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Tua and Kyler Break the ATVSQBPI

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Shockingly, another stat shows that they are good quarterbacks

NCAA Football: Alabama at Tennessee
Tua is good.
Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports

The bye week finally afforded me the chance to catch up on the backlog of projects sitting in my inbox and saved drafts, but most importantly, it gave me time to check in on our favorite made up stat: ATVSQBPI.

We don’t want to get bogged down in the details, but ATVSQBPI measures how many modified yards a quarterback is worth each team he calls his own number, whether it be run or pass. ATVSDPI flips the formula to measure how many modified yards a defense is worth per play. If you need a refresher on how it is calculated, start here and then go here.

Simple? OK, let’s check out the numbers.

ATVSQBPI

Player Team YPA Comp % ATVSQBPI P5 YPA P5 Comp% P5 ATVSQBPI
Player Team YPA Comp % ATVSQBPI P5 YPA P5 Comp% P5 ATVSQBPI
Tagovailoa Bama 13.59 70.39% 14.71 13.68 68.80% 15.32
Fromm Georgia 9.59 67.44% 8.94 9.47 65.28% 8.31
Ta'amu Ole Miss 9.78 64.55% 9.1 7.85 58.38% 6.72
SEC Average 8.02 60.89% 7.32 7.54 58.44% 6.55
Guarantano Tennessee 8.04 64.37% 6.97 7.43 63.45% 6.35
Burrow LSU 6.92 53.81% 6.41 6.82 53.41% 6.21
Shurmur Vandy 7.69 60.00% 7.05 7.02 54.01% 6.07
Mond Texas A&M 7.82 59.62% 6.59 7.76 57.82% 6.02
Franks Florida 7.44 57.14% 6.61 7.15 56.10% 5.88
Wilson Kentucky 6.46 65.36% 5.33 6.79 63.64% 5.65
Stidham Auburn 7.29 60.43% 6.03 7.1 61.26% 5.53
Bentley S. Carolina 7.12 61.20% 5.94 6.84 58.44% 5.21
Storey Arkansas 6.87 58.43% 5.74 6.26 58.78% 5.16
Lock Mizzou 7.68 60.57% 7.5 6.15 52.22% 4.66
Fitzgerald MSU 5.97 49.11% 5.64 5.18 46.62% 4.65
Murray Oklahoma 12.72 73.22% 13.18 12.33 72.67% 12.87
Haskins Ohio St 8.89 71.11% 9.23 8.58 69.76% 8.74
Lawrence Clemson 8.47 65.34% 8.75 8.1 65.73% 8.45
Minshew Wazzu 7.69 71.01% 7.91 7.95 71.08% 8.4
Patterson Michigan 8.32 67.21% 8.04 7.92 65.25% 8.1
Book Notre Dame 8.71 76.47% 7.96 8.4 75.18% 7.61

The goggles, they do nothing. Tua is more than doubling the SEC average in ATVSQBPI, and he’s partly responsible for dragging the average up to 6.55. We remove him from the average, Tua is just shy of tripling the other 13 SEC starters. The 26-0 TD-INT ratio certainly doesn’t hurt.

Jake Fromm is the only other SEC quarterback having anything an elite level season. Look, it doesn’t look as impressive next to Tua breaking the scale, but averaging 8.31 yards/play against Power 5 opponents is still an impressive feat. These would be elite numbers in any other year.

Jordan Ta’amu is the only other player to clear the SEC average. He’s been a bit of a bully this year, absolutely torching non-Power 5 opponents, while posting more modest numbers against teams that can punch back. He’s averaging 7.85 yards/attempt against Power 5 opponents, but the modifiers drag him down. A 6-4 TD-INT ratio will do that to you.

Our own Joe Burrow ranks fifth in the conference in ATVSQBPI. He’s an efficient runner, which helps him out. He doesn’t run a ton, but he makes the most of his chances. But the low completion percentage and low number of touchdowns (4), keep him below the SEC average. He’s got to find the rhythm that has eluded him this year.

Kentucky is having a surprisingly great year, but let me assure you, it is probably not because of Terry Wilson. He’s only thrown 110 passes this year against Power 5 defenses, though he’s done it at 63.64% clip. His job is to be efficient, run the ball occasionally, and give the ball to Benny Snell.

