FanPost

ATVS QBPI: Oct. 26, 2015

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports


We've got two months of football behind us, enough time for some meaningful numbers. Since Poseur is extra busy with dad-duty on top of compiling billable hours and ORtiger has skipped the country, I thought I'd run the numbers according to the ATVSQBPI formula (patent pending) and see what we get. Some quick notes:

1. I don't know how to do graphs. If there is a website that can produce the cool images Poseur normally gives us, let me know and maybe I can use it in the future.

2. I left out South Carolina because the revolving door of Nunez and Orth is confusing. I could combine them for a USC QBPI, or I could do them individually to give a look at both. For now I was too lazy.

3. I left out Florida also because Grier is done and Treon Harris has a pretty small sample size so I'm not sure it's meaningful.

4. This represents total schedule this season. If y'all would rather see vs. conference only, or vs. P5 only, let me know.

5. I threw in Seth Russell for fun because he is tragically done for the year, so I thought we could look at the season he's had. If you want to see other QBs from Clemson or TCU or others Poseur used to throw in, let me know which ones. If you want to see USC or UF anyway, let me know.

12.15 Seth Russell

8.72 Brandon Harris

8.46 Dak Prescott

8.29 Brandon Allen

8.15 Chad Kelly

8.14 Greyson Lambert

7.12 Kyle Allen

6.80 Sean White

6.58 Jake Coker

6.50 Josh Dobbs

5.85 Patrick Towles

5.20 Johnny McCrary

4.06 Drew Lock

Some very quick thoughts here (I'm not pretending to offer the stat-parsing Poseur does):

Baylor is still breaking the scale compared to the SEC QBs. Schedule notwithstanding, the component numbers are crazy. What jumps out at me is 1) he's accounted for a ridiculous amount of TDs (35!) which is really boosting him here, and 2) his attempts is on the low end even compared to the SEC, so he's doing his damage very efficiently. Add those two things together and you get a gaudy number. Baylor runs the ball more than most people probably think.

Brandon Harris leads the SEC! Woohoo!!! His numbers aren't dazzling, but what's got him on top is, to a lesser extent, no turnovers, but mostly it's his few attempts. Other than Sean White, who hasn't played every game for Auburn, Harris is calling his own number less than any other QB in the league. A bit like Seth Russell, his damage is efficient. When I see his numbers compared to say, Chad Kelly or Dak Prescott, what jumps out at me is that while he lacks their flashier numbers, he doesn't NEED to be doing a lot, and that's because we are literally lapping the field in the running game. Most of these high-powered offenses feature a machine gun QB out of necessity. We feature a canon out of luxury....it doesn't load and fire often, but when it does, destruction.

Missouri. Ugh.

Greyson Lambert doesn't have the numbers I expect from a Mark Richt QB, but what's keeping him in the upper half of the pack is, like Harris, he's also got way less attempts than I'd have guessed for a Mark Richt QB.

Swag Kelly and Dak Prescott are at the top end of attempts, and that's largely what's keeping their number lower. Their numbers are partially due to sheer volume. As mentioned, they're doing what they're doing on a lot less handing off, and that's probably out of necessity. These guys have to chuck it 30+ times per game. And in Kelly's case, he's a turnover machine. If he had less troubles there, he'd be sitting atop the SEC.

I mentioned these numbers represent all games (cupcakes included), and I haven't looked, but offhand my guess is that Harris may look even better compared to the rest of the league in conference or P5 games only.

EDIT: Here are the ATVSQBPI numbers in SEC play only:

8.37 Brandon Harris
7.47 Dak Prescott
7.04 Brandon Allen (tie)
7.04 Greyson Lambert (tie)
6.51 Sean White
6.41 Josh Dobbs
6.32 Jake Coker
6.15 Kyle Allen
5.99 Chad Kelly
5.55 Patrick Towles
3.64 Johnny McCrary
3.57 Drew Lock

Harris is still the king, by a wider margin this time. Dak is still his main competition, though the margin is nearly a full yard per play now.

Chad Kelly drops from 4th best to 4th worst. He takes the biggest hit here. I didn’t keep the raw data split out, but off the top of my head, his total yards in the SEC just aren’t all that, and more glaring is his TD’s accounted for dips way down, but he still keeps all the TO’s. He drops over 2 ypp here…..ouch.

Next hardest hit are Prescott and Brandon Allen. They retain their position in the standings but they lose ~ 1ypp. So does Greyson Lambert, who actually ties Brandon Allen for 3rd place now. Kyle Allen also loses about a yard per play in conference.

The rest all dip, but not by too much. They are who they are no matter who they play, I guess.