ATVSQBPI Is Getting Ready for Bama

We took a few weeks off from looking at the ATVSQBPI, so now we should have a pretty good idea where everyone truly stands. The early season outliers have been brought back to the pack, and you pretty much are what your numbers say you are at this point in this year. So where are we?

Umm... Brandon Harris is the #1 quarterback in the SEC! Of course, it's only on 44 pass attempts, only one of which has come in the last month. But other than that, #1 baby! So, other than Mr. Small Sample Size ruining the scale, Blake Sims is our overall SEC leader by a healthy margin, just as we all predicted in August. Bama has played two teams which are currently ranked, and Simms went 6.72 against WVU and 5.95 against Ole Miss. After I just said you are what the numbers say you are, Bama's schedule is so back-loaded that it could be disguising Sims' true quality.

Dak's Heisman campaign continues, but let's be honest, Marcus Mariota is running away with this thing, statistically speaking. Mariota has only dipped below a 7.0 ATVSQBPI in one game, Oregon's mystifying loss to Arizona (6.22). Also, his numbers are propped up by an outstanding 33-4 TD to turnover ratio. He scores a lot, and he doesn't turn the ball over at all. Connor Cook appears to be keeping pace, but that's only because he posted huge numbers against bad teams. In conference play (INSERT BIG TEN JOKE HERE), he's still been good, but he's at an 8.05, barely ahead of Dak and behind the surprising Nick Marshall. Speaking of Nick...

Marshall is right up there with a guy who played Navy and Mariota's best game of the season. A metric shit ton of luck went in to Auburn's win over Ole Miss, but Marshall did out-duel Dr. Bo 11.06 to 8.00. Wallace's numbers only go up to 8.56 if we delete that ill-advised fumble and 8.93 if we also add back in Treadwell's touchdown. So even without the most depressing play in Ole Miss history, Wallace still loses the QB battle (though Ole Miss would have then won the game, so I doubt he would care all that much).

I know Wallace suddenly becoming a responsible QB who doesn't turn over the ball is a truly shocking development, as is Dak Prescott becoming a Heisman candidate. But flying under the radar in the whole universe of "what the hell is going on here?" quarterback performances, is Nick Marshall suddenly becoming, well, terrific. He was terrible against Mississippi State, but even with that dog, Marshall has a higher ATVSQBPI in conference play than out of it. Four of his five best games according to ATVSQBPI were in SEC play. It was like the quarterback fairy showed up at his dorm room in October, and there's been no looking back.

Let's not pretend that LSU and Alabama are reprising 2011 next weekend, but their defenses do rank among the SEC's best units according to ATVSDPI. Ole Miss still is lapping the pack, despite an ugly 8.36 rating against Auburn, the sole black mark of the season. Bama has rolled bad teams, but again, the two ranked teams gave them fits: 6.07 by WVU and 6.92 by OM. It's at least worth questioning how good they really are. LSU got lit up even worse in their two losses, 8.19 and 8.04, but LSU has been outstanding in every other game. LSU's season average is a 4.56, and the team has posted a mark below that in every game other than those two losses and the opener (5.13 v. Wisconsin). Those two maulings make the unit look a lot worse than it really is.

Both LSU and Bama get the chance to prove it this week.