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Starting Pitching - Projected Match-Ups
Game 1
Player Name | IP | AB | H | OBA | R | ER | ERA | 2B | 3B | HR | BABIP | K | BB | HBP | OBP% | WHIP | K/BB | R/G | K% | BB% | H % | Win | Loss |
Gray, Jonathan | 119.0 | 415 | 78 | 0.188 | 25 | 21 | 1.59 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0.277 | 138 | 22 | 9 | 0.243 | 0.840 | 6.3 | 1.89 | 30% | 7% | 17% | 10 | 2 |
Nola | 109.0 | 390 | 76 | 0.195 | 28 | 22 | 1.82 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0.262 | 111 | 17 | 9 | 0.245 | 0.853 | 6.5 | 2.31 | 26% | 6% | 18% | 11 | 0 |
Game 2
Player Name | IP | AB | H | OBA | R | ER | ERA | 2B | 3B | HR | BABIP | K | BB | HBP | OBP% | WHIP | K/BB | R/G | K% | BB% | H % | Win | Loss |
Overton, Dillon | 86.7 | 332 | 84 | 0.253 | 31 | 28 | 2.91 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0.319 | 76 | 22 | 5 | 0.307 | 1.223 | 3.5 | 3.22 | 20% | 7% | 23% | 9 | 2 |
Eades | 96.0 | 364 | 98 | 0.269 | 33 | 30 | 2.81 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0.332 | 77 | 30 | 8 | 0.337 | 1.333 | 2.6 | 3.09 | 19% | 9% | 24% | 8 | 1 |
Game 3 (if necessary)
Player Name | IP | AB | H | OBA | R | ER | ERA | 2B | 3B | HR | BABIP | K | BB | HBP | OBP% | WHIP | K/BB | R/G | K% | BB% | H % | Win | Loss |
Fisher, Jake | 53.3 | 203 | 57 | 0.281 | 21 | 15 | 2.53 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 0.351 | 50 | 14 | 7 | 0.348 | 1.331 | 3.6 | 3.54 | 22% | 9% | 25% | 3 | 2 |
Glenn | 82.0 | 299 | 70 | 0.234 | 28 | 23 | 2.52 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.263 | 37 | 16 | 13 | 0.301 | 1.049 | 2.3 | 3.07 | 11% | 9% | 21% | 7 | 2 |
The game that has every LSU and OU baseball fan drooling is the game 1 match up of Aaron Nola versus Jonathan Gray. Gray beats Nola in most statistically categories, but the numbers are so close that it's really a push between the two statistically. Gray has great velocity with his fastball and often reaches triple digits. Gray also possesses a nasty slider that he can use to keep batters off balance. Nola's velocity is not as good as Gray's, but he has excellent command of his fastball, a great change up, and hard to hit breaking ball. Honestly, this match up will come down to who is having a better day on the mound and which team can scrape together some runs.
Statistically, Ryan Eades and Dillon Overton are pretty much the same person. Neither one has a real advantage in one particular category. Eades does have more walks and hit batters than Overton, so Overton might have slightly better control than Eades. Both guys allow batters to reach base. Their BABIPs are both above .300 and both have WHIPs of 1.20+. Again, it will come down to who is having the better day on the mound and which team can have the better day at the plate.
If there is a game 3, then LSU holds an advantage in starting pitching. Cody Glenn does a better job of keeping guys off the base paths than Jake Fisher, which is apparent in his lower BABIP and WHIP. Fisher is more of a strikeout guy with a 22% strikeout rate. Glenn is prone to control issues, so if LSU wants to win Game 3 it will need Glenn to be on his A game.
