Last week we took a look at the Other Tigers, those from Auburn using the advanced stats from Football Outsiders. We’ll do exactly the same last week. Last week’s stats did not ring super true, as Auburn got a bunch of big, explosive plays which the stats indicated they had not been doing. Though you could say they were proved right by Auburn only kicking six FG’s. However they did indicate that the men on the Plains were perhaps better than the consensus going around and they showed that. Now we shift focus to another group of Tigers, this group from Missouri.
A note on these stats: The offensive and defensive S&P+ marks are calculated as adjusted scoring averages and for the situational ratings, above 100 is good and below 100 is bad.
S&P+ (Percentile): 36.5% (85th in FBS)
Offensive S&P+: 16.5 (120th in FBS)
Offensive Rushing S&P+: 79.1 (124th in FBS)
Offensive Passing S&P+: 77.7 (118th in FBS)
Defensive S&P+: 19.4 (13th in FBS)
Defensive Rushing S&P+: 120.4 (12th in FBS)
Defensive Passing S&P+: 118.1 (18th in FBS)
So the narrative about Missouri having an abhorrent offense and a nasty defense? Checks out. Drew Lock had some of the worst stats in the history of the SEC last year and he didn’t have anything resembling a run game to help him out. It was horrible in every facet. It saw the Offensive Coordinator Josh Henson get fired. However, things have been looking up a bit this year. The defense, as usual under Gary Pinkel at Missouri, was really, really good. The defensive line was nasty and the defensive backs were solid and benefited from the always great Mizzou pass rush.
Another note: So far, the S&P+ ratings are based quite a bit on what the projections were coming into the season. I’ll also be using F/+, which combines Bill C’s S&P+ and Brian Fremeau’s FEI. Read more about that here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
S&P+ (Percentile): 71.7% (42nd in FBS)
Offensive S&P+: 33.7 (38th in FBS)
Defensive S&P+: 26.1 (43rd in FBS)
FEI: .040 (50th in FBS)
F/+: 12.6% (47th in FBS)
Offensive Success Rate: 43.9% (56th in FBS)
Defensive Success Rate: 26.2% (26th in FBS)
The offense has massively flipped the script. Josh Heupel came in as OC and has helped Drew Lock takes massive steps. Way, way up in virtually every offensive category. The defense though has seemingly fallen off a bit, though their success rate is strong and they’ve gotten key stops at the right times. Overall the stats aren’t particularly spectacular in any area though. Mizzou will definitely pose a threat for LSU, but this is one that the Real Tigers, with the added boost of Coach O’s first home game, should be able to win.