Stat Breakdown - ULL vs SHSU

#2 University of Louisiana at Lafayette vs. #3 Sam Houston St.

Starting Pitching

Projected Starters

ULL: LHP Ryan Wilson (3.35 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 78 IP, 0.267 OBA, 59K, 24 BB)

SHSU: LHP Cody Dickson (4.33 ERA, 1.198 WHIP, 89.1 IP, 0.186 OBA, 87K, 49 BB)

Not gonna lie, I'm conflicted. This is a hard match to call.

Ryan Wilson has some telling numbers. Wilson gave up 21 doubles and 10 homeruns on the season. The home runs are the most given up by a starting pitcher in this regional, and the doubles are the second most given up. He also has a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of 0.304, which means he will give up some hits and have to pitch out of jams. He does not give up free passes easily with a walk rate a 7%, and he has decent strike out percentage of 18%. ULL's defense has not been spectacular with him on the mound. His ERA is 3.35, but his runs allowed per game (R/G) is 4.385, more than a run difference. Wilson needs to limit extra base hits and have solid defense around him if the Cajuns want to win.

Cody Dickson differs from Wilson in a couple of ways. Dickson is more prone to give up a free pass with a walk rate of 13%, and hitting 12 batters shows me he is prone to control issues. Opponents are only batting 0.186 against Dickson, so free passes are probably the main cause of his elevated ERA. Dickson gives up few extra base hits. In 89.1 innings pitched, he gave up only 6 doubles, 1 triple and 4 homeruns. He has a BABIP of 0.244, which backs up his stout opponent batting average. He is a high strike out guy with a strike out rate of 23%, so he will probably be really aggressive against ULL. No team in the Southland Conference hits as well as ULL (Lamar was tops in the conference at 0.300), so this will be Dickson's biggest test of the season.

I think SHSU has a slight advantage in this match up. If Dickson can pitch to his potential and limit free bases, he can possibly mitigate the ULL lineup. I don't think he can completely stop them from scoring, but he can limit the potential damage. If he struggles, ULL will eat him alive.

Very Slight Advantage SHSU

Hitting

ULL Projected Lineup

Row Labels	RC	BA	slg%	ob%	GPA	K%	BB%
Adams, Caleb	49	0.341	0.642	0.432	0.355	19%	12%
Butler, Dylan	30	0.307	0.6	0.325	0.296	27%	4%
Conrad, Jace	33	0.292	0.426	0.353	0.265	7%	6%
Girouard, Tyler	49	0.372	0.616	0.473	0.367	18%	14%
Harrison, Seth	52	0.34	0.568	0.42	0.331	21%	9%
Kjerstad, Dex	66	0.398	0.631	0.441	0.356	10%	6%
Leonards, Ryan	33	0.332	0.418	0.405	0.287	11%	8%
Strentz, Michael	48	0.319	0.571	0.43	0.336	20%	8%
Trahan, Blake	44	0.335	0.447	0.424	0.303	11%	12%

SHSU Projected Lineup

Row Labels	RC	BA	slg%	ob%	GPA	K%	BB%
Plumlee, Jessie	34	0.313	0.405	0.429	0.294	11%	11%
Atwood, Colt	31	0.306	0.328	0.361	0.244	14%	6%
Azar, Anthony	41	0.309	0.49	0.38	0.294	11%	8%
Miller, Kevin	37	0.338	0.404	0.392	0.277	6%	4%
Burgess, Carter	33	0.318	0.395	0.358	0.26	9%	7%
Plucheck, Luke	40	0.297	0.505	0.366	0.291	25%	7%
Powell, Wyatt	1	0.167	0.167	0.444	0.242	11%	22%
O'Hearn, Ryan	22	0.254	0.353	0.337	0.24	21%	11%
Farney, Ryan	19	0.291	0.355	0.346	0.244	15%	7%