Offense
Oklahoma Projected Starting Lineup (not in order)
Player Name | PA | AB | R | H | RBI | BA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | TB | Slug % | DP | BB | K | HBP | OBP |
Hermelyn, Anthony | 208 | 172 | 18 | 49 | 26 | 0.285 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 0.320 | 2 | 23 | 27 | 2 | 0.366 |
Oberste, Matt | 285 | 237 | 53 | 89 | 60 | 0.376 | 56 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 148 | 0.624 | 2 | 25 | 32 | 15 | 0.457 |
Lorenzana, Hector | 268 | 233 | 33 | 65 | 42 | 0.279 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 85 | 0.365 | 3 | 21 | 26 | 5 | 0.347 |
Carey, Garrett | 239 | 203 | 32 | 57 | 23 | 0.281 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 81 | 0.399 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 15 | 0.351 |
Mayfield, Jack | 298 | 262 | 55 | 68 | 35 | 0.260 | 46 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 105 | 0.401 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 14 | 0.323 |
Aikin, Craig | 302 | 244 | 41 | 71 | 23 | 0.291 | 63 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 82 | 0.336 | 2 | 32 | 29 | 5 | 0.382 |
White, Max | 286 | 249 | 53 | 78 | 32 | 0.313 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 103 | 0.414 | 1 | 17 | 36 | 10 | 0.375 |
Alspaugh, Taylor | 38 | 33 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0.182 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.212 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.289 |
Carpenter, Kolbey | 215 | 196 | 18 | 52 | 24 | 0.265 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 72 | 0.367 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 0.297 |
Grand Total | 2139 | 1829 | 309 | 535 | 266 | 0.293 | 403 | 89 | 15 | 28 | 738 | 0.403 | 17 | 153 | 250 | 67 | 0.363 |
Player Name | PA | GPA | BABIP | BB/K | BB% | K% | RC |
Hermelyn, Anthony | 208 | 0.245 | 0.327 | 0.85 | 11% | 13% | 23 |
Oberste, Matt | 285 | 0.362 | 0.392 | 0.78 | 9% | 11% | 72 |
Lorenzana, Hector | 268 | 0.247 | 0.303 | 0.81 | 8% | 10% | 30 |
Carey, Garrett | 239 | 0.258 | 0.303 | 0.35 | 4% | 11% | 31 |
Mayfield, Jack | 298 | 0.246 | 0.266 | 0.41 | 4% | 10% | 34 |
Aikin, Craig | 302 | 0.256 | 0.327 | 1.10 | 11% | 10% | 37 |
White, Max | 286 | 0.272 | 0.350 | 0.47 | 6% | 13% | 43 |
Alspaugh, Taylor | 38 | 0.183 | 0.214 | 1.00 | 13% | 13% | 2 |
Carpenter, Kolbey | 215 | 0.225 | 0.318 | 0.23 | 4% | 19% | 22 |
Grand Total | 2139 | 0.264 | 0.321 | 0.61 | 7% | 12% | 289 |
LSU Projected Starting Lineup (not in order)
Player Name | PA | AB | R | H | RBI | BA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | TB | Slug % | DP | BB | HBP | OBP | K |
Bregman | 296 | 265 | 58 | 102 | 51 | 0.385 | 72 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 151 | 0.570 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 0.432 | 21 |
Katz | 276 | 230 | 52 | 87 | 68 | 0.378 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 150 | 0.652 | 6 | 37 | 5 | 0.467 | 37 |
Rhymes | 275 | 238 | 51 | 81 | 46 | 0.340 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 109 | 0.458 | 15 | 27 | 5 | 0.411 | 29 |
Laird | 260 | 223 | 46 | 64 | 17 | 0.287 | 57 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 72 | 0.323 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 0.355 | 29 |
Ibarra | 255 | 209 | 34 | 68 | 39 | 0.325 | 45 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 103 | 0.493 | 4 | 34 | 7 | 0.433 | 33 |
Ross | 229 | 194 | 24 | 41 | 29 | 0.211 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 53 | 0.273 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 0.291 | 23 |
Jones | 220 | 187 | 39 | 53 | 29 | 0.283 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 78 | 0.417 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 0.382 | 42 |
