my body)
- BCS
- Citrus (Capitol One)[Best available after BCS]
- Cotton [Best available West]
- Hall of Fame (Outback) [Best available East]
- Peach (Chick Fil A)
- Gator
- Music City [Pick order interchangeable to provide a better matchup as determined by SEC]
- Liberty [Pick order interchangeable to provide a better matchup as determined by SEC]
- Dixie (BBVA Compass, formerly PapaJohns.com)
The list can go either way depending on if SCar can pull the upset, but the conference is at least in the enviable position of having 10 bowl-eligible teams. Only Vandy and Ole Miss will stay home this year (Say it again, it makes you feel good every time you say it.)
Shreveport residents take note that the Indy bowl is no longer a tie-in for either the SEC or the Big 12. Instead you get ACC #7 vs Mountain #3, which I'm going to project as North Carolina (7-5) vs San Diego State (8-4). It should be noted that Boston College could be chosen as the ACC opponent instead and that SD State is actually the MWC #4, but moves up due to TCU's projected Rose Bowl berth.
Scenario #1 Auburn wins
- Auburn (BCS - Championship Game) v BCS #2
- Arkansas (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- LSU (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- Bama (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- S Car (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Miss St (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Florida (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Kentucky (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Lots of caveats to the above. If ILL beats Fresno St. this week, they could swap with Iowa (same record, no head-to-head), depriving us of seeing ZOOK face UF in Jacksonville. The Music and Liberty Bowls are both in Tennessee, but the Music has expressed interest in bringing the Vols to Nashville, so I see the SEC making that happen, even though UGA has a head-to-head win. And for sheer insanity, remember that Pitt could also win the Big East title this weekend. Wannstache, you sly dog.
Mich St. is the #3 B10 team, but the loser of the 3 way tie for the B10 title only because of BCS rankings. Dantonio has already given himself a heart attack because of a game, imagine what Les will do to him (too soon?) It will be the 3rd Big 10 Team Les Miles has faced in a bowl as LSU head coach (4th if you want to count Notre Dame)
Scenario #2 Auburn loses and is pushed out of the Championship Game
- S Car (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- Auburn (BCS - Rose ) v BCS B10 Champ (Wisconsin)
- Arkansas (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- LSU (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- Florida (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Bama (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Miss St. (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Kentucky (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Thanks to their passing of Oregon last night for the BCS #1, there is some speculation that Auburn could still make the title game. Let's assume for now that they don't, but are still ranked high enough to get an at-large spot. Auburn becomes the 4th SEC team to ever go to the Rose. Everyone gets knocked down a peg, and we get a potential match-up with a pissed off Bo Pelini and Neb squad in the Jerry Dome.
Scenario #3 Auburn loses and is NOT pushed out of the Championship Game
- S Car (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- Auburn (BCS - Championship) v BCS #1
- Arkansas (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- LSU (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- Florida (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Bama (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Miss St. (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Kentucky (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Not much change (though TCU fans will be pissed) if you're a fan of the BCS looking so stupid that it breaks, this is your dream scenario.
Scenario #4 Auburn loses and is pushed out of the BCS
- S Car (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- Auburn (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- Arkansas (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- Florida (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- LSU (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Bama (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Miss St. (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Georgia (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
- Kentucky ???? (no bowl tie-in left, will fill empty spot somewhere else)
A real nightmare here as everyone falls down 2 pegs. In a year when the West is clearly better than the East, It's S Car that is the lone BCS team. We'll see an ACC team in the GA Dome to bookend the year, Miss St. falls all the way to the Liberty (Music still would have the ability to pull UT), UGA goes to Birmingham, and Kentucky fills an empty slot somewhere. Remember that this only happens if Auburn loses badly enough to drop all the way out of the BCS. We are talking a collapse of epic proportions.
Scenario #5 Auburn wins and Cam Newton Ruled Ineligible, Wins Vacated.
- Arkansas (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- LSU (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- Bama (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- S Car (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Florida(Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Miss St.(Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Kentucky(Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Scenario #6 Auburn loses and Cam Newton Ruled Ineligible, Wins Vacated.
- S Car (BCS - Sugar) v BCS at large (likely Ohio St.)
- Arkansas (Citrus) v Big Ten best after BCS (Mich St.)
- LSU (Cotton) v Big 12 best after BCS (loser of B12 champ game, Neb or OU)
- Florida (Hall of Fame) v B10 best after Citrus (Iowa)
- Bama (Peach) v ACC Champ game loser (VT or FSU)
- Miss St. (Gator) v B10 #4 or #5 (Illinois)
- Georgia (Liberty) v C-USA Champ (UCF or SMU)
- Tennessee (Music City) v ACC #6 (BC or UNC)
- Kentucky (Dixie) v Big East #5 (Pitt, USF, or UL)
Here's a fun exercise. The only difference in either is that Auburn isn't bowling. (Not trolling, Auburn fans, just laying out the hypothetical. We all know the NCAA won't be able to rule Cam ineligible until after Auburn wins the championship).
(OK, trolling just a bit there)
Alternate projections are welcome in the comments below (LSU v A&M in the Cotton is a popular one, but not likely unless the B-12 pulls some shenanigans to screw with Nebraska) Those looking to get a head start on scouting potential opponents should start with these blogs:
Mich St. The Only Colors
Nebraska Corn Nation
FSU Tomahawk Nation