Drew Lock and Nick Fitzgerald are locked in a death spiral, separated by 0.01 points for the SEC basement in ATVSQBPI. These were two guys with expectations this season which they have both utterly failed to meet. Lock has never been the most accurate of passers, but 52.2% is not going to get it done. Fitzgerald saw that as a challenge, and has managed to post a sub 50% completion rate. Fitzgerald has some running ability which keeps his numbers slightly afloat, while Lock’s 4-6 TD-INT ratio is sinking whatever passing yardage he can compile.

Turning to some of the national guys, Kyler Murray has been every bit as impressive as Tua. OK, he’s thrown 3 picks to go with his 32 total touchdowns against Power 5 teams, but he also adds 451 yards rushing. He’s rushing for just under 7 yards/carry and it’s dragging his numbers down because his rating is so out of this world.

Ohio St does not regret giving the keys to Haskins. He’s flirting with a 70% completion rate against Power 5 teams while sporting a 25-5 TD-INT ratio. Sure, he can’t run, but he doesn’t really need to.

Gardner Minshew II is quietly averaging nearly 400 yards passing a game. The west coast has their Heisman candidate. He’s got a 70% completion rate, so it seems silly to say he’s not as efficient as Tua and Haskins, but his yards/attempt is simply much lower. That’s not a knock, that’s pointing out how great the other two have been.

And for all of the talk of Shea Patterson being a bit of a disappointment, he’s putting up a really good rating. It’s not all on his shoulders, but an 8.10 ATVSQBPI is nothing to sneeze at. He might not be carrying the team, but he’s doing his share of the lifting.

ATVSDPI

Team Yds/Pass Comp % Yds/Rush ATVSDPI
Team Yds/Pass Comp % Yds/Rush ATVSDPI
LSU 5.9 50.55% 3.72 3.74
Bama 5.83 50.94% 3.54 3.82
MSU 5.63 54.40% 3.2 3.93
Kentucky 5.93 53.57% 3.3 4.00
Florida 6.24 52.29% 4.21 4.12
Georgia 5.32 57.83% 4.23 4.29
Auburn 6.64 54.48% 3.34 4.30
SEC Average 6.87 57.21% 3.95 5.04
S. Carolina 6.71 62.20% 4.2 5.34
Vandy 7.3 63.53% 4.77 5.54
Mizzou 8.29 57.91% 3.55 5.96
Arkansas 8.31 62.63% 4.03 6.08
Tennessee 7.69 59.64% 4.78 6.36
Ole Miss 7.94 62.41% 4.96 6.45
Texas A&M 8.52 58.59% 3.45 6.70
Clemson 6.59 51.67% 2.24 3.29
Michigan 4.82 46.55% 2.87 3.44
Notre Dame 5.53 56.23% 3.88 4.19
Wazzu 6.5 58.20% 3.88 5.38
Oklahoma 7.46 60.64% 3.53 5.52
Ohio St 7.51 54.09% 4.35 5.64

As for the defenses, look at our beloved purple and gold. The Arandaconda defense is getting a boost by a whopping 19 turnovers. That likely isn’t sustainable, but ATVSDPI doesn’t measure sustainability, just performance.

But know who else is riding the turnover train to the top of the ratings? Bama. Bama also has a sub-4.00 average, and they have forced 17 turnovers. So it’s not a world’s bit of difference, and there is no accounting here for scheduling difficulty.

What is impressive is that Clanga is below 4.00 in the ATVSDPI, and they only have 9 takeaways, just over one a game. They are doing this almost entirely on stopping other teams from gaining yards. Their defense is incredible, and it’s a shame they get so little support from the offense.

You’ll note that SEC average is 5.04, but the teams outperforming that average are doing so by a wide margin. Auburn, at 4.34 DPI, is a full modified yard ahead of the next team, slightly below the average South Carolina at 5.34. You’ll also note LSU will have played every team in the top half of the conference by next week save Kentucky and themselves.

You didn’t need a metric to tell you Ole Miss’ defense is a horrorshow but Texas A&M coming in as even worse is a shock. The aggies allow 8.52 yards/pass against Power 5 offenses, and that is stunningly awful.

On the national level, the one thing that isn’t hype is the narrative about Michigan’s defense. It’s that good. The pass defense is the lesser of the two units, and they allow only a 47.55% completion rate. Clemson just nudges them out in the overall rankings due to the turnover margin, but the Wolverines are every bit as dominant as the Tigers from the other Death Valley.