McMullen | 196 | 160 | 24 | 53 | 30 | 0.331 | 33 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 78 | 0.488 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 0.413 | 23 |
Stevenson | 133 | 109 | 21 | 20 | 13 | 0.183 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0.211 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 0.288 | 21 |
Grand Total | 2140 | 1815 | 349 | 569 | 322 | 0.313 | 417 | 98 | 12 | 42 | 817 | 0.450 | 46 | 225 | 38 | 0.395 | 258 |
Player Name | PA | GPA | BABIP | BB/K | BB% | K% | RC |
Bregman | 296 | 0.337 | 0.395 | 1.10 | 8% | 7% | 67 |
Katz | 276 | 0.373 | 0.396 | 1.00 | 13% | 13% | 70 |
Rhymes | 275 | 0.299 | 0.367 | 0.93 | 10% | 11% | 43 |
Laird | 260 | 0.240 | 0.328 | 0.79 | 9% | 11% | 26 |
Ibarra | 255 | 0.318 | 0.360 | 1.03 | 13% | 13% | 47 |
Ross | 229 | 0.199 | 0.222 | 0.91 | 9% | 10% | 17 |
Jones | 220 | 0.276 | 0.338 | 0.67 | 13% | 19% | 33 |
McMullen | 196 | 0.308 | 0.357 | 0.91 | 11% | 12% | 36 |
Stevenson | 133 | 0.182 | 0.218 | 0.52 | 8% | 16% | 8 |
Grand Total | 2140 | 0.290 | 0.341 | 0.87 | 11% | 12% | 336 |
Oklahoma has a good lineup, but it's not the most intimidating lineup on paper. Matt Oberste leads the way for Oklahoma offensively. He leads in almost every major category and has the highest RC stat in this super regional with 72. Max White is the next best hitter for the Sooners with an RC stat of 43, 0.313 batting average, and 0.375 on base percentage. White doesn't dominate the way Oberste does, but he gets on base at a good clip and hits for decent power. OU has everyone contributing offensively with only one potential bad spot in the lineup with Taylor Alspaugh, who has not played much this season but is a projected starter. They don't have high walk or strikeout rates, so they put the ball in play and force the defense to get them out. Overall, OU has a balanced lineup, but it is not anything LSU has not seen before.
LSU does have the stronger lineup in most categories, but OU has the best starting pitching staff that LSU has faced in a series. LSU needs the heart of the lineup in Bregman/Katz/Rhymes/Ibarra to create offense like they are capable of doing, and get support from the typically less productive parts of the lineup (Ross and Stevenson). If LSU can create chances against Gray and Overton, they may be able to get into OU's bullpen, which LSU could do some real damage to.
Bullpen
OU Bullpen
Player Name | IP | AB | H | OBA | R | ER | ERA | 2B | 3B | HR | BABIP | K | BB | HBP | OBP% | WHIP | K/BB | R/G | K% | BB% | H % |
Garza, Jr., Ralph | 58.0 | 208 | 52 | 0.250 | 22 | 18 | 2.79 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0.298 | 38 | 23 | 13 | 0.361 | 1.293 | 1.7 | 3.41 | 16% | 15% | 21% |
Evans, Jacob | 52.0 | 182 | 36 | 0.198 | 13 | 10 | 1.73 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.239 | 41 | 9 | 6 | 0.259 | 0.865 | 4.6 | 2.25 | 21% | 8% | 18% |
Waltrip, Billy | 36.7 | 143 | 39 | 0.273 | 30 | 21 | 5.15 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0.392 | 45 | 30 | 7 | 0.422 | 1.882 | 1.5 | 7.36 | 25% | 21% | 22% |
Carnes, Ethan | 36.7 | 144 | 42 | 0.292 | 21 | 18 | 4.42 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.356 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0.329 | 1.336 | 3.7 | 5.15 | 17% | 5% | 28% |
Choplick, Adam | 33.7 | 128 | 30 | 0.234 | 23 | 20 | 5.35 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0.315 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 0.347 | 1.396 | 2.1 | 6.15 | 23% | 15% | 20% |
Hayes, Kyle | 28.7 | 110 | 28 | 0.255 | 16 | 10 | 3.14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.318 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 0.349 | 1.395 | 1.8 | 5.02 | 17% | 13% | 22% |
Ladd, Kindle | 24.7 | 100 | 30 | 0.300 | 9 | 9 | 3.28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.354 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0.358 | 1.459 | 2.8 | 3.28 | 16% | 8% | 28% |
