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Stat Watch: Florida

Stat Watch takes a look at the Gators

Florida v Mississippi State Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Stat Watch hit well last week, noting based on the statistical profiles of both teams the passing game would be the difference and that LSU should have the advantage in both. They did, with the defense doing a very good job against Ole Miss’ vaunted passing game and LSU’s passing game hit another level against Ole Miss’ weak secondary. Now we shift to the next big test for LSU, against the Florida Gators, and how their statistical profile shapes up to LSU’s.

Last Season:

A note on these stats: The offensive and defensive S&P+ marks are calculated as adjusted scoring averages and for the situational ratings, above 100 is good and below 100 is bad. Links to an explanation on the various stats here, here and here:

Stat Watch

Data Florida LSU
Data Florida LSU
S&P+ Percentile 35.2% (86th) 83.2% (19th)
Off. S&P+ 23.7 (108th) 30.5 (42nd)
Off. Passing 94.3 (87th) 119.2 (16th)
Off. Rushing 104.3 (57th) 128.0 (7th)
Def. S&P+ 26.5 (54th) 21.1 (18th)
Def. Passing 110.0 (29th) 113.1 (20th)
Def. Rushing 115.1 (25th) 116.0 (24th)
FEI .081 (38th) .167 (15th)
F/+ -15.9% (85th) 33.5% (21st)

This Season:

Stat Watch

Data Florida LSU
Data Florida LSU
S&P+ Percentile 87.5% (19th) 88.6% (17th)
Off. S&P+ 32.7 (45th) 33.7 (38th)
Def. S&P+ 18.2 (13th) 18.6 (15th)
FEI .110 (27th) .261 (5th)
F/+ 37.3% (21st) 47.4% (10th

Florida’s stat profile is wildly divergent between this year and last. Last year’s Gators were terrible across the board, albeit slightly decent on defense. This year’s Gators are elite on defense and drastically improved, if still merely alright, on offense. The question becomes whether that’s a product of playing no real opponent with a pulse up to this point, or if it’s legit. If it is, this is a brutal test for LSU, going up against an elite defense on the road, but one where their slightly better offense, which has delivered against Miami and Auburn, could do enough. If it’s not legit, then LSU could pull off a difficult but comfortable in the end win. This is LSU-Florida though, and the good bet is it’ll be wild, dumb, and within one score no matter what.