ULL features a great lineup. Top to bottom, they are the strongest lineup in the regional. They have the highest team slugging percentage, batting average, and on base percentage in the regional. Every potential starter possesses a Runs Created (RC, a stat that encompasses all offensive stats then converts it into runs potentially contributed to the team) stat above 30, which is really outstanding. The players that stand out to me are Dex Kjerstad, Tyler Girouard, and Caleb Adams. All three have RC stats of 49+, have batting averages in the mid to high 0.300, on base percentages of 0.430+, and slugging percentages above 0.600. Kjerstad and Adams lead the team with 14 and 12 homeruns respectively. The only knock against ULL that I can really see is that they have three guys (not the ones mentioned above) with strike out rates above 20%. Simply put, this team hits for average and power, so don't be surprised if they put up a high number of hits and runs on the scoreboard.

SHSU's lineup is not nearly as explosive as ULL. They have a few guys that hit for a decent average, but nobody jumps out as an overwhelmingly intimidating presence at the plate. The lineup batting average is 0.305 and has an on base percentage in the mid to upper 0.300s. The two best players in the lineup offensively are Anthony Azar and Luke Plucheck. Azar is a pretty well rounded batter. Azar possesses a 41 RC stat and bats 0.309/0.380/0.490 with 21 doubles, 5 homeruns, and a team high 45 RBI on the year. He is SHSU's best bet at extra base hits and will need to deliver against Wilson. Plucheck is the other big bat in the lineup. He has an RC stat of 40 and bats 0.297/0.366/0.505 with 10 doubles, 4 triples, 8 homeruns, and 40 RBI. Plucheck is prone to striking out with a strike out rate of 25%, so he needs to put the ball in play if SHSU wants to keep up with ULL. Overall, SHSU is a decent offensive team, but it will be tough for them to match what ULL is capable of doing offensively.

Advantage ULL

Defense

Defense is pretty much a wash between these two teams. Both have a fielding percentage around 0.970, and nothing really stands out too much statistically. ULL committed 46 errors on the season and SHSU committed 52, so no real advantage there. Both teams play fairly clean defense with the occasional error. Since I haven't seen either team play, I really can't say anything about range.

Advantage Push

Bullpen

ULL turns to four guys out of the pen: Cord Cockrell, Matt Hicks, Matt Plitt, and Kody Smith. None of these guys has real electric stuff when you look at their numbers. All have ERA's above 4.50, WHIP's above 1.400, and BABIP above 0.320. Plitt is the only one that has a high walk rate (12%), so these guys must leave the ball where their opponents can hit it.

SHSU also has four guys they use out of the pen: Alan Scott, Jason Simms, Michael Burchett, and Logan Boyd. Their numbers vary from guy to guy. Simms and Scott appear to be the two best options coming out of the bullpen. Simms has a 2.97 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 0.219 OBA, and 0.296 BABIP in 42.1 innings pitched. Scott has a 0.67 ERA, 0.862 WHIP, 0.163 OBA, and 0.200 BABIP in 26.2 innings pitched. Burchett and Boyd's numbers are not as good. They have ERAs above 3.50, WHIPs above 1.300, and BABIPs above 0.300, so look for Simms and Scott to be the go to guys for SHSU.

Overall, SHSU has an advantage here because they seem to have two really good guys out of the pen that can limit runs and keep batters off the base paths.

Advantage SHSU

Overall, I still think this is ULL's game to lose. While the pitching is pretty good from SHSU, ULL's offense rates as one of the best in the country. It's not a matter of if ULL scores, it's a matter of how much they will score. I do think the game is closer than what people would expect. SHSU's pitching should keep the score reasonable.

