Last week, LSU was a huge underdog in S&P+ — and in Vegas too — and managed to perform better than expected in a 24-10 loss to Alabama. However, as I mentioned in last week’s Stat Watch, I thought there was a route where LSU could stop Alabama’s run game, which wasn’t as strong in recent years according to the stats, and maybe keep it close. They did do that, but the Tide made the bigger 50/50 plays. Now, LSU must look forward to a game where the stats and Vegas align, but see them as a big favorite against a struggling Arkansas team.
A note on these stats: The offensive and defensive S&P+ marks are calculated as adjusted scoring averages and for the situational ratings, above 100 is good and below 100 is bad. Links to an explanation on the various stats here, here and here:
- S&P+ Percentile: 31.9% (92nd in FBS)
- Offensive S&P+: 30.1 (44th in FBS)
- Offensive Rushing S&P+: 137.6 (4th in FBS)
- Offensive Passing S&P+: 103.5 (58th in FBS)
- Defensive S&P+: 32.7 (106th in FBS)
- Defensive Rushing S&P+: 85.2 (117th in FBS)
- Defensive Passing S&P+: 94.3 (90th in FBS)
- FEI: -.092 (99th in FBS)
- F/+: -23.7% (98th in FBS)
Arkansas is terrible. Just terrible. They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass, they probably couldn’t stop a 20 year old house cat who can’t see out of one eye from clawing them. LSU should be able to run for however many yards they want tomorrow. The one thing they are prolific at is running the football, but an increasingly healthy LSU defensive line that won’t have to worry about the pass as much with Austin Allen probably out should be able to keep that under control. Stranger things have happened, but LSU should comfortably wax this Razorback team.