Copping, Corey | 15.7 | 57 | 16 | 0.281 | 10 | 10 | 5.74 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.341 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 0.369 | 1.277 | 3.0 | 5.74 | 18% | 12% | 25% |
Tasin, Robert | 13.7 | 55 | 14 | 0.255 | 7 | 5 | 3.29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.318 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0.369 | 1.610 | 1.4 | 4.61 | 17% | 15% | 22% |
Grand Total | 299.7 | 1127 | 287 | 0.255 | 151 | 121 | 3.63 | 48 | 4 | 9 | 0.319 | 247 | 116 | 45 | 0.348 | 1.345 | 2.1 | 4.54 | 19% | 13% | 22% |
LSU Bullpen
Player Name | IP | AB | H | OBA | R | ER | ERA | 2B | 3B | HR | BABIP | K | BB | HBP | OBP% | WHIP | K/BB | R/G | K% | BB% | H % |
Bonvillain | 45.7 | 158 | 30 | 0.190 | 16 | 14 | 2.76 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.238 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0.330 | 1.161 | 1.5 | 3.15 | 17% | 17% | 15% |
Cotton | 42.0 | 146 | 24 | 0.164 | 8 | 6 | 1.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.220 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0.180 | 0.643 | 15.0 | 1.71 | 30% | 2% | 16% |
Bourgeois | 32.0 | 113 | 26 | 0.230 | 10 | 8 | 2.25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.313 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 0.331 | 1.188 | 2.7 | 2.81 | 24% | 13% | 19% |
Rumbelow | 30.3 | 107 | 23 | 0.215 | 12 | 12 | 3.56 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.293 | 32 | 15 | 1 | 0.315 | 1.253 | 2.1 | 3.56 | 26% | 13% | 19% |
Newman | 24.7 | 82 | 13 | 0.159 | 10 | 7 | 2.55 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.167 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 0.283 | 0.973 | 1.5 | 3.65 | 16% | 15% | 13% |
LaMarche | 24.7 | 86 | 19 | 0.221 | 10 | 10 | 3.65 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.302 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 0.346 | 1.257 | 2.0 | 3.65 | 23% | 16% | 18% |
McCune | 23.7 | 89 | 23 | 0.258 | 7 | 7 | 2.66 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.311 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0.313 | 1.225 | 2.8 | 2.66 | 17% | 8% | 23% |
Fury | 18.3 | 64 | 14 | 0.219 | 6 | 6 | 2.95 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.271 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0.292 | 0.982 | 4.0 | 2.95 | 22% | 9% | 19% |
Berry | 16.7 | 68 | 17 | 0.250 | 7 | 7 | 3.78 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0.294 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 0.393 | 1.680 | 1.4 | 3.78 | 18% | 19% | 20% |
Grand Total | 258.0 | 913 | 189 | 0.207 | 86 | 77 | 2.69 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 0.264 | 231 | 97 | 36 | 0.305 | 1.109 | 2.4 | 3.00 | 22% | 12% | 18% |
OU has some quality arms in its bullpen, namely Ralph Garza and Jacob Evans. Evans seems to be the best guy out of the pen. Evans keeps guys off the base paths and has a fairly high strike out rate of 21%. Garza looks to be contact pitcher who allows some base runners, but has not given up a whole lot of runs. Either one of these guys appears to be a solid back up if Gray or Overton get in trouble.
However, once you get past Garza and Evens, OU's bullpen is prone to giving up some runs. Every other pitcher in OU's pen has an ERA above 3.00, a WHIP of 1.28+, and a BABIP above 0.310. If LSU can get into OU's bullpen, LSU can potentially do some real damage as long as they put the ball in play and are patient at the plate.
LSU has the advantage in the bullpen. LSU has a lower ERA, batting average against, BABIP, and WHIP. LSU needs to pitch to their ability, and limit walks and runs to OU. As long as our bullpen pitches to its potential, it stands a good chance against OU's lineup. Also, Chris Cotton's numbers continue to get sicker and sicker. K/BB of 15.0, good grief that's awesome.