ULL wins 7-4

Stats

ULL

Hitting and Defense

Player	Team	pa	ab	r	h	BA	2b	3b	hr	rbi	tb	slg%	bb	hbp	so	gdp	ob%	sf	sh	sb	sba	cs	po	a	e	fld%	GPA	RC	BABIP	K%	BB%
Kjerstad, Dex	ULL	265	236	58	94	0.398	13	3	12	43	149	0.631	16	5	26	3	0.441	4	4	10	15	5	110	5	3	0.975	0.356	66	0.406	10%	6%
Harrison, Seth	ULL	246	206	58	70	0.340	16	2	9	45	117	0.568	23	7	52	0	0.42	2	8	10	16	6	86	5	5	0.948	0.331	52	0.415	21%	9%
Adams, Caleb	ULL	206	176	47	60	0.341	9	1	14	51	113	0.642	25	4	40	3	0.432	1	0	3	6	3	29	2	1	0.969	0.355	49	0.374	19%	12%
Girouard, Tyler	ULL	203	164	33	61	0.372	13	3	7	37	101	0.616	29	5	37	3	0.473	3	2	3	8	5	30	79	4	0.965	0.367	49	0.439	18%	14%
Strentz, Michael	ULL	230	191	49	61	0.319	23	2	7	43	109	0.571	18	20	45	7	0.43	1	0	5	7	2	307	46	7	0.981	0.336	48	0.386	20%	8%
Trahan, Blake	ULL	240	197	45	66	0.335	10	0	4	36	88	0.447	28	4	27	1	0.424	2	9	13	13	0	88	163	13	0.951	0.303	44	0.369	11%	12%
Conrad, Jace	ULL	228	195	48	57	0.292	12	1	4	30	83	0.426	13	8	16	2	0.353	5	7	16	19	3	208	127	4	0.988	0.265	33	0.294	7%	6%
Leonards, Ryan	ULL	218	184	31	61	0.332	13	0	1	29	77	0.418	17	7	23	2	0.405	2	8	7	12	5	70	51	5	0.96	0.287	33	0.370	11%	8%
Butler, Dylan	ULL	160	150	23	46	0.307	14	3	8	42	90	0.6	6	0	43	0	0.325	4	0	0	0	0	49	3	4	0.929	0.296	30	0.369	27%	4%
Compton, Chase	ULL	173	131	23	35	0.267	7	2	5	30	61	0.466	27	9	24	3	0.418	3	3	1	4	3	350	31	4	0.99	0.305	28	0.286	14%	16%
Carriere, Sam	ULL	84	74	13	17	0.230	4	0	1	5	24	0.324	4	1	12	0	0.275	1	4	2	2	0	21	39	4	0.938	0.205	8	0.258	14%	5%

Pitching

Player	Team	ERA	ip	h	app	gs	r	er	bb	so	2b	3b	hr	ab	b/avg	wp	hbp	bk	sfa	sha	BF	WHIP	OBA	BABIP	BB%	K%	H%	HR%	R/G	BB/K
Mayer	ULL	1.53	17.2	5	14	0	5	3	8	30	1	0	2	59	0.085	6	4	0	0	0	71	0.736	0.085	0.111	11%	42%	7%	3%	2.547	0.267
Harrison	ULL	3.18	5.2	5	3	0	2	2	3	6	2	0	1	20	0.25	0	0	0	0	0	23	1.412	0.250	0.308	13%	26%	22%	4%	3.176	0.500
Robichaux	ULL	3.20	101.1	87	15	15	42	36	21	80	15	3	6	363	0.24	5	21	1	2	6	413	1.066	0.240	0.290	5%	19%	21%	1%	3.730	0.263
Wilson	ULL	3.35	78	78	21	11	38	29	24	59	21	1	10	292	0.267	4	9	0	1	6	332	1.308	0.267	0.304	7%	18%	23%	3%	4.385	0.407
Zaunbrecher	ULL	4.15	13	13	8	0	6	6	5	14	0	2	1	48	0.271	2	2	0	1	0	56	1.385	0.271	0.353	9%	25%	23%	2%	4.154	0.357
Hicks	ULL	4.65	40.2	50	28	0	22	21	11	24	11	2	2	166	0.301	0	3	1	0	2	182	1.500	0.301	0.343	6%	13%	27%	1%	4.869	0.458
Plitt	ULL	4.70	30.2	31	13	3	19	16	17	21	6	3	1	113	0.274	5	5	0	2	3	140	1.565	0.274	0.323	12%	15%	22%	1%	5.576	0.810
Carter	ULL	4.71	21	27	15	2	13	11	6	16	2	1	4	84	0.321	1	0	2	2	0	92	1.571	0.321	0.348	7%	17%	29%	4%	5.571	0.375
Cockrell	ULL	5.02	37.2	50	15	1	24	21	5	21	12	1	4	156	0.321	0	4	1	0	1	166	1.460	0.321	0.351	3%	13%	30%	2%	5.735	0.238
Boutte	ULL	5.27	85.1	102	15	15	57	50	26	58	24	3	7	345	0.296	4	11	2	3	4	389	1.500	0.296	0.336	7%	15%	26%	2%	6.012	0.448
Smith	ULL	5.84	44.2	51	16	4	32	29	15	30	10	2	2	172	0.297	6	8	0	4	4	203	1.478	0.297	0.340	7%	15%	25%	1%	6.448	0.500
Frith	ULL	6.00	12	13	9	0	9	8	2	5	3	3	1	49	0.265	3	2	0	0	0	53	1.250	0.265	0.279	4%	9%	25%	2%	6.750	0.400
Traffica	ULL	7.26	31	40	9	8	32	25	11	21	6	2	2	128	0.313	6	5	1	2	3	149	1.645	0.313	0.355	7%	14%	27%	1%	9.290	0.524

