Stat Breakdown: OU vs. LSU

Starting Pitching - Projected Match-Ups

Game 1

Player Name	IP	AB	H	OBA	R	ER	ERA	2B	3B	HR	BABIP	K	BB	HBP	OBP%	WHIP	K/BB	R/G	K%	BB%	H %	Win	Loss
Gray, Jonathan	119.0	415	78	0.188	25	21	1.59	14	1	1	0.277	138	22	9	0.243	0.840	6.3	1.89	30%	7%	17%	10	2
Nola	109.0	390	76	0.195	28	22	1.82	8	1	4	0.262	111	17	9	0.245	0.853	6.5	2.31	26%	6%	18%	11	0

Game 2

Player Name	IP	AB	H	OBA	R	ER	ERA	2B	3B	HR	BABIP	K	BB	HBP	OBP%	WHIP	K/BB	R/G	K%	BB%	H %	Win	Loss
Overton, Dillon	86.7	332	84	0.253	31	28	2.91	12	1	2	0.319	76	22	5	0.307	1.223	3.5	3.22	20%	7%	23%	9	2
Eades	96.0	364	98	0.269	33	30	2.81	9	3	3	0.332	77	30	8	0.337	1.333	2.6	3.09	19%	9%	24%	8	1

Game 3 (if necessary)

Player Name	IP	AB	H	OBA	R	ER	ERA	2B	3B	HR	BABIP	K	BB	HBP	OBP%	WHIP	K/BB	R/G	K%	BB%	H %	Win	Loss
Fisher, Jake	53.3	203	57	0.281	21	15	2.53	13	0	5	0.351	50	14	7	0.348	1.331	3.6	3.54	22%	9%	25%	3	2
Glenn	82.0	299	70	0.234	28	23	2.52	10	0	1	0.263	37	16	13	0.301	1.049	2.3	3.07	11%	9%	21%	7	2

The game that has every LSU and OU baseball fan drooling is the game 1 match up of Aaron Nola versus Jonathan Gray. Gray beats Nola in most statistically categories, but the numbers are so close that it's really a push between the two statistically. Gray has great velocity with his fastball and often reaches triple digits. Gray also possesses a nasty slider that he can use to keep batters off balance. Nola's velocity is not as good as Gray's, but he has excellent command of his fastball, a great change up, and hard to hit breaking ball. Honestly, this match up will come down to who is having a better day on the mound and which team can scrape together some runs.

Statistically, Ryan Eades and Dillon Overton are pretty much the same person. Neither one has a real advantage in one particular category. Eades does have more walks and hit batters than Overton, so Overton might have slightly better control than Eades. Both guys allow batters to reach base. Their BABIPs are both above .300 and both have WHIPs of 1.20+. Again, it will come down to who is having the better day on the mound and which team can have the better day at the plate.

If there is a game 3, then LSU holds an advantage in starting pitching. Cody Glenn does a better job of keeping guys off the base paths than Jake Fisher, which is apparent in his lower BABIP and WHIP. Fisher is more of a strikeout guy with a 22% strikeout rate. Glenn is prone to control issues, so if LSU wants to win Game 3 it will need Glenn to be on his A game.

Offense

Oklahoma Projected Starting Lineup (not in order)

Player Name	PA	AB	R	H	RBI	BA	1B	2B	3B	HR	TB	Slug %	DP	BB	K	HBP	OBP
Hermelyn, Anthony	208	172	18	49	26	0.285	43	6	0	0	55	0.320	2	23	27	2	0.366
Oberste, Matt	285	237	53	89	60	0.376	56	18	4	11	148	0.624	2	25	32	15	0.457
Lorenzana, Hector	268	233	33	65	42	0.279	50	12	1	2	85	0.365	3	21	26	5	0.347
Carey, Garrett	239	203	32	57	23	0.281	41	11	2	3	81	0.399	1	9	26	15	0.351
Mayfield, Jack	298	262	55	68	35	0.260	46	14	1	7	105	0.401	4	12	29	14	0.323
Aikin, Craig	302	244	41	71	23	0.291	63	5	3	0	82	0.336	2	32	29	5	0.382
White, Max	286	249	53	78	32	0.313	61	12	2	3	103	0.414	1	17	36	10	0.375
Alspaugh, Taylor	38	33	6	6	1	0.182	5	1	0	0	7	0.212	1	5	5	0	0.289
Carpenter, Kolbey	215	196	18	52	24	0.265	38	10	2	2	72	0.367	1	9	40	1	0.297
Grand Total	2139	1829	309	535	266	0.293	403	89	15	28	738	0.403	17	153	250	67	0.363

