New here? This is how we figure out ATVSQBPI
The greatest day of upheaval in college football history didn't really show up in the ATVSQBPI metric, mainly because we tend to track the Heisman contenders around the nation. So on a day of massive upsets, it's pretty likely we're not going to see guys breaking the scale, as the guys we were tracking were the ones who tended to end up losing.
Our weekly chart doesn't even hint at the crazy weekend we had:
The top four QB's we track are all from the SEC this week, and four were big winners. We'll take them one at a time:
Nick Marshall leads the way, of course, guiding Auburn to a thorough ass-kicking of the One True Tigers. His 10.16 is above his season average because if it wasn't, he'd be the best QB ever, but not to an unreasonable degree. This was a good QB having an even better game.
Dak Prescott continues to force his way into the Heisman race, as the nation steadfastly ignores Josh Robinson's 7.49 average and back-to-back 100 yard rushing games in the SEC despite getting 16 and 17 carries, respectively. Prescott gets a huge boost from the touchdown bonuses built in the formula, going from a 7.0 average to 9.08. Prescott scored a bunch and didn't the turn ball over. That's usually a recipe for success.
Bo Wallace bounced back from a 4.50 performance against Memphis to post an 8.17 ATVSQBPI against a much tougher defense. How did he do it? By uncharacteristically taking care of the football. Dr. Bo has 7 turnovers on the season, but he had a clean sheet against Bama. In fact, Dr. Bo does not have a single turnover in SEC play, which is how he's one of the rare quarterbacks with a higher ATVSQBPI in conference play than over the entire season. Either Dr. Bo suddenly learned ball security, or he had the single greatest game of his life. Place your bets accordingly.
Hutson Mason played Vandy. So does it really count?
I should point out Jeff Driskel posted a negative ATVSQBPI and his team still won. Mainly because Justin Worley had a 1.52. In a battle of horrible QB play, we are all losers, but only Tennessee gets the official loss.
I know we said we'd never mention it again, but if you don't know I'm a compulsive liar at this point, well, that's your own fault. Actually, I didn't plan on bringing it up again, but Anthony Jennings rocketed his way back into the conversation again by Brandon Harris' performance. It wasn't a disaster, and certainly it as no NMSU, but Harris did not look good out there. I think we're drifting closer to a situation in which Jennings plays the first quarter and then Harris comes off the bench like a relief pitcher. That noise you hear is a hundred thousand LSU fans simultaneously throwing up in their mouths.
We move from our season averages to the more reliable conference numbers. This throws out all of the big numbers people post against Directional State, but it is still quite volatile given how few conference games most teams have played. It's a coin toss as to which number is more reliable at this point, but we got to make the switch some time, and now seems like a good time to do it.
Speaking of which, I think I'm getting pranked by ORtigerfan on this chart. He included Patton Robinette for reasons which pass understanding, or maybe because it's funny. Yes, he has an 11.14 ATVSQBPI. He also has a grand total of 5 passing attempts. Pay no attention to his huge number, it is the ultimate trick of the sample size.
Brett Hundley, on the other hand, is no fluke. He put up an absurd 17.00 against Arizona St, only to come back to earth against Utah. He didn't have a bad game, just not a great one. It still likely puts a huge damper on his Heisman chances on the simple grounds that Heisman contenders should not lose to Utah. He faces down Marcus Mariota next, speaking of people who lost games they shouldn't have, in what could be a Heisman elimination game. Life isn't fair.
LSU's defense is still somehow below the SEC mean, due to its ability to absolutely destroy terrible teams while getting housed by good ones. The LSU defense has posted an ATVSDPI above 8 in both of its conference games, which is terrible. Hell, not even South Carolina's defense has reached those depths.
No one in the SEC is too far under the mean except for Ole Miss, who are now lapping the field. To put in perspective how great their defense has been playing, this weekend was their worst performance of the season. The 4.75 ATVSDPI Ole Miss posted against Bama is still below the SEC average, and is a full yard worse than their second worst game, the 3.56 they posted against Bama. I was skeptical of Bo Wallace's numbers above, so before our Ole Miss trolls accuse me of hopeless bias clouding my analysis, let me say this: the Rebels defense is for real. It is the best defense in the conference, and it may not be close.
The only defense even in the ballpark is Baylor, who got a chance to strengthen their numbers by playing an anemic Texas offense. Their defense might be a bit of mirage, as they played SMU, but they get a chance to prove their mettle next week against TCU. It's put up or shut up time for the Bears defense.