SHSU

Hitting and Defense

Player	Team	pa	ab	r	h	BA	2b	3b	hr	rbi	tb	slg%	bb	hbp	so	gdp	ob%	sf	sh	sb	sba	cs	po	a	e	fld%	GPA	RC	BABIP	K%	BB%
Azar, Anthony	Sam Houston St.	234	204	36	63	0.309	20	1	5	45	100	0.49	19	7	25	3	0.38	4	0	4	4	0	363	48	1	0.998	0.294	41	0.326	11%	8%
Plucheck, Luke	Sam Houston St.	233	202	39	60	0.297	10	4	8	40	102	0.505	17	6	59	0	0.366	2	6	11	15	4	91	3	1	0.989	0.291	40	0.380	25%	7%
Miller, Kevin	Sam Houston St.	241	213	36	72	0.338	6	1	2	37	86	0.404	10	11	14	0	0.392	3	4	1	1	0	42	123	9	0.948	0.277	37	0.350	6%	4%
Plumlee, Jessie	Sam Houston St.	209	163	32	51	0.313	9	0	2	26	66	0.405	22	14	24	1	0.429	4	6	5	5	0	255	79	9	0.974	0.294	34	0.348	11%	11%
Burgess, Carter	Sam Houston St.	246	223	39	71	0.318	9	4	0	27	88	0.395	16	0	22	0	0.358	4	3	0	2	2	91	146	14	0.944	0.260	33	0.346	9%	7%
Atwood, Colt	Sam Houston St.	261	229	39	70	0.306	5	0	0	25	75	0.328	15	5	36	0	0.361	0	12	9	10	1	120	7	5	0.962	0.244	31	0.363	14%	6%
Simerly, Hayden	Sam Houston St.	171	155	23	41	0.265	7	1	9	36	77	0.497	10	4	52	1	0.322	2	0	1	3	2	2	0	2	0.5	0.269	25	0.333	30%	6%
O'Hearn, Ryan	Sam Houston St.	197	173	18	44	0.254	6	4	1	24	61	0.353	22	0	41	0	0.337	1	1	0	1	1	249	13	7	0.974	0.240	22	0.326	21%	11%
Farney, Ryan	Sam Houston St.	160	141	24	41	0.291	9	0	0	11	50	0.355	11	1	24	1	0.346	0	7	4	5	1	61	84	6	0.96	0.244	19	0.350	15%	7%
Powell, Wyatt	Sam Houston St.	9	6	4	1	0.167	0	0	0	1	1	0.167	2	1	1	0	0.444	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.242	1	0.200	11%	22%
Pierce, Shea	Sam Houston St.	56	46	5	12	0.261	1	0	0	4	13	0.283	5	4	11	0	0.382	0	1	0	0	0	19	3	1	0.957	0.243	6	0.343	20%	9%