Player Name	PA	GPA	BABIP	BB/K	BB%	K%	RC
Hermelyn, Anthony	208	0.245	0.327	0.85	11%	13%	23
Oberste, Matt	285	0.362	0.392	0.78	9%	11%	72
Lorenzana, Hector	268	0.247	0.303	0.81	8%	10%	30
Carey, Garrett	239	0.258	0.303	0.35	4%	11%	31
Mayfield, Jack	298	0.246	0.266	0.41	4%	10%	34
Aikin, Craig	302	0.256	0.327	1.10	11%	10%	37
White, Max	286	0.272	0.350	0.47	6%	13%	43
Alspaugh, Taylor	38	0.183	0.214	1.00	13%	13%	2
Carpenter, Kolbey	215	0.225	0.318	0.23	4%	19%	22
Grand Total	2139	0.264	0.321	0.61	7%	12%	289

LSU Projected Starting Lineup (not in order)

Player Name	PA	AB	R	H	RBI	BA	1B	2B	3B	HR	TB	Slug %	DP	BB	HBP	OBP	K
Bregman	296	265	58	102	51	0.385	72	17	7	6	151	0.570	8	23	3	0.432	21
Katz	276	230	52	87	68	0.378	56	14	2	15	150	0.652	6	37	5	0.467	37
Rhymes	275	238	51	81	46	0.340	62	14	1	4	109	0.458	15	27	5	0.411	29
Laird	260	223	46	64	17	0.287	57	6	1	0	72	0.323	6	23	1	0.355	29
Ibarra	255	209	34	68	39	0.325	45	17	0	6	103	0.493	4	34	7	0.433	33
Ross	229	194	24	41	29	0.211	35	3	0	3	53	0.273	3	21	2	0.291	23
Jones	220	187	39	53	29	0.283	38	10	0	5	78	0.417	3	28	3	0.382	42
McMullen	196	160	24	53	30	0.331	33	17	1	2	78	0.488	0	21	7	0.413	23
Stevenson	133	109	21	20	13	0.183	19	0	0	1	23	0.211	1	11	5	0.288	21
Grand Total	2140	1815	349	569	322	0.313	417	98	12	42	817	0.450	46	225	38	0.395	258

Player Name	PA	GPA	BABIP	BB/K	BB%	K%	RC
Bregman	296	0.337	0.395	1.10	8%	7%	67
Katz	276	0.373	0.396	1.00	13%	13%	70
Rhymes	275	0.299	0.367	0.93	10%	11%	43
Laird	260	0.240	0.328	0.79	9%	11%	26
Ibarra	255	0.318	0.360	1.03	13%	13%	47
Ross	229	0.199	0.222	0.91	9%	10%	17
Jones	220	0.276	0.338	0.67	13%	19%	33
McMullen	196	0.308	0.357	0.91	11%	12%	36
Stevenson	133	0.182	0.218	0.52	8%	16%	8
Grand Total	2140	0.290	0.341	0.87	11%	12%	336

Oklahoma has a good lineup, but it's not the most intimidating lineup on paper. Matt Oberste leads the way for Oklahoma offensively. He leads in almost every major category and has the highest RC stat in this super regional with 72. Max White is the next best hitter for the Sooners with an RC stat of 43, 0.313 batting average, and 0.375 on base percentage. White doesn't dominate the way Oberste does, but he gets on base at a good clip and hits for decent power. OU has everyone contributing offensively with only one potential bad spot in the lineup with Taylor Alspaugh, who has not played much this season but is a projected starter. They don't have high walk or strikeout rates, so they put the ball in play and force the defense to get them out. Overall, OU has a balanced lineup, but it is not anything LSU has not seen before.

LSU does have the stronger lineup in most categories, but OU has the best starting pitching staff that LSU has faced in a series. LSU needs the heart of the lineup in Bregman/Katz/Rhymes/Ibarra to create offense like they are capable of doing, and get support from the typically less productive parts of the lineup (Ross and Stevenson). If LSU can create chances against Gray and Overton, they may be able to get into OU's bullpen, which LSU could do some real damage to.

