ATVSQBPI Covers Its Eyes

Let’s take a break this week from ranking all of the teams as we’re just beginning to trod the same old ground, and instead focus this week on my favorite toy, ATVSQBPI.

As always, a long explanation of ATVSQBPI can be found here. A short explanation is this: it is modified yards per attempt, including rushing. Every time the QB calls his own number, this is how many yards, on average, he is worth.

Because I like to do as little as possible, I’ve outsourced the actual work of compiling the data to MikeDeTiger. His charts were actually a lot prettier, but a lot gets lost in the publishing tool we use here. Sorry, that’s my bad, ruining a good-looking chart. Anyway, here’s the data:

Because this is our first look-in, let’s take each quarterback and then their defense as well. ATVSDPI is calculated the same as it is for offenses, but it includes all plays and the lower the average, the better. For some extra help, I’ve included each team’s allowed rushing and passing averages per play.

Jake Fromm, Georgia. Jake Fromm State Farm is tearing it up. Most concerning for SEC defenses is that he’s actually much better against Power 5 defenses than his overall season average. He’s not piling up big numbers against bad teams, he’s saving his best performances for teams that matter. He’s scored 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions (7/1 against the Power 5), racking up the bonuses. The defense, similarly, is performing at an elite level. They have the best pass defense in the conference, and are mere fractions behind Alabama’s overall average. Georgia looks legit.

Jarrett Stidham, Auburn. Since the Clemson game, Stidham’s been a dominant starter. Even with that game on the resume, he’s completing over 70 percent of his passes and he’s just shy of 10 yards per attempt. He’s cleared 10 YPA in all three of his SEC starts though admittedly, against three of the worst defenses in the conferences. Speaking of defenses, Auburn’s 3.53 ATVSDPI is nearly a full yard better than the next team, putting them on an island between the top two truly elite defenses and everyone else in the SEC.

Jalen Hurts, Alabama. His ATVSQBPI drops from 9.04 to 7.05 once he plays Power 5 teams. Texas A&M, hardly an elite unit, held him to 6.08. He has only once completed 60 percent of his passes against a Power 5 defense this season. He is a threat to run and his 7/0 TD/INT ratio helps, but he seems clearly to be the exhaust port of the Bama Death Star. Bama’s defense does hold a slight lead over Georgia in ATVSDPI, but they have also forced 13 turnovers, which is likely unsustainable. The defense is great, but it’s not quite as great as it appears right now.

Stephen Johnson, Kentucky. If you had Stephen Johnson as the #4 SEC QB in preseason, come on down and collect your winnings. Then again, 7.00 is the rough line for “good” and the SEC average usually hovers above 6.5. It’s mainly that no one else is all that good, not that he’s been outstanding. Kentucky’s defense has been similarly mediocre, but more in the sense of one hand in boiling water and the other in freezing water. They allow 7.31 yards per pass, which is terrible, and 3.35 per rush, which is great. There’s no way that lasts all year. Either the pass defense will improve or the run defense will collapse from the weight.

Danny Etling, LSU. Yup, he’s fifth in the SEC in Power 5 ATVSQBPI. That gives you an idea how everyone else is doing. He’s been buoyed by some big completions and the fact he hasn’t turned the ball over. He’s been perfectly mediocre so far. The defense is well shy of its usual standards, but it is slightly above average right now. If this were most teams, there would be nothing to complain about on that end.

Jake Bentley, South Carolina. He completes too low of a percentage, and he can’t run at all, but other than that, Bentley has delivered. He’s scoring a lot, and he is gaining gobs of yards. He’s pretty damn inefficient about it, but it’s still production. They also have a highly rated defense, mainly due to forcing 13 turnovers compared to allowing just 6 TD’s. That will likely slide back towards the pack as the season goes on.

Feleipe Franks, Florida. The last of the competent QB’s, and he’s not all that competent. He has played a tough schedule of nothing but Power 5 teams, and the coaching staff has done its best to limit his exposure. With Del Rio’s injury and Zaire being, well, Malik Zaire, he now has the starting job, though he’s only attempted 20 passes in one game so far. The defense hasn’t been horrible, but it hasn’t been much help, either.

Kyle Shurmur, Vanderbilt. To be fair, Vandy has played a bit of a murder’s row in its last four games. On the other hand, he’s been almost comically ineffective. He went 4/15 for 18 yards against Bama. He’s completed 39 of his last 86 pass attempts. That’s not good. The good news is he kept the lights on, didn’t totally implode, and should rebound for much better numbers as he plays worse teams. Same goes for the defense. This is Team Schedule Effect right now.

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M. Since being forced into action against UCLA, he’s gone from cover your eyes terrible to not bad. He even went 19/29 for 237 yards against Bama. It seems he’s gone through his early season crucible and come out on the other side. His numbers should improve, but the Aggies are asking way too much of a freshman quarterback. He’s slinging the ball around a lot. The A&M pass defense is especially terrible, but the whole unit only manages to get to credible on the back of a wildly unsustainable turnover ratio. Collapse is likely coming on that end.

Drew Lock, Missouri. Lock had an outstanding game last week, so there’s signs he can turn this around. But he’s still the guy with a 6/5 TD/INT ratio against Power 5 defenses. He’s throwing for a lot of yards, but his lowest number of attempts in one game has been 28. You simply can’t be that effective completing just 52.6% of your passes. And no one’s impressed that you threw for 521 yards and 7 TD against Southwest Missouri St. The defense is terrible and don’t be fooled by the run defense. It stinks, too. They’ve been victimized for 16 rushing touchdowns.

Austin Allen, Arkansas. So far, he has been the most disappointing player in the conference. He is yet to complete more than 50 percent of his passes in a game against a Power 5 defense. He threw for just 84 yards against South Carolina, which isn’t exactly the 85 Bears. He has thrown a pick in every game except one. Allen has been simply awful this season.

Shea Patterson, Ole Miss. Here is your current leader in SEC passing yards. He has four 300-plus-yard passing games this season and two 400-plus games. So what’s the problem? Well, he throws the ball a lot, so his gaudy yardage total is more a function of not having a running game. He also turns the ball over a ton. He’s got a 4 to 5 TD/INT ratio against Power 5 defenses. Now, he has played the two best teams in the West, so there’s a chance things get better, but I doubt it. Ole Miss’ defense helps out by being the worst in the conference, worth more than 7 adjusted yards per play. You don’t need me to tell you that is awful.

Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi St. Paul, come collect your winnings. While the rest of us spent the preseason and September praising him for being an efficient leader, Paul beat the drums that Fitzgerald was simply a bad quarterback. Early returns are that Paul was right. Fitzgerald had a decent game against LSU, but was turned inside out by Auburn and Georgia. He’s completed 28 of his last 70 pass attempts, and even his statement game against LSU only included 180 passing yards.

Quinten Dormandy, Tennessee. I thought the Vols could have a decent year if they could find decent quarterback play. Spoiler alert: they didn’t. He went 5/16 for 64 yards with two picks against Georgia for the coveted negative ATVSQBPI (-1.76). He’s thrown six picks on the season to six touchdowns. He averaged 6.8 yards per completion, can’t run, and has a dismal completion percentage. It’s the full package of lousy. I have no earthly idea how he has not been benched, if only for his sake.