Pitching

Player	Team	ERA	ip	h	app	gs	r	er	bb	so	2b	3b	hr	ab	b/avg	wp	hbp	bk	sfa	sha	BF	WHIP	OBA	BABIP	BB%	K%	H%	HR%	R/G
Rumsey, David	Sam Houston St	0.00	1.2	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	0	1	0	8	0.600	0.000	0.000	13%	13%	0%	0%	0.000
Scott, Alan	Sam Houston St	0.67	26.2	14	18	0	6	2	9	17	2	0	0	86	0.163	0	6	0	1	1	103	0.862	0.163	0.200	9%	17%	14%	0%	2.025
Simms, Jason	Sam Houston St	2.98	42.1	34	25	0	15	14	18	41	2	0	0	155	0.219	8	3	0	1	4	181	1.228	0.219	0.296	10%	23%	19%	0%	3.189
Smith, Caleb	Sam Houston St	3.23	86.1	60	17	15	38	31	56	68	7	0	1	304	0.197	5	8	1	5	7	380	1.344	0.197	0.246	15%	18%	16%	0%	3.961
Eppler, Tyler	Sam Houston St	3.41	68.2	65	17	13	35	26	30	44	14	1	3	261	0.249	4	4	1	1	5	301	1.383	0.249	0.288	10%	15%	22%	1%	4.587
Godail, Andrew	Sam Houston St	3.42	73.2	64	14	13	34	28	45	62	12	1	1	263	0.243	7	11	2	5	7	331	1.480	0.243	0.307	14%	19%	19%	0%	4.154
Burchett, Michael	Sam Houston St	3.49	28.1	35	21	0	13	11	6	18	6	2	1	115	0.304	0	4	0	2	2	129	1.447	0.304	0.347	5%	14%	27%	1%	4.129
Boyd, Logan	Sam Houston St	4.02	40.1	33	18	2	25	18	21	47	5	2	2	148	0.223	4	4	0	1	2	176	1.339	0.223	0.310	12%	27%	19%	1%	5.579
Dickson, Cody	Sam Houston St	4.33	89.1	58	17	14	44	43	49	87	6	1	4	312	0.186	10	12	0	0	7	380	1.198	0.186	0.244	13%	23%	15%	1%	4.433
Manning, Miles	Sam Houston St	4.50	6	9	4	0	4	3	5	2	1	0	1	28	0.321	1	1	0	0	0	34	2.333	0.321	0.320	15%	6%	26%	3%	6.000
Barosh, Derek	Sam Houston St	5.79	14	16	9	0	10	9	5	11	2	0	1	56	0.286	0	1	0	2	0	64	1.500	0.286	0.326	8%	17%	25%	2%	6.429
Masters, Dirk	Sam Houston St	6.00	6	4	4	0	4	4	6	2	0	0	0	21	0.19	1	0	0	0	0	27	1.667	0.190	0.211	22%	7%	15%	0%	6.000
Cortina, Juan	Sam Houston St	6.92	13	13	13	0	11	10	8	12	1	1	0	48	0.271	2	1	0	2	1	60	1.615	0.271	0.342	13%	20%	22%	0%	7.615
Moore, Ford	Sam Houston St	13.50	0.2	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	0.5	0	2	0	1	0	6	3.000	0.500	0.500	17%	17%	17%	0%	13.500
Church, Jordan	Sam Houston St	13.50	2.2	4	4	0	4	4	4	4	1	0	0	10	0.4	0	2	0	0	0	16	3.000	0.400	0.667	25%	25%	25%	0%	13.500
Latin, Otis	Sam Houston St	54.00	0.1	1	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.5	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.000	0.500	0.500	33%	0%	33%	0%	54.000