ATVSQBPI Says Week 11 Was Rough

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Let's use ATVSQBPI to take an updated look around the league. But first, here's a primer on what this formula is and how it works, if you need a refresher. If you don't want to read all that, just know that it's basically a modified yards per attempt for quarterbacks, and it doesn't attempt to measure how good a QB is, but rather only what happens when his number is called. If his line lets him down or his receivers drop passes, ATVSQBPI doesn't care. It just shows what the team got out of the ball being placed in his hands.

Let's start with this past week, and let me warn you, week 11 was rough on everybody. I've been digging through some of Poseur's old posts from previous years, and these numbers are almost universally dismal, with the exception of Drew Lock, who rose from the depths of ineptitude to play the game of his life against BYU.

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Brandon Harris actually turned in probably his best pure volume line of his short career, with 21 of 35 for 271. I see that comp/att ratio a fair amount, even in the same number range, from guys like Brees and Manning and Luck. Of course, when one of those guys hits 21/35, you usually expect them to break the 300 mark and hopefully have multiple TDs. But Harris did come close on the yards. Unfortunately for Harris, he was sacked into oblivion, committed 2 turnovers, and didn't account for much in the way of TDs. The forgettable QBPI here in light of a decent stat line goes to show that nobody looks good when an offensive line goes AWOL and the running game vanishes with it. Recover those elements, a team doesn't tee off on you so much and some of the elements that drag his score down here likely go away as well. Harris and Fournette should be giving Pocic and company wedgies for the rest of this week.

Drew Lock ate his spinach and went Popeye on the Cougars, posting the best performance of any SEC qb this week, and this after an utterly pathetic season thus far. Seriously. Wait til you see his season numbers. Then look at this. Then back to the season numbers. Then back to me.... (/old spice commercial)

And because it's bizarro-world, the other big winner this week is Kyle Shurmur, who plays for Vanderbilt, because I know you don't know who that is. After 10 weeks of derp from likely former qb McCrary, the backup Shurmur got the nod this week and proceeded to lap Vandy's previous output by a mile. I mean, it was Kentucky, but still. A 7.7 for Vandy looked impossible just a week ago.

Sean White....LOLZ. Hey, I know it's not polite to publicly relish the misery of others, but 1) screw Auburn, 2) screw them again for using two QBs this year and making me run numbers for them twice. White posted a MINUS SIX, which I didn't know was possible, but he managed it. Heisman hopeful Jeremy Johnson didn't fare a lot better with a miserable 2.14, but I suppose compared to White he looked like Joe Montana.

Dak Prescott also had a rough day at the office vs. Alabama, posting a paltry 4.12. I didn't keep the individual stats split out where I can look at them quickly now, but iirc, his volume numbers were decent, like Harris, but also like Harris he was ultimately ineffective at generating points. Plus he got sacked 9 times and had a few more TFL to boot, a record for a Saban team.

Towles at Kentucky posted a 1.85. Yeesh. He's bad this year, but this is a real low, even for him. As it turns out, Vandy's D is nothing to sneeze at, as we'll see below.

Kyler Murray now appears to be Texas A&M's new QB, but his stats are utterly worthless at this point, since he beat up on a scrub this week, and just as a warning, his season stats below are nearly equally worthless since he also played SEC scrubs in his previous couple of starts.

Greyson Lambert continues to be not what I expect from a Mark Richt QB. Like almost everybody else, he had an appreciably worse week this past weekend than his season average.

How bad was the SEC this week? Trevone Boykin had a miserable game, getting hurt and pulled early, and still posted a number equal or better than the majority of the SEC qbs. Week 11 hates the SEC.

So now let's see the season-long numbers. These are conference only, because ATVSQBPI should not be forced to care how you do against Southwest Bagdad's School of Dentistry for Nuns.

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As you can see, most are decidedly "meh" in conference play. In previous seasons we've tended to see more extremes, with top tier QBs with better averages and dregs with lower averages. There's just a couple guys really bad here, and most are just "not great." These two charts together really show how badly the QBs struggled this week compared to their averages, with the notable exceptions of Vandy and Mizzou.

