clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

And The Valley Projects: 4-5-18

I don’t want to believe but I kinda have to.

This week we turn the calendar from March to April and with it comes a new methodology with projections. This week we held on to the standard promotion/relegation system for the the top eight national seeds, but the rest of the field was seeded by their accomplishments to date and where they were last week carried no weight.

Basically this is just one big ratings grab.

WatsonTiger Excel Productions, LLC.

The National Seeds The Top Eight Seeds

Stanford, Clemson, Texas Tech, Florida, Oregon State, Ole Miss, NC State, Florida State

The impossible has happened. Oregon State lost a weekend series.

This weekend’s 2-1 series loss to Utah in Salt Lake City is the Beavers’ first regular season (ayy lmao) loss since April 13-15th to Washington State in Pullman. But Oregon State still appears to be a very good baseball team, so while they don’t drop far it does open the top slot in the projections for the first time in a long time.

Conference mates Stanford takes command of the #1 overall seed, although I can be swayed to give that nod to any of the top five teams right now, I just slid each school up for now. Next week we’ll completely overhaul the top eight seeds and see what that give us.

The only real change to the Top 8 is that Kentucky departs after losing their first two games to Alabama. Florida State moves up to take their vacated slot.

The Regional Hosts

Wichita State, Arkansas, East Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky, Creighton

I decided to change the methodology for the seeding and it shows. For the most part, it is all the usual suspects, but the order has changed drastically.

Wichita State is looked upon favorably by the numbers, and the eye test doesn’t bring up many red flags either. What is interesting is that they just lost a series to East Carolina, and instead of dropping the Shockers back, it bolstered the Pirates up. With both teams in the same conference and one team likely to drop another series or two somewhere in the tough AAC I’m not sure how long this lack of distance between them is sustainable, but it is interesting to see from some mid-majors.

Speaking of, Creighton is still hanging on but with each week the numbers start liking them less. That season-opening loss to Northeastern and countless weather delays and cancellations just won’t go away. I’m not sure their conference slate is good enough to hold up, but we’ll see. Pro-tip: if you’re an LSU fan, you want them to fade along with LSU continuing to improve.

Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky fell back compared to last week after losing series to Ole Miss, Mizzou, and Alabama. But there is a fourth SEC team in the back eight, making their debut in my projections.

I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I can’t deny Georgia the “honor” any longer. They are 22-7 and have increasingly impressive wins over Alabama, South Carolina, and Texas A&M. They have Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Ole Miss looming on the horizon but for now, they are more than deserving of a spot in the back 8.

But What About The Tigahs?

This is honestly the most stable LSU has been in a long while. They are continuing to improve on a week to week basis, but not taking any leaps forward (yet). But I have a big feeling something is going to change this weekend against A&M. Fun times.

Regional Of Death Of The Week

Chapel Hill Regional: North Carolina, Mizzou, Texas A&M, Wagner.

Two SEC schools and a perennial ACC power. Easy.

See you all next week for a completely revamped projections. Stay humble, and remember: