ATVSQBPI and a Heisman Dark Horse

We are a little over one month into the season, so we're at the point at which statistics start to make sense. The first few weeks, everything is so out of whack, and can be crewed up by one awesome or awful game, but now we're looking at enough data that the stats are starting to tell us the truth.

This means we can take our first look in to the ATVSQBPI of the season. If you want details on how the ATVSQBPI is calculated, you can enjoy a bunch of math over here. Otherwise, just know that it is modified yards/attempt, including rushing and passing stats for a quarterback.

I don't have any fancy charting software yet, so you're going to have to deal with the way I like to read data: good old fashioned charts. Listed is every SEC quarterback who qualifies for the passing title plus a smattering of national guys. I'd be happy to add anyone to the national watch list we're curious to learn about.

Let's take a deep dive in on some players.

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss
ATVSQBPI 8.585
Conference Only 11.207
Road/Neutral 5.250
Home 9.669

Chad Kelly hasn't played a true road game all season, and the one neutral site game he played, against Florida St, was a bit of a disaster. The formula's increased penalties for interceptions destroyed Kelly's rating in that game, as those three picks dropped him from a 7.846 to a 5.250. Kids, you got to take care of the football. Kelly has since rallied and been the dominant player we thought he would be, but there's at least an open question about his abilities away from home. His next two games are at Arkansas and at LSU, so he has a chance to answer those questions.

Jalen Hurts, Alabama
ATVSQBPI 8.075
Conference Only 8.095
Road/Neutral 8.479
Home 7.758

An almost metronome-like consistency to his game. He isn't spectacular, but his numbers are good across the board. He can beat you any which way. He scores a lot of touchdowns, doesn't turn the ball over, runs fairly well, and completes over 60% passes. He's done well at home, on the road, and both in and out of conference. He's not dominant, nor has he shown any weakness. He is possibly the perfect Alabama quarterback, and we might want to look into see if Saban had him built in a lab off campus.

Trevor Knight, Texas A&M
ATVSQBPI 7.632
Conference Only 7.541
Road/Neutral 7.618
Home 7.646

Knight has been the best runner in the SEC, and there was some discussion in the creation of ATVSQBPI on the impact of running on a player's rating. If we removed Knight's rushing statistics, his ATVSQBPI would drop to 6.767, and about the same in every other situation. Running the ball unquestionably helps his rating, and the formula is not punishing running quarterbacks, but in fact rewarding them, primarily for not throwing picks.

Danny Etling, LSU
ATVSQBPI 6.231
Conference Only 6.279
Road/Neutral 4.237
Home 7.145

Not bad. His numbers are a bit below SEC average, but they are being dragged down by his terrible game in auburn, his first road trip in the SEC. His biggest issue right now is that he doesn't put the ball in the end zone. Four touchdowns in four games is not going to cut it going forward, though we are thrilled that is paired with just one interception. Another thing that jumps out in his numbers is that of his 20 rushes on the season, 11 came against Auburn. That indicates he tucks the ball and panics a bit when things aren't going well. It's better than throwing a pick, but he has to learn how to stand in the pocket and keep slinging it.

On the national front, has anyone noticed how awesome Jake Browning of Washington has been this year so far? His ATVSQBPI is a bit inflated due to the 23 touchdowns he's thrown for versus just 2 interceptions. He did drop a bit of a turd against Arizona, but otherwise, he's been outstanding. He's cleared a 10.0 ATVSQBPI in all of his starts but one.

The September Heisman winner, Lamar Jackson, is close on his heels with an entirely different profile. Jackson actually has more pass attempts than Browning, but he adds in 688 yards rushing and 14 TD's on the ground. He's a dynamic double threat, even if he did struggle against Clemson. Yes, that elusive avoidance of the sack was great, but it was still an incompletion. He threw the ball 44 times and still didn't clear 300 yards. That's not that great, to be honest, but boy... is he fun to watch. And no statistic can measure that.