Bullpen

OU Bullpen

Player Name	IP	AB	H	OBA	R	ER	ERA	2B	3B	HR	BABIP	K	BB	HBP	OBP%	WHIP	K/BB	R/G	K%	BB%	H %
Garza, Jr., Ralph	58.0	208	52	0.250	22	18	2.79	7	0	2	0.298	38	23	13	0.361	1.293	1.7	3.41	16%	15%	21%
Evans, Jacob	52.0	182	36	0.198	13	10	1.73	5	0	3	0.239	41	9	6	0.259	0.865	4.6	2.25	21%	8%	18%
Waltrip, Billy	36.7	143	39	0.273	30	21	5.15	8	1	1	0.392	45	30	7	0.422	1.882	1.5	7.36	25%	21%	22%
Carnes, Ethan	36.7	144	42	0.292	21	18	4.42	4	1	0	0.356	26	7	1	0.329	1.336	3.7	5.15	17%	5%	28%
Choplick, Adam	33.7	128	30	0.234	23	20	5.35	6	2	1	0.315	35	17	5	0.347	1.396	2.1	6.15	23%	15%	20%
Hayes, Kyle	28.7	110	28	0.255	16	10	3.14	6	0	0	0.318	22	12	4	0.349	1.395	1.8	5.02	17%	13%	22%
Ladd, Kindle	24.7	100	30	0.300	9	9	3.28	4	0	1	0.354	17	6	3	0.358	1.459	2.8	3.28	16%	8%	28%
Copping, Corey	15.7	57	16	0.281	10	10	5.74	4	0	1	0.341	12	4	4	0.369	1.277	3.0	5.74	18%	12%	25%
Tasin, Robert	13.7	55	14	0.255	7	5	3.29	4	0	0	0.318	11	8	2	0.369	1.610	1.4	4.61	17%	15%	22%
Grand Total	299.7	1127	287	0.255	151	121	3.63	48	4	9	0.319	247	116	45	0.348	1.345	2.1	4.54	19%	13%	22%

LSU Bullpen

Player Name	IP	AB	H	OBA	R	ER	ERA	2B	3B	HR	BABIP	K	BB	HBP	OBP%	WHIP	K/BB	R/G	K%	BB%	H %
Bonvillain	45.7	158	30	0.190	16	14	2.76	5	0	0	0.238	34	23	11	0.330	1.161	1.5	3.15	17%	17%	15%
Cotton	42.0	146	24	0.164	8	6	1.29	3	1	2	0.220	45	3	0	0.180	0.643	15.0	1.71	30%	2%	16%
Bourgeois	32.0	113	26	0.230	10	8	2.25	3	0	1	0.313	32	12	5	0.331	1.188	2.7	2.81	24%	13%	19%
Rumbelow	30.3	107	23	0.215	12	12	3.56	3	1	1	0.293	32	15	1	0.315	1.253	2.1	3.56	26%	13%	19%
Newman	24.7	82	13	0.159	10	7	2.55	3	0	2	0.167	16	11	4	0.283	0.973	1.5	3.65	16%	15%	13%
LaMarche	24.7	86	19	0.221	10	10	3.65	3	0	0	0.302	24	12	5	0.346	1.257	2.0	3.65	23%	16%	18%
McCune	23.7	89	23	0.258	7	7	2.66	3	2	0	0.311	17	6	2	0.313	1.225	2.8	2.66	17%	8%	23%
Fury	18.3	64	14	0.219	6	6	2.95	3	0	1	0.271	16	4	3	0.292	0.982	4.0	2.95	22%	9%	19%
Berry	16.7	68	17	0.250	7	7	3.78	5	0	2	0.294	15	11	5	0.393	1.680	1.4	3.78	18%	19%	20%
Grand Total	258.0	913	189	0.207	86	77	2.69	31	4	9	0.264	231	97	36	0.305	1.109	2.4	3.00	22%	12%	18%

OU has some quality arms in its bullpen, namely Ralph Garza and Jacob Evans. Evans seems to be the best guy out of the pen. Evans keeps guys off the base paths and has a fairly high strike out rate of 21%. Garza looks to be contact pitcher who allows some base runners, but has not given up a whole lot of runs. Either one of these guys appears to be a solid back up if Gray or Overton get in trouble.

However, once you get past Garza and Evens, OU's bullpen is prone to giving up some runs. Every other pitcher in OU's pen has an ERA above 3.00, a WHIP of 1.28+, and a BABIP above 0.310. If LSU can get into OU's bullpen, LSU can potentially do some real damage as long as they put the ball in play and are patient at the plate.

LSU has the advantage in the bullpen. LSU has a lower ERA, batting average against, BABIP, and WHIP. LSU needs to pitch to their ability, and limit walks and runs to OU. As long as our bullpen pitches to its potential, it stands a good chance against OU's lineup. Also, Chris Cotton's numbers continue to get sicker and sicker. K/BB of 15.0, good grief that's awesome.