FanPost

ATVSQBPI Discount (for brevity)

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

It takes a while to write those pieces and a big part of that is the charts. So I'm skipping the charts, and actually skipping most of the data period just to point to a few things I found noteworthy. Any other questions you have, leave 'em in the comments, I'll answer them if I can.

Fromm (5.63) and Tua (7.98) this week are examples of how much completion % can matter. The ypa and td/int ratio are nothing to write home about, and frankly they don't help their score out a ton, but their completion % made those offenses very effective. Some games you just gotta move the sticks, particularly in games like vs. LSU and vs. Kentucky (who has a nice ATVSDPI). I will note here that Tua probably takes an unfair (small) ding due to his INT, which helped Alabama's field position far more than it hurt it, and ATVSQBPI dings INTs for their average negative effect on field position. It's still correct NOT to adjust it because 1) no way for me to know how many other QBs should be given the same break 2) the formula is the formula, we don't change it solely to make it fit perception better 3) I'm lazy.

Burrow's season number (P5 = 5.63) continues to swoon because there's too many miserable games in just a 9 game sample. Florida (2.80), MSU (2.49), and Alabama (2.81) were flat-out miserable scores, and he only has one outstanding score against lesser teams to pick him up (Ole Miss = 13.76). Granted, he's seen a string of competent-or-better defenses. Arkansas and probably Rice are more similar to Ole Miss' defense, so he's got some time to put up big scores to bring his average back up to "decent," maybe even "good." Texas A&M will be very interesting. They score awfully on pass defense, but their run defense is rock solid. It will be telling for our passing offense how they are able to move the ball through the air, because the Aggies' resistance may be light there, but LSU will probably have to do it without help from the ground game. Can LSU sling the ball against a bad pass defense even when the running game isn't working? A&M will tell us. Passing when the ground game didn't work did not go well against Florida, MSU, or Bama but those teams are actually good against the pass. For those wondering, Burrow's P5 average is 11th in the SEC at this point. Or, 4th worst, if you're a glass half empty kind of person.

The LSU defense held Tua to basically half of his P5 average outside of LSU. Tua = 7.98 vs. LSU and a 15.32 average vs. teams not named LSU. That says something great imo about both LSU's defense and Tua. They basically split a guy's production in half with less than zero help from the offense to keep them fresh or help them into defending less possessions, thus giving Tua more chances. For Tua, LSU has been a very good defense, they threw the kitchen sink at him, and he still managed to be worth almost 8 yards of field position per play. Quick note: a QBPI score of 8 is kind of our arbitrary benchmark of "Yeah, I'm happy with that guy on my team." In general, you expect a defense like LSU's to hold a regular 8-range guy to a much more miserable score, so holding a 15+ guy to sub-8 is probably about the same thing. Maybe better.

LSU's DPI dropped from 1st in the SEC to third, back behind Alabama and Clanga, but that tends to happen to teams playing Alabama. The defense will really need to bring it the next 3 weeks to get back to 1st place, but it's hardly off the table.

The end.