Two games ago Brandon Harris was the king of the conference with a 8.37 in conference play. Two shellackings later, he's still near the top of conference play, but he's been knocked down a full 1.39 ypa. Some random comparisons: at about this point in the season in 2012, Zach Mettenberger had a conference-play average of 3.63. In 2013, Mett had a 9.67 at the halfway mark, and finished 2013 with a 7.7, a mark Harris should easily retake if the offensive line and running game do him even a few small favors over the last two weeks.

Elsewhere, for all the hype Trevone Boykin generates--much of it warranted--OU's Baker Mayfield is nipping at his heels. And with Seth Russell done, I thought somebody should get the honor of breaking our scale, so WKU's Brandon Doughty gets the honor. He plays in Conference USA, so take that however you will. I threw him in just for fun because we played him and I thought I'd see how he looks when the talent around him is more equal to the opponent.

Swag Kelly must've had a fantastic few games since my last post. He was sitting on a conference average of a meager 5.99, now he's up at 7.19. Playing Arkansas will do wonders for your rating, I guess. Oh, wait.......

Defense is next, conference play only:

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There's some definite surprises in here for me. LSU isn't one of them, but quickly I'll note that 1) LSU is worse than about this point of the 2013 season, 2) LSU is 0.11 ypp better here than Auburn's sneaky good defense. That's right, LSU is only 4 inches per play different than Auburn. Auburn. There are, in fact, very few defenses in the SEC who are NOT outperforming LSU in conference play.

ATVSDPI says Florida, not Alabama, is carrying the SEC banner. However, given the dismal QB play in most of the East, the Gator's numbers here are probably a bit artificially inflated. But still, an even 4.0 is stout. How did they get here? Well, Florida has a good run D, but they have a ridiculous passing TD allowed, great ypa and a ton of INTs. Throwing on them has not gone well for most teams.

News flash, Alabama is also very good, down in the lower half of the coveted 4-5 yd range.

Arkansas is the worst in the league. Feel free to cry. They have an awful passing ypa allowed, they play pretty good run D, but still give up a lot of TDs on the ground.

Georgia and Vanderbilt are the biggest surprises for me. I didn't think either was that good, and like Florida they may benefit from playing in the east, but nevertheless, there they are. UGA allows few passing TDs, and they have a lot of INTs and fumble recoveries. Vanderbilt also excels in fumble recoveries. If you lose the ball, these teams are taking it from you. Vandy also has a salty pass D with a great TD/INT ratio, including only 3 pass TDs allowed in conference play. The run D is not as good, but they still have allowed only 6 rushing TDs, which gives them a boost.

South Carolina does a little bit of everything badly. To use an old Black Adder quote: "It started off badly, trailed off a bit in the middle, and the less said about the ending the better. But other than that...."

Out of conference, it appears Oklahoma can also play defense. And these are not sluggish offenses the Sooners are thwarting. This is that high octane video game limp wristed surf boy stuff of the Big 12. OU could be a real contender if their scores here are any indication.

Lastly, on the subject of defense.....let's do something I don't think ATVSQBPI has ever done. We're LSU fans, so I thought it'd be worth a look to see how quarterbacks fared in their games against LSU. These numbers represent one game only, from different weeks, all vs. LSU. The idea is you can compare them to their season averages above to see if LSU did better or worse than average defending them.

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Let's cut right to it. LSU held Brandon Allen, Jake Coker, Dak Prescott, and Brandon Doughty below their averages, which is good. LSU also let Jeremy Johnson, Treon Harris, and Perry Orth exceed their averages, which is bad. In Orth's case, by a full ypp, and frankly they made Treon Harris look like a rock star compared to his normal self. So basically LSU slows down good quarterbacks and lets bad quarterbacks shine. I'll leave it up to you to discuss the why's and how's and what it all means. ATVSQBPI is just here for the numbers, baby.